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The three phases of the ensemble forecasting of niche models: geographic range and shifts in climatically suitable areas of Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae) Rev. Bras. entomol.
Diniz Filho,José Alexandre Felizola; Ferro,Viviane G.; Santos,Thiago; Nabout,João Carlos; Dobrovolski,Ricardo; De Marco Jr.,Paulo.
Species' geographic ranges are usually considered as basic units in macroecology and biogeography, yet it is still difficult to measure them accurately for many reasons. About 20 years ago, researchers started using local data on species' occurrences to estimate broad scale ranges, thereby establishing the niche modeling approach. However, there are still many problems in model evaluation and application, and one of the solutions is to find a consensus solution among models derived from different mathematical and statistical models for niche modeling, climatic projections and variable combination, all of which are sources of uncertainty during niche modeling. In this paper, we discuss this approach of ensemble forecasting and propose that it can be divided...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Arctiidae; Climate change; Geographic range; Niche models; Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010 URL:
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