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Registros recuperados: 21
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Ambiguous Aggregation of Expert Opinions: The Case of Optimal R&D Investment 31
Athanassoglou, Stergios; Bosetti, Valentina; Maere d'Aertrycke, Gauthier de.
How should a decision-maker allocate R&D funds when a group of experts provides divergent estimates on a technology's potential effectiveness? To address this question, we propose a simple decision-theoretic framework that takes into account ambiguity over the aggregation of expert opinion and a decision-maker's attitude towards it. In line with the paper's focus on R&D investment, decision variables in our model may affect experts' subjective probability distributions of the future potential of a technology. Using results from convex optimization, we are able to establish a number of analytical results including a closed-form expression of our model's value function, as well as a thorough investigation of its differentiability properties. We apply...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Ambiguity; Expert Opinions; R&D; Convex/Conic Optimization; Aggregation; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; C61; D81; Q42.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121719
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Avoiding Environmental Catastrophes: Varieties of Principled Precaution 7
Johnson, Alan R; Clemson University; Alanj@Clemson.edu.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis Palavras-chave: Adaptive management; Aldo Leopold; Ambiguity; Blaise Pascal; Daniel Ellsberg; Decision theory; Future generations; Gifford Pinchot; Intelligent tinkering; Precautionary principle; Resilience; Risk; Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
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Captive insurance companies and the management of non-conventional corporate risks 31
Lesourd, Jean-Baptiste; Schilizzi, Steven.
We examine under what conditions setting up a captive insurance company with reinsurance is an optimal solution for risk-averse firms when the insured firm, the insurer and the reinsurer do not know the probability distribution of some risks, and have conflicting estimates of this distribution.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Corporate insurance; Reinsurance; Uncertainty; Ambiguity; Non-conventional risks; Captive insurance companies; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; G22; Q2.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100886
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Discounting and confidence 31
Traeger, Christian P..
Revision of CUDARE Working Paper 1117 issued June 2011
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Discounting; Climate change; Ambiguity; Confidence; Subjective beliefs; Prudence; Pessimism; Expected utility; Intertemporal substitutability; Intertemporal risk aversion; Risk and Uncertainty; D61; Q54; D81; D90.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120418
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Editorial: Special Feature on Scenarios for Ecosystem Services 7
Carpenter, Stephen R; University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA; srcarpen@wisc.edu; Bennett, Elena M.; McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada; elena.bennett@mcgill.ca; Peterson, Garry D; McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada; garry.peterson@mcgill.ca.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed article Palavras-chave: Adaptive governance; Ambiguity; Ecological change; Ecosystem services; Poverty reduction; Regime shift; Resilience; Scenarios..
Ano: 2006
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From Risk Assessment to Knowledge Mapping: Science, Precaution, and Participation in Disease Ecology 7
Stirling, Andy C.; Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Sussex; a.c.stirling@sussex.ac.uk; Scoones, Ian; Institute for Development Studies, University of Sussex; i.scoones@ids.ac.uk.
Governance of infectious disease risks requires understanding of often indeterminate interactions between diverse, complex, open, and dynamic human and natural systems. In the face of these challenges, worldwide policy making affords disproportionate status to “ science-based” risk-assessment methods. These reduce multiple, complex dimensions to simple quantitative parameters of “outcomes” and “probabilities,” and then re-aggregate across diverse metrics, contexts, and perspectives to yield a single ostensibly definitive picture of risk. In contrast, more precautionary or participatory approaches are routinely portrayed as less rigorous, complete, or robust. Yet, although conventional...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Ambiguity; Ignorance; Participation; Precaution; Risk; Uncertainty..
Ano: 2009
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Irreversible Investment, Uncertainty and Ambiguity: The Case of the Bioenergy Sector 31
Jouvet, Pierre-Andre; Le Cadre, Elodie; Orset, Caroline.
We analyse the decision of an agent to invest and engage in industrial activities that are characterized by two forms of uncertainty: market size uncertainty and competitive effect uncertainty. We apply our model on the bioenergy industries. We compare the case of an ambiguity neutral agent with that of an ambiguity adverse agent. We show that the investment decision of an agent depends on the effects of both the capital investment and the level of production on the cost and the uncertainty the agent is confronted with. Moreover, we find that ambiguity aversion tends to decrease the agent's optimal levels of production and investment. Our numerical analysis of the French case illustrates the different effects associated with market size uncertainty and...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Ambiguity; Bioenergy; Irreversible investment; Uncertainty; Agricultural and Food Policy; D21; D81; Q42; Q23.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115437
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Parental Response to Health Risk Information: A Lab Experiment on Evaluating Willingness-to-Pay for Safer Infant Milk Formula 31
Goldberg, Isabell; Roosen, Jutta; Nayga, Rodolfo M., Jr..
Enterobacter sakazakii, a pathogen that can be found in powdered infant milk formula, can cause adverse health effects on infants. Using Vickrey auction, this study examines parents' willingness to pay (WTP) for a quality assurance label on powdered infant milk formula. The influence of ambiguity with the incidence rate information and provision of safe-handling information on WTP are also evaluated using three experiments/treatments. Results generally suggest that parents are willing to pay for quality assurance label. The mean price premium parents are willing to pay for the safer and quality assurance labelled powdered infant milk formula ranges from 61 to 133 Eurocents per 100 grams depending on the treatment. While no ambiguity effects are generally...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Ambiguity; Food Safety; Health Risk Information; Lab Experiment; Powdered Infant Milk Formula; Willingness-to-Pay; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Health Economics and Policy; D18; D80; I12; Q18.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25672
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Pollution Control with Uncertain Stock Dynamics: When, and How, to be Precautious 31
Athanassoglou, Stergios; Xepapadeas, Anastasios.
Replaced with revised version of paper 10/05/11.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Risk; Ambiguity; Robust Control; Precautionary Principle; Pollution Control; Environmental Economics and Policy; C61; D80; D81.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/101296
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Quality Ambiguity and the Market Mechanism for Credence Goods 31
Benner, Dietrich.
With credence goods consumers cannot judge actual quality neither before purchase (ex ante) nor after purchase (ex post). Trust has to replace own examination and verification. Applying Choquet-Expected Utility theory, ageneral model of credence goods is developed wich takes the problem of trust explicitly in its view and generalizes the problem of quality uncertainty on the 'market for lemmons' of Akerlof (1970) to 'quality ambiguity' with credence goods. The model shows the market mechanism only performing well in providing credence goods when consumers' trust in given information is not too low. With trust too low, sellers of credence good will be driven out of the market by trust induced adverse selection. In market equilibrium prices will always be...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Credence goods; Asymmetric information; Quality ambiguity; Quality uncertainty; Adverse selection; Ambiguity; Choquet expected utility; Agricultural and Food Policy; Marketing; C72; D81; D82.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98639
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Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview 7
Carpenter, Stephen R; University of Wisconsin-Madison; srcarpen@wisc.edu; Bennett, Elena M; University of Wisconsin-Madison; embennett@wisc.edu; Peterson, Garry D; McGill University; garry.peterson@mcgill.ca.
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Adaptive governance; Ambiguity; Ecological change; Ecosystem services; Poverty reduction; Regime shift; Resilience; Response diversity; Scenarios uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
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Second-Order Ambiguity in Very Low Probability Risks: Food Safety Valuation 31
Kivi, Paul A.; Shogren, Jason F..
Food consumption involves inherently risky decisions with uncertain probabilities. This study examines how second-order ambiguity, or uncertainty over probabilities, affects food safety decisions. We conduct a food safety survey wherein subjects face both unambiguous and ambiguous situations, each with the same expected value. Respondents show a preference for unambiguous situations and state a willingness to pay to avoid ambiguity
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Ambiguity; Ambiguity avoidance; Expected utility theory; Food safety; Low probability events; Risk; Second-order probabilities; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97857
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Subjective Risk, Confidence, and Ambiguity 31
Traeger, Christian P..
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Ambiguity; Subjective beliefs; Expected utility; Intertemporal substitutability; Intertemporal risk aversion; Recursive utility; Uncertainty; Climate change; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; Q54; D90; Q01.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90461
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The economic value of food labels: A lab experiment on safer infant milk formula 31
Goldberg, Isabell; Roosen, Jutta; Nayga, Rodolfo M., Jr..
Enterobacter sakazakii, a pathogen that can be found in powdered infant milk formula, can cause adverse health effects on infants. Using Vickrey auction, this study examines parents' willingness to pay (WTP) for a quality assurance label on powdered infant milk formula. The influence of ambiguity with the incidence rate information and provision of safe-handling information on WTP are also evaluated using three experiments/treatments. The mean price premium parents are willing to pay for the safer and quality assurance labelled powdered infant milk formula ranges from 61 to 133 Eurocents per 100 grams depending on the treatment. While no ambiguity effects are generally found, provision of safe-handling information has a significant influence on WTP. When...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Ambiguity; Food Safety; Health Risk Information; Lab Experiment; Powdered Infant Milk Formula; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10064
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The Effect of Communicating Ambiguous Risk Information on Choice 31
Melkonyan, Tigran A..
Decision makers are frequently confronted with ambiguous risk information about activities with potential hazards. This may be a result of conflicting risk estimates from multiple sources or ambiguous risk information from a single source. The paper considers processing ambiguous risk information and its effect on the behavior of a decision maker with a-maximin expected utility preferences. The effect of imprecise risk information on behavior is related to the content of information, the decision maker’s trust in different sources of information, and his or her aversion to ambiguity.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: A-Maximin Expected Utility; Aggregation of expert opinions; Ambiguity; Knightian uncertainty; Risk communication; Trust in information source; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117170
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The Social Discount Rate under Intertemporal Risk Aversion and Ambiguity 31
Traeger, Christian P..
The social discount rate crucially determines optimal mitigation policies. This paper examines two shortcomings of the recent debate and the models on climate change assessment. First, removing an implicit assumption of (intertemporal) risk neutrality reduces the growth effect in social discounting and significantly amplifies the importance of risk and correlation. Second, debate and models largely overlook the difference in attitude with respect to risk and with respect to non-risk uncertainty. The paper derives the resulting changes of the risk-free and the stochastic social discount rate and points out the importance of even thin tailed uncertainty for climate change evaluation.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Ambiguity; Discounting; Expected utility; Intertemporal substitutability; Intertemporal risk aversion; Recursive utility; Risk aversion; Social discount rate; Uncertainty; Political Economy; Risk and Uncertainty; D61; D81; D90; H43; Q00; Q54.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55785
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Tipping Points and Ambiguity in the Economics of Climate Change 31
Lemoine, Derek M.; Traeger, Christian P..
Replaced with revised version of paper Feb 13, 2012 available at http://purl.umn.edu/120349
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Threshold; Climate; Integrated assessment; Regime shift; Ambiguity; Uncertainty; Dynamic programming; Social cost of carbon; Tipping point; Carbon tax; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q54; D90; D81.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98127
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Tipping points and ambiguity in the economics of climate change 31
Lemoine, Derek M.; Traeger, Christian P..
Replaces CUDARE Working Paper no. 1111, with the title; Tipping Points and Ambiguity in the Integrated Assessment of Climate Change, issued 12-26-2010
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Tipping point; Threshold; Regime shift; Ambiguity; Climate; Uncertainty; Integrated assessment; Dynamic programming; Social cost of carbon; Carbon tax; Political Economy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q54; D90; D81.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120349
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Toward a Relational Concept of Uncertainty: about Knowing Too Little, Knowing Too Differently, and Accepting Not to Know 7
Dewulf, Art; Public Administration and Policy Group, Wageningen University; art.dewulf@psy.kuleuven.be; Taillieu, Tharsi; Center for Work, Organizational and Personnel Psychology, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven; tharsi.taillieu@psy.kuleuven.be.
Uncertainty of late has become an increasingly important and controversial topic in water resource management, and natural resources management in general. Diverse managing goals, changing environmental conditions, conflicting interests, and lack of predictability are some of the characteristics that decision makers have to face. This has resulted in the application and development of strategies such as adaptive management, which proposes flexibility and capability to adapt to unknown conditions as a way of dealing with uncertainties. However, this shift in ideas about managing has not always been accompanied by a general shift in the way uncertainties are understood and handled. To improve this situation, we believe it is necessary to recontextualize...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Adaptive management; Ambiguity; Frames; Framing; Knowledge relationship; Multiple knowledge frames; Natural resource management; Negotiation; Participation; Social learning; Uncertainty; Water management.
Ano: 2008
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Uncovering the origin of ambiguity in nature-inclusive flood infrastructure projects 7
van den Hoek, Ronald E.; University of Twente; r.e.vandenhoek@utwente.nl; Brugnach, Marcela; University of Twente; marcela.brugnach@gmail.com; Mulder, Jan P. M.; University of Twente; Deltares; jan.mulder@deltares.nl; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; University of Twente; a.y.hoekstra@utwente.nl.
We aimed to uncover the origin of ambiguity in flood infrastructure projects using Building with Nature (BwN) design principles. BwN is a new approach in flood management that simultaneously integrates societal goals, such as flood safety and recreation development, with nature development goals by actively using natural dynamics and materials in the project’s design. Because BwN projects affect multiple stakeholders and several societal functions, participatory project development is of key importance to successfully implement these projects. In such a multiactor decision-making process, a diversity of actors are involved, all of whom have their own view of the project based on their interests, values, beliefs, backgrounds, and past experiences....
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Ambiguity; Building with Nature; Flood management; Framing; Participatory processes; Water policy.
Ano: 2014
Registros recuperados: 21
Primeira ... 12 ... Última
 

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