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Provedor de dados:  AgEcon
País:  United States
Título:  The Accession of Romania to the European Union - Scenario Analysis for Key Agricultural Crop Markets Using AGMEMOD Model
Autores:  Gavrilescu, Camelia
Gavrilescu, Dinu
Kevorchian, Cristian
Data:  2006-06-30
Ano:  2006
Palavras-chave:  Romania
Econometric model
EU accession
Crop Production/Industries
Resumo:  Aiming the EU accession put new and significant challenges to the candiadte countries' policies, and the problem of the inclusion of their agricultural sectors was among the most difficult ones. AGMEMOD is an econometric model of the EU-25 + 2 candidate countries (Romania and Bulgaria) agricultural sector. This poster presents the baseline and the scenario results for several key agricultural products of Romania's model developed as part of AGMEMOD model. The model is an econometric, dynamic, multi-product partial equilibrium comodity model. The target of this approach is to evaluate the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy reforms upon the country's agricultural sector in perspective of its accession to the EU. The selected commodities are: soft wheat, barley, maize and sunflower. The baseline scenario depicts the results of the agricultural sector in Romania if the country would not join the EU and would continue with its own agricultural policy as applied until now. The main conclusion coming from the analysis of the baseline scenario is that rather few significant changes in the Romanian agricultural production would have occurred, such as mod est positive evolution of production and consumption for wheat and sunflower, and some stagnation in barley and maize. The Accession scenario of the model indicates a significant positive effect upon the wheat, maize and sunflower production. Together with a moderate increase in the consumption, overall some surpluses for export would be available, modest for maize, but significant for sunflower.
Tipo:  Conference Paper or Presentation
Idioma:  Inglês
Identificador:  22786
Editor:  AgEcon Search
Relação:  International Association of Agricultural Economists>2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia
Poster Paper
Formato:  11


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