Consulta: subjectFacets:"Counter-cyclical payments"
Registros recuperados: 9
Data/hora: 02/06/2024 03:52:00

VALUING COUNTER-CYCLICAL PAYMENTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCER RISK MANAGEMENT AND PROGRAM ADMINISTRATION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Plato,   Gerald E.; Skully,   David W.; Johnsons,   D. Demcey.
USDA’s current method for estimating expected counter-cyclical payment rates produces unintentionally biased estimates because it does not consider the variability of marketing year prices. Estimates with positive bias increase the risk of overpayment to producers who accept advance payments. According to statute, producers must reimburse the Government for any overpayments, which can lead to cash-flow problems. A model developed for this analysis improved upon the USDA method of estimating counter-cyclical payment rates by accounting for the variability in market price forecast errors. This enhanced method produced unbiased estimates. Forecasters and producers can also use the model to calculate the probabilities of repayment. Producers can use call...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: 2002 Farm Act; Farm and commodity policy; Counter-cyclical payments; Risk management; Price uncertainty; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7184

THE 2002 FARM ACT: PROVISIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR COMMODITY MARKETS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Westcott,   Paul C.; Young,   C. Edwin; Price,   J. Michael.
The Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 (2002 Farm Act), which governs agricultural programs through 2007, was signed into law in May 2002. This report presents an initial evaluation of the new legislation's effects on agricultural commodity markets, based on sectorwide model simulations under alternative policy assumptions. The analysis shows that loan rate changes under the marketing assistance loan program of the 2002 Farm Act initially result in an increase in total planted acreage of eight major program crops. This increase in plantings, however, is relatively small (less than 1 percent), partly due to the inelasticity of acreage response in the sector. In the longer run, the simulations indicate that overall plantings of the eight program...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Farm legislation; 2002 Farm Act; Agricultural programs; Commodity programs; Marketing loans; Counter-cyclical payments; Direct payments; Planting flexibility; Base acres; Payment yields; Farm income; Risk management; FAPSIM; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33745

Payments under the Average Crop Revenue Program: Implications for Government Costs and Producer Preferences
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cooper,   Joseph C.
This paper develops a stochastic model for comparing payments to U.S. corn producers under the U.S. Senate’s Average Crop Revenue Program (ACR) versus payments under the price-based marketing loan benefit and countercyclical payment programs. Using this model, the paper examines the sensitivity of the density function for payments to changes in expected price levels. We also assess the impact of the choice of yield aggregation used in the ACR payment rate on the mean and variance of farm returns. We find that ACR payments lower the producer’s coefficient of variation of total revenue more than does the price-based support, although ACR may not raise mean revenue as much. While corn farmers in the heartland states might still prefer to receive the...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Domestic support; Counter-cyclical payments; Revenue; Price; Corn; Yield; Pairs bootstrap; Kernel density; Combinatorial optimization; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49864

Estimating the Costs of Revenue Deficiency Programs
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cooper,   Joseph C.
This paper develops an approach to empirically demonstrate how the within-season distribution of U.S. domestic commodity support for corn differs between current-style approaches of support and revenue-based support. From a purely economic standpoint, the results show the revenue-based payment scenarios to be preferable at the national level to the uncoordinated forms of support currently in use, even in a situation where the annual mean payments are set equal across the support scenarios. For revenue-based support, the variability around the total expected annual payment is lower, and perhaps more importantly, the probability of high payments is lower. These results suggest advantages to this type of support, both in terms of lower budgetary uncertainty –...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Domestic support; Marketing loan benefits; Counter-cyclical payments; Disaster assistance; Revenue support; Corn; Nonparametric; Semi-nonparametric; Bootstrap; Financial Economics.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9699

Economic Analysis of Base Acre and Payment Yield Designations Under the 2002 U.S. Farm Act
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Young,   C. Edwin; Skully,   David W.; Westcott,   Paul C.; Hoffman,   Linwood A.
The 2002 Farm Act provided farmland owners the opportunity to update commodity program base acres and payment yields used for calculating selected program benefits. Findings in this report suggest that farmland owners responded to economic incentives in these decisions, selecting those options for designating base acres that resulted in the greatest expected flow of program payments. Decisions of farmland owners in South Dakota, in upland cotton area, and in the Heartland region support the payment-maximization argument. In general, landowners favored maximizing payments over aligning base acres to current or recent plantings. Farmland owners with high-payment base acres, such as rice and cotton, held on to these base acres and, whenever possible, expanded...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Base; 2002 Farm Act; Direct payments; Counter-cyclical payments; Production flexibility contract payments; Base acres; Program yields; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33594

Risk Considerations in Supply Response: Implications for Counter-Cyclical Payments' Production Impact
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lin,   William W.; Dismukes,   Robert.
This study investigates the role of risk in farmers' acreage decisions in the Northcentral region by revisiting an earlier study by Chavas and Holt and tests the null hypothesis regadring the effects of wealth and draw out implications for farmers' risk attitudes.  Estimated model results are used to examine counter-cyclical payments' production impact for major field crops.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Supply response; Marketing loan programs; Counter-cyclical payments; Northcentral region; Corn; Soybeans; Wheat; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19304

U.S. Cotton Subsidies: Drawing a Fine Line on the Degree of Decoupling
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rossi,   Frederick J.; Schmitz,   Andrew; Schmitz,   Troy G.
The impact of the U.S. cotton policy depends on several interrelated factors; how input subsidies interact with producer price supports, producer price expectations, and the extent to which price supports are decoupled from production. Cotton subsidies have a direct impact on world cotton prices, depending on the extent to which price supports are coupled to production. At one extreme, there is a price impact of 12.4% when producers make decisions at the loan rate, but the average price impact is 20.9% when producers make decisions based on the target price. Results are presented for intermediate cases of decoupling.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Cotton; Counter-cyclical payments; Decoupling; Loan rate; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Q17; Q18; Q25; Q28.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6621

A Revenue-Based Alternative to the Counter-Cyclical Payment Program
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cooper,   Joseph C.
This paper develops a stochastic model for comparing payments to U.S. corn producers of a revenue-based counter-cyclical payment (R-CCP) that is offered as an alternative in the 2007 House "Farm Bill" (H.R. 2419) to the current price-based CCP (P-CCP). We minimize the potential for miss-specification bias in the model by using nonparametric and semi-nonparametric approaches as specification checks in the model. Using this model, the paper examines the sensitivity of the density function for payments to changes in expected price levels. A mean-variance utility function approach is used to assess producer preferences for choice of CCP program alternative. The results show that as risk reduction instruments at the farm level, there appears to be little...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Domestic support; Counter-cyclical payments; Revenue; Price; Corn; Yield; Pairs bootstrap; Kernel density; Semi-nonparametric; Combinatorial optimization; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6197

ACRE: A Revenue-Based Alternative to Price-Based Commodity Payment Programs
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cooper,   Joseph C.
This paper develops a stochastic model for estimating the probability density function of the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE), a revenue-based commodity support payment that is offered under the 2008 Farm Act as an alternative to the traditional suite of price-based commodity payments, that is, marketing loan benefits and counter-cyclical payments.  We minimize the potential for miss-specification bias in the model by using nonparametric and semi-nonparametric approaches as specification checks in the model. Our simulation results show that adding ACRE revenue payments to gross revenue reduced the downside risk in revenue for corn, wheat, and soybean farmers in 2009 in the four locations examined, with reductions ranging from 4% to 25%.   Integrating...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Domestic support; Average crop revenue election; Loan deficiency payments; Counter-cyclical payments; Revenue; Price; Corn; Yield; Pairs bootstrap; Kernel density; Semi-nonparametric; Combinatorial optimization; Negative exponential utility function; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49180