Data/hora: 01/06/2024 17:47:34

Provedor de dados: 	20	
País: 	Belgium	
Título: 	Modelo de regresión lineal múltiple para determinar influencias del índice Niño 1+2 y la MJO sobre las precipitaciones en Guayaquil durante enero-febrero-marzo y abril

Linear regression model to determine the influence of El Niño 1+2 and MJO indexes over the precipitation in Guayaquil during January-February-March and April	
Autores: 	Nieto, J.J.	
Data: 	2008-05-23	
Ano: 	2007	
Palavras-chave: 	Mathematical analysis; Atmospheric precipitations; Atmospheric circulation; Seasonal variations; Surface temperature; Atmospheric circulation; Http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29546.	
Resumo: 	There were elaborated multiple linear regression models to determine the adjustment degree of niño 1+2 and Madden-Julian Oscillation indexes with the accumulated precipitation in Guayaquil, for january, february, march, and april. The correlation models were built separately for each month with time series from 1978 to 2004 of monthly accumulated precipitation, niño 1+2 anomaly, and Madden-Julian Oscillation index for 120W, with a significance level of 95%. It was found that for january, march, and april the linear correlation adjust with coefficients R2 of 0.80, 0.77, and 0.82 respectively. The precipitation levels for february does not showed significant correlation with the indexes, it seems to respond to other factors, presumably atmospheric. There were made comparisons between the values calculated with the models and the observed precipitation levels of the years 2005, 2006, and 2007 in order to determine the hit score of the forecast. To perform comparisons there were established three ranges based on the tercicles of the observed data time series. The ranges were defined as below normal (lower tercil), normal (middle tercil), and above normal (upper tercil). It was found that for march the skill score is 100% however, forecasted values for january and march, showed a low skill score. The regression model found may serve as a tool to find relations between precipitations, sea temperature and atmospheric convergence.	
Tipo: 	Journal Contribution	
Idioma: 	Espanhol	
Identificador: 	Acta Oceanográfica del Pacífico, 14(1). p. 25-30

1390-0226

http://hdl.handle.net/1834/2380	
Editor: 	Instituto Oceanográfico de la Armada, Guayaquil, Ecuador