Sabiia Seb
        Busca avançada

Botão Atualizar

Botão Atualizar

Registro completo
Provedor de dados:  AgEcon
País:  United States
Título:  Green Revolution Counterfactuals
Autores:  Evenson, Robert E.
Rosegrant, Mark W.
Msangi, Siwa
Sulser, Timothy B.
Data:  2006-06-01
Ano:  2006
Palavras-chave:  Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies
Resumo:  In this paper, we conduct two “"counterfactual" simulations for the 30-year period 1970-2000-the first holding 1970 crop genetic improvements (CGI) constant and the second presuming the International Agricultural Research Center (IARC) system had not been built. Both these counterfactuals apply to developing countries only. The core estimates on which the counterfactuals are based include country fixed effects , and the key estimates are for the Dietary Energy Sufficiency (DES) equation. DES affects birth rates, death rates, child mortality rates and malnutrition rates, making it possible to “"endogenize”" population growth in developing countries, in the counterfactuals. Reduced DES levels (from reduced CGI contributions) will lead to more births, more deaths and more child deaths and higher levels of malnutrition. The key technology variables that determine DES are the number of agricultural scientists per million hectares of cropland, the average years of schooling of adult males (over 25), and the level of Green Revolution Modern Varieties (GRMV) adoption. Our results show striking contrasts between the historical record and the alternative counterfactuals. The worst outcome is that without any Green Revolution Technologies or an IARC system to support it, which results in holding technological advancements constant at the 1970 level is a marginal improvement, leading to much higher prices over time, as agricultural production struggles to keep up with food demand in those countries. The endogenous feedback effects of population show the importance of nutrition and education, and argue strongly in favor of those factors playing a significant role in the improvement of human well-being that has been observed since the start of the Green Revolution to present.
Tipo:  Conference Paper or Presentation
Idioma:  Inglês
Identificador:  22013
Editor:  AgEcon Search
Relação:  American Agricultural Economics Association>2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA
Selected Paper
Formato:  25


Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária - Embrapa
Todos os direitos reservados, conforme Lei n° 9.610
Política de Privacidade
Área restrita

Parque Estação Biológica - PqEB s/n°
Brasília, DF - Brasil - CEP 70770-901
Fone: (61) 3448-4433 - Fax: (61) 3448-4890 / 3448-4891 SAC:

Valid HTML 4.01 Transitional