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Modeling Texas Dryland Cotton Yields, With Application to Crop Insurance Actuarial Rating AgEcon
Chen, Shu-Ling; Miranda, Mario J..
Texas dryland upland cotton yields have historically exhibited greater variation and more distributional irregularities than the yields of other crops, raising concerns that conventional parametric distribution models may generate biased or otherwise inaccurate crop insurance premium rate estimates. Here, we formulate and estimate regime-switching models for Texas dryland cotton yields in which the distribution of yield is conditioned on local drought conditions. Our results indicate that drought-conditioned regime-switching models provide a better fit to Texas county-level dryland cotton yields than conventional parametric distribution models. They do not, however, generate significantly different Group Risk Plan crop insurance premium rate estimates.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Actuarial rating; Adverse selection; Cotton; Crop insurance; Group risk plan; Regime-switching; Yield distribution; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Q10; Q14; Q18.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45522
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Price transmission in the Spanish bovine sector: the BSE effect AgEcon
Hassouneh, Islam; Serra, Teresa; Gil, Jose Maria.
A regime-switching vector error correction model is applied to monthly price data to assess the impact of BSE outbreaks on price relationships and patterns of transmission among farm and retail markets for bovine in Spain. To evaluate the degree to which price transmission is affected by BSE food scares, a BSE food scare index is developed and used to determine regime-switching. Results suggest that BSE scares affect beef producers and retailers differently. Consumer prices are found to be weakly exogenous and not found to react to BSE scares, while producer prices conversely adjusted. The magnitude of the adjustment is found to depend on the magnitude of the BSE scare.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: BSE crisis; Price transmission; Regime-switching; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Political Economy; Production Economics; C22; C32.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50121
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