Consulta: creatorFacets:"Thurlow,   James"
Registros recuperados: 21
Data/hora: 05/06/2024 17:17:22

A STANDARD COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL FOR SOUTH AFRICA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Thurlow,   James; van Seventer,   Dirk Ernst.
The paper reports on the construction and testing of a Standard International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) computable general equilibrium model for South Africa. A 1998 social accounting matrix (SAM) for South Africa is compiled using national accounts information and recently released supply-use tables. By updating to a recent year, and by distinguishing between producers and commodities, this SAM is an improvement on the existing SAM databases for South Africa. Furthermore, this SAM is made consistent with the requirements of IFPRI's standard comparative static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. This model is then used to simulate the economy- wide impact of a range of hypothetical policy levers, including: increased government...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: International Development.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16279

Potential Impacts of a Green Revolution in Africa – the Case of Ghana
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Breisinger,   Clemens; Diao,   Xinshen; Thurlow,   James; Al-Hassan,   Ramatu M.
Agricultural growth in Africa has accelerated, yet most of this growth has been driven by land expansion. Land expansion potential is reaching its limits, urging governments to shift towards a green revolution type of productivity-led growth. Given the huge public investments required, this paper aims to assess the potential impacts of a green revolution. Results from a CGE model for Ghana show that green revolution type growth is strongly pro-poor and provides substantial transfers to the rest of the economy, thus providing a powerful argument to raise public expenditure on agriculture to make a green revolution happen in Africa.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Green Revolution; Growth; Poverty; Africa; Ghana; CGE; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Development; D58; O13; O55.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51086

Accelerating Growth and Structural Transformation: Ghana’s Options for Reaching Middle-Income Country Status
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Breisinger,   Clemens; Diao,   Xinshen; Thurlow,   James; Yu,   Bingxin; Kolavalli,   Shashidhara.
Ghana is an emerging success story in Africa and in a couple of years will become the first African country to achieve the first Millennium Development Goal of halving its national poverty rate. The government of Ghana has therefore extended its development vision and recently declared the goal of reaching middle-income-country (MIC) status by 2015. To analyze possible pathways and implications of achieving MIC status, this paper examines other countries’ experiences on their way to becoming MICs and emphasizes the important role of growth acceleration, export diversification, and economic structural change in the transformation process. The paper further analyzes Ghana’s growth options and their structural implications using a dynamic computable general...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Growth and development; Middle income country; Applied general equilibrium modeling; Ghana; Africa; International Development.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42347

Asian-driven Resource Booms in Africa: Rethinking the Impacts on Development
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Breisinger,   Clemens; Thurlow,   James.
Today’s resource boom in Africa, driven by Asian economic growth, offers new opportunities for resource-rich African countries. Contrary to the experience of previous booms, however, most mining profits now accrue to foreign companies, leaving little room for governments to use revenues for pro-poor investments or to mitigate adverse distributional impacts. Taking Zambia as a case study, this paper shows that despite privatization, Dutch disease remains a valid concern and may hamper economic diversification, worsen income distribution, and undermine poverty reduction strategies. Mining royalties must, therefore, be increased and used to finance growth-inducing investments that encourage pro-poor economic diversification, else many African countries will...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Dutch disease; Resource booms; Privatization; Income distribution; Africa; Zambia; International Relations/Trade; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42351

THE ROAD TO PRO-POOR GROWTH IN ZAMBIA: PAST LESSONS AND FUTURE CHALLENGES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Thurlow,   James; Wobst,   Peter.
Zambia is one of the poorest countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Almost three-quarters of the population were considered poor at the start of the 1990s, with a vast majority of these people concentrated in rural and remote areas. This extreme poverty arose in spite of Zambia’s seemingly promising prospects following independence. To better understand the failure of growth and poverty-reduction this paper first considers the relationship between the structure of growth and Zambia’s evolving political economy. A strong urban-bias has shaped the country’s growth path leading to a economy both artificially and unsustainably distorted in favor of manufacturing and mining at the expense of rural areas. For agriculture it was the maize-bias of public policies that...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Copper mines and mining; Poverty alleviation; Africa; Zambia; Manufacturing industries; Spatial analysis; Household surveys; Agricultural growth; International Development.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60169

MACRO AND MICRO EFFECTS OF RECENT AND POTENTIAL SHOCKS TO COPPER MINING IN ZAMBIA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lofgren,   Hans; Robinson,   Sherman; Thurlow,   James.
As a result of Zambia's dependence on copper mining, both the falling world copper price and the possible withdrawal of investment from the mining sector might seriously threaten economic growth and stability. Accordingly, the impact of a 20 percent reduction in world copper prices and a complete collapse of the copper mining sector are modeled using a 1995 computable general equilibrium model for Zambia.   Results indicate that the fall in world copper prices will place significant pressure on non- mining exports, with much of the burden of raising foreign exchange falling on the food, beverages and tobacco, and textiles and garment sectors. However, the agricultural and agro-related industries are the most export-responsive (albeit from initially low...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16309

Has trade liberalization in South Africa affected men and women differently?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Thurlow,   James.
Trade liberalization is a central part of South Africa’s post-Apartheid development strategy. However, despite considerable reforms, the country has failed to generate pro-poor growth, with both unemployment and inequality worsening over the last ten years. This has raised concern that trade liberalization may have worked against the country’s development objectives. This study uses a dynamic general equilibrium and microsimulation model to assess the effects of trade liberalization on growth, employment and poverty in South Africa. More specifically, it examines how men and women have been affected differently and whether liberalization has contributed to the faster rise in female unemployment and poverty. The results suggest that trade policies have not...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55397

Inequality and Poverty Impacts of Trade Distortions in Mozambique
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Arndt,   Channing; Thurlow,   James.
Although Mozambique has considerable agricultural potential, rural poverty remains extremely high. This paper examines the extent to which global and domestic price distortions affect agricultural production and national poverty. We develop a computable general equilibrium (CGE) and micro-simulation model of Mozambique that is linked to the results of a global model. This framework is used to examine the effects of eliminating global and national price distortions. Model results indicate that agriculture is adversely affected by current trade distortions due to policies in the rest of the world. While a removal of all merchandise trade distortions would reduce import prices, it would also raise agricultural production and reduce poverty. By contrast,...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Distorted incentives; Agricultural and trade policy reforms; National agricultural development; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; F13; F14; Q17; Q18.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/52794

The role of agriculture in development implications for Sub-Saharan Africa
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Diao,   Xinshen; Hazell,   Peter B.R.; Resnick,   Danielle; Thurlow,   James.
This paper provides a nuanced perspective on debates about the potential for Africa’s smallholder agriculture to stimulate growth and alleviate poverty in an increasingly integrated world. In particular, the paper synthesizes both the traditional theoretical literature on agriculture’s role in the development process and discusses more recent literature that remains skeptical about agriculture’s development potential for Africa. In order to examine in greater detail the relevance for Africa of both the “old” and “new” literatures on agriculture, the paper provides a typology of African countries based on their stage of development, agricultural conditions, natural resources, and geographic location… More broadly, the paper demonstrates that conventional...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Growth-poverty linkages; Smallholders; Poverty alleviation; Agricultural development; Africa; Economic aspects; Agricultural sector; Ethiopia; Ghana; Rwanda; Uganda; Zambia; International Development.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55405

Agglomeration, Migration and Agricultural Growth: A Regional CGE Analysis for Uganda
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dorosh,   Paul A.; Thurlow,   James.
CGE Analysis; Development Strategy; sub-Saharan Africa;
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Rural-urban linkages; Internal migration; Regional development; Agricultural and Food Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Q18; R13; R23.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50775

COPPER CRISIS AND AGRICULTURAL RENAISSANCE IN ZAMBIA: AN ECONOMY-WIDE ANALYSIS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lofgren,   Hans; Robinson,   Sherman; Thurlow,   James.
Zambia's strong dependence on copper exports has suppressed other tradables sectors, indicative of a Dutch disease phenomenon.  The current copper crisis will have strong economic effects, possibly reversing such Dutch disease effects.  We use a computable general equilibrium model built around a 1995 social accounting matrix to simulate the short- and long-run effects of two scenarios that reflect the current crisis, a 20 percent reduction in world copper prices and a complete collapse of copper mining.  Compared to the short run, the long run is characterized by more flexibility in production technology and capital allocation. Both scenarios require a significant reduction in the "non-copper" trade deficit, absorption, and household consumption.  The...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Zambia; Copper; Structural adjustment; Agriculture; General equilibrium; International Development; C68; O55; Q17; Q32.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25805

Biofuels, Poverty, and Growth: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Mozambique
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Arndt,   Channing; Benfica,   Rui M.S.; Tarp,   Finn; Thurlow,   James; Uaiene,   Rafael N.
This paper assesses the implications of large-scale investments in biofuels for growth and income distribution. We find that biofuels investment enhances growth and poverty reduction despite some displacement of food crops by biofuels. Overall, the biofuel investment trajectory analyzed increases Mozambique’s annual economic growth by 0.6 percentage points and reduces the incidence of poverty by about six percentage points over a 12-year phase-in period. Benefits depend on production technology. An outgrower approach to producing biofuels is more pro-poor, due to the greater use of unskilled labor and accrual of land rents to smallholders, compared with the more capital-intensive plantation approach. Moreover, the benefits of outgrower schemes are enhanced...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Bio-fuels; Growth; Poverty; Mozambique; Africa; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Development; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/52004

Agricultural Distortions, Poverty and Inequality in South Africa
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Herault,   Nicolas; Thurlow,   James.
South Africa has rapidly reduced trade barriers since the end of Apartheid, yet agricultural production and exports have remained sluggish. Also, poverty and unemployment have risen and become increasingly concentrated in rural areas. This paper examines the extent to which remaining price distortions, both domestic and foreign, are contributing to the underperformance of the agricultural sector vis-à-vis the rest of the economy. We draw on a computable general equilibrium (CGE) and micro-simulation model of South Africa that are linked to the results of a global trade model. This framework is used to examine the effects of eliminating global and domestic price distortions. Model results indicate that South Africa’s agricultural sector currently benefits...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Distorted incentives; Agricultural and trade policy reforms; National agricultural development; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; F13; F14; Q17; Q18.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/52792

Is HIV/AIDS Undermining Botswana’s ‘Success Story’? Implications for Development Strategy
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Thurlow,   James.
Despite its strong growth record, Botswana faces two prominent development challenges: the onslaught of HIV/AIDS and the slowdown in diamond mining. This study estimates the growth and distributional impact of the HIV/AIDS pandemic and considers its implications for the country’s development prospects, using a dynamic computable general equilibrium and microsimulation model that accounts for the cost of treatment. The results of this analysis indicate that HIV/AIDS reduces GDP growth by 1.6 percent, increases the absolute poverty headcount by 1.5 percentage points and disproportionately hurts labor-intensive manufacturing. Therefore, while mining has dominated the recent slowdown in Botswana’s growth, the present findings suggest that HIV/AIDS is...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Health Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42417

Agricultural Growth, Poverty, and Nutrition in Tanzania
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pauw,   Kalie; Thurlow,   James.
Rapid economic growth has failed to significantly improve poverty and nutrition outcomes in Tanzania. This raises concerns over a decoupling of growth, poverty, and nutrition. We link recent production trends to household incomes and caloric availability using a dynamic computable general equilibrium and micro-level poverty and nutrition modules. Results indicate that the structure of economic growth—not the level—is currently constraining the rate of poverty reduction in Tanzania. Agricultural growth has been driven by larger-scale farmers that are less likely to be poor. Growth has further been concentrated in crops grown in only a few regions of the country. Slow expansion of food crops and livestock also explains the weak relationship between...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Economic growth; Poverty; Nutrition; Computable general equilibrium modeling; Tanzania; Food Security and Poverty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95974

Rural Investments to Accelerate Growth and Poverty Reduction in Kenya
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Thurlow,   James; Kiringai,   Jane; Gautam,   Madhur.
Kenya’s economy is relatively diverse, with both agricultural and industrial potential. However, the economy has performed poorly over the last decade, and poverty and inequality have risen. This paper examines the impact of alternative growth paths and rural investments on poverty using an economy-wide model. It finds that if Kenya continues along its current growth path, its economy will have to grow by more than 10 percent per year over the coming decade to meet the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of halving poverty by 2015. Therefore, Kenya must search for alternative sources of poverty-reducing growth. The results of the model indicate that poverty is unlikely to decline significantly without an acceleration of agricultural growth. Growth in...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Rural investment; Poverty; Inequality; Kenya; Africa; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Food Security and Poverty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42376

CAN SOUTH AFRICA AFFORD TO BECOME AFRICA'S FIRST WELFARE STATE ?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Thurlow,   James.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Institutional and Behavioral Economics.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15946

POVERTY-FOCUSED SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRICES FOR TANZANIA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Thurlow,   James; Wobst,   Peter.
The development of effective and sustainable economic policies for Tanzania requires access to appropriate databases. One such database is a social accounting matrix (SAM) that details the structure of the entire economy, taking into account the patterns of production and demand, and various institutional relationships. Prior to this study the most recent SAM for mainland Tanzania was for 1992 and was based on past household budget and labor force surveys. Following the release of newer versions of these two surveys as well as a new input-output table for 1992, it is desirable to construct a new SAM for the country. Furthermore, given that Tanzania is committed to reducing national poverty, it is necessary that this new SAM is able to address questions...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: International Development.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16262

The role of agriculture in development : implications for Sub-Saharan Africa
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Diao,   Xinshen; Hazell,   Peter B.R.; Resnick,   Danielle; Thurlow,   James.
Thinking on development has long held that agricultural growth is an important step toward economic development and transformation. However, the new challenges facing African agriculture in today’s more globalized environment have led some to question whether conventional wisdom about the role of agriculture in development is still applicable to Africa. There is a shift in emphasis toward nonagricultural growth opportunities, which has the potential to reshape the development strategies of many African countries over the coming decades. This research report critically examines conventional wisdom and contemporary skepticism. It also develops a country typology reflecting the diversity of conditions across the subcontinent and then examines the role of...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Economic aspects; Africa; Sub-Saharan; Farms; Small; Rural development; Poverty; Agriculture and state; International Development.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37878

CAN SOUTH AFRICA AFFORD TO BECOME AFRICA'S FIRST WELFARE STATE?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Thurlow,   James.
This paper assesses the economy-wide impact of implementing and financing a universal or basic income grant (BIG) in South Africa. The various financing scenarios suggested by the proponents of the grant are presented, and these are compared using an applied general equilibrium model for the South African economy. The results indicate that the required changes in direct and indirect tax rates needed to finance the grant without increasing the government deficit are substantially higher than currently predicted. Furthermore, the alternative of reducing government recurrent expenditure to finance the BIG will undoubtedly undermine other government policy objectives. The paper therefore proposes a shift in the current debate, away from determining which of...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Food Security and Poverty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16297

PROSPECTS FOR GROWTH AND POVERTY REDUCTION IN ZAMBIA, 2001-2015
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lofgren,   Hans; Thurlow,   James; Robinson,   Sherman.
Zambia is one of the poorest countries in Africa. Despite substantial reform during the 1990s, the economy has remained heavily dependent on urban-based mining. Copper's long-standing dominance led to a strong bias against agriculture, which undermined the sector's growth and export potential. Consequently poverty has remained concentrated within marginalized rural areas. Recent volatility in copper exports and growing foreign debt indicate the need for further economic diversification and pro-poor growth. These needs have been clearly identified in the country's Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP), which outlines a series of policy objectives aimed at combating HIV/AIDS, reversing the deterioration of education and rural infrastructure, and...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Food Security and Poverty; International Development.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60181