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Registros recuperados: 8
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Short-Run Price and Welfare Impacts of Federal Ethanol Policies AgEcon
McPhail, Lihong Lu; Babcock, Bruce A..
Replaced with revised version of paper 06/16/08
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Ethanol policy; Stochastic equilibrium model; Welfare analysis..
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37020
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Spatial Dimensions of US Crop Selection: Recent Responses to Markets and Policy AgEcon
Motamed, Mesbah J.; McPhail, Lihong Lu.
We explicitly measure corn acreage response to the biofuels boom from 2006 to 2010. Specifically, we use newly available micro-scale planting data over time to test whether corn cultivation intensifies in proportion to the proximity of ethanol processors. We control for the endogeneity of plant location to corn acreage by using transportation network data for instruments. Our results show that reducing the distance between a farm and an ethanol plant by one percent increases acreage in corn by 0.64% and reveal a price elasticity of supply of 0.47%. To our knowledge, this is the first study that measures changes in location and intensity of corn planting in response to incentives posed by the recent biofuels boom. The results can serve as a springboard for...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Corn acreage; Ethanol; Panel data analysis; Instrumental variables; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Land Economics/Use; Q1; Q28; C33.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103270
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Ethanol, Mandates, and Drought: Insights from a Stochastic Equilibrium Model of the U.S. Corn Market AgEcon
McPhail, Lihong Lu; Babcock, Bruce A..
The outlook for U.S. corn markets is inextricably linked to what happens to the U.S. ethanol industry, which depends, in turn, on the level of government subsidies and mandates. We develop a stochastic partial equilibrium model to simulate outcomes for the corn market for the 2008/09 marketing year to gain insight into these linkages. The model includes five stochastic variables that are major contributors to corn price volatility: planted acreage, corn yield, export demand, gasoline prices, and capacity of the ethanol industry. Our results indicate that integration of gasoline and corn markets has increased corn price volatility and that the passage of the expanded ethanol mandates in the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) has had modest effects...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: EISA mandate; Ethanol; Price volatility of corn; Stochastic equilibrium; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Political Economy; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6305
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Inside the Black Box: Price Linkage and Transmission Between Energy and Agricultural Markets AgEcon
Du, Xiaodong; McPhail, Lihong Lu.
This study addresses the complex relationship between energy and agricultural markets—represented by corn, ethanol, and gasoline prices—particularly in light of the growth in biofuel production. Contemporaneous price response and transmission of market shocks are investigated in a simultaneous-equation system to disclose fundamental driving forces before and after the development of large-scale ethanol production. We use a dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model to demonstrate a strengthening relationship among corn, ethanol, and gasoline prices. We identify a structural change point at March 25, 2008 using the test by Bai and Perron (2003). The strengthened market relationship is further illustrated by variance decomposition based on a...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Corn; Ethanol; Gasoline; Structural break; Structural VAR; GARCH; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C32; Q11; Q4.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103268
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Competition between the U.S. and West Africa in International Cotton Trade: A Focus on Import Demand in China AgEcon
Muhammad, Andrew; McPhail, Lihong Lu; Kiawu, James.
We estimate the demand for imported cotton in China and assess the competitiveness of cotton-exporting countries. Given the assertion that African cotton producers are ill affected by U.S. cotton subsidies, our focus is the price competition between the C4 countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad and Mali) and United States in China. Demand estimates are used to project how U.S. prices affect China’s imports by country. In comparing demand projections, results show that the relationship between the United States and the C4 has more to do with how U.S. prices can affect global prices rather than any substitute or competitive relationship in the Chinese market.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Africa; China; Cotton; Demand; Imports; United States; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; F17; Q11; Q17.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103210
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U.S. Ethanol Use Dampens Global Crude Oil Prices AgEcon
McPhail, Lihong Lu.
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120824
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Do U.S. Cotton Subsidies Affect Competing Exporters? An Analysis of Import Demand in China AgEcon
Muhammad, Andrew; McPhail, Lihong Lu; Kiawu, James.
We estimate the demand for imported cotton in China and assess the competitiveness of cotton-exporting countries. Given the assertion that developing countries are negatively affected by U.S. cotton subsidies, our focus is the price competition between the United States and competing exporters (Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, India, and Uzbekistan). We further project how U.S. programs affect China’s imports by country. Results indicate that if U.S. subsidies make other exporting countries worse off, this effect is lessened when global prices respond accordingly. If subsidies are eliminated, China’s cotton imports may not fully recover from the temporary spike in global prices.
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: China; Cotton; Import demand; Rotterdam model; Subsidies; United States; West Africa; International Relations/Trade; F17; Q11; Q17.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123786
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Assessing the impact of U.S. ethanol market shocks on global crude oil and U.S. gasoline: A structural VAR approach AgEcon
McPhail, Lihong Lu.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Structural VAR; Ethanol; Crude oil; Gasoline; Shocks; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q1; Q2; Q4.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61136
Registros recuperados: 8
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