Data/hora: 12/06/2024 06:46:56

Provedor de dados: | 86
País: | Brazil
Título: | Economic and climatic models for estimating coffee supply
Autores: | Moraes-Oliveira,Adriana Ferreira de; Aparecido,Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira; Figueira,Sérgio Rangel Fernandes.
Data: | 2017-12-01
Ano: | 2017
Palavras-chave: | Coffea arabica; Climate; Econometrics; Modelling; Rural credit.
Resumo: | Abstract: The objective of this work was to estimate the coffee supply by calibrating statistical models with economic and climatic variables for the main producing regions of the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The regions were Batatais, Caconde, Cássia dos Coqueiros, Cristais Paulista, Espírito Santo do Pinhal, Marília, Mococa, and Osvaldo Cruz. Data on coffee supply, economic variables (rural credit, rural agricultural credit, and production value), and climatic variables (air temperature, rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, water deficit, and water surplus) for each region, during the period from 2000-2014, were used. The models were calibrated using multiple linear regression, and all possible combinations were tested for selecting the variables. Coffee supply was the dependent variable, and the other ones were considered independent. The accuracy and precision of the models were assessed by the mean absolute percentage error and the adjusted coefficient of determination, respectively. The variables that most affect coffee supply are production value and air temperature. Coffee supply can be estimated with multiple linear regressions using economic and climatic variables. The most accurate models are those calibrated to estimate coffee supply for the regions of Cássia dos Coqueiros and Osvaldo Cruz.
Tipo: | Info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Idioma: | Inglês
Identificador: | http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-204X2017001201158

Editor:

Embrapa Secretaria de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento

Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira

Relação: | 10.1590/s0100-204x2017001200004
Formato: | text/html
Fonte: | Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira  v.52 n.12 2017
Fonte: | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess