Consulta: creatorFacets:"Good,   Darrel L."
Registros recuperados: 77
Data/hora: 05/06/2024 00:22:23

THE PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES IN CORN AND SOYBEANS OVER 1995-2000
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Good,   Darrel L.; Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes; Irwin,   Scott H.
The purpose of this research report is to evaluate the pricing performance of market advisory services for the 1995-2000 corn and soybean crops. Certain explicit assumptions are made to produce a consistent and comparable set of results across the different advisory programs. These assumptions are intended to accurately depict "real-world" marketing conditions. Several key assumptions are: i) with a few exceptions, the marketing window for a crop year runs from September before harvest through August after harvest, ii) cash prices and yields refer to a central Illinois farm, iii) storage is assumed to occur at on-farm or commercial sites, and iv) marketing loan recommendations made by advisory programs are followed wherever feasible. Based on these...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14784

THE PERFORMANCE OF AGRICULTURAL MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES IN CORN AND SOYBEANS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Irwin,   Scott H.; Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes; Good,   Darrel L.
The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the performance of market advisory services for the 1995-2000 corn and soybean crops. A new database from the Agricultural Market Advisory Services (AgMAS) Project is used in the evaluation. This database should not be subject to survivorship and hindsight biases. Overall, the results provide limited evidence that advisory programs as a group outperform market benchmarks, particularly after considering risk. In contrast, some evidence exists that advisory programs as a group outperform the farmer benchmark, even after taking risk into account. There is little evidence that advisory programs with superior performance can be usefully selected based on past performance.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22256

Weather, Technology, and Corn and Soybean Yields in the U.S. Corn Belt
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tannura,   Michael A.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between weather, technology, and corn and soybean yields in the U.S. Corn Belt. Corn and soybean yields, monthly temperature, and monthly precipitation observations were collected over 1960 through 2006 for Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa. Multiple regression models were developed based on specifications found in studies by Thompson (1962 1963 1969 1970 1985 1986 1988). Estimated models explained at least 94% and 89% of the variation in corn and soybean yields for each state, respectively. Analysis of the regression results showed that corn yields were particularly affected by technology, the magnitude of precipitation during June and July, and the magnitude of temperatures during July and August....
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37501

Should Farmers Follow the Recommendations of Market Advisory Services? A Bayesian Approach to Performance Evaluation
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cabrini,   Silvina M.; Good,   Darrel L.; Irwin,   Scott H.
This paper employs a Bayesian hierarchical approach to estimate individual expected performance of market advisory programs in corn and soybeans.  This estimation procedure is a conservative approach compared to traditional estimation, since it reduces estimation error in the expected gains from following top-performing advisory programs. Three versions of the model are estimated. The first combines information across the entire sample, while the second includes skeptical beliefs based on the efficient market hypothesis.  The third divides programs into two groups based on the degree of activeness in marketing recommendations.  Results indicate that even when skeptical beliefs are incorporated into the model a few programs in corn and several programs in...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19002

THE PRIVATE SECTOR APPROACH TO GRAIN MARKETING: THE CASE OF AGRICULTURAL MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.; Jackson,   Thomas E.
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the pricing performance and behavior of market advisory services in corn and soybeans.  Data on corn and soybean net price received for advisory services, as reported by the AgMAS Project, are available for the 1995, 1996 and 1997 marketing years.  Performance test results suggest that, on average, market advisory services exhibit a small ability to "beat the market".  This conclusion is somewhat sensitive to the type of performance test and market benchmark considered.  The predictability results provide little evidence that future advisory service pricing performance can be predicted from past performance.  Marketing profiles identify three marketing "styles":  i) "scale-up" sales, ii) selective hedging and...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19579

The Marketing Performance of Illinois and Kansas Wheat Farmers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dietz,   Sarah N.; Aulerich,   Nicole M.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the marketing performance of wheat farmers in Illinois and Kansas over 1982-2004. The results show that farmer benchmark prices for wheat in Illinois and Kansas fall in the middle-third of the price range about half to three-quarters of the time. Consistent with previous studies, this refutes the contention that Illinois and Kansas wheat farmers routinely market the bulk of their wheat crop in the bottom portion of the price range. Tests of the average difference between farmer and market benchmark prices are sensitive to the market benchmark considered. Marketing performance of wheat farmers in Illinois and Kansas is about equal to the market if 24- or 20-month market benchmarks are used, is slightly above the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Benchmarks; Illinois; Kansas; Marketing; Performance; Price; Wheat; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37622

Portfolios of Agricultural Market Advisory Services: How Much Diversification is Enough?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cabrini,   Silvina M.; Stark,   Brian G.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.; Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes.
This study analyzes the potential risk-reduction gains from naïve diversification among market advisory services for corn and soybeans.  The total possible decrease in risk through naïve diversification is small, mainly because advisory prices are highly correlated on average.  Moreover, because marginal risk-reduction benefits decrease rapidly with size and the cost of holding the portfolios increases linearly due to services’ subscription fees, it is optimal to limit portfolio size to a few advisory programs.  Based on certainty equivalent measures and two representative risk-aversion levels, preferred portfolio sizes are between one and three programs.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Corn; Diversification; Market advisory service; Portfolio; Soybeans; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Marketing; G11; Q10; Q12; Q14.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43717

ILLINOIS PRODUCE GROWERS STUDY - VIABILITY OF SOUTH WATER MARKET IN CHICAGO AS AN OUTLET FOR MARKETING PRODUCE AND ANALYSIS OF NET RETURNS RECEIVED THROUGH ALTERNATE MARKETING CHANNELS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mandal,   Sanjay; Thompson,   Sarahelen R.; Good,   Darrel L.
Most Illinois produce growers do not participate in the wholesale marketing system. Instead, most concentrate their efforts in direct marketing of their produce via pick-your-own operations, roadside stands, farmers' markets, and contracting with food processing firms. Currently only 2-3 percent of the produce arriving in Chicago is of Illinois origin. The wholesale market for produce in Chicago has traditionally been organized around the South Water Market. The small involvement of Illinois producers in the South Water Market is of concern because 1) it may be indicative of problems in the wholesale marketing system used to bring produce to regional retail and hospitality markets, and 2) because it may imply that income generating opportunities for...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness.
Ano: 1993
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26587

1998 PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Good,   Darrel L.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Jackson,   Thomas E.; Jirik,   Mark A.; Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes.
The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance in 1998 for corn and soybeans. Specifically, the average price received by a subscriber to an advisory service is calculated for corn and soybean crops harvested in 1998. The average net advisory price across all 23 corn programs is $2.17 per bushel - seven cents below the market benchmark price. The net advisory prices for corn range from a minimum of $1.93 per bushel to a maximum of $2.51 per bushel. The average net advisory price across all 22 soybean programs is $5.82 per bushel - four cents less than the market benchmark. The net advisory prices for soybeans range from a minimum of $5.11 per bushel to a maximum of $6.58 per bushel.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14793

PUTTING THE RISK PROTECTION ACT OF 2000 TO WORK: APPLIED MARKETING STRATEGIES (PowerPoint Presentation)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.; Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes.
POWERPOINT PRESENTATION
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33092

The Impact of Situation and Outlook Information in Corn and Soybean Futures Markets: Evidence from WASDE Reports
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Isengildina-Massa,   Olga; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.; Gomez,   Jennifer K.
The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of situation and outlook information from World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) in corn and soybean futures markets over the period 1985 to 2006. Results indicate that WASDE reports containing National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) crop production estimates and other domestic and international situation and outlook information have the largest impact; causing return variance on report sessions to be 7.38 times greater than normal return variance in corn futures and 6.87 times greater than normal return variance in soybean futures. WASDE reports limited to international situation information and domestic and international outlook information have a smaller impact. The results show...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Corn; Market impact; Outlook; Situation; Soybeans; WASDE; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Financial Economics; Q100; Q110; Q130.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45048

Crop Farmers’ Use of Market Advisory Services
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Isengildina,   Olga; Pennings,   Joost M.E.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
This study sought to examine the nature of farmers’ use of market advisory services based on the results of a survey of US crop producers. The survey revealed that market advisory service users tend to be significantly more risk seeking than non-users. Survey results indicated a large range in patterns of use of advisory services. Most farmers use advisory services to the greatest extent for marketing information, market analysis, and to keep up with markets. General guidelines (market strategies and price information) are utilized more than specific advice (e.g., specific pricing decisions, price forecasts). Only 11% of farmers reported that they closely follow the marketing recommendations provided by advisory services. Nonetheless, farmers report that...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37489

Empirical Confidence Intervals for WASDE Forecasts of Corn, Soybean and Wheat Prices
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Isengildina,   Olga; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
This study suggests that confidence intervals for WASDE forecasts of corn, soybean, and wheat prices may be improved if they are estimated using an empirical approach.  Empirical confidence intervals are calculated following Williams and Goodman's (1971) method and use historical forecast errors to estimate forecast error distributions which is then used to predict confidence limits for future forecast errors.  Three procedures for empirical distribution estimation are compared: 1) histogram, 2) changing distribution, 3) fixed distribution.  The results suggest that the fixed distribution approach using logistic distribution provided accurate confidence intervals for WASDE corn, soybean, and wheat price forecasts.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18995

Understanding USDA Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts: Methods, Performance and Market Impacts over 1970 - 2004
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Good,   Darrel L.; Irwin,   Scott H.
The purpose of this report is to improve understanding of USDA crop forecasting methods, performance and market impact.  A review of USDA's forecasting procedures and methodology confirmed the objectivity and consistency of the forecasting process over time.  No changes in methodology occurred in 2004.  Month-to-month changes in corn and soybean production forecasts from 1970 through 2004 indicated little difference in magnitude and direction of monthly changes over time.  USDA production forecast errors were largest in August and smaller in subsequent forecasts.  There appeared to be no trend in the size or direction of forecast errors over time.  On average, USDA corn production forecasts were more accurate than private market forecasts over 1970-2004,...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14785

The Performance of Chicago Board of Trade Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures Contracts after Recent Changes in Speculative Limits
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Irwin,   Scott H.; Garcia,   Philip; Good,   Darrel L.
Three attributes of futures contract behavior important for market performance—liquidity, volatility, and convergence—are investigated before and after the 2005 increase in speculative position limits for  corn, soybean, and wheat contracts at the Chicago Board of Trade.  The analysis of liquidity and market depth reveals a sharp increase in open interest for corn, soybeans and wheat beginning in late 2005.  The increase in position limits likely accommodated the increase in speculative interest in corn, soybean and wheat futures, but some of the increase would have occurred without the increase as new market participants received hedge exemptions.  The analysis of price volatility revealed no large change in measures of volatility after the change in...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Corn; Futures contract; Performance; Soybeans; Speculation; Wheat; Marketing.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9951

THE ROLE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES IN CROP MARKETING AND RISK MANAGEMENT: A PRELIMINARY REPORT OF SURVEY RESULTS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pennings,   Joost M.E.; Good,   Darrel L.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Gomez,   Jennifer K.
The purpose of this report is to provide a preliminary summary of the results of a survey designed to help answer the questions about subscriber use of market advisory services.  Importantly, this research is a cooperative partnership between the University of Illinois and the Data Transmission Network. The survey participants are commercial producers of major grain, oilseed and fiber crops, representing important agricultural areas of the US.  The survey has three broad objectives, including 1) how US producers perceive the riskiness of various aspects of farming; 2) how US producers manage farm business risk, and 3) how US producers select and use market advisory services.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14772

Efficient Portfolios of Market Advisory Services: An Application of Shrinkage Estimators
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cabrini,   Silvina M.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
A Bayesian hierarchical model was employed to estimate individual expected pricing performance for market advisory programs in corn and soybeans.  Performance is defined as the difference between the price/revenue obtained by following the program's marketing recommendations and the average price/revenue offered by the market along the marketing window.  The estimates obtained from this model are weighted averages of traditional separate and pooled estimates.  Based on the sample employed, the most reasonable individual estimates for expected pricing performance imply a substantial shrinkage towards pooled values.  The Bayesian estimates for expected pricing performance range from ¢9/bu to ¢9/bu for corn, from ¢11/bu to ¢17/bu for soybeans and $0.4/acre to...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19469

DEVELOPMENT OF A MARKET BENCHMARK PRICE FOR AGMAS PERFORMANCE EVALUATIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Good,   Darrel L.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Jackson,   Thomas E.
The purpose of this research report is to identify the appropriate market benchmark price to use to evaluate the pricing performance of market advisory services that are included in the annual AgMAS pricing performance evaluations. Five desirable properties of market benchmark prices are identified. Three potential specifications of the market benchmark price are considered: the average price received by Illinois farmers, the harvest cash price, and the average cash price over a two-year crop marketing window. The average cash price meets all of the desired properties, except that it would not be easily implementable by producers. It can be shown, though, that the price realized via a more manageable strategy of "spreading" sales during the marketing...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Advisory services; Evaluating the pricing performance; Market benchmark price; C8; C0; D4; D8; L1; M3; Q0; Z0; Marketing.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14783

The Marketing Performance of Illinois and Kansas Wheat Farmers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dietz,   Sarah N.; Aulerich,   Nicole M.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the marketing performance of wheat farmers in Illinois and Kansas over 1982–2004. The results show that farmer benchmark prices for wheat in Illinois and Kansas fall in the middle third of the price range about half to three-quarters of the time. Consistent with previous studies, this refutes the contention that Illinois and Kansas wheat farmers routinely market the bulk of their wheat crop in the bottom portion of the price range. Tests of the average difference between farmer and market benchmark prices are sensitive to the market benchmark considered. The marketing performance of wheat farmers in Illinois and Kansas is about equal to the market if a 24- or 20-month market benchmark is used, slightly above the...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Benchmarks; Illinois; Kansas; Marketing; Performance; Price; Wheat; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Marketing; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Q11; Q13.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48762

Market Instability in a New Era of Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Prices
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Grain; Price; Increase; Trend; Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing; Q11; Q13.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94694

THE IMPACT OF MARKETING ADVISORY SERVICE RECOMMENDATIONS ON PRODUCERS' MARKETING DECISIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pennings,   Joost M.E.; Isengildina,   Olga; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
To date, there is only fragmented and anecdotal information about the impact of the recommendations of market advisory services (MAS) on producers'’ decision-making. A conceptual framework is developed in which, among others, producers’' risk attitudes and risk perceptions; producers’' perceptions about MAS performance and delivery; and match between the MAS and the producer’s' marketing philosophy are hypothesized to influence the impact of MAS on producers’' marketing decisions. Data from 656 U.S. producers were used and the impact of MAS on producers'’ marketing decisions was tested using an ordered probit model. The empirical results reveal that not only the perceived MAS performance, but also the way in which MAS recommendations are delivered, and the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20389

AN EVALUATION OF CROP FORECAST ACCURACY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS:  USDA AND PRIVATE INFORMATION SERVICES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Egelkraut,   Thorsten M.; Garcia,   Philip; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
Using 1971-2000 data, we examine the accuracy of corn and soybean production forecasts provided by the USDA and two private services. All agencies improved their forecasts as the harvest progressed, and forecast errors across the agencies were highly correlated. Relative accuracy varied by crop and month. In corn, USDA 's forecasts ranked as most accurate in all periods except in August during recent times, and improved more markedly as harvest progressed. In soybeans, forecast errors were very similar with the private agencies ranking as most accurate in August and September and making largest relative improvements in August during recent times. The USDA provided the most accurate October and November forecasts.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19068

DO AGRICULTURAL MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES BEAT THE MARKET? EVIDENCE FROM THE CORN AND SOYBEAN MARKETS OVER 1995-1997
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Irwin,   Scott H.; Jackson,   Thomas E.; Good,   Darrel L.
The purpose of this paper is to address two basic performance questions for market advisory services: 1) Do market advisory services, on average, outperform an appropriate market benchmark? and 2) Do market advisory services exhibit persistence in their performance from year-to-year?  Data on corn and soybean net price received for advisory services, as reported by the AgMAS Project, are available for the 1995, 1996 and 1997 marketing years.  Performance test results suggest that, on average, market advisory services exhibit a small ability to "beat the market" for the 1995 through 1997 corn and soybean crops.  This conclusion is somewhat sensitive to the type of performance test and market benchmark considered.  The predictability results provide little...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14789

PORTFOLIOS OF AGRICULTURAL MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES: HOW MUCH DIVERSIFICATION IS ENOUGH?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cabrini,   Silvina M.; Stark,   Brian G.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.; Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes.
This study analyzes the potential risk reduction gains from naive diversification (equal-weighting) among market advisory services for corn and soybeans.  The total possible decrease in risk through naive diversification is small, mainly because advisory prices are highly correlated on average.  Moreover, since marginal risk reduction benefits decrease rapidly with size, and the cost of holding the portfolios increases linearly due to services' subscription fees, it is optimal to limit portfolio size to a few advisory programs.  Based on certainty equivalent measures and two representative risk aversion levels, preferred portfolio sizes are between one and three services. Overall, there does not appear to be strong justification for farmers adopting...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19013

TRACKING THE PERFORMANCE OF MARKETING PROFESSIONALS: 1995-2000 RESULTS FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Irwin,   Scott H.; Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes; Good,   Darrel L.
The purpose of this research bulletin is to summarize the pricing performance of professional market advisory services for the 1995-2000 corn and soybean crops. The pricing performance results over 1995-2000 suggest several key findings. First, advisory programs in corn do not consistently beat market benchmarks, but they do consistently beat the farmer benchmark. Second, advisory programs in soybeans tend to beat both market and farmer benchmarks. Third, in terms of 50/50 revenue, advisory programs only marginally beat market benchmarks, but consistently beat the farmer benchmark. Overall, there is mixed evidence that advisory programs as a group outperform market benchmarks, while substantial evidence exists that advisory programs as a group outperform...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14794

EVALUATION OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICE PERFORMANCE IN HOGS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Webber,   Rick L.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.; Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes.
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the pricing performance of agricultural market advisory services in hogs. Pricing recommendations are available for all quarters from the beginning of 1995 through the end of 2001. The results show that average differences between advisory programs and market benchmarks are small in nominal terms for all three benchmarks, -$0.41/bu., $O.OO/cwt. and $-0.27/cwt. versus the cash, index and empirical benchmarks, respectively, and none of the average differences are significantly different from zero. Hence, advisory programs as a group do not outperform the market benchmarks in terms of average price. Advisory programs also do not outperform the market benchmarks in terms of average price and risk. Finally, there is...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18980

1997 PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jackson,   Thomas E.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance in 1997 for corn and soybeans. Specifically, the average price received by a subscriber to an advisory service is calculated for corn and soybean crops harvested in 1997. The average net advisory price across all 23 corn programs is $2.32 per bushel. The net advisory prices for corn range from a minimum of $2.00 per bushel to a maximum of $2.74 per bushel. The average net advisory price across all 21 soybean programs is $6.40 per bushel. The net advisory prices for soybeans range from a minimum of $6.08 per bushel to a maximum of $6.99 per bushel.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Evaluation of advisory services; Pricing performance; Soybeans; C8; D4; D8; L1; M3; Q0; Z0; Marketing.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14780

SURVEYING FARMERS: A RESEARCH NOTE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pennings,   Joost M.E.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
Mail surveys are a very popular instrument for researchers as well as government agencies and commercial firms to obtain information about farmers.  A large percentage of farmers do not respond to these mail surveys.  To gain insight into why farmers do not respond and their preferences regarding mail surveys, farmers who did not respond to a mail survey were interviewed.  From our field study it appears that a large proportion does not even read the questionnaire.  Furthermore, the period in which the survey is sent along with the form and amount of compensation, the sender of the questionnaire, and the length of the questionnaire has a crucial impact on the willingness to participate.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14781

Complex Choices: Producers Risk Management Strategies
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pennings,   Joost M.E.; Isengildina,   Olga; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.; Garcia,   Philip; Frank,   Julieta; Kuiper,   W. Erno.
Producers have a wide variety of risk management instruments available. How do producers make a choice of risk management instruments? Using the recently developed choice bracketing framework, we examine what risk management strategies producers use and identify the factors that drive their risk management decisions. Our results identify that producers use a wide variety of combinations of risk management instruments and that they bracket their choices into sets of alternative risk management instruments. Using multinomial logit models to estimate the choice process provides information about the factors that influence producers' decision making. The results show that broad bracketing producers use different risk management instruments than narrow...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19550

Wheat Forward Contract Pricing: Evidence on Forecast Power and Risk Premia
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Shi,   Wei; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.; Dietz,   Sarah N.
While the risk premium hypothesis in futures markets has been the subject of a long and continuous controversy, the risk premium hypothesis in forward markets is also of interest among economists. The hypothesis is supported by some theoretical arguments and empirical evidence yet remains an open question. We in this study apply a two-equation regression model similar to those used in (Fama and French (1987} and de Roon et al. (1998) to analyze the risk premiums in forward markets, particularly, using the pre-harvest wheat forward markets in Illinois (1982-2004) and Kansas (1990-2004) as an example. The two-equation regression model consists of a forecasting equation, which uses a forward basis during a pre-harvest period to forecast the spot basis at the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19043

Quantile Regression Estimates of Confidence Intervals for WASDE Price Forecasts
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Isengildina-Massa,   Olga; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
This study uses quantile regressions to estimate historical forecast error distributions for WASDE forecasts of corn, soybean, and wheat prices, and then compute confidence limits for the forecasts based on the empirical distributions. Quantile regressions with fit errors expressed as a function of forecast lead time are consistent with theoretical forecast variance expressions while avoiding assumptions of normality and optimality. Based on out-of-sample accuracy tests over 1995/96–2006/07, quantile regression methods produced intervals consistent with the target confidence level. Overall, this study demonstrates that empirical approaches may be used to construct accurate confidence intervals for WASDE corn, soybean, and wheat price forecasts.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Commodity; Evaluating forecasts; Government forecasting; Judgmental forecasting; Prediction intervals; Price forecasting; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99120

1996 PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jackson,   Thomas E.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance in 1996 for corn and soybeans. Specifically, the average price received by a subscriber to an advisory service is calculated for corn and soybean crops harvested in 1996. The average net advisory price across all 26 corn programs is $2.63 per bushel. The range of net advisory prices for corn is quite large, with a minimum of $2.08 per bushel and a maximum of $3.12 per bushel. The average net advisory price across all 24 soybean programs is $7.27 per bushel. As with corn, the range of net advisory prices for soybeans is substantial, with a minimum of $6.80 per bushel and a maximum of $7.80 per bushel.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Market Advisory Services; G1; D8; D7; D4; G2; H4; H8; Q1; Z1; Marketing.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14787

Advisory Service Marketing Profiles for Corn in 2001
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Colino,   Evelyn V.; Cabrini,   Silvina M.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.; Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37493

ADVISORY SERVICE MARKETING PROFILES FOR CORN OVER 1995-2000
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.; Cabrini,   Silvina M.; Stark,   Brian G.; Shi,   Wei; Webber,   Rick L.; Hagedorn,   Lewis A.; Williams,   Steven L.
This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 1995 through 2000 corn crops. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program's set of recommendations throughout a crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during the crop year.   Marketing profiles provide information to evaluate the style of advisory services in several ways.  The percentage of crop priced is a measure of within-crop year price risk.  The higher the proportion of a crop priced, the lower the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14776

Style and Performance of Agricultural Market Advisory Services
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cabrini,   Silvina M.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
This paper describes the degree of marketing activeness of market advisory programs for corn and soybeans, and analyzes the relationship between activeness degree and pricing performance. The data set employed consists of advisory programs tracked by the AgMAS Project at the University of Illinois between 1995 and 2001. Cluster analysis was conducted to group the programs according to their degree of activeness. Panel data regression models were estimated to evaluate the relationship between activeness degree and pricing performance. In the corn market, point estimates indicate a positive effect of the degree of activeness on pricing performance, but this effect is of small magnitude and statistically insignificant. For soybeans,there is a stronger...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Marketing.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19037

The Value of USDA Situation and Outlook Information in Hog and Cattle Markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Isengildina,   Olga; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
The economic value of public situation and outlook information has long been a subject of debate. The purpose of this study is to investigate the economic value of USDA reports in hog and cattle markets. The investigation is based on event study analysis, with the "events" consisting of the release of six major USDA situation and outlook reports for hogs and cattle from 1985 through 2003. These include Cattle, Cattle on Feed, Cold Storage, Hogs and Pigs, Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook (LDPO), and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports. As a result of the process of modeling volatility of hog and cattle prices, a TARCH-in-mean model was specified that closely followed the distribution of these price movements. The effects of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19050

The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans Over 1995-2003: A Non-Technical Summary
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.; Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes; Hagedorn,   Lewis A.
The purpose of this research report is to summarize the pricing performance of professional market advisory services for the 1995-2003 corn and soybean crops. First, advisory programs in corn do not consistently beat market benchmarks, but tend to consistently beat the farmer benchmark. Second, advisory programs in soybeans exhibit just the opposite pattern, consistently beating the market benchmarks but not the farmer benchmark. Third, in terms of 50/50 revenue, advisory programs show marginal consistency in beating both the market benchmarks and the farmer benchmark. So, the results provide mixed performance evidence with respect to both the market benchmarks and the farmer benchmark.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37486

THE COST OF FORWARD CONTRACTING
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Shi,   Wei; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.; Hagedorn,   Lewis A.
The cost of forward contracting corn is estimated with weekly pre-harvest forward bases for seven regions of Illinois from 1975 to 2002. Given the panel structure of the forward basis dataset, we extend Townsend and Brorsen’'s univariate unit root model for forward bases to a panel unit root model. With the time series of forward bases modeled as unit root processes, the cost of forward contracting is estimated. The empirical results from the estimation show that the cost of forward contracting corn is about 1¢/bushel, one hundred days before the harvest, for all regions in Illinois as a whole. The results also indicates that the cost could vary across regions and that the cost of forward contracting could be substantially higher than that of futures...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20409

The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans Over 1995-2004
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.; Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes; Batts,   Ryan M.
The purpose of this research report is to evaluate the pricing performance of market advisory services for the 1995-2004 corn and soybean crops. Marketing assumptions applied to advisory program track records are intended to accurately depict “real-world” marketing conditions facing a representative central Illinois corn and soybean farmer. Several key assumptions are: i) with a few exceptions, the marketing window for a crop year runs from September before harvest through August after harvest, ii) on-farm or commercial physical storage costs, as well as interest opportunity costs, are charged to post-harvest sales, iii) brokerage costs are subtracted for all futures and options transactions and iv) Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) marketing loan...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37513

THE MARKETING STYLE OF ADVISORY SERVICES FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN 1995
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bertoli,   Roberto; Zuluaf,   Carl R.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Jackson,   Thomas E.; Good,   Darrel L.
The 1995 marketing styles for the 25 market advisory service programs included in the AgMAS Project were developed in two steps. The first step was the construction of a detailed "menu" of the tools and strategies used by each of the advisory programs in marketing corn and soybeans. The menu describes the type of pricing tool, frequency of transactions, and magnitude of transactions. The second step was the development of a daily index of the net amount sold by each market advisory program. To construct such an index, the various futures, options, and cash positions recommended for a program on a given day were weighted by the respective position "delta." When the daily values of the index were plotted for the entire marketing period, the marketing...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Advisory services; Pricing tools; Pricing strategies; Assessment of recommendations; D4; C8; D8; M3; Q0; Marketing.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14792

THE VALUE OF USDA OUTLOOK INFORMATION: AN INVESTIGATION USING EVENT STUDY ANALYSIS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.; Gomez,   Jennifer K.
The economic value of public situation and outlook information has long been a subject of debate. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the economic value of USDA WASDE reports in corn and soybean markets. The investigation is based on event study analysis, with the "events" consisting of the release of all monthly USDA WASDE reports for corn and soybeans from 1985 through 1998. The WASDE reports during the sample period are divided into two groups: one that represents "pure" outlook information and one that represents a "mix" of situation and outlook information. The statistical tests can be placed into two categories: mean price reaction and volatility reaction. Overall, the results suggest that USDA outlook information has a significant impact in...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18948

HOW TO GROUP MARKET PARTICIPANTS? HETEROGENEITY IN HEDGING BEHAVIOR
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pennings,   Joost M.E.; Garcia,   Philip; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
Using a generalized mixture model, we model individual heterogeneity by identifying groups of participants that respond in a similar manner to the determinants of economic behavior. The procedure emphasizes the role of theory as the determinants of behavior are used to simultaneously explain market activities and to discriminate among groups of market participants. We show the appealing properties of this modeling approach by comparing it with two often used grouping methods in an empirical study in which we estimate the factors affecting market participants' hedging behavior.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Institutional and Behavioral Economics.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21963

An Evaluation of Crop Forecast Accuracy for Corn and Soybeans:  USDA and Private Information Agencies
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Egelkraut,   Thorsten M.; Garcia,   Philip; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
Using 1971-2000 data, we examine the accuracy of corn and soybean production forecasts provided by the USDA and two private agencies.  All agencies improved their forecasts as the harvest progressed, and forecast errors were highly correlated and unbiased.  The relative forecast accuracy of the agencies varied by crop and month.  For corn, USDA’s forecasts ranked as most accurate of the three agencies in all periods except for august during the recent period and improved most markedly as harvest progressed.  For soybeans, forecast errors were very similar, with the private agencies ranking as most accurate for August and September and making largest relative improvements for August during the recent period.  The USDA forecasts were dominant for October and...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Corn; Private agencies; Production forecasts; Soybeans; USDA; Q11; Q13; C82; Q18.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37835

New Generation Grain Marketing Contracts
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hagedorn,   Lewis A.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes; Good,   Darrel L.; Sherrick,   Bruce J.; Schnitkey,   Gary D.
The purpose of this research report is to summarize the features of several types of "new generation" grain marketing contracts.  Over the last several years, new types of grain marketing contracts have been developed by the grain industry in an attempt to improve the results of the marketing process for farmers.  These products use automated pricing rules, discretionary marketing on the part of a professional advisor, options strategies, or some combination of all three; their goal is to achieve a price for the farmer near or above the "average" price offered by the market over a given time.  Reports in the farm media suggest interest in new generation contracts has increased rapidly in recent years.  This publication describes some of the contracts...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14782

2007 U.S CORN PRODUCTION RISKS: WHAT DOES HISTORY TEACH US?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Good,   Darrel L.; Irwin,   Scott H.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Financial Economics; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37494

THE PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES IN CORN AND SOYBEANS OVER 1995-2001: A NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Irwin,   Scott H.; Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes; Good,   Darrel L.
The purpose of this research report is to summarize the pricing performance of professional market advisory services for the 1995-2001 corn and soybean crops.  First, advisory programs in corn do not consistently beat market benchmarks, but they do consistently beat the farmer benchmark.  Second, advisory programs in soybeans tend to beat both market and farmer benchmarks.  Third, in terms of 50/50 revenue, advisory programs only marginally beat market benchmarks, but consistently beat the farmer benchmark.  So, the results provide mixed performance evidence with respect to market benchmarks and consistently positive evidence with respect to the farmer benchmark.  Caution should be used when considering the results, due to the relatively small sample of...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14770

The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans Over 1995-2001
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Irwin,   Scott H.; Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes; Good,   Darrel L.
The purpose of this research report is to evaluate the pricing performance of market advisory services for the 1995-2001 corn and soybean crops. The results for 1995-2000 were released in earlier AgMAS research reports, while results for the 2001 crop year are new. Certain explicit assumptions are made to produce a consistent and comparable set of results across the different advisory programs. These assumptions are intended to accurately depict “real-world” marketing conditions facing a representative central Illinois corn and soybean farmer. Several key assumptions are: i) with a few exceptions, the marketing window for a crop year runs from September before harvest through August after harvest, ii) on-farm or commercial physical storage costs, as well...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37510

ADVISORY SERVICE MARKETING PROFILES FOR SOYBEANS OVER 1995-2000
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.; Cabrini,   Silvina M.; Stark,   Brian G.; Shi,   Wei; Webber,   Rick L.; Hagedorn,   Lewis A.; Williams,   Steven L.
This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 1995 through 2000 soybean crops. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program's set of recommendations throughout a crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during the crop year.   Marketing profiles provide information to evaluate the style of advisory services in several ways.  The percentage of crop priced is a measure of within-crop year price risk.  The higher the proportion of a crop priced, the lower the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14791

1995 PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jackson,   Thomas E.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance in 1995 for corn and soybeans. Specifically, the average price received by a subscriber to an advisory service is calculated for corn and soybean crops harvested in 1995. The average net advisory price across all 25 corn programs is $3.04 per bushel. The range of net advisory prices for corn is quite large, with a minimum of $2.34 per bushel and a maximum of $3.81 per bushel.  The average net advisory price across all 25 soybean programs is $6.61 per bushel.  As with corn, the range of net advisory prices for soybeans is substantial, with a minimum of $5.75 per bushel and a maximum of $7.92 per bushel.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Market Advisory Service (AgMAS) Project; D4; D7; D8; G1; G2; H4; H8; Q1; Z1; Marketing.
Ano: 1997
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14790

1999 PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes; Good,   Darrel L.; Irwin,   Scott H.
The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance in the 1999 crop year for corn and soybeans. Specifically, the average price received by a subscriber to an advisory  service is calculated for corn and soybean crops harvested in 1999. The average net advisory price across all 26 corn programs in 1999 is $2.02 per bushel, three cents below the market benchmark price. The range of net advisory prices for corn is substantial, with a minimum of $1.66 per bushel and a maximum of $2.49 per bushel. The average net advisory price across all 25 soybean programs in 1999 is $5.67 per bushel, seventeen cents above the market benchmark. As with corn, the range of net advisory prices for soybeans is substantial,...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14779

Understanding USDA Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts: Methods, Performance and Market Impacts over 1970 - 2005
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Good,   Darrel L.; Irwin,   Scott H.
The purpose of this report is to improve understanding of USDA crop forecasting methods, performance and market impact. A review of USDA’s forecasting procedures and methodology confirmed the objectivity and consistency of the forecasting process over time. Month-to-month changes in corn and soybean production forecasts from 1970 through 2005 indicated little difference in magnitude and direction of monthly changes over time. USDA production forecast errors were largest in August and smaller in subsequent forecasts. There appeared to be no trend in the size or direction of forecast errors over time. On average, USDA corn production forecasts were more accurate than private market forecasts over 1970-2005, with the exception of August forecasts since the...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37514

Are Corn Trend Yields Increasing at a Faster Rate?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tannura,   Michael A.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Demand and Price Analysis; Financial Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37500

Advisory Service Marketing Profiles for Soybeans in 2001
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Colino,   Evelyn V.; Cabrini,   Silvina M.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.; Joao,   Martines-Filho.
This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 2001 soybean crop. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program’s set of recommendations throughout the crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during the crop year. Marketing profiles provide information to evaluate the style of advisory services in several ways. The percentage of crop priced is a measure of within-crop year price risk. The higher the proportion of a crop priced, the lower the sensitivity of the...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37507

ARE REVISIONS TO USDA CROP PRODUCTION FORECASTS SMOOTHED?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Isengildina,   Olga; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
This study investigates the nature of the revision process of USDA corn and soybean production forecasts over the 1970/71 through 2002/03 marketing years. Nordhaus' framework for testing the efficiency of fixed-event forecasts is used. In this framework, efficiency is based on independence of forecast revisions. Both parametric and non-parametric tests reject independence of consecutive forecast revisions. Positive correlation and consistency of directional changes in forecast revisions suggest that these forecasts are "smoothed." Estimates of the impact of smoothing on forecast accuracy show that correction for smoothing may result in economically meaningful improvements in accuracy.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19027

The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans over 1995-2003
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Good,   Darrel L.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes; Hagedorn,   Lewis A.
The purpose of this research report is to evaluate the pricing performance of market advisory services for the 1995-2003 corn and soybean crops. Four basic indicators of performance are applied to advisory program prices and revenues over 1995-2003.  Test results provide little evidence that advisory programs as a group outperform market benchmarks, particularly after considering risk.  The evidence is somewhat more positive with respect to the farmer benchmark, even after taking risk into account.  For example, the average advisory return relative to the farmer benchmark is $7 per acre with only a negligible increase in risk.  While this return is small it nonetheless represents a non-trivial increase in net farm income per acre for grain farms in...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14775

Advisory Service Marketing Profiles for Corn over 2002-2004
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Colino,   Evelyn V.; Cabrini,   Silvina M.; Aulerich,   Nicole M.; Brandenberger,   Tracy L.; Merrin,   Robert P.; Shi,   Wei; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.; Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes.
This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 2002, 2003 and 2004 corn crops. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program’s set of recommendations throughout the crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during the crop year.  Marketing profiles provide information to evaluate the style of advisory services in several ways. The percentage of crop priced is a measure of within-crop year price risk. The higher the proportion of a crop priced, the lower the...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37484

THE PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES IN CORN AND SOYBEANS OVER 1995-2001
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Irwin,   Scott H.; Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes; Good,   Darrel L.
The purpose of this research report is to evaluate the pricing performance of market advisory services for the 1995-2001 corn and soybean crops.  The results for 1995-2000 were released in earlier AgMAS research reports, while results for the 2001 crop year are new.  Certain explicit assumptions are made to produce a consistent and comparable set of results across the different advisory programs.  These assumptions are intended to accurately depict "real-world" marketing conditions facing a representative central Illinois corn and soybean farmer.  Several key assumptions are: i) with a few exceptions, the marketing window for a crop year runs from September before harvest through August after harvest, ii) on-farm or commercial physical storage costs, as...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14773

DOES THE MARKET ANTICIPATE SMOOTHING IN USDA CROP PRODUCTION FORECASTS?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Isengildina,   Olga; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
This study examines whether market participants anticipate the predictable component in USDA revisions of corn and soybean production forecasts during 1970/71 through 2003/04 marketing years.  The analysis revealed that markets consistently under-predicted October corn production revisions and over-predicted September soybean production revisions.  These biases may be attributable to inefficient use of information about smoothing in USDA revisions.  In all other cases market analysts seemed to be aware of USDA smoothing practices and generally efficiently incorporated this information into their own forecasts.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20145

So How Do I Make Corn and Soybean Pricing Decisions?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Good,   Darrel L.; Irwin,   Scott H.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis; Financial Economics.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37498

PORTFOLIOS OF AGRICULTURAL MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES: HOW MUCH DIVERSIFICATION IS ENOUGH?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Stark,   Brian G.; Cabrini,   Silvina M.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.; Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes.
Agricultural market advisory services offer specific advice to farmers on how to market their commodities.  Farmers can subscribe to one or more of these services and follow their advice as a way of managing price risk.  According to portfolio theory, a combination of these services may have risk/return benefits compared to individual services.  This report analyzes the potential risk reduction gains from naïve diversification among market advisory services for corn and soybeans.  Results show that increasing the number of (equal-weighting) services reduces portfolio expected risk, but the marginal decrease in risk from adding a new service decreases rapidly with portfolio size.  The risk reduction benefits of naïve diversification among advisory services...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14774

Do Big Crops Get Bigger and Small Crops Get Smaller? Further Evidence on Smoothing in USDA Crop Production Forecasts
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Isengildina-Massa,   Olga; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
The purpose of this paper is to determine whether smoothing in USDA corn and soybean production forecasts is concentrated in years with relatively small and large crops. The sample consists of all USDA corn and soybean production forecasts released over the 1970 through 2006 crop years. Results show that USDA crop production forecasts in both corn and soybeans have a marked tendency to decrease in small crop years and increase in big crop years. The magnitude of smoothing is surprisingly large, with corn and soybean production forecasts cumulatively revised downward by about 6 to 7 percent in small crop years and upward by about 5 to 6 percent in large crop years. Crop condition ratings are useful in predicting whether the current year is likely to be a...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Corn; Crop production; Forecasts; Smoothing; Soybeans; USDA.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37563

Recent Convergence Performance of CBOT Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures Contracts
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Irwin,   Scott H.; Garcia,   Philip; Good,   Darrel L.; Kunda,   Eugene L.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q11; Q13.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94645

Accuracy Trends and Sources of Forecast Errors in WASDE Balance Sheet Categories for Corn and Soybeans
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Botto,   Augusto C.; Isengildina,   Olga; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21332

Understanding USDA Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts: An Overview of Methods, Performance and Market Impacts
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Good,   Darrel L.; Irwin,   Scott H.
Updated: January 2004
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37496

DO AGRICULTURAL MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES BEAT THE MARKET? EVIDENCE FROM THE CORN AND SOYBEAN MARKETS OVER 1995-1998
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.; Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes; Jackson,   Thomas E.
The purpose of this paper is to address two basic performance questions for market advisory services: 1) Do market advisory services, on average, outperform an appropriate market benchmark? and 2) Do market advisory  services exhibit persistence in their performance from year-to-year? Data on corn and soybean net price received for advisory services, as reported by the AgMAS Project, are available for the 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998 crop years. Performance test results suggest that, on average, market advisory services exhibit a small ability to "beat the market" for the 1995 through 1998 corn and soybean crops. It is debatable whether the performance of advisory services also is economically significant. The predictability results provide little evidence...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14786

THE PERFORMANCE OF AGRICULTURAL MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES IN MARKETING WHEAT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jirik,   Mark A.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.; Jackson,   Thomas E.; Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes.
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of agricultural market advisory services in marketing wheat. Two key performance questions are addressed: 1) Do market advisory services, on average, outperform an appropriate wheat market benchmark? and 2) Do market advisory services exhibit persistence in their wheat performance from year-to-year?  Market advisory service recommendations for wheat are available from the AgMAS Project for the 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998 marketing years. At least 20 advisory programs are included for each year.  Tests of pricing performance relative to a market benchmark are based on the proportion of programs exceeding the benchmark price and the average percentage difference between the net price of advisory...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Wheat; Market advisory service; Benchmark; Market efficiency; Pricing performance; Predictability; Crop Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18928

The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans Over 1995-2004: A Non-Technical Summary
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.; Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes; Batts,   Ryan M.
The purpose of this research report is to summarize the pricing performance of professional market advisory services for the 1995-2004 corn and soybean crops. On average, the results show that the frequency of advisory programs pricing in the top-third of the corn price range over 1995-2004 is modest, between 17 and 25%. By far the largest average frequency occurs in the middle third of the corn price range, ranging from 58 to 63%. Price range results   for soybeans are similar to the results for corn. Average differences between 50/50 advisory revenue and benchmarks range from 5 to $7 per acre for market benchmarks and 8 to $12 per acre for farmer benchmarks. The average advisory return relative to the farmer benchmarks is about three percent of average...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37456

The Impact of Market Advisory Service Recommendations on Producers' Marketing Decisions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pennings,   Joost M.E.; Isengildina,   Olga; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
A conceptual framework is developed which provides insight into the factors affecting the impact of market advisory service (MAS) recommendations on producer pricing decisions. Data from a survey of 656 U.S. producers reveal that the perceived performance of the MAS, the way in which MAS recommendations are delivered, as well as the match between MAS and producers' marketing philosophy, are important factors explaining the impact of MAS recommendations. Risk attitude does not affect the impact of MAS recommendations on producers' decisions, suggesting producers are more interested in the price-enhancing characteristics of MAS advice than in its risk-reducing features. Key words: market advisory services, ordered probit model, producers' marketing decisions
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Market advisory services; Ordered probit model; Producers' marketing decisions; Marketing.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31104

Quantile Regression Methods of Estimating Confidence Intervals for WASDE Price Forecasts
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Isengildina-Massa,   Olga; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
This paper explores the use of quantile regression for estimation of empirical confidence limits for WASDE forecasts of corn, soybean, and wheat prices. Quantile regressions for corn, soybean, and wheat forecast errors over 1980/81 through 2006/07 were specified as a function of forecast lead time. Estimated coefficients were used to calculate forecast intervals for 2007/08. The quantile regression approach to calculating forecast intervals was evaluated based on out-of-sample performance. The accuracy of the empirical confidence intervals was not statistically different from the target level about 87% of the time prior to harvest and 91% of the time after harvest.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6409

USDA INTERVAL FORECASTS OF CORN AND SOYBEAN PRICES:  OVERCONFIDENCE OR RATIONAL INACCURACY?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Isengildina,   Olga; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
The USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) price forecasts are published in the form of an interval, but typically analyzed as point estimates.  Thus, all information about uncertainty imbedded in the forecast is ignored.  The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the accuracy of WASDE price forecasts using methodology suitable for testing judgmental interval forecasts.  Empirical analysis includes traditional statistical tests as well as an alternative behavioral evaluation (accuracy-informativeness tradeoff model).  The results of the traditional analysis indicate overconfidence of WASDE price interval forecasts, while the results of the behavioral approach suggest rational inaccuracy.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Interval forecasts; Overconfidence; Rational inaccuracy; Accuracy-informativeness tradeoff; WASDE; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18987

Advisory Service Marketing Profiles for Soybeans over 2002-2004
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Colino,   Evelyn V.; Cabrini,   Silvina M.; Aulerich,   Nicole M.; Brandenberger,   Tracy L.; Merrin,   Robert P.; Shi,   Wei; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.; Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes.
This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 2002, 2003 and 2004 soybean crops. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program’s set of recommendations throughout the crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during the crop year.  Marketing profiles provide information to evaluate the style of advisory services in several ways. The percentage of crop priced is a measure of within-crop year price risk. The higher the proportion of a crop priced, the lower the...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37485

THE 1995 THROUGH 1998 PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES FOR WHEAT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jirik,   Mark A.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.; Jackson,   Thomas E.; Jirik,   Mark A.; Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes.
The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance from 1995 through 1998 for wheat. The average net advisory price across all 24 wheat programs in 1995 is $3.79 per bushel, $0.18 above the market benchmark price.  The range in 1995 is $3.01 to $4.71 per bushel.  The average net advisory service price for 23 wheat programs in 1996 is $3.82 per bushel, $0.13 below the market benchmark.  The range in 1996 is $2.74 to $4.94 per bushel.  The average net advisory price for all 20 wheat programs in 1997 is $2.64 per bushel, $0.58 below the market benchmark.  The range in 1997 is $1.34 to $3.90 per bushel.  Finally, the average net advisory price across all 21 services in 1998 is $2.36 per bushel, $0.54 below...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14777

1999 PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVIVES FOR WHEAT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes; Good,   Darrel L.; Irwin,   Scott H.
The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance in the 1999 crop year for wheat.  Specifically, the average price received by a subscriber to an advisory service is calculated for wheat crop harvested in 1999.  The average net advisory price across all 23 wheat programs in 1999 is $2.64 per bushel, $0.04 below the market benchmark price.  The range of net advisory prices is substantial, with a minimum of $2.18 per bushel and a maximum of $3.38 per bushel.  The average revenue achieved by following an advisory service is $163 per acre, $3.00 less than the market benchmark revenue.  The spread in advisory revenue also is noteworthy, with the difference between the bottom- and top-performing advisory...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14788

The Value of USDA Situation and Outlook Information in Hog and Cattle Markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Good,   Darrel L.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Isengildina,   Olga.
This study investigates the impact of six major USDA reports in hog and cattle markets: Cattle; Cattle on Feed; Cold Storage; Hogs and Pigs; Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (LDPO); and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). A TARCH-in-mean model, with dummy variables to measure the impact of USDA reports and other external factors, is used to model close-to-open live-lean hog and live cattle futures returns from January 1985 through December 2004. The analysis revealed a statistically significant impact of all but Cattle and Cold Storage reports in live/lean hog futures, and all but Cold Storage reports in live cattle futures. Hogs and Pigs reports had the highest impact on live/lean hog returns by increasing conditional standard...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Cattle; Event study; Hogs; Livestock; Public information; TARCH model; USDA reports; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8614

THE MARKETING PERFORMANCE OF ILLINOIS CORN AND SOYBEAN PRODUCERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hagedorn,   Lewis A.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
Marketing is viewed as an important component of the farm management process, and poor marketing is often cited as a cause of low farm incomes. However, widespread beliefs about poor performance are not based upon a large body of research, and available evidence is too limited to make definitive conclusions about farmer marketing abilities. This paper examines the actual marketing performance of corn and soybean producers in Illinois. Farmer marketing data is based on the USDA's "Average Producer Price Received" over the period 1975-2002. Marketing performance is assessed using 20- and 24-month average price market benchmarks. A comparison of farmer prices received to the price range for each crop year reveals that in the majority of years producers market...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19029

Modeling Farmers' Use of Market Advisory Services
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pennings,   Joost M.E.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
In an effort to improve marketing of their products, many farmers use market advisory services (MAS). To date, there is only fragmented anecdotal information about how farmers actually use the recommendations of market advisory services in their marketing plans, and how they choose among these services. Based on the literature on consulting services usage, a conceptual framework is developed in which perceived performance of the MAS regarding realized crop price and risk reduction, and the match between the MAS and the farmer's marketing philosophy drive MAS usage. To account for possible heterogeneity among farmers regarding to the use of MAS, we introduce a mixture-modeling framework that is able to identify unobserved heterogeneity. With this modeling...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18950

DO AGRICULTURAL MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES BEAT THE MARKET? EVIDENCE FROM THE WHEAT MARKET OVER 1995-1998
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jirik,   Mark A.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.; Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes; Jackson,   Thomas E.
The purpose of this report is to address two basic performance questions for market advisory services in wheat: 1) Do market advisory services, on average, outperform an appropriate market benchmark? and 2) Do market advisory services exhibit persistence in their performance from year-to-year?  Data on wheat net price received for advisory services, as reported by the AgMAS Project, are available for the 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998 crop years.  Not only do market advisory programs in wheat consistently fail to "beat the market," their performance is significantly worse than the market.  On average, market advisory service performance is about $14 per acre below benchmark revenue, an economically non-trivial amount by any reasonable standard. The...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14778