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Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems 5
Payne, Mark R.; Barange, Manuel; Cheung, William W. L.; Mackenzie, Brian R.; Batchelder, Harold P.; Cormon, Xochitl; Eddy, Tyler D.; Fernandes, Jose A.; Hollowed, Anne B.; Jones, Miranda C.; Link, Jason S.; Neubauer, Philipp; Ortiz, Ivonne; Queirós, Ana M.; Paula, José Ricardo.
Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type, we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Climate change; Initialization uncertainty; Parametric uncertainty; Projections; Scenario uncertainty; Structural uncertainty; Uncertainty..
Ano: 2016 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00301/41220/40392.pdf
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