Consulta: subjectFacets:"Stochastic analysis"
Registros recuperados: 6
Data/hora: 09/06/2024 14:43:26

Analysis of Commodity Program Adjustments for U.S. Rice in Stochastic Framework
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chavez,   Eddie C.; Wailes,   Eric J.
Potential adjustments in U.S. commodity program for rice are evaluated in this paper using stochastic analysis in a global modeling framework. Corresponding threshold and loss-compensatory increases in target price and loan rates are determined with assumed outright and gradual elimination of direct payments. Results show that if direct payments (DP) are eliminated in 2012, a 23% increase in both the target price (TP) and loan rate (LR) triggers counter-cyclical payments (CCP) 80% of the time; and it will take an increase of 48% in TP and LR to generate CCP enough to compensate for the loss in total DP. If DP is gradually removed over 5 years, the trigger and compensatory increases in TP and LR are 41% and 46%, respectively. Furthermore, if DP is...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: U.S. commodity program; Threshold and loss-compensatory increases; Stochastic analysis; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Q18.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119754

ANALYSIS OF U.S. RICE POLICY IN A GLOBAL STOCHASTIC FRAMEWORK
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chavez,   Eddie C.; Wailes,   Eric J.
Replaced with revised version of paper 04/13/11.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Government payments; Stochastic analysis; Deterministic analysis; Rice trade; Empirical distribution; Arkansas Global Rice Model; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Q11; Q17.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98846

MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR INDONESIAN SMALL-HOLDER RUBBER PRODUCTION IN SOUTH SUMATRA: A BIOECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Purnamasari,   Ririn S.; Cacho,   Oscar J.; Simmons,   Phil.
A simplified version of the BEAM Rubber Agroforestry Model is embedded in a dynamic economic model to examine the impact of uncertainty about prices and climate on decision variables.  Solutions, in terms of optimal levels for decision variables are found using a Monte Carlo stochastic framework.  These solutions were used to derive risk-efficient frontiers corresponding to different levels of the decision variables.  The results underline the importance of including uncertainty in dynamic bioeconomic systems since profits under uncertainty turned out to be quite different from those obtained with prices and climate assumed to be constant.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Bioeconomics; Stochastic analysis; Rubber; Indonesia; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12936

Analysis of Commodity Program Adjustments for U.S. Rice in Stochastic Framework
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chavez,   Eddie C.; Wailes,   Eric J.
Potential adjustments in U.S. commodity program for rice are evaluated in this paper using stochastic analysis in a global modeling framework. Corresponding threshold and loss-compensatory increases in target price and loan rates are determined with assumed outright and gradual elimination of direct payments. Results show that if direct payments (DP) are eliminated in 2012, a 23% increase in both the target price (TP) and loan rate (LR) triggers counter-cyclical payments (CCP) 80% of the time; and it will take an increase of 48% in TP and LR to generate CCP enough to compensate for the loss in total DP. If DP is gradually removed over 5 years, the trigger and compensatory increases in TP and LR are 41% and 46%, respectively. Furthermore, if DP is...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: U.S. commodity program; Threshold and loss-compensatory increases; Stochastic analysis; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Q18.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119772

WHY STOCHASTICS MATTER: ANALYZING FARM AND BIOFUEL POLICIES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Westhoff,   Patrick C.; Brown,   Scott; Binfield,   Julian C.R.
Standard deterministic analysis of agricultural and biofuel policies can yield incomplete or misleading results. Stochastic analysis is especially important when policies have asymmetric effects and when there is intrinsic interest in uncommon events or the distribution of possible outcomes.  The paper examines four recent cases where a stochastic approach was critical to a complete and balanced examination of important US policy issues. In each case, a stochastic model of the US agricultural and biofuel sectors was used to estimate 500 sets of possible market outcomes for the 2007- 2016 period.  Changes in support levels, a proposed revenue-based program, possible World Trade Organization limits on internal support measures, and biofuel use mandates are...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Biofuels; Stochastic analysis; Structural model; Agricultural and Food Policy; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6601

Farmer management of production risk on degraded lands: the role of wheat genetic diversity in Tigray Region, Ethiopia
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Di Falco,   Salvatore; Chavas,   Jean-Paul; Smale,   Melinda.
This paper investigates the effects of wheat genetic diversity and land degradation on risk and agricultural productivity in less favored production environments of a developing agricultural economy. Drawing production data from household survey conducted in the highlands of Ethiopia, we estimate a stochastic production function to evaluate the effects of variety richness, land degradation, and their interaction on the mean and the variance of wheat yield. Ethiopia is a centre of diversity for durum wheat and farmers manage complex variety mixtures on multiple plots. Econometric evidence shows that variety richness increases farm productivity. Variety richness also reduces yield variability but only for high levels of genetic diversity. Simulations with...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Land degradation; Wheat production; Productivity; Risk; Genetic diversity; Household surveys; Biodiversity; Stochastic analysis; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55417