Data/hora: 05/06/2024 10:22:40

Provedor de dados: 	65	
País: 	Brazil	
Título: 	Modeling extreme minimum air temperature series under climate change conditions	
Autores: 	Blain,Gabriel Constantino.	
Data: 	2011-11-01	
Ano: 	2011	
Palavras-chave: 	Time-dependent model; Probability function; Non-stationary approach.	
Resumo: 	Considering the presence of non-stationary components, such as trends, in the extreme minimum air temperature series available from three locations of the State of São Paulo-Brazil, the aim of this research was to describe the probabilistic structure of this variable by using a non-stationary model (based on the general extreme value distribution; GEV model) in which the parameters are estimated as a function of time covariate. The Mann-Kendall test has proven the presence of significant increasing trends in all analyzed series. Furthermore, according to the Pettitt (changing-point) test, 1991 is the initial year of these trends (in the three locations). The applied selection criteria indicated that a GEV model in which the location parameter is estimated as a function of time is recommended to describe the probability structure of the variable under evaluation. The others two parameters of this model remained time-independent. According to this non-stationary model, the detected trends in the climate conditions of these locations have shown the same rate of change (0.04°C per year).	
Tipo: 	Info:eu-repo/semantics/article	
Idioma: 	Inglês	
Identificador: 	http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-84782011001100005	
Editor: 	Universidade Federal de Santa Maria	
Relação: 	10.1590/S0103-84782011001100005	
Formato: 	text/html	
Fonte: 	Ciência Rural  v.41 n.11 2011	
Fonte: 	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess