SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E..

Replaced with revised version of paper 12/06/06.

AN ANALYSIS OF THE PROPOSED DOHA ROUND MODALITIES

Palavras-chave: Agricultural markets; Energy; Ethanol; Renewable fuels; Crop Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18453

Babcock, Bruce A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Matthey, Holger; Isik, Murat; Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E.; Hart, Chad E.; Full, Frank.

The Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA) provided a continuing mandate for progressive reforms to liberalize world agricultural markets. A new round of negotiation was put into motion in early 2000 and later formalized in what is now called the Doha Round. The Doha Round negotiation follows the same principle laid out in the URAA, with the introduction of three reform anchors: market access, export competition, and reduction of domestic support. This paper specifies the new schedule of commitments for each member country under the proposed modalities and assesses the potential market impacts of these changes for world agricultural markets. We specifically focus on grains, oilseeds, sugar, cotton, livestock, poultry, and dairy markets.

Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects on Grain and Livestock Sectors, and Implications for Food Prices and Consumers

Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18659

Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E.; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Dong, Fengxia; Hart, Chad E.; Chavez, Eddie C.; Pan, Suwen; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Dumortier, Jerome.

We examined four evolution paths of the biofuel sector using a partial equilibrium world agricultural sector model in CARD that includes the new RFS in the 2007 EISA, a two-way relationship between fossil energy and biofuel markets, and a new trend toward corn oil extraction in ethanol plants. At one extreme, one scenario eliminates all support to the biofuel sector when the energy price is low, while the other extreme assumes no distribution bottleneck in ethanol demand growth when the energy price is high. The third scenario considers a pure market force driving ethanol demand growth because of the high energy price, while the last is a policy-induced shock with removal of the biofuel tax credit when the energy price is high. Standard results hold where...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Biofuel; EISA; Ethanol; Tax credit; World agricultural sector model; Agribusiness; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries; Political Economy; Production Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q13; Q18; Q38.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53093

Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects on Grain and Livestock Sectors, and Implications for Food Prices and Consumers

We examine four scenarios for the evolution of the biofuel sector using a partial equilibrium model of the world agricultural sector. The model includes the new Renewable Fuels Standard in the 2007 energy act, the two-way relationship between fossil energy and biofuel markets, and a new trend toward corn oil extraction in ethanol plants. At one extreme, one scenario eliminates all support to the biofuel sector when the energy price is low, while the other extreme assumes no distribution bottleneck in ethanol demand growth when the energy price is high. Of the remaining two scenarios, one considers a pure market force driving ethanol demand growth because of the high energy price while the other is a policy-induced shock with removal of the biofuel tax...

Emerging Biofuels: Outlook of Effects on U.S. Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Markets

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; EISA; Ethanol; Tax credit; World agricultural sector model.; Agricultural and Food Policy.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48597

Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Dong, Fengxia; Hart, Chad E.; Beghin, John C..

Replaced with revised version of paper 06/04/08.

Evaluating the Production and Price Impacts of Biotechnology Application in Crop Markets

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Corn acreage; Crop prices; Ethanol production; Food prices; Crop Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10009

Brookes, Graham; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E..

Biotechnology crop traits have been applied on a widespread commercial global basis since 1996, making it the most rapidly adopted crop technology in agriculture. The primary biotechnologies used have included technology delivering herbicide tolerance and insect resistance for crops, such as corn, soybeans, cotton, and canola. This technology has provided farmers with productivity improvements through a combination of yield improvements and cost reductions. Thus, this technology has had an impact on prices of cereals and oilseeds (and their derivatives) both in countries where biotech traits were applied and in the global market. Realizing the surging significance of biotechnology application in global crop markets, this study first summarizes the...

FAPRI 2006 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook

Palavras-chave: Biotech crops; Prices; Yield; Soybeans; Corn; Canola; Partial-equilibrium model; Price effects; Demand and Price Analysis; Productivity Analysis.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61164

Beghin, John C.; Dong, Fengxia; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Fuller, Frank H.; Hart, Chad E.; Kovarik, Karen; Tokgoz, Simla; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Wailes, Eric J.; Chavez, Eddie C.; Womack, Abner W.; Meyers, William H.; Binfield, Julian C.R.; Brown, D. Scott; Kruse, John R.; Madison, Daniel; Meyer, Seth D.; Westhoff, Patrick C.; Wilcox, Lori.

The FAPRI 2006 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook presents projections of world agricultural production, consumption, and trade under average weather patterns, existing farm policy, and policy commitments under current trade agreements and custom unions. Despite continued high energy prices, world economic growth is expected to remain strong in the coming decade, above 3% per annum. Other major drivers of the 2006 baseline include new bio-energy policies in several large countries, EU sugar policy reform, sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) shocks in livestock and poultry markets, and movements in the exchange rate.

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7319

FAPRI 2007 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook

Global Biofuel Expansion and the Demand for Brazilian Land: Intensification versus Expansion

The FAPRI 2007 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook presents projections of world agricultural production, consumption, and trade under average weather patterns, existing farm policy, and policy commitments under current trade agreements and custom unions. The outlook uses a macroeconomic forecast developed by Global Insight.

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7296

Elobeid, Amani E.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F..

We use a spatially disaggregated model of Brazilian agriculture to assess the implications of global biofuel expansion on Brazilian land usage at the regional level. This Brazilian model is part of the FAPRI agricultural modeling system, a multimarket, multi-commodity international agricultural model, used to quantify the emergence of biofuels and to analyze the impact of biofuel expansion and policies on both Brazilian and world agriculture. We evaluate two scenarios in which we introduce a 25% exogenous increase in the global demand for ethanol and one scenario in which we increase global ethanol demand by 50%. We then analyze the impact of these increases in terms of land-use change and commodity price changes particularly in Brazil. In the first...

Greenhouse Gas and Nitrogen Fertilizer Scenarios for U.S. Agriculture and Global Biofuels

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Brazil; Land use; Land Economics/Use.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103798

Elobeid, Amani E.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Mulik, Kranti; Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Dumortier, Jerome; Rosas, Francisco.

This analysis uses the 2011 FAPRI-CARD (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute–Center for Agricultural and Rural Development) baseline to evaluate the impact of four alternative scenarios on U.S. and world agricultural markets, as well as on world fertilizer use and world agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. A key assumption in the 2011 baseline is that ethanol support policies disappear in 2012. The baseline also assumes that existing biofuel mandates remain in place and are binding. Two of the scenarios are adverse supply shocks, the first being a 10% increase in the price of nitrogen fertilizer in the United States, and the second, a reversion of cropland into forestland. The third scenario examines how lower energy prices would impact world...

Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model

Palavras-chave: Afforestation; Energy price; Ethanol tax credit; Fertilizer; Partial equilibrium model; Policy analysis; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/107043

Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Beghin, John C.; Dong, Fengxia; Elobeid, Amani E.; Tokgoz, Simla; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward).

We quantify the emergence of biofuel markets and its impact on U.S. and world agriculture for the coming decade using the multi-market, multi-commodity international FAPRI (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute) model. The model incorporates the trade-offs between biofuel, feed, and food production and consumption and international feedback effects of the emergence through world commodity prices and trade. We examine land allocation by type of crop, and pasture use for countries growing feedstock for ethanol (corn, sorghum, wheat, sugarcane, and other grains) and major crops competing with feedstock for land resources such as oilseeds. We shock the model with exogenous changes in ethanol demand, first in the United States, then in Brazil, China,...

Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model

Palavras-chave: Acreage; Area; Biofuel; Corn; Crops; Ethanol; FAPRI model; Feedstock; Land; Sugar; Sugarcane.; Agricultural and Food Policy.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48598

Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Beghin, John C.; Dong, Fengxia; Elobeid, Amani E.; Tokgoz, Simla; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward).

We quantify the emergence of biofuel markets and its impact on U.S. and world agriculture for the coming decade using the multi-market multi-commodity international FAPRI model. The model incorporates the tradeoffs between biofuel, feed, and food production and consumption and international feedback effects of the emergence through world commodity prices and trade. We examine land allocation by type of crop, and pasture use for countries growing feedstock for ethanol (corn, sorghum, wheat, sugarcane, and other grains) and major crops competing with feedstock for land resources such as oilseeds. We shock the model with exogenous changes in ethanol demand, first in the United States, then in Brazil, China, EU, and India, and compute shock multipliers for...

Long-Term and Global Tradeoffs between Bio-Energy, Feed, and Food

Palavras-chave: Acreage; Area; Biofuel; Corn; Crops; Ethanol; FAPRI model; Feedstock; Land; Sugar; Sugarcane; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q42; Q17; Q15.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6183

Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Dong, Fengxia; Hart, Chad E.; Beghin, John C..

Projections of U.S. ethanol production and its impacts on planted acreage, crop prices, livestock production and prices, trade, and retail food costs are presented under the assumption that current tax credits and trade policies are maintained. The projections were made using a multi-product, multi-country deterministic partial equilibrium model. The impacts of higher oil prices, a drought combined with an ethanol mandate, and removal of land from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) relative to baseline projections are also presented. The results indicate that expanded U.S. ethanol production will cause long-run crop prices to increase. In response to higher feed costs, livestock farmgate prices will increase enough to cover the feed cost increases....

Market Impact of Domestic Offset Programs

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Corn acreage; Crop prices; Ethanol production; Food prices; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9811

Brown, Tristan; Elobeid, Amani E.; Dumortier, Jerome; Hayes, Dermot J..

Three recent reports have estimated the market impacts of domestic offset programs, including afforestation, contained in the American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES). The magnitude of these estimated impacts motivates this study. We show that with carbon prices as low as $30 per metric ton, a significant number of U.S. crop acres would be used to grow trees and this would cause price increases for some U.S. commodities. Although we present only one carbon price scenario, the modeling approach that we use suggests that the acreage and price impacts we describe here would increase at higher carbon prices.

Mitigating Land Use Changes From Biofuel Expansion: An Assessment of Biofuel Feedstock Yield Potential in APEC Economies

Palavras-chave: Afforestation; Agricultural sector; Commodity prices; Land-use change.; Agribusiness; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56345

Elobeid, Amani E.; Tokgoz, Simla; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward).

The emerging biofuel sector has drawn great interest as an alternative source of fuel for transportation. The expansion of biofuels greatly impacts world agricultural markets, since currently, the primary feedstocks for ethanol and biodiesel production are field crops and their derived products. There is great interest in the potential of countries to expand their biofuel sectors through increased production of feedstocks. The long-term potential for developing first-generation biofuels in many countries depends on a large and constant supply of feedstocks. This may be achieved in two ways: land extensification and/or land intensification. However, expansion of land area comes with a number of environmental challenges highlighted by the recent debate on...

Modeling the Effects of Pasture Expansion on Emissions from Land-Use Change

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Yield growth; APEC; Land Economics/Use; Productivity Analysis.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61178

Dumortier, Jerome; Hayes, Dermot J.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Dong, Fengxia; Du, Xiaodong; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Mulik, Kranti.

Replaced with revised version of paper 12/14/2010.