Consulta: creatorFacets:"Ramirez,   Octavio A."
Registros recuperados: 32
Data/hora: 02/06/2024 13:35:16

Premium Estimation Inaccuracy and the Actuarial Performance of the US Crop Insurance Program
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.; Carpio,   Carlos E.
This article explores the impact of the likely levels of inaccuracy associated with two main types of premium estimation methods, under different sample sizes, on the actuarial performance of the US crop insurance program. The analyses are conducted under several plausible assumptions about the insurer versus the producers’ estimates for their actuarially fair premiums. Significant differences are found due to estimation method and sample size, with the currently used procedures resulting in the worse actuarial performance. Several conclusions and recommendations are provided that could markedly reduce the amount of public subsidies needed to keep this program solvent.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Subsidies; Crop Insurance Premium Estimation; Loss-Cost Procedures; Risk Management Agency; Financial Economics.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/102463

Local Food Impacts on Health and Nutrition
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ferrer,   Myra Clarisse R.; Fonsah,   Esendugue Greg; Ramirez,   Octavio A.; Escalante,   Cesar L.
Prevalence of local foods is believed to answer several food issues one of which is health and nutrition. This study focused on the on the availability of local foods to consumers and see its relationship with two specific diet-related diseases namely, obesity and diabetes. Other variables were included in the analysis to provide additional evidence to previous findings. Factors considered are divided into 5 groups namely diet-, local food-, environment-, education- and gender-related factors. Diet- and environment-related variables provide the most perceptive findings while local food variables provided significant however weak evidence of positive impacts to health and nutrition.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Local foods; Diabetes; Obesity; Food environment; Farmers' market; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Health Economics and Policy; I15; I31.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103664

Universidad Estatal de Nuevo Mexico NMSU. Campus las Cruces
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.
The New Mexico State University, which is denominated as New Mexico's “Land Grant University”, is formed by more than 24,000 students within its five sites throughout the state of New Mexico. The main site, which is located in the bicultural city of Las Cruces, houses around 16,000 students, including 3,300 graduate ones distributed in 51 graduate degree programs and 25 Ph.D. programs. NMSU is classified by the Carnegie Foundation as a “Research Extensive” University. In terms of administration it is divided into six faculties, including the Agriculture and Domestic Economy Faculty (CAHE).
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: NMSU; Las Cruces; Graduate degree and Ph.D. programs; Agribusiness.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48613

ASSESSING THE FINANCIAL RISKS OF DIVERSIFIED COFFEE PRODUCTION SYSTEMS:  AN ALTERNATIVE NONNORMAL CDF ESTIMATION APPROACH
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.; Sosa,   Romeo.
Recently developed techniques are adapted and combined for the modeling and simulation of crop yields and prices that can be mutually correlated, exhibit heteroskedasticity or autocorrelation, and follow nonnormal probability density functions. The techniques are applied to the modeling and simulation of probability distribution functions for the returns of three tropical agroforestry systems for coffee production. The importance of using distribution functions that can more closely reflect the statistical behavior of yields and prices for risk analysis is discussed and illustrated.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30838

The Asymmetric Cycling of U.S. Soybeans and Brazilian Coffee Prices: An Opportunity for Improved Forecasting and Understanding of Price Behavior
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.
The behavior of agricultural commodity markets can arguably result in markedly asymmetric price cycles, that is, downward cycles of substantially different length and breadth than upward cycles. This study assesses whether asymmetric-cycle models can enhance the understanding of the dynamics and provide for a better forecasting of U.S. soybeans and Brazilian coffee prices. The forecasts from asymmetric cycle models are found to be substantially mode precise than those obtained from standard autoregressive models. The asymmetric cycle models also provide useful insights on the markedly different dynamics of the upward versus the downward cycles exhibited by the prices of these two commodities.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Asymmetric cycles; Coffee prices; Soybean prices; Threshold autoregressive models; Time series forecasting; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; C22; C53.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48760

ARE CROP YIELDS NORMALLY DISTRIBUTED?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.; Misra,   Sukant K.; Field,   James E.
This paper revisits the issue of crop yield distributions using improved model specifications, estimation and testing procedures that address the methodological concerns raised in recent literature that could have invalidated previous conclusions of yield non-normality. It shows beyond reasonable doubt that some crop yield distributions are non-normal, kurtotic and right or left skewed, depending on the circumstances. A procedure to jointly estimate non-normal farm- and aggregate-level yield distributions with similar means but different variances is illustrated, and the consequences of incorrectly assuming yield normality are explored.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Yield non-normality; Probability distribution function models; Corn Belt yields; West Texas dryland cotton yields; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20695

Potential for Tradable Water Allocation and Rights in Jordan
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Carpio,   Carlos E.; Ramirez,   Octavio A.; Boonsaeng,   Tullaya.
This paper estimates the costs of buying water use rights from farmers located in the Mafraq-Azraq basin in Jordan. Farmers’ water supply curve is estimated using data gathered from a contingent valuation survey. Estimation results indicate that a total supply of 29 million m3 could be periodically purchased from farmers at an annual price of approximately JD 0.23/m3 (1 JD ≈ 0.70 U.S. dollars), or a total cost of about JD 6.8 million per year.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Contingent valuation; Non-parametric estimation; Water supply curve; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56452

AUTOREGRESSIVE CONDITIONAL HETEROSKEDASTICY UNDER ERROR-TERM NON-NORMALITY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.
This paper explores the impact of error-term non-normality on the performance of the normal-error Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH) model under small and moderate sample sizes. A non-normal-, asymmetric-error GARCH model is proposed, and its finite-sample performance is evaluated in comparison to the normal-error GARCH under various underlying error-term distributions. The results suggest that one must be skeptical of using the normal-error GARCH when there is evidence of conditional error-term non-normality. The conditional distribution of the error-term in a previous mainstream application of the normal GARCH is found to be non-normal and asymmetric. The same application is used to illustrate the advantages of the proposed...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Error- term non-normality; Skewness; Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20595

Evaluating Crop and Revenue Insurance Products as Risk Management Tools for Texas Cotton Producers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Field,   James E.; Misra,   Sukant K.; Ramirez,   Octavio A.
This paper develops and illustrates the application of a procedure to evaluate and compare the cost effectiveness of alternative crop insurance products for cotton in terms of their effect on expected producer net returns and the variation of net returns.  Farm unit-level cotton yields and state-level price distributions are estimated by a multivariate nonnormal parametric modeling procedure and used to simulate the net returns to alternative crop insurance products over a 10-year planning horizon.  The ranking of alternative insurance products using third-degree stochastic dominance is presented for Texas cotton producers.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Cotton; Crop insurance; Multivariate nonnormal parametric modeling; Stochastic dominance; C5; Q1.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37314

Improving Forecast Performance with Reduced Parameter, Large Order AR Models
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.; Dorfman,   Jeffrey H.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Time series; Modelling; Bayesian probability; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60917

UNIVERSIDAD ESTATAL DE NUEVO MEXICO NMSU. CAMPUS LAS CRUCES: PROGRAMAS DE POSGRADO EN ECONOMIA AGRICOLA Y AGRONEGOCIOS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.
The New Mexico State University, which is denominated as New Mexico's “Land Grant University”, is formed by more than 24,000 students within its five sites throughout the state of NewMexico. The main site, which is located in the bicultural city of Las Cruces, houses around 16,000 students, including 3,300 graduate ones distributed in 51 graduate degree programs and 25 Ph.D. programs. NMSUis classified by the Carnegie Foundation as a “Research Extensive” University. In terms of administration it is divided into six faculties, including the Agriculture and Domestic Economy Faculty (CAHE).
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: NMSU; Las Cruces; Graduate degree and Ph.D. programs; NMSU; Las Cruces; Programas de maestría y doctorado.; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45840

Issues and Strategies for Aggregate Supply Response Estimation for Policy Analyses
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.; Mohanty,   Samarendu; Carpio,   Carlos E.; Denning,   Megan.
We demonstrate the use of the small-sample econometrics principles and strategies to come up with reliable yield and acreage models for policy analyses.  We focus on demonstrating the importance of proper representation of systematic and random components of the model for improving forecasting precision along with more reliable confidence intervals for the forecasts.  A probability distribution function modeling approach, which has been shown to provide more reliable confidence intervals for the dependent variable forecasts than the standard models that assume error term normality, is used to estimate cotton supply response in the Southeastern United States.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Nonnormality; Probability distribution function; Supply response; Q11; Q18; C32.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43420

An Empirically-Grounded Comparison of the Johnson System versus the Beta as Crop Yield Distribution Models
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.; McDonald,   Tanya U.
Previous research established that the expanded Johnson system can accommodate any theoretically possible mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis combination. Therefore, it has been hypothesized that this system can provide for a reasonably accurate modeling approximation of any probability distribution that might be encountered in practice. In order to test that hypothesis, this manuscript develops a more flexible expanded form of the Beta distribution which, in its original form, has been widely used to model and simulate crop yields for risk analysis. Empirically grounded evaluations suggest that the Johnson system can model a variety of typical yield data-generating processes that are based on the Beta distribution much more precisely than the Beta can model...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9814

Empirically Evaluating the Flexibility of the Johnson Family of Distributions: A Crop Insurance Application
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lu,   Yue; Ramirez,   Octavio A.; Rejesus,   Roderick M.; Knight,   Thomas O.; Sherrick,   Bruce J.
This article examines the flexibility of the Johnson system of distributions by assessing its per-formance in terms of modeling crop yields for the purpose of setting actuarially fair crop in-surance premiums. Using data from corn farms in Illinois coupled with Monte Carlo simula-tion procedures, we found that average crop insurance premiums computed on the basis of the Johnson system provide reasonably accurate estimates even when the data are normal or come from a non-normal distribution other than the Johnson system (i.e., a beta). These results sug-gest that there is potential for using the Johnson system to rate previously uninsured crops that do not have historical insurance performance data upon which to base premium calculations.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Crop yield modeling; Johnson distribution; Premium rate setting; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44740

Conclusive Evidence on the Benefits of Temporal Disaggregation to Improve the Precision of Time Series Model Forecasts
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.
Simulation methods are used to measure the expected differentials between the Mean Square Errors of the forecasts from models based on temporally disaggregated versus aggregated data. This allows for novel comparisons including long-order ARMA models, such as those expected with weekly data, under realistic conditions where the parameter values have to be estimated. The ambivalence of past empirical evidence on the benefits of disaggregation is addressed by analyzing four different economic time series for which relatively large sample sizes are available. Because of this, a sufficient number of predictions can be considered to obtain conclusive results from out-of-sample forecasting contests. The validity of the conventional method for inferring the order...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Data Aggregation; Efficient Forecasting; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123470

ECONOMIC VALUE OF THE CARBON SINK SERVICES OF TROPICAL SECONDARY FORESTS AND ITS MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.; Carpio,   Carlos E.; Ortiz,   Rosalba; Finnegan,   Brian.
This paper explores the economic feasibility secondary forest regeneration and conservation as an alternative to help address global warming. Detailed measurements of tropical secondary forests through time, in different ecological zones of Costa Rica, are used for estimating carbon storage models. The paper addresses key issues in the international discussion about cross- and within-country compensation for carbon storage services and illustrates a method to compute/predict their economic value through time under a variety of scenarios. The procedure is applicable to other developing countries where secondary forest growth is increasingly important.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Tropical Forests; Carbon Sequestration; Global Warming; Activities Implemented Jointly.; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q23; Q25; Q28.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21776

Income Earning Potential versus Consumptive Amenities in Determining Ranchland Values
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Torell,   L. Allen; Rimbey,   Neil R.; Ramirez,   Octavio A.; McCollum,   Daniel W.
The relative importance of income earning potential versus consumptive values in setting ranchland prices is examined using a truncated hedonic model. The market value of New Mexico ranches is related to annual income earning potential and other ranch characteristics including ranch size, location, elevation, terrain, and the amount of deeded, public, and state trust land on the ranch. We found ranch income to be a statistically important determinant of land value, but yet a relatively small percentage of ranch value was explained by income earnings. Ranch location, scenic view, and the desirable lifestyle influenced ranch value more than ranch income.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Consumptive value; Grazing fees; Grazing permit value; Hedonic model; Land value; Lifestyle agriculture; Public land grazing; Voluntary grazing permit buyout; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30986

HIGH PRICE VOLATILITY AND SPILLOVER EFFECTS IN ENERGY MARKETS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Singh,   Aaron; Karali,   Berna; Ramirez,   Octavio A.
Replaced with revised version of paper 07/22/11.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Asymmetric shocks; Energy markets; Oil; Spillover effects; Volatility; Marketing; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; GARCH.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103593

JOINT MODELING AND SIMULATION OF AUTOCORRELATED NON-NORMAL TIME SERIES: AN APPLICATION TO RISK AND RETURN ANALYSIS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.; Somarriba,   Eduardo.
This study presents a technique that can jointly model and simulate the expected values, variances, and covariances of sets of correlated time-series dependent variables that are autocorrelated and non-normal (right or left skewed and/or kurtotic).  It illustrates the method by applying it to risk analysis of diversified tropical agroforestry systems.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21564

RISK AND RETURNS OF DIVERSIFIED CROPPING SYSTEMS UNDER NONNORMAL, CROSS-, AND AUTOCORRELATED COMMODITY PRICE STRUCTURES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.; Somarriba,   Eduardo.
This study analyzes the risks of diversified tropical cropping systems that combine cocoa, plantain, and tree-crop components in different proportions versus traditional monocultures.  A technique for modeling the expected values, variances, and covariances of correlated time-series variables that are autocorrelated and nonnormal  (right or left skewed and kurtotic) is applied to simulate commodity prices.  The importance of using simulated cumulative density functions (cdf's) which reflect the most important characteristics of the stochastic behavior of prices for analyzing risk and returns of diversified agricultural systems is demonstrated.  The analysis priovides evidence in favor of diversified cocoa-plantain-Cordia agroforestry system technologies...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30901

Can Crop Insurance Premiums be Reliably Estimated?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.; Carpio,   Carlos E.; Rejesus,   Roderick M.
The objective of this paper is to compare the accuracy of crop insurance rating methods based on historical liability and indemnity data (similar to the procedure currently used by the Risk Management Agency) and “yield distribution” approaches.  Estimated rates are compared to “true” rates using empirically-grounded simulation procedures that take into account common data availability constraints. Simulation results suggest that farm and county level rate estimates using the “yield distribution” approach are significantly more accurate than those based on historical indemnity and liability records.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance premiums; Non-normal distributions; Simulation methods; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49465

ESTIMATION OF EFFICIENT REGRESSION MODELS FOR APPLIED AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS RESEARCH
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.; Misra,   Sukant K.; Nelson,   Jeannie.
This paper proposes and explores the use of a partially adaptive estimation technique to improve the reliability of the inferences made from multiple regression models when the dependent variable is not normally distributed. The relevance of this technique for agricultural economics research is evaluated through Monte Carlo simulation and two mainstream applications: A time-series analysis of agricultural commodity prices and an empirical model of the West Texas cotton basis.  It is concluded that, given non-normality, this technique can substantially reduce the magnitude of the standard errors of the slope parameter estimators in relation to OLS, GLS and other least squares based estimation procedures, in practice, allowing for more precise inferences...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Efficient regression models; Partially adaptive estimation; Non-normality; Skewness; Heteroskedasticity; Autocorrelation.; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19904

The Expanded Johnson System: A Highly Flexible Crop Yield Distribution Model
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.; McDonald,   Tanya U.
Replaced with revised version of paper 11/28/06. Former title: The Expanded and Re-Parameterized Johnson System: A Most Crop-Yield Distribution Model
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21455

PARAMETRIC MODELING AND SIMULATION OF JOINT PRICE-PRODUCTION DISTRIBUTIONS UNDER NON-NORMALITY, AUTOCORRELATION AND HETEROSCEDASTICITY: A TOOL FOR ASSESSING RISK IN AGRICULTURE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.
This study presents a way to parametrically model and simulate multivariate distributions under potential non-normality, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity and illustrates its application to agricultural risk analysis. Specifically, the joint probability distribution (pdf) for West Texas irrigated cotton, corn, sorghum, and wheat production and prices is estimated and applied to evaluate the changes in the risk and returns of agricultural production in the region resulting from observed and predicted price and production trends. The estimated pdf allows for time trends on the mean and the variance and varying degrees of autocorrelation and non-normality (kurtosis and right- or left-skewness) in each of the price and production variables. It also allows...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural risk analysis; Autocorrelation; Heteroscedasticity; Multivariate non-normal simulation; West Texas agriculture; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15486

Conclusive Evidence on the Benefits of Temporal Disaggregation to Improve the Precision of Time Series Model Forecasts
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.
Simulation methods are used to measure the expected differentials between the Mean Square Errors of the forecasts from models based on temporally disaggregated versus aggregated data. This allows for novel comparisons including long-order ARMA models, such as those expected with weekly data, under realistic conditions where the parameter values have to be estimated. The ambivalence of past empirical evidence on the benefits of disaggregation is addressed by analyzing four different economic time series for which relatively large sample sizes are available. Because of this, a sufficient number of predictions can be considered to obtain conclusive results from out-of-sample forecasting contests. The validity of the conventional method for inferring the order...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Data Aggregation; Efficient Forecasting; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/113520

RISK ANALYSIS UNDER CORRELATED, NON-NORMAL PRICE AND YIELD PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.; Sosa,   Romeo.
Recently developed techniques are combined for modeling mutually correlated crop yields and prices that exhibit heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation, respectively, and follow non-normal probability density functions (pdf's). The importance rigorously modeling these pdf's for financial risk analysis is illustrated through a case study of tropical agroforestry systems for coffee production.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21888

USE OF ASYMMETRIC-CYCLE AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS TO IMPROVE FORECASTING OF AGRICULTURAL TIME SERIES VARIABLES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.
Threshold autoregressive (TAR) models can accommodate the asymmetric cycling behavior observed in some time series data. This study develops a procedure to estimate TAR models when the conditional mean of the dependent variable is function of one or more exogenous factors while allowing for heteroskedasticity, i.e. for different levels of variation in upward versus downward cycles. The formulas to obtain predictions from TAR models are derived. Monte Carlo simulation analyses suggest that TAR models can significantly improve forecasting precision. Substantial gains in forecasting precision, in comparison with AR models, are in fact found when applying the proposed procedure to the modeling of U.S. quarterly soybeans future prices and Brazilian coffee spot...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21365

Can Crop Insurance Premiums Be Reliably Estimated?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.; Carpio,   Carlos E.; Rejesus,   Roderick M.
This paper develops and applies a methodology to assess the accuracy of historical loss-cost rating procedures, similar to those used by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Risk Management Agency (RMA), versus alternative parametric premium estimation methods. It finds that the accuracy of loss-cost procedures leaves much to be desired, but can be markedly improved through the use of alternative methods and increased farm-level yield sample sizes. Evidence suggests that the high degree of inaccuracy in crop insurance premium estimations through historical loss-cost procedures identified in the paper might be a major factor behind the need for substantial government subsidies to keep the program solvent.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural subsidies; Crop insurance premium estimation; Loss-cost procedures; Risk Management Agency; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/107091

EFFECTS OF QUALITY CONSIDERATIONS AND CLIMATE/WEATHER INFORMATION ON THE MANAGEMENT AND PROFITABILITY OF COTTON PRODUCTION IN THE TEXAS HIGH PLAINS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Britt,   Megan L.; Ramirez,   Octavio A.; Carpio,   Carlos E.
Production function models for cotton lint yields, seed yields, turnout, and lint quality characteristics are developed for the Texas High Plains.  They are used to evaluate the impacts of quality considerations and of climate/weather information on the management decisions and on the profitability and risk of irrigated cotton production systems.  It is concluded that both quality considerations and improved climatic/weather information could have substantial effects on expected profitability and risk.  These effects mainly occur because of changes in optimal variety selection an irrigation water use levels.  Quality considerations in particular result in significantly lower irrigation water use levels regardless of the climate/weather information...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Climatic/weather information; Cotton quality; Ground water resource use; Risk and uncertainty; Texas High Plains; Crop Production/Industries; D21; D24; D61; D81; D84.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15082

Forecasting Agricultural Commodity Prices with Asymmetric-Error GARCH Models
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.; Fadiga,   Mohamadou L.
The performance of a proposed asymmetric-error GARCH model is evaluated in comparison to the normal-error- and Student-t-GARCH models through three applications involving forecasts of U.S. soybean, sorghum, and wheat prices. The applications illustrate the relative advantages of the proposed model specification when the error term is asymmetrically distributed, and provide improved probabilistic forecasts for the prices of these commodities.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: GARCH; Nonnormality; Skewness; Time-series forecasting; U.S. commodity prices; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30714

POISSON COUNT MODELS TO EXPLAIN THE ADOPTION OF AGRICULTURAL AND NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGIES BY SMALL FARMERS IN CENTRAL AMERICAN COUNTRIES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.; Schultz,   Steven D.
Evaluations of the factors influencing the adoption of agricultural and natural resource management technologies among small farmers in developing countries have been mostly limited to qualitative discussions or simple descriptive statistics resulting in superficial and inconclusive findings. This study introduces the use of Poisson Count Regressions as a statistically appropriate procedure to analyze certain common types of adoption data. It uses them to assess the impact of key socio-economic, bio-physical, and institutional factors on the adoption of integrated pest management, agroforestry, and soil conservation technologies among small farmers in three Central American countries: Costa Rica, Panama, and El Salvador.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agroforestry; Evaluation of development projects; Integrated pest management; Poisson count regressions; Soil conservation; Technology adoption; Farm Management; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15400

A Flexible Parametric Family for the Modeling and Simulation of Yield Distributions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.; McDonald,   Tanya U.; Carpio,   Carlos E.
The distributions currently used to model and simulate crop yields are unable to accommodate a substantial subset of the theoretically feasible mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis (MVSK) hyperspace. Because these first four central moments are key determinants of shape, the available distributions might not be capable of adequately modeling all yield distributions that could be encountered in practice. This study introduces a system of distributions that can span the entire MVSK space and assesses its potential to serve as a more comprehensive parametric crop yield model, improving the breadth of distributional choices available to researchers and the likelihood of formulating proper parametric models.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; Parametric methods; Yield distributions; Yield modeling and simulation; Yield nonnormality; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C15; C16; C46; C63.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90675