Consulta: creatorFacets:"Lien,   Gudbrand D."
Registros recuperados: 26
Data/hora: 10/06/2024 12:18:37

Comparison of Risk in Organic, Integrated and Conventional Cropping Systems in Eastern Norway
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lien,   Gudbrand D.; Flaten,   Ola; Korsaeth,   Audun; Schumann,   Keith D.; Richardson,   James W.; Eltun,   Ragnar.
This study exemplifies the first implementation experiences of Balanced Scorecard and the first results of them in Ukrainian agricultural enterprises. Essential prerequisites for the functioning of the BSC concept into practical agriculture will be discussed. Finally, some critical success factors to the BSC adoption by agricultural companies will be identified.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Balanced Scorecard; Strategic Management; Ukraine; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24251

Technical efficiency in competing panel data models: A study of Norwegian grain farming
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kumbhakar,   Subal C.; Lien,   Gudbrand D.; Hardaker,   J. Brian.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114673

Organic Dairy Farming in Norway Under the 100% Organically Produced Feed Requirement
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Flaten,   Ola; Lien,   Gudbrand D.
The EU regulation governing organic production will require 100% organic feed in organic dairy systems from August 2005 compared with 85% currently in Norway. This study aimed to assess adjustments in resource use and financial impacts on organic dairy herds using a discrete stochastic programming model. Farm management effects of the regulatory change varied between farm types. For the two organic dairy systems examined, both having a milk quota of 100 000 litres but with varying farmland availability, the introduction of the 100% organic feed regulation resulted in an economic loss of approximately 6-8% of the net income compared to the current regime. The economic loss was mainly due to the considerable higher price of organic compared to conventional...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Feed regulation; Organic farming; Milk production; Stochastic programming; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24245

OPTIMAL ECONOMIC LENGTH OF LEYS: A DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING APPROACH
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hegrenes,   Agnar; Kristensen,   Anders Ringgaard; Lien,   Gudbrand D.
A model is presented to investigate the optimal economic life cycle of grass leys with winter damage problems in northern Norway and to determine the threshold of winter damage before it is profitable to re-seed. A two-level hierarchic Markov process has been constructed using the MLHMP software. The model takes uncertainty concerning yield potential, damage estimation and weather dependent random fluctuations into account. A Kalman filter technique is used for updating of knowledge on yield potential and damage level.  The application of the model is demonstrated using data from two commercial Norwegian farms. Since parameter estimates vary considerably among farms, it is concluded that decision support concerning optimal economic life cycle of grass leys...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25848

Risk in Public Policy Making: A Neglected Issue in Australia
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hardaker,   J. Brian; Fleming,   Euan M.; Lien,   Gudbrand D.
We argue for greater recognition of the risky nature of most policy decisions. In this context we discuss the gulf between public risk perceptions and attitudes and those of 'experts'. Public views of risk are often inconsistent and seemingly irrational. They nevertheless influence policy choices in a democracy. On the other hand, experts often claim unjustifiable levels of confidence in their predictions of policy choice outcomes, creating a lack of public faith in their recommendations. While risky policy choices deserve more systematic decision analysis, there is a need for more effective interaction between policy makers, decision analysts and the public.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Policy-making; Risk; Uncertainty; Decision Analysis; Perceptions; Subjectivity; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Political Economy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/5997

STOCHASTIC EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS USING MULTIPLE UTILITY FUNCTIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Schumann,   Keith D.; Richardson,   James W.; Lien,   Gudbrand D.; Hardaker,   J. Brian.
Evaluating the risk of a particular decision depends on the risk aversion of the decision maker related to the underlying utility function.  The objective of this paper is to use stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) to compare the ranking of risky alternatives using alternative utility functional forms.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19957

Stochastic efficiency analysis with risk aversion bounds: a simplified approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hardaker,   J. Brian; Richardson,   James W.; Lien,   Gudbrand D.; Schumann,   Keith D.
A method of stochastic dominance analysis with respect to a function (SDRF) is described and illustrated. The method, called stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF), orders a set of risky alternatives in terms of certainty equivalents for a specified range of attitudes to risk. It can be applied for conforming utility functions with risk attitudes defined by corresponding ranges of absolute, relative or partial risk aversion coefficients. Unlike conventional SDRF, SERF involves comparing each alternative with all the other alternatives simultaneously, not pairwise, and hence can produce a smaller efficient set than that found by simple pairwise SDRF over the same range of risk attitudes. Moreover, the method can be implemented in a simple...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117962

Econometric Analysis of the Effects of Subsidies on Farm Production in Case of Endogenous Input Quantities
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Henningsen,   Arne; Kumbhakar,   Subal C.; Lien,   Gudbrand D.
The effect of subsidies on farm production has been a major topic in agricultural economics for several decades. We present a new approach for analyzing the effects of different types of coupled and decoupled subsidies on farm production with econometric methods. In contrast to most previous studies, our approach is entirely based on a theoretical microeconomic model, explicitly allows subsidies to have an impact on input use, and takes linkages between the farm and the farm household into account.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Productivity Analysis.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114548

Production risk in multi-output industries: estimates from Norwegian dairy farms
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tveteras,   Ragnar; Flaten,   Ola; Lien,   Gudbrand D.
Farmers who produce multiple outputs are portfolio managers in the sense that they use inputs to balance expected economic return and variance of return. This paper estimates the structure of the stochastic multi-output production technology in Norwegian dairy farming, allowing for a more flexible specification of the technology than previous studies. We find that an increase in input levels leads primarily to higher output variability, and that inputs also influence the covariance of shocks between outputs. Risk-reducing effects of inputs on outputs are primarily present in the covariance functions. Technical change leads to shifts in the profit distribution over the data period, but no welfare improvement for risk-averse farmers.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Multi-output technologies; Production risk; Dairy farming; Agribusiness; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43958

Term Structure of Volatility and Price Jumps in Agricultural Markets - Evidence from Option Data
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Koekebakker,   Steen; Lien,   Gudbrand D.
Empirical evidence suggests that agricultural futures price movements have fat-tailed distributions and exhibit sudden and unexpected price jumps. There is also evidence that the volatility of futures prices contains a term structure depending on both calendar-time and time to maturity. This paper extends Bates (1991) jump-diffusion option pricing model by including both seasonal and maturity effects in volatility. An in-sample fit to market option prices on wheat futures shows that our model outperforms previous models considered in the literature. A numerical example illustrates the economic significance of our results for option valuation.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Option pricing; Futures; Term structure of volatility; Jump-diffusion; Agricultural markets; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24874

Assisting Whole-Farm Decision-Making Through Stochastic Budgeting
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lien,   Gudbrand D.
Stochastic budgeting is used to simulate the business and financial risk and the performance over a six-year planning horizon on a Norwegian dairy farm. A major difficulty with stochastic whole-farm budgeting lies in identifying and measuring dependency relationships between stochastic variables. Some methods to account for these stochastic dependencies are illustrated. The financial feasibility of different investment and management strategies is evaluated. In contrast with earlier studies with stochastic farm budgeting, the option aspect is included in the analysis.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Decision analysis; Whole-farm stochastic budgeting; Monte Carlo simulation; Real option; Farm Management.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24903

What Next in Decision Analysis for Agricultural and Resource Economics?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hardaker,   J. Brian; Lien,   Gudbrand D.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48160

DETERMINANTS OF PART-TIME FARMING AND ITS EFFECT ON FARM PRODUCTIVITY AND EFFICIENCY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lien,   Gudbrand D.; Kumbhakar,   Subal C.; Hardaker,   J. Brian.
Little attention has been given in the agricultural economics literature to the impact of off-farm work on farm productivity and efficiency. More knowledge about what determines part-time farming and whether farm productivity and efficiency are affected by part-time farming could help policy makers introduce better targeted rural development policies. This paper aims to fill the above-mentioned gaps by first analysing factors that influence the choice of off-farm work; and then examining how off-farm work influences productivity and technical efficiency at the farm level. An unbalanced panel data set from 1991 to 2005 from Norwegian grain farms is used for this purpose. The results show that the likelihood of off-farm work and the share of time allocated...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Off-farm work; Productivity; Efficiency; Unobserved heterogeneity; Panel data; Farm Management.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6701

Econometric Analysis of the Effects of Subsidies on Farm Production in Case of Endogenous Input Quantities
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Henningsen,   Arne; Kumbhakar,   Subal C.; Lien,   Gudbrand D.
Replaced with revised version of paper 07/29/09.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Panel data; Subsidies; Household model; Endogeneity; Norwegian grain farming; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Production Economics.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49728

Comparison of Risk Between Cropping Systems in Eastern Norway
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lien,   Gudbrand D.; Flaten,   Ola; Schumann,   Keith D.; Richardson,   James W.; Korsaeth,   Audun; Eltun,   Ragnar.
The aim of this study was to compare production and policy risk of organic, integrated and conventional cropping systems in Norway. Experimental cropping system data (1991-1999) from eastern Norway were combined with budgeted data. Empirical distributions of total farm income for different cropping systems were estimated with a simulation model that uses a multivariate kernel density function to smooth the limited experimental data. Stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) was used to rank the cropping systems for farmers with various risk aversion levels. The results show that the organic system had the greatest net farm income variability, but the existing payment system and organic price premiums makes it the most economically viable...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Organic; Integrated and conventional crop farming; Stochastic simulation; Multivariate kernel estimator; Risk aversion; Stochastic efficiency with respect to a function; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; C44.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24663

A Comparison of Risk Exposure in Aquaculture and Agricultural Businesses
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Flaten,   Ola; Lien,   Gudbrand D.; Tveteras,   Ragnar.
Agriculture and aquaculture have common features associated with their biological nature affecting risk exposure of the businesses. The aim of this paper is to compare risk exposure in salmon farming and agricultural enterprises in Norway by using an implicit error component model to examine the risk structure of yields, prices and economic returns at the farm level. Results indicate a higher farm-level year-to-year variability in yields, prices and economic returns in salmon farming than in agricultural enterprises. The variability in livestock enterprises was generally lower than for crop enterprises. Return on assets was highest in salmon farming with an average annual return of 9.2%. All of the agricultural farm types exhibited a negative average...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; Variability; Norway; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44052

Stochastic Efficiency Analysis With Risk Aversion Bounds: A Simplified Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hardaker,   J. Brian; Lien,   Gudbrand D.
A method of stochastic dominance analysis with respect to a function (SDRF) is described and illustrated. The method, called stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF), partitions a set of risky alternatives in terms of certainty equivalents for a specified range of attitudes to risk. It can be applied for any utility function with risk attitudes defined by corresponding ranges of absolute, relative or partial risk aversion coefficients. SERF involves comparing each alternative with all the other alternatives simultaneously, not pairwise as with conventional SDRF. Hence it yields a subset of the efficient set found by SDRF. Moreover, the method is readily implemented in a simple spreadsheet with no special software needed.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; Stochastic dominance with respect to a function; Risk aversion.; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12954

Modelling Risks in the Salmon Industry and Markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Asheim,   Leif Jarle; Lien,   Gudbrand D.; Richardson,   James W.; Tveteras,   Ragnar; Veggeland,   Frode.
The paper proposes developing a trade model for salmon to assist in discussions and negotiations of current international salmon trade issues and major risk problems facing the salmon industry.  Two modeling approaches are discussed: 1) developing a traditional equilibrium trade programming model designed to maximize total welfare across all model regions by solving for a medium-term price that balances the amount of salmon supplied by the world region to the among processed and consumed by this region; and 2) developing an econometric stochastic simulation model based on linear or non-linear equations.  Some disadvantages and weaknesses of the programming model are discussed, whereas the econometric model needs further exploration and consideration.  The...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risks; Salmon; Programming model; Econometric model; International trade; Livestock Production/Industries; C60; C50.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56000

Risk programming and sparse data: how to get more reliable results
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hardaker,   J. Brian; Lien,   Gudbrand D.; Van Asseldonk,   Marcel A.P.M.; Richardson,   James W.; Hegrenes,   Agnar.
Because relevant historical data for farms are inevitably sparse, most risk programming studies rely on few observations. We discuss how to use available information to derive an appropriate multivariate distribution function that can be sampled for a more complete representation of the possible risks in riskbased models. For the particular example of a Norwegian mixed livestock and crop farm, the solution is shown to be unstable with few states, although the cost of picking a sub-optimal plan declines with increases in number of states by Latin Hypercube sampling.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk programming; States of nature; Sparse data; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44051

Stochastic Utility-Efficient Programming of Organic Dairy Farms
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Flaten,   Ola; Lien,   Gudbrand D.
Opportunities to make sequential decisions and adjust activities as a season progresses and more information becomes available characterize the farm management process.  In this paper, we present a discrete stochastic two-stage utility efficient programming model of organic dairy farms, which includes risk aversion in the decision maker's objective function as well as both embedded risk (stochastic programming with resource) and non-embedded risk (stochastic programming without recourse).  Historical farm accountancy data and subjective judgments were combined to assess the nature of the uncertainty that affects the possible consequences of the decisions.  The programming model was used within a stochastic dominance framework to examine optimal strategies...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Risk analysis; Stochastic programming; Stochastic dominance; Organic farming; Livestock Production/Industries; Q12; C61.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24743

Assisting Whole-Farm Decision-Making through Stochastic Budgeting
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lien,   Gudbrand D.
Stochastic budgeting is used to simulate the business and financial risk and the performance over a six-year planning horizon on a Norwegian dairy farm. A major difficulty with stochastic whole-farm budgeting lies in identifying and measuring dependency relationships between stochastic variables. Some methods to account for these stochastic dependencies are illustrated. The financial feasibility of different investment and management strategies is evaluated. In contrast with earlier studies with stochastic farm budgeting, the option aspect is included in the analysis.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farm Management.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6950

Simulating Multivariate Distributions with Sparse Data: A Kernal Density Smoothing Procedure
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lien,   Gudbrand D.; Hardaker,   J. Brian; Richardson,   James W.
Often analysts must conduct risk analysis based on a small number of observations. This paper describes and illustrates the use of a kernel density estimation procedure to smooth out irregularities in such a sparse data set for simulating univariate and multivariate probability distributions.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Stochastic simulation; Smoothing; Multivariate kernel estimator; Parzen; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Q12; C8.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25449

Risk and Risk Management in Organic and Conventional Dairy Farming: Empirical Results from Norway
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lien,   Gudbrand D.; Flaten,   Ola; Ebbesvik,   Martha; Koesling,   Matthias; Valle,   Paul Steinar.
The objective of this study was to provide empirical insight into dairy farmers' goals, relative risk attitude, sources of risk and risk management responses. The study also examines whether organic dairy farming, leads to important risk sources not experienced in conventional farming and, if so, how those extra risks is managed. The data originate from a questionnaire survey of conventional (n=370) and organic  (n=160) dairy farmers in Norway. The results show that organic farmers have somewhat different goals than conventional farmers, and that the average organic farmer is less risk averse. Institutional risk was perceived as the most important source of risk, independently of conventional or organic production system, while organic farmers indicated...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24382

A Multicriteria Evaluation by the Public Approval of Pesticides – A Case with the Plant-Growth Regulators in Grain
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Refsgaard,   Karen; Flaten,   Ola; Gudem, Runchild; Lien,   Gudbrand D.
Our object is to develop a method for the public approval and re-evaluation of pesticides that emphasises a wide evaluation of social benefits. This is done through the case for the three plant-growth regulators approved for use in Norwegian grain production at present: chlormequat chloride, ethephon and trinexapacethyl. A multicriteria method is founded on the premises for an expert based model as opposed to e.g. a market based model. It seems to be a possible method that allows for the use of several incommensurable criteria in the approval process by National Agricultural Inspection Service (NAIS). Furthermore, it results in greater transparency, which may be an important quality in a public decision process. However, there are problems connected to a...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farm Management.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6952

Life and work on small-scale farms in Norway: an outlook based on survey results linked to financial data
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lien,   Gudbrand D.; Bergfjord,   Ole Jakob; Hoveid,   Oyvind.
This paper studies what causes (small-scale) farmers to leave their farms and typically move to urban areas. A data set is constructed by linking survey results with financial data, and the data set is analyzed by multivariate statistical techniques. Our results indicate that, while existence and size of future farm production is important, there is also a difference between farmers who primarily have financial objectives for their farming, and those who have more lifestyle oriented objectives. The latter group is, everything else being equal, more likely to stay on the farm. This could imply that, if preventing migration from rural to urban areas is a policy objective, production support schemes will be effective for some groups, but will be less...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Migration; Farmer objectives; Agricultural policy; Structural equation modelling; Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/52849

Optimal Length of Leys in an Area with Winter Damage Problems – Optimal Economic Lengths of Leys
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hegrenes,   Agnar; Lien,   Gudbrand D.; Hardaker,   J. Brian.
The optimal economic life cycle of grass leys with winter damage problems in northern Norway and the threshold of winter damage before it is profitable to re-seed grasses are investigated. The loss in profit of a sub-optimal strategy compared to an optimal strategy is briefly discussed. An infinite horizon stochastic dynamic programming model including a normally distributed yield process with possibilities for discrete downward jumps is developed. The jump process reflects the sudden drop in production after winter damage. Normally the yield of ley increases the first few years after a year with downward jump, and this dynamic is included in the model. The transition probabilities used in the model are estimated with Monte Carlo simulation. Our result...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farm Management.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6945