Consulta: subjectFacets:"Risk"
Registros recuperados: 284
Data/hora: 03/06/2024 18:52:28

Modelación del riesgo de inundaciones en el estado de Tabasco.
Provedor de dados: 32
Autores: Reyes Olvera, Ana Laura.
Los problemas ocasionados por las inundaciones en México se han incrementado de manera considerable, específicamente en el estado de Tabasco las pérdidas por inundaciones son preocupantes. Por esta razón resulta de gran interés la construcción de un índice que mida el riesgo de inundación en una área determinada. En el presnte trabajo se construye un indicador del riesgo de inundación en el estado de Tabasco, para esto se consideran los siguientes tres componentes: la vulnerabilidad, el costo y el peligro. Con el componente de vulnerabilidad se mide que tan susceptible es el área de interés frente a una inundación y para esto se toma en cuenta tanto elementos  sociales como naturales, en el primero se considera la disposición de los servicios con los que...
Palavras-chave: Indice de riesgo; Vulnerabilidad; Costo; Peligro; Valores extremos; Risk index; Vulnerability; Cost; Risk; Extreme values; Estadística; Maestría.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/770

Utilización de opciones reales en proyectos de inversión agrícola
Provedor de dados: 32
Autores: Domínguez Alonso, Roberto.
Las técnicas  tradicionales para evaluar alternativas de inversión no capturan apropiadamente la incertidumbre asociada al proyecto, así como tampoco permiten considerar  la flexibilidad gerencial en el proceso de toma de decisiones, por ello, han surgido instrumentos y metodologías complementarios que permiten administrar el riesgo, uno de estos instrumentos son las Opciones Reales, el cual es una analogía a las opciones financiera. En esta investigación se aplica esta metodología a  dos casos de estudio. El primero se trata de un proyecto de inversión para el establecimiento de una planta empacadora de camarón en el sur de Sonora, en el que existe  incertidumbre debido al riesgo tecnológico. El segundo se trata de un proyecto de inversión para el cultivo...
Tipo: Tesis
Palavras-chave: Incertidumbre; Flexibilidad gerencial; Opciones reales; Proyecto de inversión; Riesgo; Doctorado; Economía; Uncertainty; Managerial flexibility; Real options; Investment project; Risk.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/1324

Valores críticos para la evaluación de una empresa que inicia (START-UP) con opciones reales de crecimiento.
Provedor de dados: 32
Autores: Cobián Romero, Lizbeth.
Una empresa innovadora que inicia en el mercado es conocida en la literatura como Start-Up; esté tipo de firmas al ser evaluadas con los métodos tradicionales (tasa interna de retorno, TIR; valor actual neto, VAN y relación benéfico-costo, B/C)  son generalmente rechazadas debido a que no cuentan con información económico-financiera suficiente. El objetivo de éste trabajo fue determinar si la incorporación de las metodologías  Opciones Reales  y  Valores Críticos a la evaluación tradicional agregan valor a empresas Start-Up. El caso que se trató fue el de una planta de bioplásticos. Para calcular la opción de compra al aumentar la producción se utilizó el método de Black-Scholes, que consiste en una ecuación y cinco variables. Para calcular el beneficio...
Palavras-chave: Black-Scholes; Evaluación de proyectos; Bioplástico; Riesgo; Incertidumbre; Project evaluation; Bioplastic; Risk; Uncertainty; Maestría; Economía.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/688

Eficiencia de la política de cobertura de precios de maíz en México.
Provedor de dados: 32
Autores: García Juárez, José de Jesús.
El objetivo de este trabajo es evaluar la eficiencia de las coberturas de precios de maíz blanco operadas por ASERCA. Para el estudio, se utiliza el análisis de cointegración de S. Johansen que consiste en probar la existencia de cointegración entre las variables de series de tiempo, en este caso: precios al mayoreo de maíz blanco, precio a futuro de maíz amarillo cotizado en la Bolsa de Futuros de Chicago (CBOT) y tipo de cambio peso-dólar; esta variable en particular, porque al adquirir una cobertura, existe también un riesgo cambiario dado que tanto la adquisición como la liquidación de las coberturas son realizadas en dólares. Los resultados indican que los precios de maíz al mayoreo de las centrales de abasto de Sinaloa, Jalisco, Estado de México,...
Palavras-chave: ASERCA; Cointegración; Riesgo; Serie de tiempo; Cointegration; Risk; Time series; Maestría; Economía.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/421

Eficiencia de la política de cobertura de precios de maíz en México.
Provedor de dados: 32
Autores: García Juárez, José de Jesús.
El objetivo de este trabajo es evaluar la eficiencia de las coberturas de precios de maíz blanco operadas por ASERCA. Para el estudio, se utiliza el análisis de cointegración de S. Johansen que consiste en probar la existencia de cointegración entre las variables de series de tiempo, en este caso: precios al mayoreo de maíz blanco, precio a futuro de maíz amarillo cotizado en la Bolsa de Futuros de Chicago (CBOT) y tipo de cambio peso-dólar; esta variable en particular, porque al adquirir una cobertura, existe también un riesgo cambiario dado que tanto la adquisición como la liquidación de las coberturas son realizadas en dólares. Los resultados indican que los precios de maíz al mayoreo de las centrales de abasto de Sinaloa, Jalisco, Estado de México,...
Palavras-chave: ASERCA; Cointegración; Riesgo; Serie de tiempo; Cointegration; Risk; Time series; Maestría; Economía.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/421

Modelación del riesgo de inundaciones en el estado de Tabasco.
Provedor de dados: 32
Autores: Reyes Olvera, Ana Laura.
Los problemas ocasionados por las inundaciones en México se han incrementado de manera considerable, específicamente en el estado de Tabasco las pérdidas por inundaciones son preocupantes. Por esta razón resulta de gran interés la construcción de un índice que mida el riesgo de inundación en una área determinada. En el presnte trabajo se construye un indicador del riesgo de inundación en el estado de Tabasco, para esto se consideran los siguientes tres componentes: la vulnerabilidad, el costo y el peligro. Con el componente de vulnerabilidad se mide que tan susceptible es el área de interés frente a una inundación y para esto se toma en cuenta tanto elementos  sociales como naturales, en el primero se considera la disposición de los servicios con los que...
Palavras-chave: Indice de riesgo; Vulnerabilidad; Costo; Peligro; Valores extremos; Risk index; Vulnerability; Cost; Risk; Extreme values; Estadística; Maestría.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/770

La diversidad de actividades económicas de los grupos domésticos rurales en la valoración del riesgo por parte de las microfinancieras.
Provedor de dados: 32
Autores: Sánchez González, Carmen Lissette.
El microcrédito  es un servicio que las personas de bajos ingresos utilizan  para contrarrestar su condición de pobreza ya que, cuando se encuentra a su alcance,  pueden poner en marcha proyectos y/o actividades de tipo económico que contribuyen a mejorar sus ingresos. A pesar de que la importante función del microcrédito ha sido objeto de  amplio reconocimiento, incluso por parte  de organismos nacionales e internacionales, la cobertura en la atención de clientes sigue siendo muy limitada. La falta de cobertura, por parte de las Instituciones Microfinancieras (IMF), resulta particularmente aguda en el caso del sector rural como resultado de las complejas condiciones del mismo y de la restringida capacidad de las instituciones microfinancieras.  No...
Palavras-chave: Actividades económicas; Riesgo; Microcrédito; Microfinanzas; Microfinancieras; Economical activities; Risk; Microcredit; Micro financial; Economía; Maestría; Economics.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/663

Sustainable Small-Scale Agriculture in Semi-Arid Environments
Provedor de dados: 7
Autores: Spielmann, Katherine A; Arizona State University; kate.spielmann@asu.edu; Nelson, Margaret; Arizona State University; mnelson@asu.edu; Ingram, Scott; Arizona State University; singram@asu.edu; Peeples, Matthew A; Arizona State University; Matthew.Peeples@asu.edu.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports
Palavras-chave: Adaptive strategy; Archaeology; Climate; Risk; Semi-arid environments; Small-scale farming; U.S. Southwest.
Ano: 2011

Collective action and the risk of ecosystem regime shifts: insights from a laboratory experiment
Provedor de dados: 7
Autores: Schill, Caroline; The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University; caroline.schill@beijer.kva.se; Lindahl, Therese; The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University; therese.lindahl@beijer.kva.se.
Ecosystems can undergo regime shifts that potentially lead to a substantial decrease in the availability of provisioning ecosystem services. Recent research suggests that the frequency and intensity of regime shifts increase with growing anthropogenic pressure, so understanding the underlying social-ecological dynamics is crucial, particularly in contexts where livelihoods depend heavily on local ecosystem services. In such settings, ecosystem services are often derived from common-pool resources. The limited capacity to predict regime shifts is a major challenge for common-pool resource management, as well as for systematic empirical analysis of individual and group behavior, because of the need for extensive preshift and postshift data. Unsurprisingly,...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports
Palavras-chave: Common-pool resources; Cooperation; Ecological dynamics; Laboratory experiments; Regime shifts; Risk; Social-ecological systems; Thresholds; Uncertainty.
Ano: 2015

Perspectives on Resilience to Disasters across Sectors and Cultures
Provedor de dados: 7
Autores: Walker, Brian; CSIRO Ecosystem Science, Australia; Brian.Walker@csiro.au; Westley, Frances; Institute for Complexity and Innovation; fwestley@uwaterloo.ca.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Insight
Palavras-chave: Disasters; Resilience; Risk.
Ano: 2011

From Risk Assessment to Knowledge Mapping:  Science, Precaution, and Participation in Disease Ecology
Provedor de dados: 7
Autores: Stirling, Andy C.; Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Sussex; a.c.stirling@sussex.ac.uk; Scoones, Ian; Institute for Development Studies, University of Sussex; i.scoones@ids.ac.uk.
Governance of infectious disease risks requires understanding of often indeterminate interactions between diverse, complex, open, and dynamic human and natural systems. In the face of these challenges, worldwide policy making affords disproportionate status to &amp;#8220; science-based&amp;#8221;  risk-assessment methods. These reduce multiple, complex dimensions to simple quantitative parameters of &amp;#8220;outcomes&amp;#8221; and &amp;#8220;probabilities,&amp;#8221;  and then re-aggregate across diverse metrics, contexts, and perspectives to yield a single ostensibly definitive picture of risk. In contrast, more precautionary or participatory approaches are routinely portrayed as less rigorous, complete, or robust. Yet, although conventional...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports
Palavras-chave: Ambiguity; Ignorance; Participation; Precaution; Risk; Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009

Introduction to the Special Feature: Adaptive Management - Scientifically Sound, Socially Challenged?
Provedor de dados: 7
Autores: Johnson, Barry L; USGS, Upper Midwest Enviromental Sciences Center; barry_johnson@usgs.gov.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports
Palavras-chave: Adaptive management; Decision making; Ecosystem management; Experimentation; Flexibility; Implementation; Management agencies; Resources; Risk; Social aspects; Special feature; Stakeholders.
Ano: 1999

Avoiding Environmental Catastrophes: Varieties of Principled Precaution
Provedor de dados: 7
Autores: Johnson, Alan R; Clemson University; Alanj@Clemson.edu.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis
Palavras-chave: Adaptive management; Aldo Leopold; Ambiguity; Blaise Pascal; Daniel Ellsberg; Decision theory; Future generations; Gifford Pinchot; Intelligent tinkering; Precautionary principle; Resilience; Risk; Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012

Deciding Where to Burn: Stakeholder Priorities for Prescribed Burning of a Fire-Dependent Ecosystem
Provedor de dados: 7
Autores: Costanza, Jennifer K.; University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; currently: North Carolina State University; jennifer_costanza@ncsu.edu; Moody, Aaron; University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; aaronm@email.unc.edu.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports
Palavras-chave: Collaborative conservation; Fire management; Longleaf pine; Management liability; Risk; Wildfire; Wildland-urban interface.
Ano: 2011

Uncertainty as Information: Narrowing the Science-policy Gap
Provedor de dados: 7
Autores: Bradshaw, G. A.; National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) and  USDA Forest S; bradshaw@nceas.ucsb.edu; Borchers, Jeffrey G; Department of Forest Science, Oregon State University; borcherj@ucs.orst.edu.
Conflict and indecision are hallmarks of environmental policy formulation. Some argue that the requisite information and certainty fall short of scientific standards for decision making; others argue that science is not the issue and that indecisiveness reflects a lack of political willpower. One of the most difficult aspects of translating science into policy is scientific uncertainty. Whereas scientists are familiar with uncertainty and complexity, the public and policy makers often seek certainty and deterministic solutions. We assert that environmental policy is most effective if scientific uncertainty is incorporated into a rigorous decision-theoretic framework as knowledge, not ignorance. The policies that best utilize scientific findings are defined...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports
Palavras-chave: Adaptive management; Decision making; Environmental policy; Global climate change; Monitoring; Risk; Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000

Spatial Modeling of Risk in Natural Resource Management
Provedor de dados: 7
Autores: Jones, Peter; CIAT (International Center for Tropical Agriculture); p.jones@cgiar.org; Thornton, Philip K; International Livestock Research Institute; P.Thornton@cgiar.org.
Making decisions in natural resource management involves an understanding of the risk and uncertainty of the outcomes, such as crop failure or cattle starvation, and of the normal spread of the expected production. Hedging against poor outcomes often means lack of investment and slow adoption of new methods. At the household level, production instability can have serious effects on income and food security. At the national level, it can have social and economic impacts that may affect all sectors of society. Crop models such as CERES-Maize are excellent tools for assessing weather-related production variability. WATBAL is a water balance model that can provide robust estimates of the potential growing days for a pasture. These models require large...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports
Palavras-chave: Crop modeling; Dryland agriculture; Global change; Global Circulation Model; Maize; Markov models; MarkSim; Natural resource management; Risk; Southern Africa; Spatial modeling; Weather simulation.
Ano: 2002

Driblando riscos no campo.
Provedor de dados: 14
Autores: LOPES, M. A.
Gestão de riscos no campo é tema estratégico para o Brasil, uma vez que grande parte das nossas atividades agropecuárias é desenvolvida a céu aberto, exposta a todo tipo de incertezas. Tais pressões possuem efeitos multiplicadores que se propagam muito além das lavouras e criações, devido a impactos na renda, no abastecimento, na redução de empregos e na arrecadação de impostos. Por isso, falhas na gestão de riscos no campo podem levar a severos prejuízos na produção de bens que afetam muitos outros componentes da economia, além de agravar situações de pobreza e exclusão nas regiões mais pobres. Felizmente o Brasil está dando passos sólidos nessa direção. Para superar essa dificuldade, a Embrapa mobilizou uma grande rede de parceiros e integrou volumes...
Tipo: Artigo de divulgação na mídia (INFOTECA-E)
Palavras-chave: Zoneamento Agrícola de Risco Climático (Zarc); Risco; Zoneamento Agrícola; Zoneamento Climático; Análise de Risco; Risco Climático; Risk; Agricultural zoning; Risk analysis.
Ano: 2019
URL: http://www.infoteca.cnptia.embrapa.br/infoteca/handle/doc/1123781

Variabilite spatiale de l'interaction entre gestion de la fertilie et risque climatique.
Provedor de dados: 14
Autores: AFFHOLDER, F.; SILVA, F. A. M. da.
bitstream/CPAC-2009/24350/1/p2002_78.pdf
Tipo: Fôlder / Folheto / Cartilha (INFOTECA-E)
Palavras-chave: ECLIMA200.; Climatologia; Cerrado; Risco; Variação Sazonal.; Climate; Climatology; Risk; Seasonal variation.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://www.infoteca.cnptia.embrapa.br/infoteca/handle/doc/567650

Avaliacao dos riscos agroclimaticos das pastagens sobre um latossolo no cerrado brasileiro.
Provedor de dados: 14
Autores: BRUNET, D.; SILVA, A. F. M. da.
bitstream/CPAC-2009/24433/1/p2003_23.pdf
Tipo: Fôlder / Folheto / Cartilha (INFOTECA-E)
Palavras-chave: ECLIMA200; Water availability; Soil pastures.; Balanço Hídrico; Cerrado; Clima; Disponibilidade de Água; Pastagem; Risco; Solo.; Climate; Risk; Water balance.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://www.infoteca.cnptia.embrapa.br/infoteca/handle/doc/566161

Le risque sanitaire ciguatérique en Polynésie française : étude des représentations sociales auprès de la population tahitienne
Provedor de dados: 5
Autores: Tchekemian, Anthony.
This social science study focuses on the risk from ciguatera that is affecting the Polynesians' health. Compared to the global population exposure to ciguatera health risks, the situation of French Polynesia is particularly worrisome, in view of the number of people poisoned each year. Exposure to this risk depends directly on the marine ecosystem, but also on lifestyles and individual responsibilities. This study focuses on the Tahitians' representations of the ciguatera risk, that is, their knowledge, awareness, and acceptance of the health risk resulting from the consumption of fish likely to be infected. It provides a better understanding of the cultural, social, and economic factors that explain and justify the consumption of potentially at-risk fish.
Tipo: Text
Palavras-chave: Ciguatera; Representations; Natural resources; Risk; Health; Tahiti.
Ano: 2018
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00660/77229/78663.pdf

Recherche et dosage de quelques antiseptiques dans les semi-conserves de poisson.
Provedor de dados: 5
Autores: Fougeras Lavergnolle, Jean.
Tipo: Text
Palavras-chave: Risk; Antiseptic; Preserve; Proportion; Research; Risques; Antiseptiques; Conservation; Dosage; Recherche.
Ano: 1972
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/1972/publication-2070.pdf

A Methodology and Tool for Mapping the Risk of Cumulative Effects on Benthic Habitats
Provedor de dados: 5
Autores: Quemmerais-amice, Frédéric; Barrere, Julien; La Rivière, Marie; Contin, Gabriel; Bailly, Denis.
The implementation of the European integrated marine policy poses many scientific challenges. Among them, the knowledge and understanding of interactions between anthropogenic pressures and ecological components is an important issue, particularly to help define Good Environmental Status, environmental targets and monitoring programs of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (2008, MSFD). Assessment of cumulative effects of different pressures is a particularly complex issue requiring modeling tools and methods, as well as accurate data sets on human activities, anthropogenic pressures and ecological components. The results of these assessments are also uncertain and highly dependent on the calculation methods and assumptions, as well as on the data sets...
Tipo: Text
Palavras-chave: Cumulative effects assessment; Human activities; Anthropogenic pressures; Benthic habitats; Risk; Marine Strategy Framework Directive.
Ano: 2020
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00658/77028/78310.pdf

Infectious diseases in oyster aquaculture require a new integrated approach
Provedor de dados: 5
Autores: Pernet, Fabrice; Lupo, Coralie; Bacher, Cedric; Whittington, Richard J.
Emerging diseases pose a recurrent threat to bivalve aquaculture. Recently, massive mortality events in the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas associated with the detection of a microvariant of the ostreid herpesvirus 1 (OsHV-1 µVar) have been reported in Europe, Australia and New Zealand. Although the spread of disease is often viewed as a governance failure, we suggest that the development of protective measures for bivalve farming is presently held back by the lack of key scientific knowledge. In this paper, we explore the case for an integrated approach to study the management of bivalve disease, using OsHV-1 as a case study. Reconsidering the key issues by incorporating multidisciplinary science could provide a holistic under-standing of OsHV-1 and...
Tipo: Text
Palavras-chave: Bivalve; Disease management; Epidemiology; Multidisciplinary; Risk.
Ano: 2016
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00314/42537/41912.pdf

Traitement à haute température des huîtres infectées par l’ostreid herpesvirus 1 (OsHV-1). TEMPO - Rapport 2016
Provedor de dados: 5
Autores: Pernet, Fabrice.
Le naissain d’huître creuse Crassostrea gigas est touché chaque année depuis 2008 par des mortalités causées par un microvariant de l’ostreid herpesvirus 1 (OsHV-1 μVar). Plusieurs études montrent que ces évènements de mortalité se produisent préférentiellement lorsque la température de l’eau est comprise entre 16°C et 24°C. Par conséquent, une exposition rapide des huîtres infectées par OsHV-1 à des températures supérieures à 24°C pourrait limiter les mortalités causées par le virus. Il est proposé de (1) vérifier l’hypothèse selon laquelle l’exposition à haute température réduit la mortalité des huîtres infectées par OsHV-1, et (2) déterminer si les animaux qui ont survécu suite à l’infection par OsHV-1 et au traitement thermique sont...
Tipo: Text
Palavras-chave: Epidémiologie; Huître; OsHV-1; Risque; Survie; Température; Epidemiology; Oysters; OsHV-1; Risk; Survival; Temperature.
Ano: 2017
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00434/54574/55953.pdf

Cultural practices and risk of shellfish pathogen exchanges : the oyster aquaculture in France
Provedor de dados: 5
Autores: Miossec, Laurence; Girard, Sophie; Czerwinski, N.
The first national census concerning shellfish culture in France was carried out in 2002. The main purpose was to provide accurate and comprehensive information on the number and structure of the companies using an in depth review of production factors (leases, plants, equipment's, labour and qualifications), and a survey of cultural practices up to the market level. Moreover, the census aimed to quantify the bivalve sales dedicated to consumption and to measure the livestock transfers among rearing shellfish production areas at different developmental stages: spat, intermediate products and fully grown marketable products. The French oyster production reached 109 000 metric tons in 2001. The main production was observed in Poitou-Charentes region...
Tipo: Text
Palavras-chave: Risk; Pathogens; Exotic species; Introduction; Cultural practices; Transfert; France; Oyster aquaculture.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2005/acte-3316.pdf

Les risques conchylicoles en Baie de Quiberon. Deuxième partie : le risque de prédation sur l’huître creuse Crassostrea gigas. Rapport final du projet Risco 2010-2013
Provedor de dados: 5
Autores: Mazurie, Joseph; Stanisiere, Jean-yves; Bouget, Jean-francois; Langlade, Aime; Leclerc, Emilie; Quinsat, Kevin; Herve, Gilles; Augustin, Jean-marie; Ehrhold, Axel; Sinquin, Jean-marc; Meidi-deviarni, Ika; Goubert, Evelyne; Cochet, Helene; Dreano, Alain.
This study (“Risco”), implicating both industry, socio-economic experts and biologists, was funded by the Regional Council of Brittany, for 3 years (2010-2012), to investigate about the causes of oysters (Crassostrea gigas) mortalities in the bay of Quiberon (South Brittany, France). The protocol including both a sonar and video visualization of the bottom, and a monthly survey of 15 experimental oyster structures, allowed to assess the risk due to predation. A clear spatial distribution of the predatory effect was evidenced, with starfish (Asterias rubens and Marthasterias glacialis) predominating in the North-East sector, and boring snails (Ocenebra erinacea and Pterophora inornata) in the South-Center area.. The main mortalities from these predators...
Tipo: Text
Palavras-chave: Baie de Quiberon; Huître; Crassostrea gigas; Risque; Mortalité; Prédation; Étoiles de mer; Bigorneaux perceurs; Risco; Bay of Quiberon; Oyster; Crassostrea gigas; Risk; Mortality; Predation; Starfish; Oyster drills; Risco.
Ano: 2013
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00180/29130/27534.pdf

How to Evaluate and Interpret a Scientific Article About Therapy Or Therapeutic Procedures?
Provedor de dados: 77
Autores: Otzen,Tamara; Manterola,Carlos; García-Domínguez,Maricela.
Regardless of the subject area and design used, it has been verified that between 40% and 60% of the studies published in biomedical journals are articles about therapy or therapeutic procedures (TP). Anyone writing a manuscript related to therapy or TP or reading an article of this type must demand at the very least a clear, precise and concise objective with respect to the research conducted, explicit mention of the design used with the respective inherent methodological details, and the mention and execution of statistical tools and the measures of association, or at least the numbers needed to calculate these values. The aim of this manuscript is to present a synthesis of the fundamental elements for the correct writing, reading and assessment of such...
Tipo: Journal article
Palavras-chave: Therapeutics; Therapy; Subheading; Risk; Clinical Trial; Publication Type; Cohort Studies; Meta-Analysis; Publication Type.
Ano: 2017
URL: http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0717-95022017000200061

Default and Inference Options: Use in Recurrent and Ordinary Risk Decisions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wilson,   James D.
How "default options" should be used in health risk assessment divides the risk analysis profession. Some argue that these should be "hard": set by policy, generally biased to be "health protective" and requiring a substantial body of evidence to replace by decision-specific alternatives. Others argue that they should be science-based, identified by consensus of the professional community, replaced by whatever decision-specific information may be available to the analyst. This paper shows that both positions have validity, and that both are incomplete. Each kind of construct has a useful role to play, but in different kinds of decisions. Because the two are different, we suggest giving them different names, "default option" being assigned to the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk; Regulation; Decision making; Default options; EPA; FDA; Science; Policy; Public participation; Risk analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10712

Live and Feeder Cattle Options Markets: Returns, Risk, and Volatility Forecasting
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Brittain,   Lee; Garcia,   Philip; Irwin,   Scott H.
The paper examines empirical returns from holding thirty- and ninety-day call and put positions, and the forecasting performance of implied volatility in the live and feeder cattle options markets. In both markets, implied volatility is an upwardly biased and inefficient predictor of realized volatility, with bias most prominent in live cattle. While significant returns exist holding several market positions, most strategies are strongly affected by a drift in futures market prices. However, the returns from selling live cattle puts are persistent, and evidence from straddle returns identifies that the market overprices volatility. This overpricing is consistent with a short-term risk premium whose effect is magnified by extreme changes in market conditions.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Live cattle; Feeder cattle; Options; Returns; Risk; Volatility forecasting; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53038

Forward Hedging Under Price and Production Risk of Wheat
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Xing,   Liu; Pietola,   Kyosti.
This paper estimates optimal hedging ratios for a Finnish spring wheat producer under price and yield risk. The forward contract available for hedging fixes the price and quantity at the time of sowing for a delivery at harvest. Autoregressive models are used to obtain point forecasts for the conditional mean price and price volatility at harvest. Expected yield and yield volatility are estimated from the field experiment data. A range of coefficients of absolute risk aversion are used in the computations. The results suggest that yield volatility is large and it dominates the price volatility in the optimal hedging decisions of the Finnish wheat producers. Nevertheless, a potential for large negative correlation between the price and the yield decreases...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Hedging ratio; Risk; Forward contract; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Q14.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24467

Are Our Agricultural Risk Management Tools Adequate for a New Era?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Barnett,   Barry J.; Coble,   Keith H.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk; Commodity programs; Insurance; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; D80; G11; Q18.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94700

Complexity and Obsolete Data Concepts: Canadian Farm Policy, and the Changing Structure of Agriculture
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Freshwater,   David.
Agricultural data systems remain based upon now obsolete concepts. In particular, the "full-time, family farm" is still organizing concepts for much of the farm data system, and for agricultural policies. Yet farming has clearly bifurcated into: a relatively small number of large farms that produce the majority of the food and fiber; and a large number of small part-time farms that depend mainly on off-farm income for household well-being. Both types are family farms, but they are not the family farms of the past. It is broadly recognized that large farms pose complex challenges for data collection and policy. But small farms are also complex. While small farms may not account for much production they are important for land use issues and for maintaining...
Tipo: Working Paper
Palavras-chave: Data concepts; Farm policy; Agricultural policy; Canada; Data collection; Risk; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119473

Optimal Nitrogen Fertilization Rates in Winter Wheat Production as Affected by Risk, Disease, and Nitrogen Source
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Roberts,   Roland K.; Walters,   Jeremy T.; Larson,   James A.; English,   Burton C.; Howard,   Donald D.
Interactions among the nitrogen (N) fertilization rate, N source, and disease severity can affect mean yield and yield in conservation tillage wheat production.  A Just-Pope model was used to evaluate the effects of N rate, N source, and disease on the spring N fertilization decision.  Ammonium nitrate (AN) was the utility-maximizing N source, regardless of risk preferences.  The net-return-maximizing AN rate was 92 lb N/acre, providing $0.52/acre higher net returns than the best alternative N source (urea).  If a farmer could anticipate a higher-than-average Take-All Root Rot infection, the difference in optimal net returns between AN and urea would increase to $35.11/acre.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Certainty equivalent; Blume-Blotch; Nitrogen fertilizer; Nitrogen source; Risk; Take-All; Winter wheat; D21; D81; Q12.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43444

More than Mean Effects: Modeling the Effect of Climate on the Higher Order Moments of Crop Yields
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tack,   Jesse B.; Harri,   Ardian; Coble,   Keith H.
The objective of this article is to propose the use of moment functions and maximum entropy techniques as a flexible way to estimate conditional crop yield distributions. We present a moment based model that extends previous approaches in several dimensions, and can be easily estimated using standard econometric estimators. Upon identification of the yield moments under a variety of climate and irrigation regimes, we utilize maximum entropy techniques to analyze the distributional impacts from switching regimes. We consider the case of Arkansas, Mississippi, and Texas upland cotton to demonstrate how climate and irrigation affect the shape of the yield distribution, and compare our findings to other moment based approaches. We empirically illustrate...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Climate change; Moments; Entropy; Yield; Cotton; Crop Production/Industries; Production Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123330

An Application of Mixed Logit Estimation in the Analysis of Producers’ Stated Preferences
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kipperberg,   Gorm; Bond,   Craig A.; Hoag,   Dana L.
This paper analyzes Colorado Corn producers’ preferences over both private- and environmental public-good production system attributes. Current production practices are characterized by intensive water and chemical use, resulting in non-point source pollution to water bodies as well as soil erosion problems. Data from a stated preference survey are employed to analyze key attributes of experimentally configured irrigation systems, proposed as alternatives to current practices. Panel mixed logit estimations find positive preferences for profit, risk reduction, and, importantly, systems with less environmental impact in terms of nitrate leaching and soil erosion. The results also find presence of significant preference heterogeneity and a complementary...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Agricultural production; Profit-maximization; Environment; Mixed logit; Stated preference; Attribute part-worth; Nitrate leaching; Soil erosion; Risk; Crop Production/Industries; C10; D62; Q12; Q15; Q51.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108719

Case Studies of Strategic Alliances in U.S. Beef Production
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gillespie,   Jeffrey M.; Bu,   Angel; Boucher,   Robert W.; Choi,   Won-Jun.
Calf marketing, commercial beef carcass, and natural/implant-free beef strategic alliances were examined via case study to determine alliance structure and whether each addressed risk, transaction costs, capital availability, and other concerns. All alliances were structured differently through vertical or horizontal coordination, and each had been established within the past 12 years. Alliance administrators reported that an advantage to cow-calf producers was higher cattle prices received relative to producers outside the alliances. The alliances reduced transaction costs and increased information flow among segments. Alliances did not specifically address risk or increased access to capital for technology adoption or expansion purposes.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Cattle industry; Industry structure; Risk; Strategic alliances; Transaction costs; Agribusiness; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/62278

Current Issues in Crop Insurance (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Anderson,   Richard.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Risk; Risk Management Agency; Risk and Uncertainty; D81.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48909

An exploration of the potential benefits of integrated pest management systems and the use of insect resistant potatoes to control the Guatemalan Tuber Moth (Tecia solanivora Povolny) in Ventaquemada, Colombia
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Falck-Zepeda,   Jose Benjamin; Barreto-Triana,   Nancy; Baquero-Haeberlin,   Irma; Espitia-Malagon,   Eduardo; Fierro-Guzman,   Humberto; Lopez,   Nancy.
CORPOICA and IFPRI implemented a research project in Ventaquemada, Colombia. The project’s goal was to asses the benefits of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) practices and the potential of Genetically Modified insect resistant (Bt) potatoes to manage damage caused by the Guatemalan Tuber Moth (Tecia solanivora Povolny). The Guatemalan Tuber Moth is particularly destructive because field spraying on the adult stage is ineffective and there exists damage specificity to the tubers. Excessive pesticide sprays have resulted in resistance to several insecticides. Insect resistant (Bt) potatoes has been shown an effective means to control other members of the Tuber Moth complex. Thus a Bt potato may play a role in managing Tecia in Colombia. This is an ex ante...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Potatoes; Economic aspects; Genetically modified crops; Economic surplus model; Economic impacts; Risk; Research and development; Bt potatoes; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55416

Portfolio Choice with Uncertain Consumption Prices: a mean-variance approch
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Berck,   Peter; Cecchetti,   Stephen G.
This paper presents a mean-variance model of portfolio choice and asset pricing when the price of consumption goods as well as the return to assets is uncertain. The  correlation of an assets return with purchases at expected prices is shown to reduce both the mean return and the variance of the return of an asset. A numerical  approximation is computed to check the accuracy of the mean and variance approximation. Uncertainty of consumption prices is shown to result in long (or speculative) futures holding.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Consumption; Investments; Prices; Risk; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1980
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37852

ÁRVÍZVÉDELMI TÖLTÉSEK GYEPTAKARÓINAK HASZNA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Felkai,   Beata Olga.
Az árvízvédelmi töltések védelmében, az árvizek levonulásában, ezáltal ma-gában az árvízvédelemben a gyepesítésnek jelentős szerepe van. Gazdaságossá-gát nem lehet egzakt módon bizonyítani, hiszen míg a létesítési és fenntartási költségeket egyértelműen meghatározhatjuk, a bevételi oldal összetett és nehezen számszerűsíthető.  Az árvízvédelmi földgátak gyepesítésének társadalmi hasznossága és gazda-sági előnye mégis vitathatatlan: - közvetlen gazdasági haszon: pl. fűtermés értékesítéséből származó bevétel; - közvetett gazdasági haszon: a kockáztatott vagyonérték sikeres védelme, emberélet védelme (nehezen számszerűsíthető, mérése a mikrorizikó fogal-mának bevezetésével vált kivitelezhetővé); - a társadalom számára is több szempontból kedvező hatással van:...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Árvízvédelem; Kockázat; Gyepfelület; Vagyon; Gazdasági haszon - flood-prevention; Risk; Grass; Estate; Economical benefit; Agricultural and Food Policy; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54338

Issues at the Forefront of Public Policy for Environmental Risk: Comments for the American Meteorological Society's Annual Policy Colloquium
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: MacAuley,   Molly K.
The lay of the policy land for addressing and managing environmental risk includes the hillock of the precautionary principle, the mountain of the practice and ethics of monetary valuation, and the tectonic plates of real-world innovations in markets and trading exchanges for nonmarketed environmental goods. This paper offers an overview of these contemporary and as yet unresolved issues and asks how each might be addressed in disparate environmental risks such as lightning, climate change, and severe weather. The overview focuses on issues that may be of interest to the American Meteorological Society's annual policy colloquium.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk; Environment; Public policy; Economics; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q00; D89.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10494

Valuing the Health Benefits of Food Safety: A Proceedings
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kuchler,   Fred.
Because each Federal agency uses a different valuation method to estimate the costs of illness, it is difficult to compare programs across agencies. As a first step toward generating a consensus on the current state of knowledge and deciding on a common approach, several agencies planned this conference, held September 14-15, 2000, at the University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland. The outcome of the conference will serve as guidance for a consensus approach.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Foodborne illness; Risk; Value of statistical life; Valuing pain and suffering; Valuation methods; Pathogenic risks; Willingness to pay; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33550

PRICE UNCERTAINTY AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ji,   Wen; Holt,   Matthew T.
This paper examines the effects of price uncertainty on agricultural productivity. Appelbaum(1991) provided an empirical framework to analyze the effects of uncertainty on firm behavior. We apply the model to the U.S. agricultural sector, using a parametric rather than a nonparametric approach to obtain the measurement of price uncertainty and risk.  Keywords: risk, uncertainty, productivity
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Uncertainty; Productivity; Productivity Analysis.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21736

A Dynamic Decision Model of Technology Adoption under Uncertainty: Case of Herbicide-Resistant Rice
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Annou,   Mamane Malam; Wailes,   Eric J.; Thomsen,   Michael R.
Herbicide-resistant (HR) rice technology is a potential tool for control of red rice in commercial rice production.  Using an ex ante mathematical programming framework, this research presents an empirical analysis of HR rice technology adoption under uncertainty.  The analysis accounts for stochastic germination of red rice and sheath blight to model a profit maximization problem of crop rotation among HR rice, regular rice, and soybeans.  The results demonstrate that risk attitudes and technology efficiency determine adoption rates and optimal rotation patterns.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Biotechnology; Herbicide resistance; Mathematical programming; Profit maximization; Rice; Risk; Rotation; Technology; Adoption; Crop Production/Industries; Production Economics; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Q16; Q18; O33; C61.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43724

Vulnerability to risk among small farmers in Tajikistan: results of a 2011 survey
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lerman,   Zvi; Wolfgramm,   Bettina.
Tajikistan is judged to be highly vulnerable to risk, including food insecurity risks and climate change risks. By some vulnerability measures it is the most vulnerable among all 28 countries in the World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia Region – ECA (World Bank 2009). The rural population, with its relatively high incidence of poverty, is particularly vulnerable. The Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) in Tajikistan (2011) provided an opportunity to conduct a farm-level survey with the objective of assessing various dimensions of rural population’s vulnerability to risk and their perception of constraints to farming operations and livelihoods. The survey should be accordingly referred to as the 2011 PPCR survey. The rural population in Tajikistan is...
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Farmers; Tajikistan; Survey; Risk; Climate change; Tajikistan’s agriculture; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119833

A financial analysis of the effect of the mix of crop and sheep enterprises on the risk profile of dryland farms in south-eastern Australia – Part 1
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hutchings,   Timothy R.
This study presents a method of simulating longer-term cash flows that reflect the cumulative effects of variation in seasons, prices, enterprise sequences and mixes and other management decisions. It can be used to develop full risk profiles on a whole-farm or individual-component enterprise basis for most dryland farms in southern Australia, at gross margin, profit or cash flow levels. This analysis concentrates on the cash flow implications of these various scenarios because cash flow is the indicator which includes all costs, and therefore demonstrates affordability and the long-term viability of the farm business entity. This study shows that the role of sheep in the mixed farming enterprise in south-eastern Australia is to reduce the exposure of the...
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Whole-farm planning; Cash flow; Sheep; Crops; Risk; Farm Management.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121467

Risk premiums and GM traits
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nolan,   Elizabeth; Santos,   Paulo.
An argument in favor of the development of genetically modified (GM) hybrids is that their presence is considered to be risk decreasing. On this basis, insurance premiums for corn growers in the United States who plant approved hybrids have been reduced. In this study we investigate, using a large dataset of experimental data compiled from reports of results from experimental field trials of corn hybrids by the State Agricultural Extension Services of ten universities over 20 years, whether the presence in a corn hybrid of a GM trait, or a combination of these traits, is likely to increase or decrease risk. The effects of input use on production uncertainty can be quantified through the specification and estimation of heteroskedastic production functions...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Production functions; Yield; Risk; Skewness; Corn; Genetically modified traits; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; C2; Q12; Q16.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103692

HOW MUCH DO FARMERS VALUE THEIR INDEPENDENCE? ESTIMATING THE RISK AND AUTONOMY PREMIA ASSOCIATED WITH PRODUCTION CONTRACTS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Key,   Nigel D.
A farmer's decision to contract or produce independently depends on the distribution of income under both arrangements, and on attributes associated with both business arrangements.  Risk-averse farmers should be willing to pay a risk premium for the reduction in price risk provided by a contract.  Farmers with a preference for "autonomy" should be willing to pay a premium for certain attributes associated with independent production, such as the right to make management decisions and own the commodity they produce. The benefits to growers from contracting (such as risk reduction) may be over-estimated if the non-pecuniary benefits enjoyed by independent producers are not accounted for. This study uses national survey data to estimate the risk premium, the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural contracts; Autonomy; Nonpecuniary benefits; Risk; Farm Management.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19688

Modeling the Crop Insurance Industry Portfolio Gains and Losses (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Vergara,   Oscar; Zuba,   Gerhard; Seaquist,   Jack.
Powerpoint slide show presenting information about AIR (the first catastrophic modeling company), weather-based yield models, agricultural portfolio loss model, and applications to crop insurance/reinsurance.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Crop insurance; Reinsurance; Modeling; Agricultural loss; Loss model; Yield model; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43766

The Value of Private Risk Versus the Value of Public Risk: An Experimental Analysis of the Johannesson et al. Conjecture
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Messer,   Kent D.; Poe,   Gregory L.; Schulze,   William D.
In 1996 Johannesson et al. published a paper in this journal entitled “The Value of Private Safety versus the Value of Public Safety.” Based on preliminary evidence from a hypothetical contingent valuation study, these authors argue that consumers behave as “pure altruists” and reject the notion of paternalistic preferences for safety in a coercive tax setting. These pure altruists consider the cost of a program that might be imposed on other voters when they decide whether to vote for or against public safety programs. The authors conclude that further empirical research in this area is warranted. This paper presents a set of laboratory economics experiments to test Johannesson et al.’s conjecture under controlled conditions in which participants face an...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Altruism; Risk; Voting; Public goods; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; D64; H41; C91; C92; D72.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51141

More Reasons Why Farmers Have So Little Interest in Futures Markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pannell,   David J.; Hailu,   Getu; Weersink,   Alfons; Burt,   Amanda.
The use by farmers of futures contracts and other hedging instruments has been observed to be low in many situations, and this has sometimes seemed to be considered surprising or even mysterious. We propose that it is, in fact, readily understandable and consistent with rational decision making. Standard models of the decision about optimal hedging show that it is negatively related to basis risk, to quantity risk, and to transaction costs. Farmers who have less uncertainty about prices have a lower optimal level of hedging. If a farmer has optimistic price expectations relative to the futures market, the incentive to hedge can be greatly reduced. And finally, farmers who have low levels of risk aversion have little to gain from hedging in terms of risk...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Hedging; Risk; Risk aversion; Flat payoff functions; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9232

Supply Management and Price Ceilings on Production Quota Values: Future or Folly?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cairns,   Alexander P.; Meilke,   Karl D.; Benett,   Nick.
Since the inception of supply management in Canada during the 1970s, milk production quota has been used to regulate output and participation in the dairy industry. In recent years, milk quota values have increased dramatically, almost tripling in value since the mid-1980s. This led to the Dairy Farmers of Ontario intervening on the milk production quota exchange on two occasions: first, in November 2006 with a progressive transfer assessment and then in July 2009, replacing the former policy with a firm price ceiling – fixing the unit price of quota at $25,000. These policies represent a significant redistribution of economic benefits within the Ontario dairy community from milk producers approaching retirement and selling their quota to those remaining...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Milk; Quota; Policy; Risk; Supply; Management; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; Political Economy.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91474

INCOME AND CAPITALIZATION RATE RISK IN AGRICULTURAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Schnitkey,   Gary D.; Sherrick,   Bruce J.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farmland Prices; Farmland Returns; Capitalization Rates; Risk; Asset Bubbles; Land Economics/Use; Q14.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/109472

RISK, GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS, AND THE ENVIRONMENT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Roberts,   Michael J.; Osteen,   Craig D.; Soule,   Meredith J.
Nearly all farm business ventures involve financial risk. In some instances, private and public tools used to manage financial risks in agriculture may influence farmers' production decisions. These decisions, in turn, can influence environmental quality. This bulletin summarizes research and provides some perspective on private and public attempts to cope with financial risks and their unintended environmental consequences. Specifically, it examines the conceptual underpinnings of risk-related research, challenges involved with measuring the consequences of risk for agricultural production decisions, government programs that influence the risk and return of farm businesses, and how production decisions influence both the environment and the risk and...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Risk; Agricultural production; Government programs; Environment; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33563

PAYOFFS TO FARM MANAGEMENT: HOW IMPORTANT IS CROP MARKETING?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nivens,   Heather D.; Kastens,   Terry L.; Dhuyvetter,   Kevin C.
In production agriculture, good management is demonstrated by profits that are persistenly greater than those of similar neighboring farms.  This research examined the effects of management practices on risk-adjusted profit per acre for Kansas farms over 1990-1999.  The management practices were price, cost, yield, planting intensity, and technology adoption (less-tillage).  Cost management, planting intensity, and technology adoption had the greatest effect on profit per acre, and cash price management was found to have the smallest impact.  If producers wish to have continuously high profits, their efforts are best spent in management practices over which they have the most control.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm management; Marketing; Risk; Technology adoption; Farm Management; Marketing.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15507

A modern view of Joseph's policy: food stocks as financial assets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Adelman,   Irma; Berck,   Peter.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Food consumption; Mathematical models; Price stabilization; Prices; Risk; Supply and demand.
Ano: 1989
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43666

AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS RESEARCH AND EXTENSION MARKETING PROGRAMS: HOW WELL ARE THEY INTEGRATED?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Brorsen,   B. Wade; Anderson,   Kim B.
Extension marketing economists were surveyed to determine whether they are using available research results and whether research is being conducted on topics relevant to extension marketing economists.  In some cases, the beliefs of extension marketing economists differ from recent research results.  The research topics recommended by extension economists and the topics of papers presented at the 1994-97 annual NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management are well matched.  While relevant research is being done, many extension economists desire marketing strategies that both reduce risk and increase income.  Research, however, has not produced such strategies.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Efficient markets; Extension; Farmer marketing; Outlook; Research; Risk; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14726

Factors Explaining Farmers' Insurance Purchase in the Dutch Dairy Sector
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ogurtsov,   Victor A.; Van Asseldonk,   Marcel A.P.M.; Huirne,   Ruud B.M.
This paper analyzed the impact of farm and farmer characteristics on the acceptability to dairy farmers in the Netherlands of an all-risk insurance package and underlying specific categories of insurance coverage. The major farm characteristics considered were structural, operational and financial variables, while farmer age was the major farmer-specific characteristic analyzed. The specific insurance categories reviewed were damage, legal, disability, liability and health insurance. The results suggest that there are common and insurance-specific factors that can improve the design of insurance policies for dairy farmers.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Insurance; Farm characteristics; Risk; Dairy farm; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7774

Uncertainty and Producer Fed Cattle Marketing Decisions: Theory and Evidence
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fausti,   Scott W.; Lange,   Brent.
This article has been submitted to the CJAE.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Quality uncertainty; Risk; Market structure; Slaughter cattle markets; Demand and Price Analysis; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; D40; D81; Q10.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/102692

Az őszi árpa terméskockázatának növekedése és lehetséges okai
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Erdelyi,   Eva; Novak,   Aliz; Ladanyi,   Marta.
Az éghajlatváltozás folyamata már elkezdődött, ezért a magyar agrárkutatóknak és szakembereknek is jól működő leíró-előrejelző rendszereket szükséges alkotniuk. Munkánk célja a hozamok elemzése, az időbeni változások megfigyelése volt 1951-től napjainkig. Az árpa termésmennyiségi adatait a trendhatások kiszűrésével összehasonlíthatóvá tettük. A vizsgálat helyszíne Hajdú-Bihar megye volt. Az ún. E,V hatásossági kritérium alapján vizsgáltuk az árpa terméskockázatának alakulását az 1951-90-es időszakban, továbbá azóta. A kimutatott terméskockázat-növekedés azt a nézetet támasztja alá, hogy az éghajlat „láthatóan” változik, aminek jeleivel szinte naponta találkozunk. Megfigyelt meteorológiai változókból olyan indikátorokat ké¬pezhetünk, amelyek vélhetően...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Éghajlatváltozás; Kockázat; Termésmennyiség; Őszi árpa; Climate change; Risk; Crop volume; Autumn barley; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92503

Revenue volatility faced by Australian wheat farmers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kingwell,   Ross S.
This paper uses variance decomposition modelling to explore how wheat revenue volatility in Australia has changed spatially and temporally. The components of revenue variance are the variances and covariances of wheat prices, the area of wheat harvested and the yield of wheat. The key finding is that the volatility of wheat revenue (detrended) has more than doubled in every main wheat-growing State in Australia over the last 15 years or so Changes in wheat areas are mostly a minor source of revenue variance. The principal cause of volatility is yield changes with price changes increasing slightly in absolute importance when compared to their adjacent previous period. Greater downside yield risk is often the principal cause of the increased yield variance....
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Wheat production; Variance decomposition; Wheat farming; Agribusiness.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100572

Explaining the Changing Institutional Organisation of Dutch Farms: The Role of Farmer's Attitude, Advisory Network and Structural Factors
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jongeneel,   Roelof A.; Slangen,   Louis H.G.
Although still the family farm is the dominant farm type there are changes in the legal mode of organization. Applying the new institutional economics and economic organisation theory the different organisation modes are explained, mainly in terms of control and income rights. Important factors are (limited) liability, risk-bearing costs, transaction costs, and residual control and income rights. This is subsequently applied to Dutch agriculture, taking into account its special characteristics. In an empirical follow-up, based on a sample of all the farmers in the Netherlands, the farmers attitudes and the farm advisory network are analysed. Finally, farm types are explained using bivariate logit analysis, taking into account attitudinal, advisory-network...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farm organization; Ownership and management; Liability; Risk; Residual control and income rights; Attitudes; Advisory network; Industrial Organization.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24441

Trade Agreements: The Important Role of Transparency
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kerr,   William A.
International trade can be inhibited in two ways; through the use of mechanisms that directly alter the flow of goods and poor transparency in the rules of trade. The former includes tariffs and other border measures, subsidies and non-tariff barriers. The effect on trade flows resulting from issues of transparency is indirect. When the rules of trade are unclear for firms considering investing in trade related activities, the risks associated with those investments increase and investment is inhibited. If there is less investment in trade related activities, trade flows will be reduced. Poor transparency exists in contingent protection measures such as anti-dumping – currently on the agenda of the Rules negotiations at the WTO and – customs and related...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Investment; Liberalization; Risk; Transparency; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6322

GLOBALIZATION, CROPPING CHOICES, AND PROFITABILITY IN AMERICAN AGRICULTURE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Blank,   Steven C.
The paper discusses the linkages between the "globalization" of agricultural markets over recent decades and the decisions being made by individual farmers and ranchers in the United States.  It is noted that technological advances lead to globalization of agricultural commodity markets and profit pressures.  The continuing profit squeeze in agricultural production is having a significant effect on the cropping choices of America's farmers.  When possible, acreage is being shifted out of low-revenue-generating crops and into higher-revenue-generating crops.  This shift makes crop portfolios more risky over time, thus encouraging farmers to consider diversifying out of agriculture.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Cropping choices; Globalization; Profit; Risk; Safety-first; Agricultural Finance; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15013

A Risk Analysis of Carbon Sequestration in Claypan Soil with Conservation Tillage Systems and Nitrogen Fertilizers for Grain Sorghum and Soybean
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Williams,   Jeffery R.; Pendell,   Dustin L.; Sweeney,   Daniel; Rice,   Charles W.; Nelson,   Richard G.
Replaced with revised version of paper 02/15/06.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Carbon sequestration; Carbon credits; Nitrogen; Risk; Tillage; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35327

Can Risk Reducing Policies Reduce Farmer's Risk and Improve Their Welfare?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Anton,   Jesus; Giner,   Celine.
This paper develops an analytical model able to represent the decisions of an individual risk averse farmer facing variability in both prices and yields. A comprehensive set of stylised risk reducing policy measures is represented. A calibration of the model is used to run Monte-Carlo simulations and to obtain optimal responses. The main focus is the interaction between policy measures and market strategies in terms of impacts on production, welfare and risk. Risk reducing strategies that cover different sources of risk, such as price and yield variability, may be complementary for the farmers. Counter-cyclical area payments create incentives to bring land into production and their capacity to reduce farming risk is mitigated by the potential crowding out...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Welfare; Policy; Insurance; Counter-cyclical; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; Q12.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24578

Risk, Information, and Trust in the Food Chain: Factors Explaining Consumer Willingness to Pay
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Latvala,   Terhi.
This paper analysed factors contributing to consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for increased quality information. The empirical scope of the study was restricted to beef, because the beef labelling system enables reliable tracing of quality attributes. The results showed that consumer perceptions of specific risks in food partly explain their WTP. Also negative experiences heard from other people increased the probability of WTP. Trust seems to be extremely significant factor in WTP models. This study implies that the majority of the respondents trust the food safety authorities and the co‐operation of all stakeholders in the food chain.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk; Trust; Information; Beef; Willingness to pay.; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Industrial Organization; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/101282

A Utilização da BM&amp;F como Instrumento de Gerenciamento de Risco de Preço de Boi Gordo Comercializado em Rondônia
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: de Zen,   Sergio; Bellotti de Melo,   Guilherme.
This paper aimed to analyse the BM&amp;F cattle future market as a tool for price risk management for traders that deal cattle in the Rondônia State. In order to reach this goal it was analysed if there is a long-term relationship between the cattle prices in Rondônia and the Esalq/BM&amp;F Cattle Index. Besides that, it was done an examination of the optimal hedge Rio Branco – Acre, 20 a 23 de julho de 2008 Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administração e Sociologia Rural ratio and its effectiveness to the year of 2007. The results indicated that the cattle price in Rondônia and the Esalq/BM&amp;F Cattle Index has a long-term relationship, which means the traders can use the BM&amp;F as tool to hedge the cattle price in such state. However, through the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Cattle Prices; Risk; Future Market; Rondônia; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96279

Grain Contracting Strategies to Induce Delivery and Performance in Volatile Markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wilson,   William W.; Dahl,   Bruce L.
One of the impacts of higher prices along with greater volatility in futures and basis is that there is pressure for an escalation in cash contracting for grain. This volatility has resulted in an unprecedented level of contracting with growers in recent years. There is a wide array of cash contracts with varying terms. There is also a growing realization of growers not delivering on contracts, in part due to escalation in postcontract prices. These are evolving as major strategic issues for buyers and the marketing system, particularly as buyers seek to use such contracting strategies as an element of risk mitigation. There are three purposes of this article. First is to provide a broad survey of contract terms used in grain contracting with growers....
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Grain contracting; Risk; Volatility; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; C15; D81; Q12.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53082

Risk Analysis in Selected European and International Food Chains
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ameseder,   Christoph; Haas,   Rainer; Fritz,   Melanie; Schiefer,   Gerhard.
The purpose of this study is to assess and evaluate the most important risks in selected European and international food chains from the perspective of the buying company. The primary objective is to identify the “non-acceptable” risks in terms of damage potential and likelihood of occurrence of value chains in the sectors grain, meat, fruit and vegetable, and olive oil. Data was collected by each partner of the European research project “e-trust” (FP6-CT-2006-043056) by conducting 81 qualitative expert interviews with business leaders in Europe (Austria, Germany, Greece, Italy, Slovenia, Spain) as well as in Brazil, Turkey, and the USA. The study focuses on a wider supply chain or network perspective for the risk assessment. Methodically the assessed...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Risk analysis; Supply chain; Food; Risk map; Risk classification; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Security and Poverty; Industrial Organization; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58708

Food security policy in a stochastic world
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Adelman,   Irma; Berck,   Peter.
Food security may be increased by variance-reducing strategies, by food aid, or by development strategies. This paper uses a Korea CGE model, subjected to random fluctuation in world-prices and domestic food productivity, to evaluate these policies. We find that poverty-reducing development strategies are the most effective food-security strategies.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Agricultural policies; Food aid; Prices; Risk; Stochastic models.
Ano: 1989
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43664

Estimating an Ex Ante Cost Function for Belgian Arable Crop Farms
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hansen,   Kristiana; Baudry,   Alexandre; De Blander,   Rembert; Frahan,   Bruno Henry de; Polome,   Philippe.
We estimate a farm-level cost function for Belgian crop farms using FADN data over the study period 1996-2006. We rely on an estimation of farmers' expected yields at the time cropping decisions are made rather than actual yields observed in the FADN data. The use of an ex ante cost function improves the cost function estimation. We subsequently suggest how our cost function can be used in simulations to analyze farmer response to changes in output price risk.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Cost function estimation; Panel data; Risk; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Production Economics; Q12; Q18.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49477

Risk and De-Collectivisation: Evidence from the Czech Republic
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bezemer,   Dirk J.
The replacement of wage-labour farms by family farms in Central and Eastern Europe during the transformation has been more limited than was initially expected. In this paper a formal framework is developed in order to analyse the behaviour of family farms and socialist-style farms in the presence of risk, given the typical post-socialist environment. Management incentives, ownership structure, lump-sum transfers and consumption choices are shown to have the potential to limit the size of family farms relative to socialist-style farms. The hypotheses are tested with survey data collected by the author in the Czech Republic.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Transition; Agriculture; Structural change; Risk; Survey data; Risk and Uncertainty; D21; D81; O18; Q12.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24888

MARKETING AND CROP INSURANCE COMBINED TO MANAGE RISK ON A CASS COUNTY REPRESENTATIVE FARM
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Clow,   Aaron D.; Flaskerud,   George K.
This study analyzed the effects that the use of crop insurance products and marketing alternatives had on the gross revenue per acre for an individual farm in Cass County. Crop insurance products and marketing strategies were analyzed individually to determine if they were effective in minimizing down side risk, and combined to determine if integration created synergies. A whole farm scenario analysis was run that included integrated strategies that implemented the same insurance coverage and marketing alternatives for each crop.  Several general conclusions can be drawn for situations similar to the representative farm. When analyzed at the individual crop level, the use of crop insurance at the 65 percent level minimizes down side risk in wheat and corn,...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk; Management; Strategy; Yield; Price; Insurance; Market; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23517

Agricultural Precautionary Wealth
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jensen,   Farrell E.; Pope,   Rulon D.
Using panel data, the relationship between income uncertainty and the stock of wealth through precautionary saving is examined. Evidence from Kansas data is consistent with the precautionary saving motive in that farm households facing greater uncertainty in income maintain larger stocks of wealth in order to smooth consumption. These results are found by regressing net worth against measures of permanent income (life-cycle income), measures of uncertainty, and demographic variables.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Precautionary saving; Precautionary wealth; Risk; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31146

Spousal Risk Preferences and Household Investment Decisions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Brady,   Michael P.; Mandal,   Bidisha.
Most adults are married, plan for retirement with their spouse, and pool assets to a significant degree.  How then are each individual’s risk preferences combined in choosing the portfolio that represents for them the optimal tradeoff between risk and return?  There are two pathways through which marriage could amplify the expression of individual risk preferences at the household level.  First, if people choose spouses in part based on their appetite for risk, or another characteristic correlated with risk tolerance, then there could be polarization of household level risk preferences towards extremes.  Second, spouses may strategically adjust their decisions to compensate for their spouse’s preferences.  Is an only mildly risk averse person that is...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Households; Risk; Investing; Consumer/Household Economics.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103764

Analysis for biotechnology innovations using Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lanacre,   Nicholas A.; Gaskell,   Joanne; Rosegrant,   Mark W.; Falck-Zepeda,   Jose Benjamin; Quemada,   Hector; Halsey,   Mark; Birner,   Regina.
Meeting the food needs of the world’s growing population while reducing poverty and protecting the environment is a major global challenge. Genetically modified crops appear to provide a promising option to deal with this challenge. However there is a need to make strategic decisions on how to spend limited agricultural research funds in order to achieve a maximum impact with regard to finding sustainable solutions to end hunger and poverty. In international development institutions, there is growing interest in the potential use of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) as part of a research based Environmental Management System (EMS) to promote mainstreaming of environmental considerations in policy development. SEA was developed as an approach to...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk; Strategic Environmental Assessment; Genetically Modified; GMO; LMO; Living Modified Organisms; Biotechnology; Environmental risk; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58584

CONSUMER FOOD SAFETY BEHAVIOR:  A CASE STUDY IN HAMBURGER COOKING AND ORDERING
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Starke,   Yolanda; Ralston,   Katherine L.; Brent,   C. Philip; Riggins,   Toija; Lin,   Chung-Tung Jordan.
More Americans are eating hamburgers more well-done than in the past, according to national surveys. This change reduced the risk of E. coli O157:H7 infection by an estimated 4.6 percent and reduced associated medical costs and productivity losses by an estimated $7.4 million annually. In a 1996 survey, respondents who were more concerned about the risk of foodborne illness cooked and ordered hamburgers more well-done than those who were less concerned. However, respondents who strongly preferred hamburgers less well-done cooked and ordered them that way, even after accounting for their concern about the risk of illness.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Hamburger doneness; Ground beef; Food safety; Food safety education; E. coli O157:H7; Consumer behavior; Survey; Risk; Foodborne illness; Risk perceptions; Palatability; Information; Microbial pathogens; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34061

Factors Influencing Private Landowner  Restoration Investment Decisions in Coastal Louisiana
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dedah,   Cheikhna O.; Kazmierczak,   Richard F., Jr.; Keithly,   Walter R., Jr.
Coastal wetland loss has been a major problem in Louisiana, exceeding 1.2 million acres over the last century alone. Although federal, state, and local efforts have attempted to combat this loss from a public perspective, little has been done to encourage private landowners to maintain and protect their coastal lands.  This paper investigates the factors that influence private landowners to invest in coastal wetland restoration and maintenance activities in Louisiana.  We surveyed private coastal landowners to determine their general socioeconomic characteristics, attitudes toward risks, attitudes toward wetland conservation, current uses of landholdings, and previous investments in wetland restoration and maintenance projects. Using this survey data, an...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Wetlands; Restoration; Investment; Risk; Attitudes; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56451

Simulation of Alternative Marketing Strategies for U.S. Cotton
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Elrod,   Christopher P.; Robinson,   John R.C.; Richardson,   James W.
Three marketing strategies (selling a put option, cash sale at harvest, and cash sale in June) are simulated based on historical values and ranked based on certainty equivalents for a representative irrigated and dryland cotton farm Scenario analysis is also used to compare varying yield values.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Simulation; Marketing; Cotton; Risk; Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6885

CONSUMER INTENTIONS OF BUYING POULTRY MEAT UNDER PERCEIVED BIOLOGICAL, CHEMICAL OR TECHNOLOGICAL RISK IN FINLAND
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Heikkila,   Jaakko; Pouta,   Eija; Forsman-Hugg,   Sari; Makela,   Johanna.
The study focuses on various types of food safety risks: biological (zoonoses), chemical (chemical treatment of the meat) and technological (use of genetically modified feed). The emphasis was on how the perceived risks affect the purchase intentions in the case of broiler meat. In the case of each risk products the attitude-level variables had importance in explaining the buying intentions. The heterogeneity of the respondents regarding the purchase intentions of risk products was analysed by latent class logistic regression that included all three risk products. About 60% of the respondents belonged to the group of risk avoiders in which the purchase intention of risk food was significantly lower than in the second group of risk neutrals in which 64% of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Broiler; Consumer behaviour; Risk; Food safety; Consumer heterogeneity; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Health Economics and Policy; C25; D12; Q18.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116403

Willingness to Pay for Weather Derivatives by Australian Wheat Farmers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Simmons,   Phil; Edwards,   Miriam; Byrnes,   Joel.
A theoretical optimal hedging model is developed to determine potential demand from Australian farmers for a hedging tool to remove the economic consequences of climate related variability in wheat yield. In the past, financial instruments have been developed to hedge price risk on capital markets; however, in more recent times new financial instruments, weather derivatives, have been developing that hedge the volumetric risk associated with unfavourable weather. Weather derivatives have the ability to effectively hedge weather related volume risk for the agricultural, mining, energy and manufacturing industries, while also providing a risk management tool for construction firms and special events organisers, although there are still many hurdles to...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Weather derivatives; Risk; Hedging; Wheat; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9262

Excluded Losses and the Demand for Insurance (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Meyer,   Donald J.; Meyer,   Jack.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Insurance; Decision-making; Risk and Uncertainty; D81.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48907

EXCEL COOPERATIVE: STRATEGIC RESPONSE TO THE BOOM IN BIOFUELS. TEACHING NOTE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Roucan-Kane,   Maud; Boehlje,   Michael; Gray,   Allan W.; Akridge,   Jay T.
The objective of this paper is to present the teaching note of a case study. The case study outlines the strategic issues facing Excel Cooperative as a result of the rapid expansion of biofuel production capacity in the Midwestern U.S.  Excel Cooperative is a mid-sized, ‘local’, farmer-owned cooperative serving farmers in north central Indiana.  Excel is composed of four divisions: agronomy, energy, grain, and feed/livestock. With the Excel case, the reader must think strategically about the broad impacts of the biofuel “boom”, apply strategic management tools and decision-making under uncertainty concepts to better understand the impacts, and frame a response.  The methodology proposed in the teaching note is composed of a SWOT analysis, scorecarding and...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Risk; Heat mapping; Scorecarding; Scenario analysis; Payoff matrix; Decision tree; Real option; Traps; Agribusiness; D81.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53584

Indian Farmers'  Valuation of Crop Yield Distributions: Will poor farmers value 'pro-poor' seeds?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lybbert,   Travis J.
Potential poverty traps among the rural poor suggest a need to reduce poor farmers' vulnerability by stabilizing crop yields and limiting yield losses. Advances in agricultural biotechnology enable breeders to address this need more directly than ever before with crops that reduce production risk by tolerating climate fluctuation or resisting biotic stresses. Will poor farmers who could benefit most from less vulnerability choose to purchase such risk-reducing seeds? I use data from a household survey and experiment involving farmers in India to infer their valuation of changes in the mean, variance, and skewness of yield distributions. I conclude that these farmers value increases in expected yield in the yield distribution but seem indifferent about...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Poverty; Risk; Biotechnology; Experimental Economics; Farm Management; C9–; D8; O1; Q1.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19160

Risk in Public Policy Making: A Neglected Issue in Australia
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hardaker,   J. Brian; Fleming,   Euan M.; Lien,   Gudbrand D.
We argue for greater recognition of the risky nature of most policy decisions. In this context we discuss the gulf between public risk perceptions and attitudes and those of 'experts'. Public views of risk are often inconsistent and seemingly irrational. They nevertheless influence policy choices in a democracy. On the other hand, experts often claim unjustifiable levels of confidence in their predictions of policy choice outcomes, creating a lack of public faith in their recommendations. While risky policy choices deserve more systematic decision analysis, there is a need for more effective interaction between policy makers, decision analysts and the public.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Policy-making; Risk; Uncertainty; Decision Analysis; Perceptions; Subjectivity; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Political Economy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/5997

Chapter 02: SELF-PROTECTION, RISK INFORMATION, AND EX ANTE VALUES OF FOOD SAFETY AND NUTRITION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Eom,   Young Sook.
This book was originally published by Westview Press, Boulder CO, 1995.
Tipo: Book Chapter
Palavras-chave: Food safety; Nutrition; Risk; Consumer information; Self protection; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.
Ano: 1995
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25985

The Impacts of Farm Size and Economic Risk on No-Till Rice Whole-Farm Profitability
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Watkins,   K. Bradley; Hignight,   Jeffrey A.; Anders,   Merle M.
This study evaluated the impacts of farm size and stochastic return variability on no-till (NT) rice profitability at the whole-farm level. Mixed integer programming was used to determine optimal machinery complements, fuel consumption, and machinery labor requirements for conventional till (CT) and NT rice-soybean farms of 1200, 2400, and 3600 acres in size. Crop yields, market prices, and prices for key production inputs were simulated to construct stochastic whole-farm net returns for each farm size under CT and NT management, and both first and second degree stochastic dominance analysis were used to rank cumulative distribution functions of whole-farm returns according to specified risk preferences. The results indicate NT farms exhibit second degree...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Mixed integer programming; No-till; Profitability; Rice; Risk; Simulation; Stochastic dominance; Whole-farm; Farm Management; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98733

Factor Input Demand Subject to Economic and Environmental Risk: The Case of Nitrogen Fertilizer in Corn Production
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Carriker,   Gordon L.
Nitrogen (N) fertilizer demand in relation to economic and environmental risks associated with N-fertilizer management are examined. Both nominal and environmental damage-adjusted net returns distributions are evaluated using stochastic dominance analysis. Results suggest that, in the absence of environmental risk, N demand becomes more elastic as farmers become more risk averse. When environmental risk is introduced to the decision-making process, N demand becomes even more elastic.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Environmental damage; Factor input demand; Nitrogen fertilizer management; Risk; Stochastic dominance; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 1993
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118154

Natural Disasters and Agriculture: Individual Risk Preferences towards Flooding
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sauer,   Johannes.
This study contributes to the understanding of behavioural responses to climate change induced extreme weather events. It suggest a microeconometric method for measuring flooding related risk preferences of affected individuals. The method is outlined using the empirical case of agricultural production in floodplains of the UK over 28 years. A quasi-experimental approach to measure differences in the risk attitudes of farmers located in high flooding risk areas versus farmers located in low flooding risk areas is followed. Changes in flooding risk related behaviour over time is analysed and marginal effects of different individual and disaster related characteristics for this behaviour are investigated. Beside a moments based risk estimation approach the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Extreme Events; Risk; Agriculture; Natural Experiments; Behavioural Adaptation; Extreme Ereignisse; Risiko; Landwirtschaft; Natürliche Experimente; Verhaltensadaption; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q12; C54.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114497

ANÁLISE COMPARATIVA DA VIABILIDADE ECONÔMICA DOS SISTEMAS DE PRODUÇÃO CONVENCIONAL E INTEGRADO DE CAFÉ
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pereira,   Vanessa da Fonseca; Mendonca,   Talles Girardi de; Reis,   Bricio dos Santos.
Due to growing consumer demands regarding product quality and the social and environmental aspects of the production process, there is a need to redefine the agricultural productive structure so as to make it sustainable. The Integrated Production System in Coffee (CIP) aims to meet these new requirement standards. The system, however, is still very recent and requires more detailed studies to identify its strengths and weaknesses. Therefore, the objective of this work is to carry out a comparative analysis of the economic viability and the risk associated to the conventional and integrated systems of coffee production in the farm property of São João, in the Coimbra district in Minas Gerais state. The method used was the calculation of the viability and...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Coffee; Integrated production; Viability; Risk; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Industrial Organization.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61726

Agricultural Arbitrage, Adjustment Costs, and the Intensive Margin
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tack,   Jesse B.; LaFrance,   Jeffrey T.
Farmland and capital are an important and rapidly expanding component of the agricultural economy, and empirical evidence suggests that these assets are quasi-fixed in that adjustment costs are incurred when holdings are altered. Increased interest in the rate of return for investing in farmland suggests that an important consideration is the effect of adjustment costs on this return. A novel theoretical model is developed that ties together contributions from the farmland pricing and adjustment cost literatures, and the first order conditions for a utility maximizing decision maker are rearranged into intertemporal arbitrage equations that are similar in spirit to traditional finance models. The common assumptions that land and capital are quasi-fixed...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Arbitrage; Adjustment Costs; Farmland; Asset Pricing; Capital; Cost Function; Risk; Production; Agricultural Finance; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56412

The state-contingent approach to production under uncertainty
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Quiggin,   John C.; Chambers,   Robert G.
The central claim of this paper is that the state-contingent approach provides the best way to think about all problems in the economics of uncertainty, including problems of consumer choice, the theory of the firm, and principal–agent relationships. This claim is illustrated by recent developments in, and applications of, the state-contingent approach.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk; State-contingent production; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116925

TOOLS AND ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK TO MAKE DECISIONS IN TURBULENT TIMES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Roucan-Kane,   Maud; Boehlje,   Michael; Gray,   Allan W.; Akridge,   Jay T.
The dramatic changes occurring throughout the agriculture industry are creating an increasingly turbulent business climate for the sector. The objective of this paper is to present a methodology to understand, assess, evaluate, and manage uncertainty. Five methods are discussed: scenario analysis, scorecarding and heat mapping, payoff matrix, decision tree, and options portfolio mapping. Scenario analysis can help identify the alternative futures that may unfold. Scorecarding and heat mapping assessment tools can be used to assess and map the uncertainties, and decide which uncertainties the company should capitalize on and which projects could be pursued to exploit those uncertainties. Payoff matrices and decision trees (using real option valuation)...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Risk; Heat mapping; Scorecarding; Scenario analysis; Payoff matrix; Decision tree; Real option; Traps; Agribusiness; D81.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55465

Informal Insurance in the Presence of Poverty Traps: Evidence from Southern Ethiopia
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Santos,   Paulo; Barrett,   Christopher B.
Fieldwork for this paper was conducted under the Pastoral Risk Management (PARIMA) project of the Global Livestock Collaborative Research Support Program (GL CRSP), funded by the Office of Agriculture and Food Security, Global Bureau, USAID, under grant number DAN-1328-G-00-0046-00, and analysis was underwritten by the USAID SAGA cooperative agreement, grant number HFM-A-00-01-00132-00. Financial support was also provided by the Social Science Research Council's Program in Applied Economics on Risk and Development (through a grant from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation), The Pew Charitable Trusts (through the Christian Scholars Program of the University of Notre Dame), the Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (Portugal), and the Graduate...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Informal insurance; Social networks; Poverty traps; Ethiopia; Risk and Uncertainty; Z13; I3; O13.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25487

INVESTIGATING THE IMPLICATIONS OF MULTI-CROP REVENUE INSURANCE FOR PRODUCER RISK MANAGEMENT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Miller,   J. Corey; Coble,   Keith H.; Barnett,   Barry J.
This study investigates the potential for alternative multi-crop revenue insurance designs in  comparison to single crop yield and  revenue insurance designs. A  non-parametric multi-crop insurance model is developed which subsumes the single crop designs. The results compare alternative designs in terms of rate levels and risk reduction gains for representative Mississippi producers.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Revenue insurance; Risk; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15802

FARM CHARACTERISTICS THAT INFLUENCE NET FARM INCOME VARIABILITY AND LOSSES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dunn,   Jerry W.; Williams,   Jeffery R.
Farm-level, cross-section and panel data were used with econometric methods to examine relationships between variability in net farm income and explanatory variables including government payments, gross crop income, gross livestock income, costs, efficiency measures, and other socioeconomic characteristics such as age, leverage, percent of land rented, and enterprise diversification. The results suggest that quantifying the impacts of socioeconomic factors on variability of net farm income is difficult. Among the income variables, changes in gross crop income had the largest impact. Among cross-section data, increases in interest costs, age, and diversification were found to have positive relationships with net income variability. However, only the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Diversification; Farm planning; Panel data; Risk; Tobit; Agricultural Finance; Farm Management.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36337

RISK PREFERENCES AND CONTRACTING IN THE U.S. HOG INDUSTRY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Johnson,   C. Scott; Foster,   Kenneth A.
Much of the increase use of vertical coordination in the U.S. swine industry has taken place through contract production.  While the incidence of contracting is much higher in nontraditional hog production areas, a growing number of Midwestern producers are being faced with contract options.  A variety of contractual arrangements are available through feed companies, integrators, genetics firms, and packers.  However, little is known about the profitability and risk characteristics of these alternatives.  This research suggests that risk neutral producers in the Midwest would prefer independent production, and risk averse producers would prefer to choose among the various types of coordination arrangements.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Stochastic dominance; Risk; Contract production; Swine; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 1994
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15166

USING BEST WORST SCALING TO INVESTIGATE PERCEPTIONS OF CONTROL AND CONCERN OVER FOOD AND NON-FOOD RISKS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Erdem,   Seda; Rigby,   Dan.
This research locates a series of risks or hazards within a framework characterized by the level of control respondents believe they have over the risks, and the level of worry the risks prompt. It does this for a set of both food and non-food risks. The means by which this is done is novel and differs from past risk perception analyses in that it asks people directly regarding their relative assessments of the levels of control and worry regarding the risks presented. The cognitive burden associated with people ranking and scaling items in large sets is notoriously heavy and so this study uses an elicitation method designed to make the process intuitive and cognitively manageable for respondents. The substantive analysis of the risk perceptions has 4 main...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Best-worst scaling; Maximum Difference; Food; Risk; Perception; Novel Technology; E.coli; UK; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; Q18; Q51; D03; D12.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61518

Portfolio Theory and the Demand for Futures: theory and the case of California cotton
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Berck,   Peter.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Cotton trade; Future trading; Futures market; Investments; Risk.
Ano: 1980
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37706

On the (De)Stabilization Effects of Biofuels: Relative Contributions of Policy Instruments and Market Forces
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gohin,   Alexandre; Treguer,   David.
Ethanol production has recently surged in response to biofuel policies and increased fossil oil prices. We develop a partial equilibrium model focused on U.S. corn-based ethanol production with downside risk-averse farmers to assess the consequences of ethanol production on agricultural volatility. We report substantial effects on the distribution of corn prices with increases in the variance of prices received by farmers. Risk-averse corn farmers still benefit due to the higher mean price effect. From a methodological perspective, this analysis reveals that downside risk aversion may be important.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Policy; Risk; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61061

Changes in Producers’ Perceptions of Within-field Yield Variability Following Adoption of Cotton Yield Monitors
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rejesus,   Roderick M.; Marra,   Michele C.; Roberts,   Roland K.; English,   Burton C.; Larson,   James A.; Paxton,   Kenneth W.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Precision Farming; Risk; Yield Monitor; Yield Variability; Yield Perceptions; Spatial Yield Distributions; Within Field Variability; Farm Management; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q16.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60971

2001 NORTH DAKOTA AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK: REPRESENTATIVE FARMS 2001-2010
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Taylor,   Richard D.; Koo,   Won W.; Swenson,   Andrew L.
Net farm income for most representative farms in 2010 will be lower than in 2000.  Low profit farms, which consist of 25% of the farms in the study, may have  negative net farm income throughout the forecasting period, and may not have financial resiliency to survive.  Cropland prices and cash rental rates are projected to increase slightly except in the Red River Valley where they are projected to fall.  Debt-to-asset ratios for most farms will increase slightly throughout the forecast period.  Debt-to-asset ratios for the low profit and small size farms are higher than those for large and high profit farms.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Net Farm Income; Debt-to-asset Ratios; Cropland Prices; Land Rental Rates; Farm Operating Expenses; Capitalization Rate; Risk; Farm Management.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23540

Innovation Behaviour At Farm Level – Selection And Identification
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sauer,   Johannes; Zilberman,   David.
Using a squential logit model and a mixed-effects logistic regression approach this empirical study investigates factors for the adoption of automatic milking technology (AMS) at the farm level accounting for problems of sequential sample selection and behaviour identification. The results suggest the importance of the farmer’s risk perception, significant effects of peer-group behaviour, and a positive impact of previous innovation experiences.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Technology Adoption; Mixed-Effects Regression; Risk; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61354

INNOVATION IN THE FOOD AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES: ACOMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Boehlje,   Michael; Broring,   Stefanie; Roucan-Kane,   Maud.
Innovation is critical to the long-term success of a firm as well as the economic health of an industry and the overall economy. This manuscript presents an overview of the management literature regarding technology and innovation management. It also describes the unique characteristics of the food and agricultural sector and offers a research agenda to extend the management literature to the agribusiness sector.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Innovation; Agribusiness; Portfolio of options; Risk; Agribusiness; International Development; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; L24; D81; O31; O32.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56389

Exchange Rate Volatility in BRICS Countries
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Maradiaga,   David Isaias; Zapata,   Hector O.; Pujula,   Aude Liliana.
This paper measures the impact of bilateral exchange rates, the world agricultural GDP and third-country exchange rate volatilities (Yen/USD and Euro/USD) on the BRICS agricultural exports using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Two measures of volatility are used: the standard deviation and the coefficient of variation of the rates of change of the real exchange rates. We found that most variables are integrated of order two except the third-country exchange rate volatilities which are stationary and thus considered as exogenous in the VAR models. The causality between I(2) variables was tested using the modified Wald test introduced by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). We found that both volatilities (Yen/USD and Euro/USD) Granger cause Brazilian agricultural...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: BRICS; Currency Exchange Rate; Volatility; Trade; Agricultural Exports; U.S. Dollar; Risk; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119726

LOGISTICAL COSTS AND RISKS OF MARKETING GENETICALLY MODIFIED WHEAT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Schlecht,   Shannon M.; Wilson,   William W.; Dahl,   Bruce L.
Genetically modified (GM) grains have increased in importance.  Moving biotech grains from producers to processors is a challenge for the grain handling system that could involve increased segregations.  The objective of this research is to determine how testing strategies affect the logistical costs of a grain pipeline when GM wheat is present.  A logistical model was developed and simulated to analyze impacts of uncertainty in demand, receipts, test accuracy, rail deliveries, and transit time.  Sensitivities were conducted on certain variables to determine their effects on logistical costs.  Analysis revealed that logistical costs are impacted by the number of quality categories and uncertainties in the system.  Adding GM grains increased costs due to...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Genetically Modified (GM) Grains; Logistical Costs; Testing; Risk; Segregation; Crop Production/Industries; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23581

Changes in Management Can Improve Returns from Cambodian Upland Crops
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Farquharson,   Robert J.; Sareth,   Chea; Somrangchittra,   Chapho; Martin,   Robert J.; Haigh,   Bruce M; Scott,   J. Fiona; Sopheap,   Ung.
Farming systems research for wet-season non-rice upland crops in Cambodia is being conducted with the overall aim of poverty reduction and food security for farmers in the Provinces of Battambang and Kampong Cham. Some of these cash crops exhibit low and variable incomes, especially when grown in the early wet season. Cambodian farmers may borrow money to buy crop inputs and often sell their produce to companies and traders from neighbouring countries, hence they are price takers. Some new crop technologies are evaluated which relate to soil and crop fertility management interacting with climatic factors. The DSSAT crop simulation model is used to predict outcomes from alternative management strategies. Bio-economic analyses are conducted to assess the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Upland crops; Cambodia; Technology; Economics; Simulation; Risk; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25602

Strategic Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Innovation and New Technology Introduction during Volatile Times1
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Boehlje,   Michael; Roucan-Kane,   Maud.
www.ifama.org
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Deere and Company; Uncertainty; Real option; Organizational structure; Option; Risk; Innovation; Industrial Organization; Risk and Uncertainty; Q1.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92576

Contracting for Canola in the Great Plains States
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wilson,   William W.; Dahl,   Bruce L.
Canola has become an important crop in the last decade in the U.S. Production of canola is risky and competes with other crops which have a range of risk reduction mechanisms. Alternative contracting strategies were evaluated by comparing returns to labor and management for growers and gross margins for processors. Alternative contracting strategies included no contract, fixed price with and without act of god provisions, and an oil premium contract. Grower returns and processor gross margins were simulated and resulting distributions were evaluated using stochastic efficiency with respect to a function. We estimated certainty equivalents and ranked contract preferences for both growers and processors by region in North Dakota. Grower and processor risk...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Canola; Grower; Processor; Contracting; Risk; Stochastic Efficiency (SERF).; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95751

2011 North Dakota Agricultural Outlook: Representative Farms, 2011-2020
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Taylor,   Richard D.; Koo,   Won W.; Swenson,   Andrew L.
Net farm income in North Dakota was at record levels for most representative farms in 2010. However income in 2020 is projected to be lower than in 2010. Commodity prices are expected to decrease slowly from current levels. Commodity yields are projected to increase at historical trend-line rates and production expenses are expected to return to normal growth rates. Debt-to-asset ratios for all farms except for the low profit farm will decrease slightly throughout the forecast period. Debt-to-asset ratios for the low-profit farms are expected to increase slightly.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Net farm income; Debt-to-asset ratios; Cropland prices; Land rental rates; Farm operating expenses; Capitalization rate; Risk; Agricultural Finance; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115629

Some possibilities for risk analysis in the decision support of crop production
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nagy,   Lajos.
This article has been made according to my dissertation in which I present some opportunity of risk analysis and risk management in the decision support of crop production. Plant production is one of the most hazardous agricultural enterprises. Among risk sources seasonal fluctuation of average yields plays an important role in the assessment of enterprises. Therefore, I analyzed the production risk of the produced crops in Hungary compared to the European Union’s, after that I took into consideration the production site’s circumstances as well. Decision-makers must possess such means, by which they can measure, oversee and manage the effects and consequences of risk. In crop production linear programming models can be used to determine the optimal crop...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk; Crop production; Decision support; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49232

TRADING UNDER RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN AN AGRICULTURAL WATER MARKET IN CHILE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hadjigeorgalis,   Ereney.
Risk and uncertainty in a water market will generate trading patterns that differ from those expected under conditions of perfect foresight.  Although trades will occur based on differences in VMPs of water in both markets, they will also be generated by differences in risk.  Some farmers will choose to reduce relative risk by purchasing additional water rights whereas others will hold few rights and rely on the spot market to meet their needs in dry years.  Since spot markets are riskier than permanent rights markets, farmers who are better able to bear risk are more likely to participate in the spot market than those who are not.  Farmers who face less risk will be sellers in both markets whereas farmers who face more risk will be buyers.  Perennial crop...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Uncertainty; Water markets; Spot markets; Permanent rights markets; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21494

ELEMENTS OF CATTLE FEEDING PROFITABILITY IN MIDWEST FEEDLOTS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lawrence,   John D.; Wang,   Zhi; Loy,   Daniel D.
Conventional wisdom and earlier research have concluded that cattle feeding profitability is more determined by feeder and fed cattle prices than by animal performance. This study examined cross-sectional and time-series data from over 1600 pens of cattle in more than 220 feedlots in the upper Midwest where weather and lot conditions are thought to influence feedlot profitability. In addition to input and output prices and animal performance, other factors found to significantly impact cattle feeding profitability were sex, placement weight, facility design, and to a lesser extent placement season.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Cattle feedlots; Probability; Risk; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15377

Profil de pauvreté et filets de sécurité des riziculteurs dans les zones d’introduction des NERICA au Togo : cas de la région des plateaux
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Komi,   Tsogonnin.
Cette étude vise à évaluer l’état de pauvreté des riziculteurs en vue d’apprécier leurs capacités de gestion des risques auxquels ils sont exposés. Une enquête a permis de collecter des données dans 14 villages sur un échantillon de 183 ménages riziculteurs dans la région des plateaux au Togo. La formule de Foster Greer et de Thorbecke (FGT) a été utilisée pour calculer les indicateurs de pauvreté au sein de ces ménages. Les indicateurs de pauvreté sont élevés et témoignent l’extrême pauvreté qui règne au sein de ces ménages. L’incidence de la pauvreté, la profondeur de la pauvreté et la sévérité de la pauvreté sont respectivement 92,59%, 14,90% et 7,51% pour les producteurs de NERICA contre 96,15%, 32,50% et 12,73% pour les autres producteurs. Les...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Pauvreté; Dépenses de consommations; Ménage; NERICA; Risque; Filets de sécurité; Poverty; Consumer expenditure; Household; NERICA; Risk; Safety nets; Crop Production/Industries; Food Security and Poverty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97091

Social Cost-Benefit Analysis of Scientific Versus Traditional Shrimp Farming: A Case Study from India
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bhattacharya,   Poulomi; Ninan,   K.N.
This paper attempts a social cost-benefit analysis of scientific versus traditional shrimp farming in West Bengal, India. Using primary data, the paper shows that although intensive or scientific shrimp farming yields high returns as compared to traditional shrimp farming, when the opportunity costs and environmental costs of shrimp farming including disease risk are accounted for, scientific shrimp farming loses its advantage. In fact sensitivity analysis shows that if expected benefits were to fall short by 15% and costs rise by a similar proportion, scientific shrimp farmers report higher losses than traditional shrimp farmers. But large traditional shrimp farmers continue to report positive net returns. These results are also most pronounced for small...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Shrimp Farming; Social Cost-Benefit Analysis; Net Present Value; Benefit- Cost ratio; Environmental costs; Opportunity cost; Risk; Environmental Economics and Policy; Livestock Production/Industries; Q22; Q51.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51227

TOWARDS MEASURING PRODUCER WELFARE UNDER OUTPUT PRICE UNCERTAINTY AND RISK NON-NEUTRALITY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bullock,   David S.; Shin,   Kie-Yup; Garcia,   Philip.
We combine theory with numerical integration methods to show that for any form of uncompensated supply, compensating variation of a change in higher moments of an output price distribution can be numerically derived.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Producer welfare; Price uncertainty; Risk; Demand and Price Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21713

ESTIMATING THE EFFECTS OF FACTORS INFLUENCING GRID PRICING REVENUE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Schroeder,   Ted C.; Coffey,   Brian K.; Brester,   Gary W.
Beef carcasses, carcass premiums, carcass discounts, and grain prices are simulated.  Random carcasses are priced according to random sets of market conditions defining a distribution of total and net revenues.  Sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the total effect on revenue and net revenue of managing any of the interrelated carcass traits.  Keywords: grid pricing, risk, simulation
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Grid pricing; Risk; Simulation; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36604

Stabilization of Upland Agriculture under El Nino-Induced Climatic Risks: Regional and Farm Level Risk Management and Coping Mechanisms in the Kedah-Perlis Region, Malaysia
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tawang,   Ariffin; Tengku Ahmad,   Tengku bin Ariff.
This study is an extension of the earlier study with a focus on the impact of the El Nino induced weather changes at the regional and farm levels. It provides a complete continuum of the impacts and implications of El Nino from the national to the regional and farm levels. Hence, the general objective of the study is to determine the impact of El Nino induced climate variability on agriculture at the sub-national and farm level, and to identify appropriate mechanisms to mitigate the impact so as to ensure the stability of the agricultural contribution to the regional and farm economy. In this study, the northwest region of Peninsular Malaysia was chosen as the region under study. It comprises of the states of Kedah and Perlis. The main climatic feature of...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Climatic change; Risk; Agricultural products; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32695

Mainstreaming Safety Nets in the Social Protection Policy Agenda: A New Vision or the Same Old Perspective?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gentilini,   Ugo.
Social protection aims to provide a national platform for smoothly transitioning from a chaotic collection of shock responses to an institutionalized system for risk and non-risk management. For the poorest, the transition aims to move away from ad hoc, unpredictable relief to national safety nets that deliver timely, multi-year, guaranteed and predictable transfers. Social protection has to face particular challenges in chronically poor, shock-prone countries where the distinction between the chronic and transitory poor is often blurred. Other conceptual and programmatic issues also need further investigation. For filling these gaps, a research agenda articulated in ten thematic areas is proposed.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Vulnerability; Risk; Shocks; Social protection; Safety nets; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/110132

The Effect of Changing Government Subsidy Programs: An Analysis of Revenue at the Farm level
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Coble,   Keith H.; Thomas,   Sarah E.; Miller,   J. Corey.
Producer revenue is simultaneously simulated for several hundred county-specific representative farms.  The effects of current and alternative commodity programs are analyzed.  In particular, two variations of revenue-triggered programs similar to plans proposed by the National Corn Growers Association are evaluated.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Commodity policy; Simulation; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q180.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34931

COSTS AND RISKS OF TESTING AND SEGREGATING GM WHEAT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wilson,   William W.; Dahl,   Bruce L.
Development of genetically modified crops is challenging the functions of the grain marketing system with many participants arguing for Identity Preservation systems prior to release of GM varieties.  In this study, a stochastic optimization model was developed to determine optimal testing strategies.  The model chooses the optimal testing strategy that maximizes utility (minimizes disutility) of additional system costs due to testing and rejection and allows estimation of the risk premium required for sellers to undertake a dual marketing system with GM/Non-GM segregations over the current Non-GM system.  Elements of costs (testing costs, rejection costs, and risk premium) were estimated for a base model representing a grain export chain.  The model...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Genetically modified organisms; Biotechnology; Wheat; Risk; Segregation; Identity preservation; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23480

Análise de risco de sistemas de produção de suínos, integrado e independente, em períodos de alta e baixa rentabilidade
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rocha,   Denis Teixeira da; Moura,   Altair Dias de; Girotto,   Ademir Francisco.
This research analyzed the integrated and independent systems of pork production in Brazil, using multiple case studies, which focused on confined and complete-cycle producing units of swines, in the high and low profits periods of the activity. The study focused on the pork production of the State of Santa Catarina (SC), Brazilian’s greatest producer of swines, and presenting the predominance of integrated production, and on the Vale do Piranga (MG) region, one of the main Brazilian regions of the independent production system. The work analyzed the yield of the two systems of pork production through the analysis of the performance of each system in different scenarios. The costs and incomes (economic efficiency) of six producing pork farms, in which...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk; Production system; Pork production; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54593

INCORPORATING RISK IN EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Shaik,   Saleem; Helmers,   Glenn A.
Using a non-parametric linear programming approach, our contribution is (1) to examine the impact of incorporating risk in efficiency analysis and (2) to compare the efficiency measures with and without risk for continuous and rotation cropping systems.  The model uses Nebraska cropping system data for the period, 1986-2000.  Results indicate lower efficiency gains are realized with the incorporation of risk.  The t-test at the 5% level of significance examining if efficiency measures are significantly different from one is also reported.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Efficiency; Non-parametric; Cropping Systems; Risk and Uncertainty; O3; C6; Q1.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35063

Australia’s biosecurity: future challenges for animal industries
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nunn,   Mike J.
Australia’s very good animal health status faces a wide range of biosecurity challenges that will arise during the next decade from changes in disease risk, ecosystems, technology and the policy environment in which animal producers operate. An understanding of these challenges should help enable producers to adopt management strategies to make their enterprises more resilient, as well as help policy-makers make better-informed choices to maintain and improve the health of Australia’s animals and animal industries.
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Animal health; Biosecurity; Climate change; Ecosystem change; Emerging diseases; Environmental change; Policy; Risk; Risk analysis; Technology; Farm Management.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122900

Managing Risk in Farming: Concepts, Research, and Analysis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Harwood,   Joy L.; Heifner,   Richard G.; Coble,   Keith H.; Perry,   Janet E.; Somwaru,   Agapi.
The risks confronted by grain and cotton farmers are of particular interest, given the changing role of the Government after passage of the 1996 Farm Act.  With the shift toward less government intervention in the post-1996 Farm Act environment, a more sophisticated understanding of risk and risk management is important to help producers make better decisions in risky situations and to assist policymakers in assessing the effectiveness of different types of risk protection tools. In response, this report provides a rigorous, yet accessible, description of risk and risk management tools and strategies at the farm level. It also provides never-before-published data on farmers' assessments of the risks they face, their use of alternative risk management...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Diversification; Futures contracts; Leasing; Leveraging; Liquidity; Livestock insurance; Marketing contracts; Options contracts; Production contracts; Revenue insurance; Risk; Vertical integration; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34081

The Southern Region Risk Management Education Center (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Stokes,   Kenneth W.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Research; Research opportunities; Research support; Risk and Uncertainty; D80.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48982

Punting Lamb
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jackson,   T.; Malcolm,   Bill.
We present in clear, readable terms how to understand the risky aspects of a ewe purchase decision. Expected lamb prices in the future are an important driver of ewe prices now. We derive easy methods of determining the relationship between future lamb prices and current ewe prices. This lends to an evaluation of rules of thumb showing that the 'bet' and the 'odds' are keys to good investment.
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Ewe prices; Lamb prices; Purchase; Risk; Farm Management.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120910

Analysis of the Adoption of Irrigation Technologies Under Uncertain Water Availability
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Escribano,   Maria Jesus; Calatrava-Leyva,   Javier.
This paper analyses the adoption process of water-conserving irrigation technologies by a risk averse farmer in a context of uncertain water availability. Firstly, it is analytically shown that the increase in water efficiency that the new technology allows results in a decrease in the cost of the effective irrigation water applied, as well as in an increase in both effective water applied and crop production. It is also concluded that the optimal amount of irrigation water applied depends on individual risk preferences of the producer, on the variance and asymmetry of the cost of water applied, and on the elasticity of the marginal productivity of the effective water applied. Lastly, it is theoretically shown that an increase in the level of uncertainty...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Irrigation technology; Adoption; Risk; Water availability; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q25; Q12; D81.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24672

Revisiting N fertilisation rates in low-rainfall grain cropping regions of Australia: A risk analysis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Monjardino,   Marta; McBeath,   T.; Brennan,   Lisa E.; Llewellyn,   Rick S.
Mallee farmers minimize downside risk in dry seasons by applying low rates of nitrogen (N) fertiliser to their cereal crops. The opportunity to respond to and capitalize on the better years is further limited as most inputs are applied upfront at sowing. We used an economic-risk decision model to identify a range of tactical N fertilisation options that increase net returns, while minimising risk for farmers with different risk attitudes. Importantly, we concluded that when accounting for long-term risks affecting farmers, the use of higher N rates can play a risk-reducing role in a highly variable environment like the Mallee.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Nitrogen; Risk; Variance; Crop simulation; Economic net returns; Decision analysis; Zone management; Monte Carlo; Mallee; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124339

RISK AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN AGRICULTURE: HOW INCOME SHOCKS INFLUENCE FARM SIZE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Roberts,   Michael J.; Key,   Nigel D.
Farm-level Census data and county-level income shock data reveal that past unexpected income shocks affect the rate of change in average farm size. Average farm size increases more quickly in counties experiencing negative income shocks as compared to counties experiencing positive income shocks. This result cannot be explained by perfect-market models, which predict farm size should adjust according to changes in the relative prices of labor and capital. We posit a model wherein cash flows affect liquidity, which in turn affects farm borrowing and capital costs.  In the model, farms that do not face liquidity constraints benefit from negative income shocks because they reduce land values, so these farms expand while liquidity-constrained farms contract....
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farm size; Farm structure; Income shocks; Liquidity constraint; Risk; Agricultural Finance; Industrial Organization.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19661

Certainty Equivalent Farm Returns from Bt and Non-Bt Cotton
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Banerjee,   Swagata (Ban); Martin,   Steven W.
Replaced with revised version of paper 02/14/06.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Bt cotton; Certainty equivalent; Insecticide; Refuge; Returns; Risk; Simulated yield; Spray; Farm Management.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35383

A STUDY OF THE CAUSES LEADING TO THE LIQUIDATION OF AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kotorman,   Annamaria.
The viability of agricultural enterprises is of paramount importance. Their liquidation has harmful effects on broad strata of society. The aim of my research is therefore to analyze the leading causes of liquidation of agricultural enterprises. The research was led on 17 agricultural enterprises. This may help in the prevention and treatment of their insolvency. The research results show that a long-term agricultural production is not sustainable with a low equity capital. For the long-term maintenance it is necessary that the investors establish the enterprise with a capital according to the type of the production. The loan can not replace the entrepreneurs own resources, it is only complementary to it. The owners of agricultural businesses should strive...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural enterprises; Liquidation; Capital lost; Risk; Crisis management; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53580

A Methodological Review of the Impacts of Risk and Trust on Consumer Behaviour Towards Food Safety
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lobb,   Alexandra E.
Consumers' attitudes to trust and risk are key issues in food safety research and attention needs to be focused on clearly defining a framework for analysing consumer behaviour in these terms. By creating a platform, or benchmark, it is hoped that more succinct policy programmes may be initiated to better communicate relevant issues to consumers. In order to achieve this, a detailed review of the recent literature surrounding risk, trust and, the relationship between the two must be conducted. This paper aims to collate the literature in the fields of consumer attitudes to trust and risk. It provides an insight into the economic and other modelling procedures available to measure consumers' attitudes to risk and trust in food safety and specifically notes...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Trust; Risk; Consumer attitudes; Food safety; Consumer/Household Economics; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24994

Use of strategies and decision rules by Australian wool producers to manage uncertainty
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Murray-Prior,   Roy B.; Wright,   Vic.
Decisions by Australian wool producers were modelled with a technique combining personal construct psychology and hierarchical decision models. Both strategic and tactical approaches were evident in wool producers’ responses to the risks associated with producing and marketing their wool. Strategic responses included avoiding short to medium-term response to price changes, diversification, maintaining equity and selling wool at auction in the same sale each year. Producers identified many types of risk, with each engendering a distinctive response. Similarly the context of a decision appeared to have a major influence on the attitude to risk. Simplifying decision rules were apparent that helped producers deal with the physical, information, and processing...
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Hierarchical decision models; Risk; Uncertainty; Ambiguity; Strategy; Wool; Farm Management.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120919

Do Antibiotics Reduce Production Risk for U.S. Pork Producers?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Liu,   Xuanli; Miller,   Gay Y.; McNamara,   Paul E.
We combine econometric and financial analyses of the NAHMS 2000 Swine Survey data to examine whether evidence exists for reducing risk by using antibiotics for growth promotion (AGP) in the U.S. swine industry. A stochastic dominance analysis of alternative lengths of time (days) of AGP application reveals that AGP used in the range of 65—75 days is preferred by risk-averse producers. Risk is reduced and profits are increased from use of AGP. The combined impacts of increased average daily gain and decreased variability in pig live weight increase producer profits by $2.99 per pig marketed.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Antibiotics; Growth promotion; Pigs; Risk; Stochastic dominance; Variability; D21; D61; D81; Q12; R32.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42785

Exclusivity of Agrifood Supply Chains: Seven Fundamental Economic Characteristics
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sporleder,   Thomas L.; Boland,   Michael A.
The IFAMR is published by the International Food and Agribusiness Management Association. IFAMA. www.ifama.org
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Agrifood supply chains; Exclusive economic characteristics; Risk; Market power; Globalization; Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty; Q130.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119969

PROFIL DE PAUVRETE ET FILETS DE SECURITE DES RIZICULTEURS DANS LES ZONES D’INTRODUCTION DES NERICA AU TOGO: cas des régions du nord-Togo
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gnatoulouma,   Takpa; Koffi-Tessio,   Egnonto M.; Diagne,   Aliou.
La présente étude a pour objectif une évaluation de l’état de pauvreté des riziculteurs du nord-Togo dans les zones d’introduction des NERICA en vue d’apprécier leurs capacités de résistance aux risques naturels et économiques. Pour parvenir à cette fin, des données primaires collectées sur la base d’une enquête effectuée auprès de 255 ménages dans 20 villages dans les régions centrale et de la Kara, ont été analysées par la méthode de FOSTER GREER et THORBECKE basée sur les dépenses de consommation. L’incidence, la profondeur et la sévérité, sont respectivement de 88,37%, 31% et 12,98%. Le niveau de pauvreté est pratiquement le même aussi bien chez les producteurs de NERICA que les producteurs des variétés. The present study’s objective is an evaluation...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Pauvreté; Filet de sécurité; Risque; Riziculteur; Ménage; NERICA; Dépense de consommation; Poverty; Safety nets; Risk; Rice grower; Household; NERICA; Consumer expenditure; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97331

Workshop Report: Advancing the Art of Analyzing Risks and Benefits of Dredged Material Management
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wilson,   James D.
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has been delegated responsibility for assuring the navigability of waters designated for that purpose in the United States. Dredging is among the activities required to fulfill this responsibility. In some places, the Corps finds difficulty in carrying out dredging projects because it lacks spaces where the sediments that must be removed ("dredged materials") can be placed or otherwise managed. In these cases, the public has expressed concerns about the impacts of dredged materials on the environment, either underwater or on land ("upland"). Thus, the Corps often finds it necessary to be able to evaluate and describe the costs or risks and the benefits of the possible alternatives that may be available. Scientists and...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Dredging; Risk; Benefit; Cost; Analysis; Characterization; Accidents; Mixtures; Sediments; Non-use benefits; Decision tools; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10617

Second-Order Ambiguity in Very Low Probability Risks: Food Safety Valuation
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kivi,   Paul A.; Shogren,   Jason F.
Food consumption involves inherently risky decisions with uncertain probabilities. This study examines how second-order ambiguity, or uncertainty over probabilities, affects food safety decisions. We conduct a food safety survey wherein subjects face both unambiguous and ambiguous situations, each with the same expected value. Respondents show a preference for unambiguous situations and state a willingness to pay to avoid ambiguity
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Ambiguity; Ambiguity avoidance; Expected utility theory; Food safety; Low probability events; Risk; Second-order probabilities; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97857

On the (Mis)Use of Wealth as a Proxy for Risk Aversion (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bellemare,   Marc F.; Brown,   Zachary S.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk aversion; Risk; Decision-making; Risk and Uncertainty; D81.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48913

Volatilidade dos retornos econômicos associados à integração lavoura-pecuária no estado do Paraná
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lazzarotto,   Joelsio Jose; Santos,   Maurinho Luiz dos; Lima,   Joao Eustaquio de; Moraes,   Anibal de.
In the Brazilian agriculture, there is a great diversity and heterogeneity of production systems that are subject to wide number of factors of risks. Although these risks cannot be completely eliminated, they can be minimized by adopting some strategies, as the diversification with agricultural and cattle activities. Based on the research historical results of the Paraná’s agriculture e with the measurement of the value-at-risk, this work aimed to analyze the volatility of the economic returns of integrated crop-beef cattle systems compared to systems characterized by grain cultivation or beef cattle specialization. As results, we observed that, in the short-term, the integrated crop-livestock system is the alternative that trends to generate better...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm systems; Risk; Value-at-risk; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56860

Veggies 4U's Energy Pricing Dilemma
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Braga,   Francesco S.
Veggies 4U is a young and dynamic family-run greenhouse: Lucy and her husband run the business with the help of a small group of friends and colleagues who serve on the company's Board of Directors. Lucy is preparing a report to the Board to recommend a natural gas supply contract for the next three years. The company has received four different contract offers, ranging from a simple forward contract, to a maximum cost contract with a price floor. The case focuses on the pricing and risk management opportunities offered by an integrated North American natural gas market. Lucy has to assess the different supply contract offers received by the company and to reverse engineer them in order to benchmark their cost with that of potential synthetic alternatives...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Energy price risk; Natural gas supply contract; Financial engineering; Risk; Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8138

A Dynamic Risk Optimization Model for Evaluating Profitable and Feasible Water Management Plans
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Grove,   Bennie; Oosthuizen,   L.K.; Backeberg,   G.R.
Currently the South African government is advocating the cultivation of high valued crops and more efficient use of available water resources through the adoption o f more efficient irrigation technology and irrigation scheduling. A requirement of the National Water Act (Act 36 of 1998) is the compilation of water management plans. The main objective of this paper is to develop a multiperiod mathematical risk programming model able of assisting water user associations with the compilation of water management plans that are both profitable and feasible. Special care was taken to represent canal capacities and irrigation system application rates in the model. Risk simulation procedures are used to generate an appropriately correlated inter- and...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Dynamic Linear Programming; Risk; Irrigation; Feasibility; South Africa; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C6; Q15; Q12.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25554

Machinery-Sharing Contractual Issues and Impacts on Cash Flows of Agribusinesses
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wolfley,   Jared L.; Mjelde,   James W.; Klinefelter,   Danny A.; Salin,   Victoria.
Contractual arrangements for joint machinery ownership between independent agribusinesses are explored. A two-farm economic simulation model of locations in Texas, Colorado, and Montana is developed to provide insight associated with sharing combines. Important variables include combine size (efficiency), yield losses resulting from untimely access to equipment, the penalty structure for untimely delivery, and cost-sharing and depreciation deductions claimed between producers. Combine sharing is risk-reducing in most cases. The gains to both parties are lowest when harvesting periods overlap. While the value of sharing is positive under many scenarios, benefits from sharing are small relative to total farm revenue.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Combines; Machinery sharing; Risk; Simulation; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/105536

The Demand for Specialty-Crop Insurance: Adverse Selection and Inefficiency
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Richards,   Timothy J.; Mischen,   Pamela.
The twin problems of moral hazard and adverse selection are often blamed for the lack of insurance for many fruits and vegetables. This paper develops an alternative method of testing for adverse selection that uses a two-stage approach to determine the effects of technical inefficiency on the demand for insurance. With this approach, technical inefficiency is interpreted as an indicator of adverse selection. Because there is no active insurance market for many specialty crops, and thin markets for those that are insurable, a contingent valuation approach is used to obtain the data necessary to estimate the demand for three different types of insurance. The results suggest adverse selection may be a deterrent to the viability of extending the breadth of...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Contingent valuation; Crop insurance; Fruits and vegetables; Moral hazard; Risk; Uncertainty; Agribusiness; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90435

Food Safety. Commodity Science Point of View
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zalewski,   Romuald I.; Skawinska,   Eulalia.
The paper addresses "food safety" and 'food quality' from the position of commodity and food science rather than economy. The various descriptions of both terms in literature are reviewed in connection with customer/supplier ability to evaluate food safety and quality by examination of various characteristics. Food safety has been described as opposite to food risk. Differences in perception of food risk by customer, producer/supplier and official agencies are discussed in this paper. The objective safety (and quality) of food can be evaluated using three categories of food risk (biological, chemical and physical) measured on a seven step intensity scale by producers and official agencies but not by customers. This leads to formulating food safety policy...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Food safety; Food quality; Risk; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Q13; Q18; M31.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25734

An Economic Risk Analysis of Stocker Grazing on Conservation Tillage Small Grains Forage in Arkansas
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Watkins,   K. Bradley; Hignight,   Jeffrey A.; Beck,   Paul A.; Anders,   Merle M.; Hubbell,   Donald S., III; Gadberry,   Shane.
This study evaluates both the profitability and risk efficiency of grazing stocker steers on conservation tillage winter wheat pasture using simulation and stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF). Average daily gains are simulated for steers grazed on conventional tillage (CT), reduced tillage (RT) and no-till (NT) winter wheat pasture.  Steer price distributions and prices for key production inputs such as diesel, fertilizer, and glyphosate are also simulated. Stocker steer net return distributions by tillage treatment are constructed and ranked for risk efficiency using SERF.  The results indicate the NT system is the most profitable and most risk efficient of the three tillage systems, followed by the RT system. Both conservation tillage...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: No-till; Profitability; Reduced tillage; Risk; SERF; Stocker grazing; Winter wheat; Farm Management; Production Economics.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56356

THE VALUE OF PLANTING FLEXIBILITY PROVISIONS IN THE 1990 FARM BILL TO THREE REPRESENTATIVE TEXAS FARMS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chien,   Ming-Che; Leatham,   David J.
The 1990 Farm Bill reduces deficiency payments but also provides more planting flexibility for program participants.  In this study, a mean-standard deviation analysis is used to analyze the impacts of planting flexibility provisions on crop selection decisions, farm returns, and farm risk.  Results show that gains from the added planting flexibility do not offset the mandatory loss in the deficiency payments for program participants.  Planting flexibility will lead to an increase in corn and wheat planted in the Northern Plains and an increase in cotton planted in the Rolling Plains and Coastal Bend, Texas.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Planting flexibility; Farm programs; Risk; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 1994
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15418

Is geographic diversification sufficient to limit contract grower risk?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Geyser,   Mariette; Louw,   Andre; Botha,   L.
Lending and financial institutions have looked for a variety of ways to expand their portfolios into agriculture, but because of the risks associated with lending to farmers who lack traditional forms of collateral, they face price and yield risks, causing these inroads to be limited. Market-based instruments are readily available for price risk. Organised exchanges offering the most basic of these instruments, futures and options, have operated for a long time, providing transparency to the market and low-cost risk transfer tools for those able to access them. While the use of price risk management instruments is an incomplete solution, it has sufficient merits on its own and will make the overall burden of risk more bearable. The use of these instruments...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Geographic diversification; Contract grower; Risk; Lending; Rainfall; Yield; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49163

DEBUNKING THE MYTHS OF GM CROPS FOR AFRICA: THE CASE OF BT MAIZE IN KENYA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Odhiambo,   Benjamin; Bergvinson,   David; Mugo,   Stephen; De Groote,   Hugo.
Empirical evidence from research on Bt maize in Kenya puts to rest most concerns raised against GMOs (not responding to farmers' needs, expensive, benefiting agro-business, risk of decreased biodiversity), but does indicate that contamination of local varieties is likely and buildup of insect resistance possible, requiring careful monitoring and evaluation.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: GMO; Maize; Kenya; Risk; Environment; Crop Production/Industries; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19918

A financial analysis of the impact of sheep on the risks and returns associated with mixed enterprise dryland farming in south-eastern Australia: Part II
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hutchings,   Timothy R.
This paper extends the long-term cash-flow simulations reported in Part I (Hutchings 2009) to include a range of seasonal scenarios at four representative dryland sites in south-eastern Australia. The effect of varying the proportion of sheep and cropping in the enterprise mix at each site on cash surpluses is discussed. The analysis shows that, for most sites, the cropping enterprises require better than average seasons, prices and water-use efficiencies to generate a positive cash flow and are subject to substantial variability and risk of loss. In contrast, the sheep enterprises show small but stable cash flows in all but extreme drought conditions. This paper emphasises the need to include site-specific, long-term variability and whole-farm costs in...
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Whole-farm planning; Cash flow; Sheep; Crops; Risk; Farm Management.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121495

WHY WAS ACRE A NO-GO WITH IOWA FARMERS?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Edwards,   William M.
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: ACRE; Risk; Commodity; Program; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q18.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120005

The adoption of innovative cropping systems under price and production risks: a dynamic model of crop rotation choice
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ridier,   Aude; Chaib,   Karim; Roussy,   Caroline.
In the paper we investigate the role played by both production and market risks on farmer’s decision to adopt long rotations (over 2 years), considered as innovative cropping systems. We build a multiperiod dynamic farm model (run under GAMS) that arbitrates each year between traditional and innovative rotations. With discrete stochastic programming, the production risk is accounted as an intra-year risk; yearly farming operations are declined according to a decision tree where probabilities are assigned. Subjective yield and cost distributions linked to this decision tree are elicited among a sample of 13 farmers that are experiencing this innovation in South-western France. The price risk is randomly distributed with a given market trend. The crop...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Innovative cropping systems; Dynamic model; Crop rotation decision; Risk; Subjective probabilities; Risk and Uncertainty; C61; D0; Q12; Q55.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122440

VIABILIDADE FINANCEIRA DA PRODUÇÃO DE FEIJÃO NO SISTEMA AUTOMATIZADO DE IRRIGAÇÃO
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Silva,   Eduardo Luis da; Ferreira,   Marco Aurelio Marques; Abrantes,   Luiz Antonio; Costa,   Thiago De Melo Teixeira Da.
Esse trabalho teve como objetivo verificar a viabilidade financeira da implementação de um sistema automatizado de irrigação por miniaspersão na cultura do feijão. O trabalho toma como referência a teoria de análise financeira de investimentos, considerando a abordagem determinística e probabilística. Os dados relativos à produtividade do feijoeiro, ao sistema de irrigação por miniaspersão, bem como os coeficientes técnicos, os custos de produção e as receitas de venda foram baseados em experimentos e coletas de dados realizados por pesquisadores da UFV. Diante dos resultados, pode-se concluir que tanto nos cenários determinístico e probabilístico, o projeto de irrigação por miniaspersão na cultura de feijão apresenta-se viável. O projeto é...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Investimento; Agronegócios; Risco; Feijão; Automação; Investment; Agrobusiness; Risk; Bean; Automation; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/112721

Incorporating issues of risk and uncertainty into Choice Modelling experiments
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wang,   Xuehong; Rolfe,   John.
Many policy issues, as well as policy funding and management choices, have elements of risk and uncertainty. This means that choice experiments, such as those used in choice modelling (CM), may need to frame trade-offs so that risk and uncertainty are included.  This research aims to explore some methodological approaches to identify and treat uncertainty in CM experiments. A review of theoretical models, as well as a case study application in the CM technique reported by Roberts et al. (2008), suggests that including uncertainty information in the choice sets should influence responses significantly. However, key challenges remain to define and describe the elements of risk and uncertainty that are to be included in a choice experiment, to communicate the...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Choice experiments; Risk; Uncertainty; Information; Framing.; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94812

Farmers' Post-Harvest Grain Management Choices under Liquidity Constraints and Impending Risks: Implications for Achieving Food Security Objectives in Ethiopia
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gabriel,   Abebe H.; Hundie,   Bekele.
The purpose of this paper is to explore into the relationships between farmers' post-harvest grain management practices/capacities on the one hand, and liquidity constraints and impending risks on the other, in the context of achieving food security objective at household and national levels. The findings are primarily based on a household survey data from 300 randomly selected major food grain producing peasant households in three rural districts of Ethiopia. Results indicate that farmers perceived post-harvest grain loss as an imminent risk, and that instant sales of grains after harvest are triggered by temporary but immediate liquidity preferences to meet various obligations in the absence of or limited sources of cash other than crops sales, and by an...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Post-harvest; Liquidity; Risk; Grain loss; Grain sales; Price fluctuations; Crop Production/Industries; Food Security and Poverty; Q12; Q13; Q18.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25716

2007 North Dakota Agricultural Outlook: Representative Farms, 2007-2016
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Taylor,   Richard D.; Koo,   Won W.; Swenson,   Andrew L.
Net farm income for nearly all representative farms in 2016 is projected to be higher than in 2006.  Low-profit farms, which comprise 20% of the farms in the study, may not have financial resiliency to survive without off-farm income.  Commodity prices and yields are projected to increase slightly faster than costs, which will increase net farm income.  Cropland prices and cash rental rates are projected to increase slightly in all regions.  Debt-to-asset ratios for all farms will decrease slightly throughout the forecast period.  Debt-to-asset ratios for the low-profit farms are expected to remain near the 0.50 level.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Net farm income; Debt-to-asset ratios; Cropland prices; Land rental rates; Farm operating expenses; Capitalization rate; Risk; Agribusiness; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7641

A mixed-method approach for determining the risk and complexity farmers associate with using forward contracts
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jackson,   Elizabeth; Quaddus,   Mohammed; Islam,   Nazrul; Stanton,   John.
This paper reports on a model that was developed to understand the behavioural determinants surrounding farmers’ adoption of forward contracts for agricultural commodities.  Based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour and Diffusion of Innovations, 28 hypotheses within the model were written and then tested via a telephone survey that gathered 305 responses from Western Australian wool producers.  The data from the telephone survey were analysed using SPSS 14 and the Partial Least Squares approach to Structural Equation Modelling.  Most relationships within the model could be explained after rigorous quantitative analysis, however, further explanation was required to understand two final aspects of adoption behaviour: firstly, the sources of risk wool...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Complexity; Forward contracts; Structural equation modelling; Partial least squares; Risk and Uncertainty; Q120; Q130.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42305

Resource management under uncertainty: some informational issues
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Berck,   Peter.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Forest products; Forestry; Natural resources; Risk.
Ano: 1992
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43742

Uncertainty in Spanish Organic Products: A Global Analysis from Consumer to Entrepreneurs
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Briz,   Teresa; de Felipe,   Isabel.
The organic market is a very particular one. Starting from the premise that organic products are confidence and credibility products which cannot be easily differentiated from the rest, we find that consumers face a risk when purchasing them. In Spain, the marketing chain does not follow the conventional stages in most of the cases, so there is always some uncertainty about how the products will be sold. In addition, the great majority of the Spanish organic production is marketed abroad. In this paper we show some of the results of an investigation project in this topic.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Organic; Risk; Chain; Producer; Consumer; Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7735

Farm Profits from Stochastic and On-Farm Yields of Bt and Non-Bt Cotton in the Mississippi Delta
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Banerjee,   Swagata (Ban); Martin,   Steven W.; Wetzstein,   Michael E.
Copy on AgEcon Search replaced with a revised copy 2/14/06.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Bt cotton; Refuge; Returns; Risk; Simulated yield; Spray; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35653

Expanding the National Flood Insurance Program to Cover Coastal Erosion Damage
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Keeler,   Andrew G.; Kriesel,   Warren; Landry,   Craig E.
This paper uses the results of a nationwide survey of coastal property owners to estimate the demand for insurance against erosion damage.  The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) does not technically cover such damage, although in practice there is considerable uncertainty about this point.  The ability to insure against such losses has implications for the choice of beach management strategies and for NFIP management.  We find significant demand for insurance at prices in the range of current flood insurance premiums, although median willingness to pay appears to be less than cost of providing such insurance.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Coastal erosion; Insurance; Risk; Q24; G22; H41.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43199

Risco no mercado de arroz em casca
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Adami,   Andreia Cristina de Oliveira; Barros,   Geraldo Sant'Ana de Camargo.
O presente trabalho avaliou as características das séries de retornos, normalmente encontradas em séries financeiras, para dados do mercado de arroz em casca ao produtor do Rio Grande do Sul. Um modelo da classe GARCH (1,1) tipo VaR foi utilizado para obter previsões da variância condicional e verificar o risco incorrido pelas posições comprada e vendida no mercado de arroz em casca. Foram realizadas previsões fora da amostra do tipo VaR para o risco de mercado para um mês à frente (um passo a frente). A taxa de falha calculada foi de 6,45% - número de vezes que o valor observado excedeu o valor esperado – pois, o modelo falhou em 2 das 31 previsões obtidas, sendo que, uma das 31 previsões excedeu os menores valores previstos e 1 excedeu os maiores valores...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Arroz em casca; Risco; Mercados agrícolas; Variância condicional; Paddy; Risk; Agricultural markets; Conditional variance; Crop Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103101

POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THE ASIAN CLIMBING PERCH ON QUEENSLAND
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: East,   Miriam; Micke,   Wade.
Risk of establishment of the freshwater climbing perch (Anabas testudineus) in mainland Queensland from the Torres Strait is high. The species is dispersed through human assistance and/or attributes that assist its own spread. The species has the potential to out-compete native freshwater and estuarine species, and has sharp well-developed gill plates and spines that may choke and kill predatory species like barramundi if swallowed. The presence of climbing perch would severely impact Queensland’s inshore and freshwater fisheries, both commercial and recreational. The net present value of expected lost fishing activity due to build-up of the climbing perch is $48.5 million when the probability of introduction is 20 per cent. Analysis of potential spending...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Invasive species; Impact; Risk; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6018

A mezőgazdasági vállalkozások fizetésképtelenségének megelőzése
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kotorman,   Annamaria.
A mezőgazdasági vállalkozások felszámolásának kedvezőtlen káros hatásai a társadalom széles rétegeit érintik. A kutatás célja az agrárvállalkozások felszámolásához vezető okok elemzése 17 felszámolásra került mezőgazdasági gazdálkodó szervezetben, hogy a tanulságok előmozdítsák a fizetésképtelenség megelőzését és kezelését.  A vizsgált vállalkozásokban a likviditási gyorsráta, a saját tőke aránya és az eladósodottság mutatószámainak figyelemmel kísérése a fizetésképtelenség elkerülését segíthette volna. Megállapítható továbbá, hogy alacsony saját tőkével a mezőgazdasági termelés hosszú távon nem folytatható, ezért szükséges, hogy a befektetők a termelés jellegének megfelelő jegyzett tőkével alapítsanak vállalkozást, mert a hitelek felvétele nem pótolja,...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Mezőgazdaság; Vállalkozások; Felszámolás; Vagyonvesztés; Kockázat; Agriculture; Businesses; Liquidation; Loss of assets; Risk; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92492

Fiducial cost-benefit analysis research: with an application to weather modification
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Beare,   Stephen; Chambers,   Raymond.
Environmental intervention is often seen as being high risk and high return. Traditional scientific hypothesis testing provides limited guidance to policy makers unless there is a high level of certainty in the supporting scientific evidence. Traditional cost-benefit analysis under uncertainty has shortcomings when considering high-risk investment, largely due to the choice of how to discount uncertainty outcomes. A corollary is that traditional cost-benefit analysis does not place a value on increased certainty, an important outcome of successful scientific research. A fiducial costbenefit methodology is presented in this paper, which integrates hypothesis testing and traditional cost-benefit analysis. The fiducial approach is one way of objectively...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Cost-benefit; Risk; Uncertainty; Cost-benefit; Fiducial inference; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124232

DIAGNÓSTICO SÓCIO-ECONÔMICO E IMPLANTAÇÃO DE ARRANJO PRODUTIVO LOCAL (APL) DA BANANA ORGÂNICA NO RIO DE JANEIRO
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pereira,   Paulo Rodrigues Fernandes; Lima,   Luiz Carlos Oliveira; Funcke,   Andre Luis; Borsoi,   Tales Neri; Santos,   Rudislei.
O agronegócio do Leite desempenha um papel importante dentro do setor agropecuário; todavia, tem sofrido os efeitos das diversas políticas macroeconômicas e setoriais. De forma semelhante, o agronegócio do leite tem relevância para o estado de Rondônia. A característica da produção no Estado está centrada na monocultura familiar de baixa produtividade, donde é possível inferir que os riscos de produção são elevados. Isto posto, esse trabalho teve a finalidade mensurar o quão arriscado é a atividade de uma propriedade rural. Os resultados indicaram que os riscos são de fato bastante elevados; todavia, identificou-se que o fator gerencial é importante para os riscos permaneçam altos, ou seja, decisões gerenciais são capazes alterar esse quadro como elevar...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Leite; Risco; Rondônia; Gestão; Decisão; Milk; Risk; Rondonia; Management; Decision; Agribusiness; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108926

PROFITS AND RISK: FITTING AN OLD FRAMEWORK TO A NEW AGRICULTURE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wachenheim,   Cheryl J.; Saxowsky,   David M.
Textbooks in agricultural economics characterize resources used in production agriculture into four categories:  land, labor, capital, and entrepreneurial ability.  Profit is presented as earned by management.  This traditional list of resources is respecified.  Management is redefined as a specialized type of labor and two additional resources, information and risk bearing capacity, are added.  Profits accrue not to management but to those able to bear the risk inherent in production agriculture.  Equity diversification is a means for farmers to provide and manage this resource and, thus, earn economic profits.  Producer education and the repeal or amendment of legislation restricting the ability of farmers to diversify their equity investment are needed.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Equity diversification; Farm management; Information; Resources; Risk; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23532

Determinants of Participation in a Catastrophe Insurance Programme: Empirical Evidence from a Developing Country
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Akter,   Sonia; Brouwer,   Roy; Chowdhury,   Saria; Aziz,   Salina.
The paper presents empirical evidence of the determinants of catastrophe insurance participation in one of the poorest and most disaster prone countries in the world. In a large-scale household survey carried out in 2006 we ask 3,000 residents in six different districts in Bangladesh facing various environmental risk exposure levels about their willingness to participate in a catastrophe insurance programme. Combining factors put forward in risk theory and economics, we estimate a model of insurance participation. We show that the household decision to participate in the insurance programme differs depending on both exogenous and endogenous risk exposure levels. As predicted by micro-economic theory, ability to pay, measured in terms of household income...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Natural disasters; Catastrophe; Insurance; Participation; Risk; Bangladesh; Consumer/Household Economics; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Development; Risk and Uncertainty; Q54.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/5984

SUPPLY-SIDE RISKS AND MALTING BARLEY PROCUREMENT AND STORAGE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Johnson,   D. Demcey; DeVuyst,   Eric A.; Nganje,   William E.
U.S. production of six-rowed malting barley has declined sharply over the last several years.  Further, the quality of U.S. malting barley has suffered repeatedly due to disease. This has left the U.S. malting industry dependent on a single-desk seller of malting barley, the Canadian Wheat Board. In this paper, we develop a discrete stochastic programming model to analyze the procurement and storage decisions of the U.S. malting industry. We employ the model to investigate the impact that various sources of risk have on the industry's reliance on imported barley. The results indicate strategies that mitigate dependence on imports.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Barley; Discrete stochastic programming; Risk; International trade; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36367

ECONOMIC RISK AND THE STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS OF FARM BUSINESSES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Barry,   Peter J.; Escalante,   Cesar L.; Bard,   Sharon K.
Using longitudinal panel farm-level data, this study finds that income variability may be  materially influenced by farm size.  Econometric results suggest that policy analyses and other considerations of the distributional effects of, and response to, income variability for commercial scale family farms may concentrate on farm size and other structural variables.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Income variability; Farm size; Financial structure; Farm Management; Industrial Organization.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21778

Globally Flexible Modeling of County-Level Acreage Response for Primary U.S. Field Crops
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cooper,   Joseph C.; Arnade,   Carlos Anthony.
This study takes the standard acreage response model that stems from an expected utility framework, accounting for both price and yield variability, and nests it within a flexible semi-nonparametric (SNP) model consistent with farm-level decision models for computationally tractable results. We use county-level data to estimate the response of farmers’ planting preferences to changes in revenue and other variables.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Acreage response; Elasticities; Field crops; Semi-nonparametric; Risk; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103240

Effects of volatile output prices on agricultural land-use change
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Boere,   Esther; Peerlings,   Jack H.M.; Reinhard,   Stijn; Kuhlman,   Tom; Heijman,   Wim J.M.
Volatile output prices lead to a fluctuating shadow price (profitability) of agricultural land, and therefore may impact land use decisions in case of risk-averse behaviour. In this paper we assess the effect of volatile agricultural output prices on agricultural land-use change over the past decade in the Netherlands. Using regional data from 2000 through 2009, the number of hectares of land for 10 land uses was calculated. To determine the joint distribution of agricultural activities, hectares of land for each land use were converted to land share equations. Land share equations were estimated to determine the contribution of increased price volatility to land use change. Results show that larger volatility affects land shares negatively. Producer’s...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Land-use; Risk; Price volatility; Risk and Uncertainty; Q1; D8.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122472

ANALYSIS OF THE 2002 FARM BILL AND NEW FARM BILL ALTERNATIVES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Taylor,   Richard D.; Koo,   Won W.
This report evaluates the 2002 farm bill and the effects of the individual programs within the bill on North Dakota net farm income.  A stochastic simulation model was developed, using @Risk by Palisade.  @Risk replaces the mean values for price and yield with a distribution of values for the eight major commodities grown in North Dakota.   The counter-cyclical (target price) program, marketing loan program, and federal crop insurance benefits were separated and analyzed to determine which components were the most important to North Dakota producers.      The U.S. Trade Representative offered to decrease the country's trade distorting subsidies by 60% if the European Union would lower its export subsidies 75%.  The study estimates the impact of that plan....
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Net farm income; Risk; Farm bill; North Dakota; Forecast; Domestic subsidies; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23524

Resultados economicos y riesgo en los citricos de la Comunidad Valenciana
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: el Kamel,   Helmi Ahmed; Garcia Alvarez-Coque,   Jose-Maria.
SUMMARY: The purpose of this paper is to outline and adapt Sharpe's model to the agricultural activities as well as to measure the performance of crops when yield and risk are considered. The model is applied to the main varieties of citrus fruits in Valencia. For them, systematic and specific risks are measured and the yield índex elasticities are quantified. Applying performance rates, we determine the economic yields of citrus varieties in the 1985-1997 period. In the same way, we focus on its management based on the previously outlines criteria.  Key Words: Risk, performance, crops programming  RESUMEN: En este trabajo se presenta el modelo de Sharpe adaptado al campo de la producción agraria así como los métodos de medida de los resultados económicos...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk; Performance; Crops programming; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q00; R3.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28785

Securite Sanitaire Des Aliments: Fausse Alerte Et Vraie Crise
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cahuzac,   Eric; Hassan,   Daniel; Monier-Dilhan,   Sylvette.
These last years, a fall in consumer's confidence in food safety encouraged false alerts which sometimes led to actual crisis. This paper studies a crisis due to an alert concerning a risk of listeria on a raw milk camembert brand. The investigation relies on individual data. Two results of risk economy are confirmed. Firstly, information has asymmetric effects, according its positive or negative aspects. Secondly, punctual alerts have only temporary effects on consumption. In this crisis, education and consumer's habits did not pay any role.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Food safety; Information; Risk; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9439

Managing R&amp;D Risk in Renewable Energy
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rausser,   Gordon C.; Papineau,   Maya.
Preliminary Draft
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Research; Development; Renewable resources; Risk; Public Economics; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37651

A Categorical Data Analysis on Risks in Agriculture
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Uematsu,   Hiroki; Mishra,   Ashok K.
This study compares farm operators’ risk perceptions and actual realization of risk attitudes revealed through off-farm labor, enterprise diversification, and use of contracts, crop insurance, and other types of insurance, using data from 2001 Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS). Results from ordered logit model and multivariate probit models unexpectedly found that risk loving farmers are more likely to employ risk management strategies.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Labor and Human Capital; Marketing; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; Q10; Q12.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98839

Efficiency of Selected Risk Management Instruments - An Empirical Analysis of Risk Reduction in Kazakhstani Crop Production
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Heidelbach,   Olaf.
Recent academic discussion regarding crop insurance in developing and transition countries has focused on weather index insurance. But empirical analyses of such schemes based on farm level data cannot be found in the literature, though this insurance type shows clear advantages compared to multiple-peril crop insurance and revenue insurance. Recent empirical applications of risk and stochastic programming models focus on the optimisation of production planning, while literature on the effects of crop insurance on the farm level mainly focuses on the empirical investigation of reductions in farm income variance. The novelty of this paper is that it integrates regionally-adapted insurance products and expert-evaluated technology choices into a programming...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Risk management; Insurance; Agriculture; Kazakhstan; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q14; G22; D82.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25243

Economic Aspects of Renewable Energy from Agricultural Waste on the Southern Plains of Texas
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Liu,   Xiaolan; Farmer,   Michael.
Motivated to explore sustainability of renewable energy from bio-waste, this study attempted to discover the economic feasibility of effectively utilizing the existing agricultural waste to generate bio-energy, to complement local nucleus business by meeting specific market demands while assessing the reasonable risk associated with bio-energy production for an area with heavy concentration of agricultural production and serious water constraints. Since the problems to be addressed are all location specified critical points for bio-energy generation, GIS maps are used to identify the locations and the associated attainable volumes of agricultural waste. Meanwhile, reasonable variation and distribution of attainable cotton gin waste was identified by using...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Sustainability; Bio-energy; Agricultural waste; Economic feasibility; Risk; Agribusiness; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61752

Whole Farm Modeling of the Effect of Risk on Optimal Tillage and Nitrogen Fertilizer Intensity
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gandorfer,   Markus; Pannell,   David J.; Meyer-Aurich,   Andreas.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Nitrogen; Tillage; Risk; Risk aversion; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61185

Natural Disasters and Agriculture: Individual Risk Preference towards Flooding
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sauer,   Johannes.
This study contributes to the understanding of behavioural responses to climate change induced extreme weather events. It suggest a microeconometric method for measuring flooding related risk preferences of affected individuals. The method is outlined using the empirical case of agricultural production in floodplains of the UK over 28 years. A quasi-experimental approach to measure differences in the risk attitudes of farmers located in high flooding risk areas versus farmers located in low flooding risk areas is followed. Changes in flooding risk related behaviour over time is analysed and marginal effects of different individual and disaster related characteristics for this behaviour are investigated. Beside a moments based risk estimation approach the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Extreme Events; Risk; Agriculture; Natural Experiments; Behavioural Adaptation; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115989

BENEFICIAMENTO DE SEMENTES DE SOJA NO MATO GROSSO: UM ESTUDO DE VIABILIDADE FINANCEIRA E DE RISCOS ASSOCIADOS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lazzarotto,   Joelsio Jose; Reis,   Bricio dos Santos.
A utilização de sementes de alta qualidade é fundamental para que os sistemas de produção de soja apresentem adequados resultados técnicos e econômicos. No entanto, para que esses insumos sejam ofertados com alta qualidade, em geral, são necessários expressivos investimentos. Assim, buscou-se verificar se a implantação de uma unidade de beneficiamento de sementes (UBS) de soja no Estado do Mato Grosso constitui, no longo prazo, alternativa financeiramente viável. Para tanto, com base em um horizonte de planejamento de 10 anos de operação da UBS, com capacidade instalada anual de 500 mil sacas de sementes, foram elaborados os fluxos de caixa e calculados alguns indicadores financeiros (sob condições determinísticas e de riscos), como o valor presente...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Avaliação de projetos; Investimento; Probabilidades; Risco; Project evaluation; Investment; Probabilities; Risk; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103147

Live and Feeder Cattle Options Markets: Returns, Risk, and Volatility Forecasting
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Brittain,   Lee; Garcia,   Philip; Irwin,   Scott H.
This paper examines returns from holding 30- and 90-day call and put positions, and the forecasting performance of implied volatility in the live and feeder cattle options markets. Implied volatility is an upwardly biased and inefficient predictor of realized volatility, with bias most pronounced in live cattle. While significant returns exist from several positions, strategies are strongly affected by drifts in futures prices. However, returns from live cattle puts are persistent, and evidence from 30-day straddle returns indicates the live cattle market overprices volatility. Overpricing is consistent with volatility risk, the effect of which is magnified by extreme market conditions.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Feeder cattle; Live cattle; Options; Returns; Risk; Volatility forecasting; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/105515

The Economic Impact and the Distribution of Benefits and Risk from the Adoption of Insect Resistant (Bt)  Cotton in West Africa
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Falck-Zepeda,   Jose Benjamin; Horna,   J. Daniela; Smale,   Melinda.
Cotton is the largest source of export receipts of several West African countries. Statistics however show a decreasing tendency in cotton yields and an increasing tendency in pesticide use. Under this circumstances there appear to be potential payoffs from the use of biotechnology products in the farming systems of the region. In this study we estimate different scenarios for the potential deployment of insect resistant cotton in selected countries in West Africa (WA). We use an economic surplus model augmented with a more rigorous sensitivity analysis of model parameters. Hypothetical scenarios of Bt cotton adoption in WA are simulated and single point values of model parameters are substituted with probability distributions. The scenarios include: no...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Bt cotton; West Africa; Economic surplus; Risk; Probability distributions; Impact assessment; Net benefits; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42395

THE ROLE OF RESEARCH IN PRODUCER RISK MANAGEMENT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Coble,   Keith H.; Barnett,   Barry J.
Agricultural economists have for many decades concerned ourselves with gaining an understanding of individual behavior when confronted with risk, and developing tools to address decision-making under risk.  This area of research has recently gained renewed attention for a variety of reasons.  This paper attempts to provide a review of the current status of risk related research, to assess areas where we have made significant progress, and also areas where expected benefits of future work are greatest.   Theoretical advancements have contributed to our understanding of portfolio trade-offs, optimal input and output decisions, and the use of instruments such as futures and insurance.  Advances in the ability to quantify risk with more robust methodologies...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk; Insurance; Research; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15803

Consumer Acceptance of Genetically Modified Food Products in the Developing World
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Curtis,   Kynda R.; Wahl,   Thomas I.; McCluskey,   Jill J.
World-wide consumer response toward food products made from genetically modified ingredients has been largely negative. However, the majority of the previous studies on consumer attitudes towards genetically modified food products were conducted in developed countries in Europe as well as Japan. The small number of studies conducted in developing countries obtained different results from the developed world. This paper considers the motivations for consumer attitudes towards genetically modified foods in developing countries. We conclude that the generally positive perception towards genetically modified foods in developing countries could be the result of a cost-benefit analysis consistent with expected utility theory. Developing countries have more...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Developing countries; Risk; Biotechnology; Genetically modified foods; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57858

Effects of Private Insurance on Forest Landowners' Incentives to Sequester and Trade Carbon under Uncertainty: Impact of Hurricanes
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Grover,   Mansi; Bosch,   Darrell J.; Preisley,   Stephen P.
We evaluate incentives of forest landowners for sequestering and trading carbon, given the risk of carbon loss from hurricanes, and an opportunity to insure their losses. Results of simulation model reveal that the effect of hurricane risk depends on the variability of returns from carbon and timber and landowners' ability to mitigate risk by diversifying forest holdings across regions or transferring risk by purchasing insurance.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Carbon Sequestration; Emissions Trading; Natural Disaster; Risk; Insurance; Risk and Uncertainty; Q54; Q58.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19516

Local Ownership in Biofuels Production: A Strategy for Rural Development?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hueth,   Brent; Walker,   William D.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Local ownership; Rural development; Risk; Investment; Community/Rural/Urban Development.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94690

Cash Wheat Marketing: Strategies for Real People
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Brorsen,   B. Wade; Anderson,   Kim B.
A new paradigm is needed in extension marketing programs. Attempts to help producers time the market, either through cask sales or futures trading, appear to be of little benefit. Marketing extension programs need to place less emphasis on outlook and futures trading and more emphasis on simple marketing strategies that people really use. An empirical example of strategies for Oklahoma wheat producers shows selling cash wheat at harvest and participating in government programs as the preferred marketing strategy.  Implications for extension programs in other states are that extension programs can help producers decide whether to store their grain and whether to participate in farm programs.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Economics; Efficient markets; Extension; Forward contracts; Hedging; Price analysis; Risk; Stochastic dominance; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 1994
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/62351

Explaining the Changing Institutional Organisation of Dutch Farms: The Role of Farmer's Attitude, Advisory Network and Structural Factors
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jongeneel,   Roelof A.; Polman,   Nico B.P.; Slangen,   Louis H.G.
Although the family farm remains the dominant organisational form for farms there are changes in the legal mode of organisation. Applying the new institutional economics and economic organisation theory the different organisation modes are explained, mainly in terms of control and income rights. Important factors are (limited) liability, risk-bearing costs, transaction costs, and residual control and income rights. In an empirical follow-up, based on a sample among 3100 farmers in the Netherlands, the impact of farmers' attitudes, farm advisory network, and structural variables on organisation choice are analysed. Especially the financial advisors appear to play a significant role in the choice of organisation mode. Other factors are age, branche...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farm organisation; Ownership and management; Liability; Risk; Residual control and income rights; Attitudes; Advisory network; Farm Management; Industrial Organization; Q12.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24526

Assessing the potential for beneficial diversification in rain-fed agricultural enterprises
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kandulu,   John.
Climate change and climate variability induce uncertainty in yields, and thus threaten long term economic viability of rain-fed agricultural enterprises. Enterprise mix diversification is the most common, and is widely regarded as the most effective, strategy for mitigating multiple sources of farm business risk. We assess the potential for enterprise mix diversification in mitigating climate induced variability in long term net returns from rain-fed agriculture. We build on APSIM modelling and apply Monte Carlo simulation, probability theory, and finance techniques, to assess the potential for enterprise mix diversification to mitigate climate-induced variability in long term economic returns from rain-fed agriculture. We consider four alternative farm...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Climate variability; Yield uncertainty; Economic returns; Rain-fed agricultural enterprise; Risk; Monte Carlo; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100568

COSTS AND RISKS OF TESTING AND SEGREGATING GM WHEAT - SUMMARY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wilson,   William W.; Dahl,   Bruce L.
Development of genetically modified crops is challenging the functions of the grain marketing system with many participants arguing for Identity Preservation (IP) systems prior to release of GM varieties.  In this study, a stochastic optimization model was developed to determine optimal testing strategies.  The model chooses the optimal testing strategy that maximizes utility (minimizes disutility) of additional system costs due to testing and rejection and allows estimation of the risk premium required for sellers to undertake a dual marketing system with GM/Non-GM segregations over the current Non-GM system.  Elements of costs (testing costs, rejection costs, and risk premium) were estimated for a base model representing a grain export chain.  The model...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Genetically modified organisms; Biotechnology; Wheat; Risk; Segregation; Identity preservation; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23502

Conservation Payments under Risk: A Stochastic Dominance Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Benitez,   Pablo C.; Kuosmanen,   Timo; Olschewski,   Roland; van Kooten,   G. Cornelis.
Updated version of REPA Working Paper 2004-05.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Agroforest systems; Conservation payments; Land allocation; Portfolio diversification; Risk; Stochastic dominance; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C73; O54; Q23; Q57; R14.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37024

ENERGY SUPPLEMENTATION STRATEGIES FOR WHEAT PASTURE STOCKER CATTLE UNDER UNCERTAIN FORAGE AVAILABILITY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Coulibaly,   Nouhoun; Bernardo,   Daniel J.; Horn,   Gerald W.
Energy supplementation provides a means of reducing production risk of growing stocker cattle on winter wheat pasture. This study addresses the issue of risk aversion and energy supplement input use. Differences in supplementation practices induced by risk aversion and the effects of cattle and feed market conditions are examined. Results show that supplementation practices are likely to be similar across producers, irrespective of their risk attitudes. Cattle and feed market conditions, however, markedly affect supplementation practices. These findings provide information for assisting stockmen in identifying efficient supplement strategies.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk; Wheat pasture grazing; Numerical integration; Energy supplementation; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 1996
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15244

Advanced Biofuel Production in Louisiana Sugar Mills: an Application of Real Options Analysis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Darby,   Paul M.; Mark,   Tyler B.; Detre,   Joshua D.; Salassi,   Michael E.
In order to more fully study the risks and uncertainty involved in cellulosic ethanol production, we examine a simulated plant in South Louisiana using Real Options Analysis
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Real options; Risk; Uncertainty; Cellulosic ethanol; Energy cane; Sorghum; Bagasse; Simulation; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Production Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q42; Q14; Q16; D81; G31.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103747

El valor de la flexibilidad en la valoracion de inversiones acuícolas
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sempere,   Loreto Pardo; Alcaide,   Jose Javier Rodriguez.
Las fuertes inversiones iniciales que son necesarias para comenzar una actividad acuícola, unidas al período tan dilatado del ciclo de explotación y al riesgo que esta actividad comporta, son situaciones que comprometen el futuro de la actividad cuya continuidad pasa necesariamente por la consecución de la viabilidad económica. Por ello, es importante prestar atención a los estudios que justifiquen esta viabilidad económica considerando aspectos tales como la propia flexibilidad operativa o el valor estratégico que tiene cada proyecto de inversión, a menudo considerados factores críticos para la supervivencia. Desde esta perspectiva, se pone de manifiesto la necesidad y la oportunidad de la investigación, basado en la aplicación del método de Opciones...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Aquaculture; Real Options; Risk; Flexibility in operations; Risk and Uncertainty; B41; C15; D81.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28786

FARM RISK POLICY AT A CROSSROAD
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Coble,   Keith H.
Legislatively mandated declines in government program payments have coincided with sharp declines in most major crop commodity prices. Thus, a debate has begun about the direction of future farm policy. The debate has been largely expressed in terms of a "safety net" for producers. This paper address several economic issues associated with proposals to enhance the agricultural "safety net."  The case is made that crop insurance reform cannot satisfy the desire for above-market price supports. Characteristics required for an insurable risk are discussed, as are the interactions between public and private risk-management tools.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Crop insurance; Risk; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14704

VALUATION OF BIOTECHNOLOGY COMPANIES: REAL OPTIONS APPROACH UNDER UNCERTAINTY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ljumovic,   Isidora; Cvijanovic,   Janko; Lazic,   Jelena.
Review article
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Risk; Real options; Valuation; Biotechnology; Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty; D04; D81; L65.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123958

FORWARD CONTRACTING OF INPUTS: A FARM-LEVEL ANALYSIS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Perry,   Janet E.; Mishra,   Ashok K.
Forward contracting of inputs in production agriculture is becoming increasingly important as more farmers attempt to manage risk.  Using a logit model and farm-level data, this analysis estimates the effect of factors on the probability of a producer using forward input contracting.  Results suggest that use of contracting in selling of crops and livestock, technology, farm size, geographic location, participation in government commodity programs, and use of extension services are important factors affecting the choice to forward contract inputs.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Forward contracting; Inputs; Risk; Marketing.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14729

ESS versus NVZ – The Cost-Effectiveness of Command-and-Control versus Agreement Based Policy Instruments
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sauer,   Johannes; Walsh,   John.
This study empirically investigates the cost-effectiveness of different agri-environmental policy instruments. We compare the Environment Stewardship Scheme (ESS) as an example for a management agreement type instrument, to the Nitrate Vulnerable Zones (NVZ) as an example for a command-and-control type instrument. Both instruments are currently applied in the UK. Based on a simple cost model considering also relevant transaction costs and risk we use different regression and resampling techniques to estimate the marginal effects of different factors with respect to the instruments‟ relative cost-effectiveness and to identify factors for cost variation over space and time. We control for the actual level of compliance by using compliance weighted average...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agri-Environmental Instruments; Costs; Risk; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108963

Linking marketing choices with farming practices of grain producers: A farm level modeling approach applied to the South-west of France
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ricome,   Aymeric; Kephaliacos,   Charilaos; Carpy-Goulard,   Francoise; Ridier,   Aude; Chaib,   Karim.
With the increasing commodity prices volatility over the last years and the successive agricultural policy reforms, European grain producers face greater uncertainty. To better understand consequences of a price risk increase on production decisions, marketing decisions and farm revenue as well as linkage between production and marketing decisions, we develop a multiperiodic risk farm model. Production decisions concern selections of crop mix and farming practices (conventional or integrated farming) while marketing decisions focus on four types of pricing arrangements. The model is applied to a representative farmer of a region located in the Southwest of France. The results exposed in this paper shows that with a price risk increase, production...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Multiperiod farm model; Marketing contracts; Risk; Common agricultural policy; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60914

Flood Insurance Demand along the Gulf and Florida Coast
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lee,   Jihyun; Petrolia,   Daniel R.; Ferraez,   Will T.
The objective of this research is to identify factors that influence both the decision (yes or no) and level of flood insurance among coastal homeowners in the southeast U.S.  Recently flood damage has dramatically increased (Flood), and Crossett et al. (2004) report that coastal populations are growing. And in spite of rising costs of living in coastal areas, people are willing to pay more for access to ocean views and other natural amenities associated with coastal living (Bin and Kruse, 2006).         Although the federal government provides flood insurance programs and encourages at-risk residents to insure their property from flood, rates of uptake remain low (Burby, 2001; Kunreuther, 2006; Landry and Jahan-Parvar, 2009). The National Flood Insurance...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Flood Insurance; Risk; Insurance Demand; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99239

MARKETING MECHANISMS IN GM GRAINS AND OILSEEDS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Maxwell,   Brett J.; Wilson,   William W.; Dahl,   Bruce L.
A number of challenges exist for genetically modified (GM) crop development at the production level.  Contract strategies can resolve these challenges.  Contracts can be designed to induce legal adoption of GM wheat by varying technology fees, violation detection, and penalties.  The primary objective of this research is to analyze contracting strategies to determine terms to minimize technology agreement violation and to induce legal adoption of GM wheat.  A simulation model of a crop budget for Hard Red Spring wheat was developed.  Results illustrate that contracts can be designed to induce desired behavior.  Technology fee, probability of detection, and the level of non-GM premium were the most notable factors influencing adoption decisions.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Producer Decisions; Risk; Genetically Modified; Contract Terms; Wheat; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23639

Risks Perceptions and Risk Management Instruments in the European Union: do farmers have a clear idea of what they need?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Morales,   C.; Garrido,   Alberto; Palinkas,   Peter; Szekely,   Csaba.
This paper explores and analyzes farmers’ risk perceptions, risk management instruments’ demand and usage in five Member States (Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands, Germany and Poland). A survey completed by 1047 representative farmers of these EU Member Status collected information that allowed us to set apart two focus areas: the first looks at the declared importance of several sources of farms’ risk and income instability, and at the actual means that farmers pursue to manage and face them. The second area focuses on the demand for risk management instruments. The paper’s objective is to determine the factors that explain farmers’ responses in the first area, and based on those factors, analyse the demands for two instruments (insurance, and future &amp;...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Risk management; Farmer’s perception.; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43956

Betting on cotton: Potential payoffs and economic risks of adopting transgenic cotton in West Africa
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Falck-Zepeda,   Jose Benjamin; Horna,   J. Daniela; Smale,   Melinda.
Cotton is the largest source of export receipts in several West African nations where yields are declining and pesticide use is rising. Although there may be payoffs to introducing genetically modified Bt (Bacillus thurigiensis) cotton, limited information is available to predict its potential economic impact and there is uncertainty about its performance. Recognizing these constraints, we use an economic surplus model augmented with stochastic simulation to estimate ex ante the impact and distribution of benefits from Bt cotton. We consider the effects of adoption on both yields and abating crop damage, and offer scenarios depicting the policy options faced by West African stakeholders. The findings indicate that although the total net benefits of...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop biotechnology; Bt cotton; Economic surplus model; West Africa; Agricultural development; Risk; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56962

Mitigating Cotton Revenue Risk Through Irrigation, Insurance, and Hedging
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Barham,   E. Hart Bise; Robinson,   John R.C.; Richardson,   James W.; Rister,   M. Edward.
This study focuses on managing cotton production and marketing risks using combinations of irrigation levels, put options (as price insurance), and crop insurance. Stochastic cotton yields and prices are used to simulate a whole-farm financial statement for a 1,000 acre furrow irrigated cotton farm in the Texas Lower Rio Grande Valley under 16 combinations of risk management strategies. Analyses for risk-averse decision makers indicate that multiple irrigations are preferred. The benefits to purchasing put options increase with yields, as they are more beneficial when higher yields are expected from applying more irrigation applications. Crop insurance is strongly preferred at lower irrigation levels.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Cotton; Crop insurance; Irrigation; Options; Puts; Risk; Simulation; Stochastic efficiency with respect to a function; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; Q12; Q15.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117946

RENTABILIDADE E RISCO DE SISTEMAS ALTERNATIVOS DE PRODUÇÃO DE LEITE EM PEQUENAS PROPRIEDADES DA MICRORREGIÃO DE VIÇOSA, MG
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Oliveira,   Gabriel Leao; Vieira,   Wilson da Cruz.
The main objective of this work was to analyze the trade between income and risk related to the alternative milk production systems in the region of Viçosa, Minas Gerais, supported by the Federal University of Viçosa and Nestlé. A standard linear programming model provided the identification of the best options among the activities displayed for the maximization of the gross annual income. By means of the rentability calculation of the different milk production systems and risk linked to them it was possible to identify that the milk producers behaved differently in relation to the risk. Generally the producers who are more dependent to the milk activity for their survival are more adverse to risk.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk; Linear programming; Milk production.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43811

The Legal Environment Facing Economic Agents in Production
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hipp,   Janie S.; Francis,   Harriet F.
Agriculture has seen a steady movement toward the increased use of contracts.  Agricultural contracts now guide the interrelationships of parties throughout the modern production system, extending well beyond the livestock sector.  With this predominance come new issues that require us to reexamine contract theory and the roles of the parties.  This review examines legislation, regulations, and recent court rulings in seemingly unrelated areas that have specific relationships to the development of contracts in production agriculture: environmental law and labor law.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Contracting; Environment; Labor; Law; Liability; Relationships; Risk; D23; D86; K12; K31; K32.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43508

RISK EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE WINTER COVER CROP, TILLAGE, AND NITROGEN FERTILIZATION SYSTEMS IN COTTON PRODUCTION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Larson,   James A.; Jaenicke,   Edward C.; Roberts,   Roland K.; Tyler,   Donald D.
A Just-Pope model was developed to assess tillage, nitrogen, weather, and pest effects on risk for cotton grown after alternative winter cover crops.  Yield risk for cotton after hairy vetch was less than for cotton with no winter cover when no nitrogen fertilizer was used to supplement the vetch nitrogen.  However, because cotton after vetch has a higher production cost, farmers growing conventionally tilled cotton may be slow to adapt because risk-return tradeoffs may be unacceptable under risk neutrality and risk aversion.  For risk-averse farmers who have already adopted no tillage, cotton grown after hairy vetch is risk efficient.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Cover crops; Just-Pope production function; Risk; Tillage; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15458

Irrigation Technology Adoption Under Factor Price Uncertainty: Groundwater- Irrigated Production in Nebraska, 1960 -- 2005
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Savage,   Jeff; Brozovic,   Nicholas.
The development of groundwater-irrigated production technologies, fed by water from the Ogallala Aquifer, facilitated the development of agriculture in the High Plains region of the United States that began during the 1960s. The current rate of pumping for irrigation in the region is causing the aquifer to be depleted in many areas, which is cause for concern from a socioeconomic and environmental standpoint. The goal of this paper is to assess the factors that affect the decision to adopt groundwater-irrigated production by farmers, in the presence of risk differentiated by heterogeneous farmland quality and groundwater depth. A binary choice model of adoption is estimated for Nebraska, from 1960 – 2005. The results suggest that farmers consider climate...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Irrigation; Technology Adoption; Risk; Ogallala Aquifer; Crop Production/Industries; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Q15; Q32; Q55.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49585

A Risk Analysis of Converting CRP Acres to a Wheat-Sorghum-Fallow Rotation
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Williams,   Jeffery R.; Llewelyn,   Richard V.; Pendell,   Dustin L.; Schlegel,   Alan J.; Troy,   Dumler.
This study examines the economic potential of producing a wheat (Triticum aesitivum) and grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) rotation with three different tillage strategies compared to the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) in a semi-arid region.  This research uses stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) to determine the preferred management strategies under various risk preferences and utility-weighted certainty equivalent risk premiums.  Yields, input rates, and field operations from an experimental field in western Kansas are used to calculate net returns for each tillage strategy.  Although current net returns to crop production using reduced tillage and no-tillage strategies are higher than CRP, risk analysis indicates CRP...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Conservation Reserve Program; Conservation tillage; Simulation; Sorghum; Wheat; Risk; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45985

Agricultural yield expectations under climate change - a Bayesian approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Krause,   Jette.
In the years to come, German wheat, corn and aggregated cereal yields can be expected to show growing deviations from a linearly increasing trend. This results from the Bayesian Updating approach I apply to agricultural yield data. The updating procedure is carried out on a set of hypotheses on yield development, which are weighted in the light of yield data from 1950 through 2006. All hypotheses share the assumption of a linear yield trend with normally distributed variance of actual data from this trend, but differ in regard to possible future developments. The set of hypotheses allows for both the trend and the variance of data to stay unchanged, increase or decrease by 20 per cent from one period to the next. As a result, yield expectations converge to...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Bayesian updating; Agricultural yields; Expectation; Risk; Climate change; Trend; Variance; Volatility; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9273

The general equilibrium effects of a minimum wage on training
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Perloff,   Jeffrey M.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Job methods training; Minimum wages; Production (economics); Risk; Wages; Labor and Human Capital.
Ano: 1981
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/47005

The complexities in environmental decision-making for the Murray-Darling Basin
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Schrobback,   Peggy; Mallawaarachchi,   Thilak; Quiggin,   John C.
People are part of a complex natural system and have the ability to actively interfere with their environment. Collective decisions made by governments represent social rules that limit the extent of people's interference with the environment that support them. Environmental decisions made by governments usually carry an ethical bias and are limited by the perception of the risks and uncertainties that may affect society's well-being in the medium to long run. The recently published Guide to the proposed Basin Plan represents a draft for a legislative instrument that aims to reclaim some of the water back onto the environment to safeguard declining natural ecosystems in the Murray-Darling Basin. By limiting diversions into agricultural uses, irrigators in...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Environmental decision-making; Uncertainty; Risk; Trade-off; Collective choices; Resilience; Murray-Darling Basin; Environmental Economics and Policy; Political Economy; Public Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100708

LIMITATIONS OF VALUE-AT-RISK (VAR) FOR BUDGET ANALYSIS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gustafson,   Cole R.
Value-at-risk (VaR) is increasingly being applied to problems in agriculture, especially valuation of crop insurance and agricultural lending risk exposure.  VaR conveys the probability that losses exceeding a threshold will likely occur within a specified timeframe.  However, it does not provide the expected value of losses, should they happen.  When determining risk exposure for budget analysis, this latter amount is of keen interest.  Expected tail loss (ETL) methods are developed and compared with VaR.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk; Value-at-Risk; Expected Tail Loss; Crop insurance; Loan loss; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23612

Risk Considerations in Supply Response: Implications for Counter-Cyclical Payments' Production Impact
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lin,   William W.; Dismukes,   Robert.
This study investigates the role of risk in farmers' acreage decisions in the Northcentral region by revisiting an earlier study by Chavas and Holt and tests the null hypothesis regadring the effects of wealth and draw out implications for farmers' risk attitudes.  Estimated model results are used to examine counter-cyclical payments' production impact for major field crops.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Supply response; Marketing loan programs; Counter-cyclical payments; Northcentral region; Corn; Soybeans; Wheat; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19304

The Relationship Between the ACRE Program and Crop Insurance (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Paulson,   Nicholas D.; Schnitkey,   Gary D.; Zulauf,   Carl R.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: ACRE program; Crop insurance; Risk; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48906

IMPACTS OF POLICY REFORM ON HILL FARM INCOMES IN UK
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Acs,   Szvetlana; Dallimer,   Martin; Hanley,   Nick; Armsworth,   Paul R.
Hill farming in UK is experiencing very difficult economic circumstances and many farmers rely on subsidies provided by the government for a large fraction of their income. The Peak District National Park is used as a case study to examine how farmers might respond to current policy changes – in particular, the move from area- and headage-based payments to the Single Farm Payment. The objective of this paper is thus to develop production models that predict how farmers will respond to changing policy framework conditions. For this purpose socio-economic surveys were carried out on 44 sample farms. Based on these surveys six representative farm linear programming models was developed, which represent typical farm types in the uplands in the Peak District....
Tipo: Book
Palavras-chave: Changes in subsidies; Risk; Survey; Farmers’ reaction; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43182

2006 NORTH DAKOTA AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK: REPRESENTATIVE FARMS, 2006-2015
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Taylor,   Richard D.; Koo,   Won W.; Swenson,   Andrew L.
Net farm income for nearly all representative farms in 2015 is projected to be higher than in 2005.  Low-profit farms, which comprise 20% of the farms in the study, may not have financial resiliency to survive without off-farm income.  Commodity prices and yields are projected to increase slightly faster than costs, which will increase net farm income.  Cropland prices and cash rental rates are projected to increase slightly in all regions.  Debt-to-asset ratios for most farms will decrease slightly throughout the forecast period.  Debt-to-asset ratios for the low-profit farms are expected to increase throughout the forecast period.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Net farm income; Debt-to-asset ratios; Cropland prices; Land rental rates; Farm operating expenses; Capitalization rate; Risk; Farm Management.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23563

The Affect of Animal Gender on Fed Cattle Producer Marketing Behavior
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fausti,   Scott W.; Qasmi,   Bashir A.; Diersen,   Matthew A.; Li,   Jing; Lange,   Brent.
Weekly grid market share by volume for slaughter steers is compared to slaughter heifers. Summary statistics indicate average grid market share for steers (42%) is 27% higher than slaughter heifers (33%). The literature indicates that pregnancy and increased dark cutter incidence associated with heifers relative to steers creates additional financial risk when heifers are sold on a grid. Econometric analysis suggests grid market share is less sensitive to change in market conditions for heifers relative to steers. The empirical evidence is consistent with the supposition that marketing heifers is riskier than marketing steers on a grid. Thus sellers need stronger economic incentives to market heifers on a grid relative to steers.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Grid pricing; Fed cattle; Animal gender; Risk; Livestock Production/Industries; Q00.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98541

Economic Analysis of Incentives for Foreign Direct Investment in Beef Systems in Argentina and Uruguay
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Thor,   Eric, III; Bailey,   DeeVon; Silvac,   Alejandro R.; Vickner,   Steven S.
The European Union's (EU) ban of hormone-treated beef products in 1989 has virtually eliminated beef exports to the EU from countries where cattle are routinely implanted with growth hormones. This study examined whether or not foreign direct investment in beef systems in Argentina and Uruguay would provide a profitable method for investors who want to export beef to the EU. The results indicate that while investment in these systems is potentially profitable, government interventions designed to keep domestic beef prices low inject considerable risk into the investment decision.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Investment in beef systems; South America; Risk; Cointegration; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8167

Does On-Farm Quality Assurance Pay? A Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Grainsafe Program
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Karaca,   Umit; Alexander,   Corinne E.; Maier,   Dirk E.
Since the introduction of genetically modified (GM) crops, the commodity grain system has been under pressure to segregate GM and non-GM crops.  Starting at the level of the grain handler, members of the grain supply chain have successfully used quality assurance and identity preservation programs to segregate non GM crops.  Producers delivering high-value, identity-preserved crops have become interested in implementing these quality management systems at the farm level.  We conduct a cost-benefit analysis that shows that quality assurance program may be profitable for producers, depending on their farm size and equipment management strategy.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk; Cost-benefit analysis; Identity preservation; On-farm quality assurance; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q16.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6057

2009 North Dakota Agricultural Outlook: Representative Farms, 2009-2018
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Taylor,   Richard D.; Koo,   Won W.; Swenson,   Andrew L.
Net farm income for all representative farms in 2018 is projected to be lower than in 2008. Low-profit farms, which comprise 20% of the farms in the study, may not have financial resiliency to survive without off-farm income. Commodity prices are expected to fall from current levels however the final level is unknown. Commodity yields are projected to increase at historical trend-line rates and production expenses are expected to return to normal growth rates after 2009. Debt-to-asset ratios for all farms except for the low profit farm will decrease slightly throughout the forecast period. Debt-to-asset ratios for the low-profit farms are expected to increase to about 0.50.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Net farm income; Debt-to-asset ratios; Cropland prices; Land rental rates; Farm operating expenses; Capitalization rate; Risk; Agribusiness.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54246

Subsurface Drip Irrigation Versus Center-Pivot Sprinkler for Applying Swine Effluent to Corn
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Carreira,   Rita I.; Stoecker,   Arthur L.; Epplin,   Francis M.; Hattey,   Jeffory A.; Kizer,   Michael A.
A risk-averse irrigated corn producer would be better off choosing the more expensive subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) over center-pivot sprinkler (CPS), given limited aquifer life and swine effluent and urea fertilization. A stochastic optimization using EPIC data maximized expected utility of 100 years' worth of net revenues for a quarter section. Phosphorus accumulation was more likely with the CPS than with the SDI but soil nitrogen was constant under both systems. SDI conserves more water than CPS per acre but depletes the aquifer faster because a greater area is irrigated. These results were invariant in the sensitivity analysis.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Aquifer depletion; Center-pivot sprinkler irrigation; Certainty equivalent; Corn irrigation; Mathematical programming; Risk; Stochastic optimization; Subsurface drip irrigation; Crop Production/Industries; C61; C65; Q12; Q30; Q53.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43783

A dynamic dual model under state-contingent production uncertainty
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Serra,   Teresa; Stefanou,   Spiro E.; Oude Lansink,   Alfons G.J.M.
In this paper we assess how production costs and capital accumulation patterns in agriculture have evolved over time, by paying special attention to the influence of risk. A dynamic state-contingent cost minimization approach is applied to assess production decisions in US agriculture over the last century. Results suggest the relevance of allowing for the stochastic nature of the production function which permits to capture both the differences in the costs of producing under different states of nature, the differences in the evolution of these costs over time, as well as the differential impacts of different states of nature on investment decisions.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; State-contingent; Dynamic model; Investment decisions; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; D21.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61353

Dynamic Econometric Models of Manitoba Crop Production and Hypothetical Production Impacts for CAIS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Coyle,   Barry T.; Wei,   Ran; Rude,   James.
This study analyzes the impact of the Canadian Agriculture Income Stabilization (CAIS)program. The study begins with a specification of dynamic crop production that decomposes static short run crop acreage allocation decisions and dynamic crop yield affects. The modelling framework accommodates risk aversion, price uncertainty, and applies recent aggregation theory to aggregate weather data. Using this framework an analytical model of the impacts of CAIS on crop production is developed. Hypothetical impacts of are simulated using an aggregate Manitoba data set. The results show that CAIS has a substantial impact on the shadow prices of both inputs and outputs. These shadow price effects resulted in a 4 percent increase in long run wheat and barley yields...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Canada; CAIS; Risk; Crop; Production; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46630

An Equilibrium Approach to the Theory of Futures Markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Berck,   Peter; Cecchetti,   Stephen G.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Future trading; Investments; Risk.
Ano: 1981
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42847

Financial considerations of public inventory holdings in developing countries
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Adelman,   Irma; Berck,   Peter.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Consumption; Investments; Public finance; Risk.
Ano: 1991
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43739

Stewardship and Risk: An Empirically Grounded Theory of Organic Fish Farming in Scotland
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Georgakopoulos,   Georgios; Ciancanelli,   Penelope; Coulson,   Andrea; Kaldis,   Panayiotis.
It has long been assumed ownership gives farmers incentives to act as stewards for the land. On this basis, quasi-property rights are granted to fish farmers to encourage them to manage risks to the aquatic environment.  This paper offers an empirically grounded theorization of fish farmers’ perspectives on these issues. Data were gathered via field research with Scottish salmon farmers who had switched from conventional to organic fish farmers’ risk management strategies offer little support for the view that property rights automatically create incentives for stewardship of the marine environment.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk; Organic; Fish farming; Grounded theory; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/101053

The Economic Feasibility of Energy Sugar Beet Biofuel Production in Central North Dakota
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Maung,   Thein A.; Gustafson,   Cole R.
This study examines the financial feasibility of producing ethanol biofuel from sugar beets in central North Dakota. Under the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007, biofuel from sugar beets uniquely qualifies as an “advanced biofuel”.  EISA mandates production of 15 billion gallons of advanced biofuels annually by 2022. A stochastic simulation financial model was calibrated with irrigated sugar beet data from central North Dakota to determine economic feasibility and risks of production for a 10MGY (million gallon per year) and 20MGY ethanol plant. Study results indicate that feedstock costs, which include sugar beets and beet molasses, account for more than 70% of total production expenses. The estimated breakeven ethanol price for the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Ethanol; Sugar beets; Molasses; Net Present Value; Risk; Agricultural Finance; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61235

Farm Level Analysis of Risk, and Risk Management Strategies and Policies: Evidence from German Crop Farms
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Anton,   Jesus; Kimura,   Shingo.
This paper describes farmer’s exposures to risks at the individual farm level and develops a model representing the decisions of an individual risk averse farmer facing variability in both prices and yields. A set of stylised risk market instruments is represented.  The model is calibrated using farm level data from Germany.  Monte-Carlo simulations of the random variables are run, and the corresponding optimal responses are obtained. The main focus of this paper is the interactions between government payments and the farmers’ use of risk market instruments in terms of the potential crowding out of such instruments and impacts on farm return and welfare. Unlike other studies this paper models farming response to payments in terms of production and the use...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Welfare; Crop yield insurance; Forward contracting and Single Farm Payment; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; Q12.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51729

An Operational Approach for Evaluating Investment Risk: An Application to the No-Till Transition
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Upadhyay,   Bharat Mani; Young,   Douglas L.
Roy's safety-first rule is used to provide measures popular with farmers of short and long term business risk associated with various no-till transition strategies over an investment horizon. The short run rule provided more sensitivity to inter-year financial risk than other commonly used criteria. Results revealed that speed of adoption influenced the probability of successful transition more than did the sequence of drill acquisition methods. Higher equity and larger farms had a greater chance of transition success. Slow acreage expansion with a custom or rental drill reduces risk until a no-till yield penalty is eliminated.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Investment risk; Monte Carlo simulation; No-till; Rent-purchase; Risk; Safety-first; Technology adoption; Transition strategy; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12958

Farm Risk Management Between Normal Business Risk and Climatic/Market Shocks
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cordier,   Jean.
Farm risk management for income stabilization is on-going issue. An applied work has been performed to measure farm risk using a stochastic model. Risk management tools, with symmetric as well as asymmetric impacts, are then tested and compared through ad hoc statistics. Normal farm business risk can be efficiently managed using a precautionary saving provision. Farm revenue insurance is found as the most efficient asymmetric tool for dealing with climatic and market shocks. The linkage between these complementary tools can be adjusted upon market environment.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Comparative; Performance; Risk; Management; Tools.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48105

A STOCHASTIC DOMINANCE ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE SUGAR BEET- AND NAVY BEAN- BASED CROP ROTATIONS IN MICHIGAN
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gebremedhin,   Berhanu; Schwab,   Gerald; Harwood,   Richard R.; Christenson,   Donald; Bricker,   Calvin.
Sugar beets (Beta vulgaris L.) and navy beans (Phaseoulus vulgaris L.) have been important target crops in the crop rotation systems of many Michigan growers, particularly in the Saginaw Valley and the Thumb region.  The recent decline in sugar beet yields combined with the erratic navy bean yields have led to concern about the optimal crop rotation for the East Central region in Michigan.  Risk is an important consideration in a farmer's choice of cropping systems.  This study uses 20 years of experimental data from the Michigan State University Saginaw Valley Research Farm to determine the risk efficiency of alternative sugar beet- and navy bean- based crop rotations that included corn (Zea mays L.), oats (Avena sativa L.), and alfalfa (Medicago sativa...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Crop rotation; Cropping system; Risk; Stochastic dominance analysis; First-degree stochastic dominance; Second-degree stochastic dominance.; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/11509

Viabilidade econômica da irrigação da cultura do café na região de Viçosa - MG
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Aredes,   Alan Figueiredo de; Santos,   Maurinho Luiz dos; Rufino,   Jose Luiz dos Santos; Reis,   Bricio dos Santos.
The objective of this paper is analyze the economic viability of implanting different technological alternatives of irrigation in the culture of coffee in the municipal district of Viçosa-MG. Technical and financial parameters of coffee cultivation were analyzed in five different technological alternatives: (A) - no-irrigated production with low productivity, (B) - no-irrigated production with high productivity, (C) - irrigated production by leaking, (D) - irrigated production by leaking fertilizing, (E) - irrigated production by mesh. For each one of there alternatives, Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, the Rate Interns of Return Modified and the Payback Period, being made the risk simulations were performed using the Latin Hypercube method. Results...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Coffee; Return; Risk; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54597

Drought Risk and Drought Response in Morocco: Vulnerability, Risk Perceptions and Drought Coping Among Rainfed Cereal Farmers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lybbert,   Travis J.; Kusunose,   Yoko; Magnan,   Nicholas; Fadlaoui,   Abdelaziz.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Drought; Coping; Vulnerability; Risk; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Food Security and Poverty; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49367

Trust and Risk in Business Networks: Towards a Due Diligence for Electronic Commerce
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fritz,   Melanie.
This paper develops a due diligence for electronic transactions with new partners in business networks with complex goods such as food products to enable the use of e-commerce potentials in first time transactions. The e-commerce due diligence is a means to reduce perceived risks and uncertainties for businesses and create trust and confidence in the electronic transaction with appropriate information. The paper presents a conceptual framework for the due diligence integrating the principles of transaction decision making and the four phases of a transaction process. The operationalization of the framework assigns trust signals and control elements to the four process phases to be communicated during the process.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Trust; Risk; Electronic commerce; First time transactions; Due diligence; Food networks; Agribusiness; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Marketing.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7753

Supply Response of Crops in the Southeast
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Smith,   Rachel K.; Duffy,   Patricia A.; Novak,   James L.; Wilson,   Norbert L.W.
An econometric model was used to estimate the supply response of corn, cotton, and soybeans in the Southeast United States.  The analysis includes state-level data from 1991-2005 for Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia, taking into account the effect of wealth, revenue risk, and farm program provisions.  Estimated elasticities were low and many parameters were not statistically significant.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Supply Response; Government Programs; Risk; Wealth; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q11; Q18.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46756

An Experimental Investigation of Inter-temporal Risk Decision-making (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Coble,   Keith H.; Lusk,   Jayson L.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Decision-making; Risk and Uncertainty; D81.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48911

Hedging a Government Entitlement: The Case of Countercyclical Payments
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Anderson,   John D.; Coble,   Keith H.; Miller,   J. Corey.
This research evaluates whether the introduction of countercyclical payments creates an incentive for program crop producers to hedge the expected government payment using futures and/or options. Results indicate that some level of countercyclical payment hedging is optimal for risk-averse decision makers. However, optimal hedge ratios depend on planting time expectations of marketing year average price as well as on what crop, if any, has been planted on countercyclical payment base acres. These results suggest that the ability to hedge may make these payments more decoupled but also illustrate the distortion of producer behavior induced by farm programs.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Countercyclical payment; Expected utility; Hedging; Policy; Risk; Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q13; Q18.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6299

La comercialización de agua en tiempo de sequía: el papel del riesgo y de las expectativas en los mercados de aguas en la agricultura
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hadjigeorgalis,   Ereney.
Published by Asociación de Economistas Agrarios de Chile
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Risk; Water resources; Water rights; Drought.; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97347

Producer Heterogeneity in Crop Insurance Product Decisions within Major Corn Producing States (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Adhikari,   Shyam; Belasco,   Eric J.; Knight,   Thomas O.
PowerPoint presentation
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Risk; Decision-making; Risk and Uncertainty; D81.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48902

Farmer management of production risk on degraded lands: the role of wheat genetic diversity in Tigray Region, Ethiopia
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Di Falco,   Salvatore; Chavas,   Jean-Paul; Smale,   Melinda.
This paper investigates the effects of wheat genetic diversity and land degradation on risk and agricultural productivity in less favored production environments of a developing agricultural economy. Drawing production data from household survey conducted in the highlands of Ethiopia, we estimate a stochastic production function to evaluate the effects of variety richness, land degradation, and their interaction on the mean and the variance of wheat yield. Ethiopia is a centre of diversity for durum wheat and farmers manage complex variety mixtures on multiple plots. Econometric evidence shows that variety richness increases farm productivity. Variety richness also reduces yield variability but only for high levels of genetic diversity. Simulations with...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Land degradation; Wheat production; Productivity; Risk; Genetic diversity; Household surveys; Biodiversity; Stochastic analysis; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55417

Stepping stones for biological invasion: A bioeconomic model of transferable risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Warziniack,   Travis; Finnoff,   David C.; Bossenbroek,   Jonathan; Shogren,   Jason F.; Lodge,   David.
Herein we model the widespread dispersal and management of an invasive species as a weak-link public good. The risk of introduction is driven in part by economic activity, is influenced by policies directed at the risk, and economic activity responds/adapts to the risk. Framed around recent introductions and rapid spread of dreissenid mussels in the Western United States, we find three key results. First, partial equilibrium estimates of welfare loss are significantly overestimated relative to general equilibrium estimates. If ecosystem services and market goods are substitutes the partial equilibrium bias is greater than if they are compliments. Second, well-intended policies do not necessarily reduce overall risk; risk reduction actions can transfer risk...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Bioeconomic; Invasive species; Risk; Weak-link; Welfare; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q2; Q26; Q57.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60957

Migration and Land Rental as Risk Response in Rural China
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ward,   Patrick S.; Shively,   Gerald E.
Households in developing countries take various actions to smooth income or consumption as a means of managing or responding to risk. One of the principal means of smoothing income is through the diversification of income sources, including non-farm employment and rural-urban migration.  An important consumption smoothing strategy involves the accumulation and depletion of assets.  We examine migration and land rental market participation as responses to risk in rural China.  Using a longitudinal data set comprised of households in nine provinces in China from 1991 through 2006, we are able to test for the effect of various manifestations of underlying idiosyncratic and covariate income risk on household responses.  We find that covariate risks increase...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: China; Risk; Consumption smoothing; Income smoothing; International Development; Labor and Human Capital; Risk and Uncertainty; O15; R23; Q15.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103379

Target Markets for Grain and Cotton Marketing Consultants and Market Information Systems
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Vergara,   Oscar; Coble,   Keith H.; Hudson,   Darren; Knight,   Thomas O.; Patrick,   George F.; Baquet,   Alan E.
This paper examines the use of market consultants and market information systems by grain and cotton producers. A model of producer demand for marketing information and consultants is proposed that decomposes price received into exogenous and endogenous components. The analysis is based on a survey of over 1,600 producers.  The results suggest that expenditures on market information systems and market consultants are not independent and, more specifically, expenditures on marketing consultants substitute for expenditures on market information systems.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Expected utility; Market information; Marketing; Risk; Tobit; Marketing.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30780

Ecological Risks of Novel Environmental Crop Technologies Using Phytoremediation as an Example
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Angle,   J. Scott; Linacre,   Nicholas A.
Phytoremediation is the use of living plants, known as hyperaccumulators which absorb unusually large amounts of metals in comparison to other plants. The use of classical plant breeding and new molecular techniques offers great potential to develop crops with the ability to clean up polluted sites. While these technologies have gained widespread attention, prior to commercial development, there are risks that must be considered – only a few of which have received even modest examination. Therefore, the focus of this working paper is to explore specific risks associated with phytoremediation and suggest ways in which these risks can be managed so that new, novel, and innovative plant technologies may be applied to provide low cost and efficient...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk; GMO; Biotechnology; Phytoremediation; Phytoextraction; Phytomining; Environmental risk; Crop Production/Industries; Q16; Q2.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59225

Risk Adjusted Productivity Measures
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Glazyrina,   Anna; Shaik,   Saleem.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Productivity measures; DEA; Hyperbolic distance function; Panel data; Productivity Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56580

Risk-Adjusted Comparison of Conservation Reserve Program Payments Versus Production Payments for a Corn-Soybean Farmer
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ibendahl,   Gregory A.
Conservation reserve program (CRP) payments amount to several billion dollars annually.  Payments are allocated to both remove land from production and to help farmers pay for conservation improvements.  However, research examining whether farmers increase their utility with CRPs is limited.  This paper uses simulation analysis and certainty equivalents to compare farming income to payments under the CRP.  Farming income is a combination of crop production and government payments as specified in the 2002 Farm Bill.  This analysis focuses on farms in three different counties in Kentucky.  Results indicate that CRPs are good choices for many farmers.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Certainty equivalents; Conservation; CRP; Government payments; Risk; Simulation; Q15; Q18; Q16; C15.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43391

Management Type Environmental Policy Instruments – An Empirical Investigation
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sauer,   Johannes; Walsh,   John.
The overall aim of this study is to empirically investigate the cost structure of a management agreement type agri-environmental instrument and to identify factors for cost variation over space and time. We control for the actual level of compliance by using compliance weighted average scheme cost ratios. Beside technological and economic performance measures, we also incorporate risk proxies. In addition, we consider unobserved heterogeneity or path dependency with respect to unknown administrative, spatial and farm specific factors. Hence, we try to disentangle random and fixed scheme cost effects by applying a bootstrapped mixed-effects regression approach using the empirical case of the Environmental Stewardship Scheme in the UK. Regional and sectoral...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Ecosystem Services; Scheme Cost; Risk; Mixed-Effects Regression; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q18; Q57; Q58.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91731

Joint-liability borrowing decisions under risk: Empirical evidence from rural microfinance in Ethiopia
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Berhane Tesfay,   G.; Gardebroek,   Cornelis.
This paper investigates borrowing decisions of rural households from a microfinance in Tigray, Ethiopia using household panel data on 5 years and a dynamic panel probit model. The theoretical model takes two types of risk involved in joint-liability lending explicitly into account: risk of partner failure and the risk of losing future access to credit. Empirical results show that these risks are important in explaining borrowing decisions. Another finding is that the probability of repeat-borrowing is higher than the probability of new participation, with possible implications that perceived joint-liability threats deter participation and easing stringent punishments might help poor households’ access to credit.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Microfinance; Risk; Dynamic panel probit; Financial Economics.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44202

VALUING RISK TRADEOFFS AND VOLUNTARY INSECTICIDE REDUCTION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lohr,   Luanne; Park,   Timothy A.; Higley,   Leon.
Farmer's willingness to voluntarily reduce insecticide use is not considered when regulatory approaches to environmental protection are proposed.  Regulations that require behavior that would voluntarily be undertaken are excessive and economically inefficient. Using survey data from a contingent valuation scenario, we demonstrate the willingness of crop producers in four Midwestern states in the U.S. to trade yield losses for environmental risk reduction by eliminating an insecticide application.  The mean acceptable yield loss for a sample of 1,138 producers in Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska and Ohio is $8.25 per acre. Acceptable yield loss increases with the rated importance of environmental goods (fish, birds, mammals, native plants and endangered species),...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Decision models; Agriculture; Environmental protection; Risk; Contingent valuation; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 1996
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16671

Okonomische Hysterese in der Veredlungsproduktion
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hinrichs,   Jan; Musshoff,   Oliver; Odening,   Martin.
German hog production responds only very limited to price fluctuations in the pork market. The hog production concentrates in a few regions though it does not depend on special natural conditions. Furthermore, the production volume does hardly vary over time. Relatively high market risks, sunk costs, and the flexibility of the decision maker to defer investments characterize decision problems hog production. Thus the real option approach is chosen to explain the inertia in production capacity. Using panel data of specialised hog farms from the German farm accountancy data network (FADN) an empirical investment model is estimated. Formally, the model has the structure of an ordered probit model. This approach allows to test for economic hysteresis in the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Economic Hysteresis; Risk; Real options; Hog production; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18813

Risk Management Strategies by Australian Farmers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nguyen,   Nam C.; Wegener,   Malcolm K.; Russell,   Iean W.; Cameron,   Donald; Coventry,   David; Cooper,   Ian M.
Australian farmers operate in one of the most risky environment in the world. They have to cope with various sources of risk in their businesses. This paper reports results of two case studies undertaken to examine the issues of farming risks and risk management strategies in Australia. The first case study found that climate variability, financial risk, marketing risk, and personal risk were regarded as the major sources of farming risk in the Upper Eyre Peninsula of South Australia. The main management strategies used by farmers included diversifying varieties, minimising tillage, minimising area of risky crops and maximising area of the least-risky crop, having high equity, having farm management deposits and other off-farm investments, and "leaving...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Risk management; Strategies; Farmers; Australia; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24295

Optimal investment in prevention and control of a potential invader: the case of zebra mussels in Florida waterways
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Adams,   Damian C.; Lee,   Donna J.; Rossi,   Frederick J.
The probability of a severe infestation ranges from 2% to 98% depending on investment in monitoring, prevention, and response technology. Given the estimated potential for economic damages, preliminary results indicate that prudent investment in prevention and early response net a present value net return of $10 million over 20 years.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Invasive species; Bio-pollutant; Control cost; Cost transfer; Surface water; Risk; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34933

Pollution Control with Uncertain Stock Dynamics: When, and How, to be Precautious
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Athanassoglou,   Stergios; Xepapadeas,   Anastasios.
Replaced with revised version of paper 10/05/11.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk; Ambiguity; Robust Control; Precautionary Principle; Pollution Control; Environmental Economics and Policy; C61; D80; D81.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/101296

Modelling farm production risk with copulae instead of correlations
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Schulte-Geers,   Matthias; Berg,   Ernst.
The optimisation of production plans is an important topic in agriculture, often related to diversification and specialisation as the classical instruments of coping with production risk. Although the measurement of embedded risk is often inaccurate, it is nevertheless necessary for decision making to describe the common behaviour of different variables in a model. Imprecisely defined relationships influence the “right” choice, why it is important to find a good approximation of the real circumstances. In financial science, copula functions are frequently used instead of correlation coefficients to model joint price behaviour, because of the possibility to link the marginal distributions on multifarious ways. By now, agricultural science makes less use of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Copula; Risk; Weather derivatives; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115996

STIMULATING GROWTH AND MINIMIZING RISK IN AGRICULTURAL LENDING UNDER THE AGRICULTURAL CREDIT GUARANTEE SCHEME FUND (ACGSF) IN BAUCHI STATE, NIGERIA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nasiru,   M.; Jibril,   S.A.; Sani,   R.M.; Sabo,   A.M.
This study examined the impact of ACGSF in stimulating growth and minimizing of risk in Agricultural lending in Bauchi State. Forty three (43) farmers were randomly sampled and data collected through the use of structured questionnaire. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, correlation and multiple regression analysis. The results showed that farmers farm size increased considerably (P&gt;0. 001) after taking the loan and the farm in come also increased (P&lt;0. 001) after taking the loan for an average of two seasons. The results also showed that the educational level of the farmers does not affect loan amount directly even though there is strong positive correlation between the level of farmers’ education and their ability to meaningfully...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Growth; Risk; Agriculture; Credit; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54391

THE POTENTIAL FOR REVENUE INSURANCE POLICIES IN THE SOUTH
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Skees,   Jerry R.; Harwood,   Joy L.; Somwaru,   Agapi; Perry,   Janet E.
The 1996 Farm Act and the 1994 Crop Insurance Reform Act are recent examples of policy changes that have increased risks for U.S. farmers. New products are emerging to help farmers manage risks. This article examines some of the policy changes, farmer responses, and new risk-sharing products. The focus turns to the new revenue insurance products and their potential in the South. While there are reasons to believe revenue insurance should be attractive in the South, any revenue products that use existing crop insurance rates will face difficulties since poor actuarial performance in the South has resulted in relatively high rates.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Crop insurance; Revenue insurance; Risk; Southern agriculture; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15093

An assessment of farmer’s risk exposures and policy impacts on farmer’s risk management strategy
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Anton,   Jesus; Kimura,   Shingo.
This paper describes farmer’s exposures to risks at the individual farm level and develops a model representing the decisions of an individual risk averse farmer facing variability in both prices and yields. A set of stylised risk market instruments is represented. The model is calibrated using farm level data from Germany. Monte-Carlo simulations of the random variables are run, and the corresponding optimal responses are obtained. The main focus of this paper is the interactions between government payments and the farmers’ use of risk market instruments in terms of the potential crowding out of such instruments and impacts on farm return and welfare. Unlike other studies this paper models farming response to payments in terms of production and the use of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Welfare; Crop yield insurance; Forward contracting and Single Farm Payment; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57663

Private Decisions and Public Goods: Trade-Offs in the Conservation Programs in the New Farm Bill: Discussion
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Davis,   Todd D.
The 2002 Farm Bill creates several opportunities for landowners to adopt management practices that protect and improve soil and water quality.  Landowners considering enrollment in conservation programs must compare the monetary and nonmonetary costs and benefits from removing land from production agriculture.  The overall purpose of this invited paper session was to improve the understanding of the factors affecting a landowner’s decision to enroll in conservation programs.  Papers addressed the environmental benefits of conservation programs and compared the returns to enrolling in conservation programs to the returns from production agriculture.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Certainty equivalents; Conservation; Econometrics; Government payments; Risk; Simulation; Q18; Q16; C15; C31.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43417

Rentabilidade e risco na estocagem do café pelos produtores na região de Viçosa - MG
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Aredes,   Alan Figueiredo de; Pereira,   Matheus Wemerson Gomes; Santos,   Vladimir Faria dos; Santos,   Maurinho Luiz dos.
The objective of this article was to evaluate the yield and risk in the production and storage of the Arabian coffee. Cash flows are elaborated for coffee production in two productive systems, one with low productivity and other with high productivity. Twelve different scenarios are simulated, each one representing the returns and risks in the production and storage for every month of the year. The financial indicators Payback Period (PP), Net Present Value (VPL) and Internal Rate of Return (TIR) and the indicator Average Cost (CMe), suggest that high productivity is important to increase profitability and to decrease the activity risk, being the best periods to sale coffee, on the part of the producers, the months that precede the harvest, January,...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Financial Economics; Coffee; Return; Risk.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53876

Reduction of Yield and Income Risk Under Alternative Crop Insurance and Disaster Assistance Plans
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Carriker,   Gordon L.; Williams,   Jeffery R.; Barnaby,   Glenn Arthur, Jr.; Black,   J. Roy.
This study compares the effectiveness of five crop insurance/disaster assistance plans: an individual farm yield insurance plan similar to the current FCIC multi-peril program ; two area yield insurance plans; a farm yield disaster assistance plan; and an area yield disaster assistance plan. These methods are examined for reduction in yield and gross income variability with and without participation in the government deficiency payment programs using farm-level yield data from 98 dryland wheat farms and 38 dryland corn farms in Kansas . Although individual farm yield insurance is complex, suffers from moral hazard and adverse selection problems, and is likely to be the most expensive to administer , it provides more yield and gross income risk reduction...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Crop Insurance; Crop Disaster Assistance; Risk; Wheat; Corn; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1990
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118191

Dryland Wheat variety selection in the Texas High Plain
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Park,   Seong Cheol; Cho,   Jaesung; Bevers,   Stanley J.; Amosson,   Stephen H.; Rudd,   Jackie C.
Selecting the best wheat varieties affects producers’ profit and financial risk. This study identifies the optimal wheat variety selection using the portfolio approach at various risk aversion levels. Results showed that the optimal wheat variety selection was significantly affected by changes in levels of risk aversion of decision makers
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Dryland; Portfolio; Risk; Wheat Variety; Farm Management.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119658

TARGET MOTAD FOR RISK LOVERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: McCamley,   Francis P.; Rudel,   Richard K.
Although risk analyses of discrete alternatives often identify at least one efficient set for persons who prefer risk, preference for risk is usually ignored when the decision variables are continuous.  This paper presents a version of Target MOTAD which can be used when there is preference for risk.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Target MOTAD; Risk seeking; Risk lovers; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; Q12.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35723

RISK MANAGEMENT POTENTIAL OF PRECISION FARMING TECHNOLOGIES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lowenberg-DeBoer,   James.
Initial ideas on risk management uses of precision agricultural technology focused on site-specific treatment of problem areas to reduce the probability of low yields and returns. Recent discussions deal with sensor and remote-sensing information to improve marketing and "as applied maps" as trace-back mechanisms to manage liability. A theoretical model is presented that suggests that there are plausible circumstances under which precision farming can reduce temporal yield variability. Empirical evidence from an on-farm trial of site-specific P&amp;K management in the Eastern Cornbelt supports the hypothesis that precision farming can have risk-reducing benefits.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Food safety; GIS; GPS; Crop insurance; Marketing; Precision farming; Site specific management; Risk; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15366

USING BEST WORST SCALING TO INVESTIGATE PERCEPTIONS OF CONTROL &amp; CONCERN OVER FOOD AND NON-FOOD RISKS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Erdem,   Seda; Rigby,   Dan.
This research locates a series of risks or hazards within a framework characterised by the level of control respondents believe they have over the risks, and the level of worry the risks prompt. It does this for a set of both food and non-food risks. The means by which this is done is novel, and differs from past risk perception analyses in that it questions people directly regarding their relative assessments of the levels of control and worry over the risks presented. The cognitive burden associated with people ranking and scaling items in large sets is notoriously heavy, so this study uses an elicitation method designed to make the process intuitive and cognitively manageable for respondents. The substantive analysis of the risk perceptions has four...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Best-worst scaling; Risk; Perception; Novel technology; E. coli; UK; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108790

Climate change risk and response
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kahrl,   Fredrich; Roland-Holst,   David W.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Energy; Sustainability; Climate change; Risk; Economic conditions; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46721

Current factors of insurance in agriculture
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bokusheva,   Raushan; Heidelbach,   Olaf.
This discussion paper is our response to numerous questions and the desire of our counterparts from the CIS countries to receive more up-to-date information about insurance in agriculture. Accordingly, we have tried to shed light on the main aspects of insurance as one tool of risk management in agriculture. Thus, our purpose is to give the reader information on principles and potential of insurance, its main problems and possible solutions. Additionally, this paper provides a comparative overview of the presently most widespread insurance schemes.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risiko; Versicherung; Versicherungsprodukte; Landwirtschaft; Risk; Insurance; Insurance schemes; Agriculture; Слова: риск; Страхование; Страховые схемы; Сельское хозяйство.; Agribusiness; Farm Management; Industrial Organization; International Development; Risk and Uncertainty; G22; Q14; D82.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92167

Measurement of Commodity Price Risk: an overview of Brazilian agricultural markets
Provedor de dados: 123
Autores: Capitani,Daniel Henrique Dario; Mattos,Fabio.
Abstract: This study explores different procedures to estimate price risk in commodity markets. Focusing on Brazilian agricultural markets, the paper proposes to assess both dispersion and downside risk measures using five different approaches (volatility, coefficient of variation, lower partial moments, value at risk and conditional value at risk). Results suggest that some commodities have large price variability but small downside risk, while other commodities show small price variability and large downside risk. Thus, there is no single answer to the question of which commodity exhibits more price risk, but rather distinct answers depending on how risk is perceived by different individuals. These findings are relevant for agents in the agricultural...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Palavras-chave: Commodity price; Risk; Volatility; Downside risk.
Ano: 2017
URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-20032017000300515

Estimation of the agricultural probability of loss: evidence for soybean in Paraná state
Provedor de dados: 123
Autores: Ozaki,Vitor Augusto; Olinda,Ricardo; Faria,Priscila Neves; Campos,Rogério Costa.
In any agricultural insurance program, the accurate quantification of the probability of the loss has great importance. In order to estimate this quantity, it is necessary to assume some parametric probability distribution. The objective of this work is to estimate the probability of loss using the theory of the extreme values modeling the left tail of the distribution. After that, the estimated values will be compared to the values estimated under the normality assumption. Finally, we discuss the implications of assuming a symmetrical distribution instead of a more flexible family of distributions when estimating the probability of loss and pricing the insurance contracts. Results show that, for the selected regions, the probability distributions present...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Palavras-chave: Risk; Extreme value theory; Probability of loss; Crop insurance.
Ano: 2014
URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-20032014000100002

Dislodgeable residues of methamidophos in staked tomatoes
Provedor de dados: 63
Autores: Evaristo,Arlinda; Baptista,Gilberto Casadei de.
The measurement of dislodgeable pesticide residues is a way of estimating occupational exposure of farmers in their working environment. This study evaluates dislodgeable methamidophos residues on leaves, fruits and soil in staked tomatoes (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill), with the objective of estimating potential exposure. The experiment consisted of four treatments: application of methamidophos in a single rate of 0.6 g a.i. L-1 water; application of a double rate of 1.2 g a.i. L-1 water ; four applications of a single rate; and control. The first spraying in the four-application treatment was made at the beginning of fruit maturation. The later applications followed a 6-day schedule. Spraying of the treatments with one application was simultaneous to the...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Palavras-chave: Lycopersicon esculentum; Pesticide residue; Occupational exposure; Risk.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-90162002000300010

A irrigação do cafezal como alternativa econômica ao produtor - DOI: 10.4025/actasciagron.v32i2.1624
Provedor de dados: 1
Autores: Arêdes, Alan Figueiredo de; DER/UFV; Pereira, Matheus Wemerson Gomes; DER/UFV; Santos, Maurinho Luiz dos; DER/UFV.
Este trabalho objetivou verificar a viabilidade econômica da produção irrigada de café com pivô central em regiões com condições pluviométricas favoráveis à produção. Foram analisados quatro cenários para o nível de preços e três diferentes períodos de duração dos projetos de investimento. De acordo com os indicadores econômicos obtidos, a irrigação do cafezal com pivô central é economicamente superior à alternativa não-irrigada, sendo um fator condicionante para elevação da rentabilidade e diminuição do risco no cultivo do café
Palavras-chave: 6.03.10.01-4 viabilidade econômica; Risco; Café Economia Agrária economic viability; Risk; Coffee.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://periodicos.uem.br/ojs/index.php/ActaSciAgron/article/view/1624

Occupational risks associated with the use of pesticides in the green belt of Córdoba, Argentina
Provedor de dados: 40
Autores: Franchini,Germán; Butinof,Mariana; Blanco,Marcelo P.; Machado,Ana L.; Fernández,Ricardo A.; Díaz,María Del Pilar.
Horticulture is an activity with high occupational risk and few studies have addressed this problem in Argentina. We studied groups of horticultural workers in the Green Belt of Córdoba City (GBCC) (Argentina) and identified some determinants of occupational accidents caused by the use of pesticides. An observational study was conducted, examining demographic, productive and labor issues in 101 workers. A Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) enabled distribution and covariance patterns to be visualized and typologies of individuals to be established. Logistic regression models were used to identify occupational accidents with pesticides. The MCA identified the more vulnerable groups: those using backpacks to apply pesticides, those who sprayed a great...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Palavras-chave: Accidents; Agricultural workers; Pesticides; Risk.
Ano: 2016
URL: http://www.scielo.org.ar/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1851-37432016000100007

Correspondence model of occupational accidents
Provedor de dados: 42
Autores: Conte,Juan C.; Rubio,Emilio A.; García,Ana I.; Cano,Francisco J.
We present a new generalized model for the diagnosis and prediction of accidents among the Spanish workforce. Based on observational data of the accident rate in all Spanish companies over eleven years (7,519,732 accidents), we classified them in a new risk-injury contingency table (19×19). Through correspondence analysis, we obtained a structure composed of three axes whose combination identifies three separate risk and injury groups, which we used as a general Spanish pattern. The most likely or frequent relationships between the risk and injuries identified in the pattern facilitated the decision-making process in companies at an early stage of risk assessment. Each risk-injury group has its own characteristics, which are understandable within the...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Palavras-chave: Correspondence model; Contingency analysis; Risk; Injury; Occupational accidents.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652011000300031

Association of IL-6 and CRP gene polymorphisms with obesity and metabolic disorders in children and adolescents
Provedor de dados: 42
Autores: Todendi,Pâmela F.; Klinger,Elisa I.; Ferreira,Michele B.; Reuter,Cézane P.; Burgos,Miria S.; Possuelo,Lia G.; Valim,Andréia R.M.
Activation of adipose tissue inflammation is associated with obesity caused by lipid accumulation in adipocytes. Through this activation, proinflammatory cytokines, such as Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and C-reactive protein (CRP) seem to influence metabolic disorders. The present study evaluated whether polymorphisms in the CRP (rs1205) and IL-6 (rs1800795, rs2069845) genes are associated with the development of metabolic disorders in children and adolescents. A cross-sectional study was performed, consisting of 470 students from the municipality of Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil, aged 7-17 years. Body mass index (BMI) was classified according to overweight and obesity. Genotyping was performed by real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction(PCR). Anthropometric...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Palavras-chave: Inflammation; Obesity; Polymorphisms; Risk; Schoolchildren.
Ano: 2015
URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652015000200915

Ecosystems services vulnerability of Uramba Marine Protected Area
Provedor de dados: 50
Autores: Uribe-Castañeda,Natalia; Satizabal,Carlos Andrés; Herrera Orozco,Leonardo; Cantera Kintz,Jaime Ricardo.
ABSTRACT Systems of Uramba Marine Protected Area (MPA), like marine and coastal systems worldwide, sustain a great variety of ecosystem services (ES) (i.e. coastal protection, climate regulation, or food provision, etc.). Anthropogenic and natural stressors (i.e. coastal erosion, sea level rise, or overfishing, etc.) can transform, degrade, or limit the supply of ecosystem services. This study explores the vulnerability of Uramba MPA ecosystem services to anthropogenic and natural stressors. Stressors and ecosystems services were characterized by a literature review, an expert’s workshop, fieldtrips for validation, and georeferencing. To calculate the vulnerability of ecosystem services, the magnitude of each stressor, their risks, and their resilience...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Palavras-chave: Stressors; Resilience; Risk; Colombian Pacific; Tropical Eastern Pacific.
Ano: 2020
URL: http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0122-97612020000300095

Association between MFN2 gene polymorphisms and the risk and prognosis of acute liver failure: a case-control study in a Chinese population
Provedor de dados: 56
Autores: Wei,Y.-L.; Tian,Q.; Zhao,X.-X.; Qiu,G.-Z.; Xu,Y.
This study aimed to determine the role of mitofusin 2 (MFN2) gene polymorphisms in the risk and prognosis of acute liver failure (ALF). A total of 298 blood samples were collected from 138 ALF patients (case group) and 160 healthy participants (control group). Coagulation function, glutamic pyruvic transaminase (GPT), glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase (GOT), total bilirubin (TB), blood ammonia and lactic acid (LA) were measured. The predictive evaluation of MFN2 gene polymorphisms in the risk and prognosis of ALF patients was estimated using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, haplotype analysis, binary logistic regression analysis and Cox regression analysis. Higher levels of GPT, GOT, TB, blood ammonia and LA were observed in ALF patients with the GG...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Palavras-chave: Acute liver failure; MFN2; Gene polymorphism; Risk; Prognosis; Chinese population.
Ano: 2017
URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-879X2017000600605

Cyanobacterial toxins in Portugal: effects on aquatic animals and risk for human health
Provedor de dados: 56
Autores: Vasconcelos,V.M.
Toxic cyanobacteria are common in Portuguese freshwaters and the most common toxins are microcystins. The occurrence of microcystin-LR (MCYST-LR) has been reported since 1990 and a significant number of water reservoirs that are used for drinking water attain high levels of this toxin. Aquatic animals that live in eutrophic freshwater ecosystems may be killed by microcystins but in many cases the toxicity is sublethal and so the animals can survive long enough to accumulate the toxins and transfer them along the food chain. Among these, edible mollusks, fish and crayfish are especially important because they are harvested and sold for human consumption. Mussels that live in estuarine waters and rivers where toxic blooms occur may accumulate toxins without...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Palavras-chave: Cyanobacteria; Toxins; Risk; Human health; Microcystins; Accumulation.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-879X1999000300001

Genetic correlation between Prothrombin G20210A polymorphism and retinal vein occlusion risk
Provedor de dados: 56
Autores: Zou,Yuanyuan; Zhang,Xi; Zhang,Jingyi; Ji,Xiangning; Liu,Yuqing; Zhao,Shaozhen.
The aim of this study was to perform an updated meta-analysis to quantitatively investigate the association between G20210A polymorphism of Prothrombin gene and the risk of retinal vein occlusion (RVO), based on the available publications with inconsistent results. We utilized the Stata software to perform the heterogeneity test, association test, Begg's and Egger's tests, and sensitivity analysis. We searched three on-line databases (PubMed, Embase, and WOS) and obtained a total of 422 articles. Based on our selection criteria, 24 case-control studies were finally enrolled in this overall meta-analysis; a subgroup analysis by the factors ethnicity, control source, and RVO type was done. Through the association test of overall meta-analysis, we did not...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Palavras-chave: Prothrombin; Retinal vein occlusion; Polymorphism; Risk; Meta-analysis.
Ano: 2019
URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-879X2019000400604

Aflatoxins, ochratoxin A and zearalenone in maize-based food products
Provedor de dados: 58
Autores: Sekiyama,Beatriz Leiko; Ribeiro,Alessandra Braga; Machinski,Paulo André; Machinski Junior,Miguel.
The occurrence of aflatoxins B1 (AFB1), B2 (AFB2 ), G1 (AFG1 ) and G2 (AFG2 ), ochratoxin A (OA) and zearalenone (ZEA) was evaluated in 121 maize-based food samples collected in the commerce of Maringá City, Paraná State, Brazil. The study was carried out between January 2002 and February 2003. Thin-layer chromatographic method was used to determine the mycotoxins. The recovery averages were 106.6%, 109.4%, 106.6%, 109.4%, 101.8% and 101.7% to AFB1, AFB2, AFG1, AFG2, OA and ZEA, respectively. Three samples (2.5%) were positive to AFB1 (8 to 59 µg/kg), two (1.7%) to AFB2 (2.4 µg/kg), one (0.8%) to OA (64 µg/kg) and one (0.8%) to ZEA (448 µg/kg). The greater frequency of positive samples and also the highest concentration of AFB1 were found in popcorn...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Palavras-chave: Mycotoxins; Risk; Brazilian products derived from maize.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1517-83822005000300016

Perceptions of wheat producers towards risk and risk management strategies: A case study from Turkey
Provedor de dados: 65
Autores: Hayran,Seyit.
ABSTRACT: In this study, risk perception of wheat producers in Turkey was examined based on a case study conducted in Bitlis Province. The data set used in the study was obtained from 157 farmers randomly. Factor analysis was employed to classify risk sources and management strategies, and then multiple regression was used to investigate the relationship between farmers perceptions and some characteristic. Results of this study have shown that economic-based risks were perceived more strongly by farmers. Farmers’ also used more than one risk management strategy to minimize the impact of the risks they face. So, in order to ensure social and economic sustainability and predictability in wheat production and wheat market, the government should be considered...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Palavras-chave: Risk; Risk management; Wheat; Turkey.
Ano: 2019
URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-84782019001200201