Consulta: subjectFacets:"Crop Insurance"
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Evaluating Yield Models for Crop Insurance Rating
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lanoue,   Christopher; Sherrick,   Bruce J.; Woodard,   Joshua D.; Paulson,   Nicholas D.
Generated crop insurance rates depend critically on the distributional assumptions of the underlying crop yield loss model. Using farm level corn yield data from 1972-2008, we revisit the problem of examining in-sample goodness-of-fit measures across a set of flexible parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric distributions. Simulations are also conducted to investigate the out-of-sample efficiency properties of several competing distributions. The results indicate that more parameterized distributional forms fit the data better in-sample due to the fact that they have more parameters, but are generally less efficient out-of-sample–and in some cases more biased–than more parsimonious forms which also fit the data adequately, such as the Weibull. The...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Yield distributions; Crop Insurance; Weibull Distribution; Beta Distribution; Mixture Distribution; Out-of-Sample Efficiency; Goodness-of-Fit; Insurance Rating Efficiency; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61761

Modeling Yield Risk Under Technological Change: Dynamic Yield Distribution and the U.S Crop Insurance Program
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zhu,   Ying; Goodwin,   Barry K.; Ghosh,   Sujit K.
The objective of this study is to evaluate and model the yield risk associated with major agricultural commodities in the U.S. We are particularly concerned with the nonstationary nature of the yield distribution, which primarily arises because of technological progress and changing environmental conditions. Precise risk assessment depends on the accuracy of modeling this distribution. This problem becomes more challenging as the yield distribution changes over time, a condition that holds for nearly all major crops. A common approach to this problem is based on a two-stage method in which the yield is first detrended and then the estimated residuals are treated as observed data and modeled using various parametric or nonparametric methods. We propose an...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Crop Insurance; Model Comparison; Time-Varying Distribution; Financial Economics.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/102048

Does Crop Insurance Reduce the Need for Cash Reserves in Savings Accounts?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Raulston,   J. Marc; Richardson,   James W.; Outlaw,   Joe L.; Knapek,   George M.
One of the most fundamental and traditional risk management tools available to agricultural producers is a savings account. Cash reserves in savings provide a safety net for producers, allowing financial obligations and living expenses to be met when unexpected shortfalls in income occur. Crop insurance, another risk management tool, likely reduces the cash reserves required to be held in savings as it aids in mitigating risks ranging from total disasters to uncertainties in market conditions.  This study utilizes a stochastic farm level simulation model in a representative farm framework to evaluate the impacts of alternative crop insurance scenarios on levels of savings necessary to maintain target ending cash reserve numbers for producers in major...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Insurance; Multiple Peril Crop Insurance; Crop Revenue Coverage; Stochastic Simulation; Representative Farm; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56413

Efficient Estimation of Copula Mixture Model: An Application to the Rating of Crop Revenue Insurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ghosh,   Somali; Woodard,   Joshua D.; Vedenov,   Dmitry V.
The association between prices and yields are of paramount importance to the crop insurance programs. Proper estimation of the association is highly desirable. Copulas are one such method to measure the dependence structure.  Five single parametric copulas, a non- parametric copula and their fifteen different combinations taking a mixture of two different copulas at a time have been used in the crop insurance rating analysis. Using data of corn from 1973-2009 for 602 counties in the Mid-West area two different efficient methods have been proposed to generate the optimal mixtures using the cross validation approach. A resampling technique is used to check for the significance of the expected indemnities.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Copulas; Crop Insurance; Cross-Validation; Empirical distribution; GRIP; Indemnities; Out-Of-Sample Log-Likelihood; Agricultural Finance; Q14.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103738

Crop Insurance, Disaster Payments, and Incentives for Land Use Change in Agriculture:  A Preliminary Assessment
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Carriazo,   Fernando; Claassen,   Roger; Cooper,   Joseph C.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Insurance; Disaster Payments; Supplemental Revenue Assistance; Corn; Wheat; Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49218

The Impact of Crop Insurance on the Economic Performance of Hungarian Cropping Farms
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sporri,   Martina; Baráth,   Lajos; Bokusheva,   Raushan; Ferto,   Imre.
Crop insurance products can improve and stabilize economic performance. However, due to insurance market imperfections, the use of insurance products often requires governmental support. This paper analyses the actual impact of insurance products on the economic performance of cropping farms by linking the economic performance model with the insurance demand model. For this analysis, a simultaneous equation system is solved. Our estimations show a negative impact of insurance on the economic performance indicators farm profit, labour productivity and land productivity. The analysis of the insurance demand side confirms financial limitations of many farms.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Hungary; Crop Insurance; 2SCML; Impact evaluation; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q14; G22.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122525

Measurement of Yield distribution: A Time-Varying Distribution Model
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Yang,   Tsung Yu.
Regarding the nature of yield data, there are two basic characteristics that need to be accommodated while we are about to model a yield distribution. The first one is the nonstationary nature of the yield distribution, which causes the heteroscedasticity related problems. The second one is the left skewness of the yield distribution. A common approach to this problem is based on a two-stage method in which the yields are detrended first and the detrended yields are taken as observed data modeled by various parametric and nonparametric methods. Based on a two-stage estimation structure, a mixed normal distribution seems to better capture the secondary distribution from catastrophic years than a Beta distribution. The implication to the risk management is...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Time-Varying Distribution; Mixture Distribution; Crop Insurance; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103422

The Impact of Weather Cycles and Crop Yield Autocorrelation on Crop Insurance Yield Guarantees
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Adhikari,   Shyam; Belasco,   Eric J.; Knight,   Thomas O.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Yield Modeling; Crop Insurance; Weather Cycle; Crop Yield Autocorrelation; Agricultural Finance; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103724

A Mixed Effects Model of Crop Yields for Purposes of Premium Determination
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Roberts,   Michael J.; Tack,   Jesse B.
Farm income is highly variable due to annual price and yield uncertainties. The federally subsidized crop insurance program is an important tool for managing this risk, and has grown from a relatively modest program to one that encompasses the majority of productive cropland in the country. The success of this program depends on identification of actuarially fair insurance premium rates, which in turn depends on accurate estimation of farm-level yield distributions. We use the confidential U.S. Department of Agriculture Risk Management Agency (RMA) panel dataset to estimate farm-specific distributions of yields and actually fair crop insurance premiums. Our ongoing work includes using the difference between our estimated actually fair premiums and RMA's to...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Yield; Crop Insurance; Policy; Mixed Model; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103405

YIELD GUARANTEES AND THE PRODUCER WELFARE BENEFITS OF CROP INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Adhikari,   Shyam; Knight,   Thomas O.; Belasco,   Eric J.
Crop yield and revenue insurance products with coverage based on actual production history (APH) yields dominate the U.S. Federal Crop Insurance Program. The APH yield, which plays a critical role in determining the coverage offered to producers, is based on a small sample of historical yields for the insured unit. The properties of this yield measure are critical in determining the value of the insurance to producers. Sampling error in APH yields has the potential to lead to over-insurance in some years and under-insurance in other years. Premiums, which are in part determined by the ratio of the APH yield to the county reference yield, are also affected by variations in APH yields. Congress has enacted two measures, yield substitution and yield floors,...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Actual Production History; Crop Insurance; Sampling Error; Yield Guarantee; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61476

Modeling Dependence in the Design of Whole Farm---A Copula-Based Model Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zhu,   Ying; Ghosh,   Sujit K.; Goodwin,   Barry K.
The objective of this study is to evaluate and model the risks of corn and soybean production. This study focuses on the risk of revenue variability that arises from changes in prices, yields shortfalls or both. There are several models for price and yield risk factors for corn and  soybeans. For instance, yield risks can be modeled by a family of Beta distributions, whereas price shocks can be modeled by log-normal distributions. In order to develop a multivariate model that preserves a given set of marginals, a copula approach can be used to characterize  the joint yield and price risk of corn and soybeans, which are usually highly correlated. The copula approach has been spurred by the recent developments in the whole farm insurance (WFI), resulting in...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Copula; Crop Insurance; Loss Distribution; Farm Management.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6282

Should Basic Underwriting Rules be Applied to Average Crop Revenue Election and Supplemental Revenue?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Barnaby,   Glenn Arthur, Jr.
This paper considers methods to adversely select on Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) and Supplemental Revenue (SURE). In the case of winter wheat, farmers had a large amount of a priori yield and price information before electing 2009 ACRE. Prior to the August 14 sign-up for ACRE, wheat was 3 months into the marketing year. In most years nearly half of the national average price is determined in the first 3 months of the marketing year. With this available information it was clear that Oklahoma, Texas, and Washington wheat would collect the maximum or near the maximum ACRE payment, while there was little chance that ACRE would pay on Colorado wheat.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Adverse Selection; Average Crop Revenue Election; Crop Insurance; Supplemental Revenue; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Political Economy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q18.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92590

OPTIONAL UNIT POLICY IN CROP INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Shaik,   Saleem; Atwood,   Joseph A.
Utilizing ordered logit we examine the presence of two kinds of asymmetric information-adverse selection (intertemporal variability) and moral hazard (interspatial and/or residual variability) as revealed by the choice of optional units in Federal crop insurance utilizing Risk Management Agency's 1996-2000 cotton yield and loss data files.  Further, a tobit model is estimated to examine the factors explaining the loss cost ratio from Risk Management Agency perspective.  Potential costs of adverse selection and/or moral hazard in optional unit provision are estimated to be as high as $180 million in US cotton over the 1996-2000 period.  Keywords:  Adverse Selection, Moral Hazard, Optional Unit Policy, Crop Insurance, U.S. Cotton, Logit and Tobit models.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Adverse Selection; Moral Hazard; Optional Unit Policy; Crop Insurance; U.S. Cotton; Logit and Tobit models.; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19741

Evaluation of Crop Insurance Yield Guarantees and Producer Welfare with Upward Trending Yields
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Adhikari,   Shyam; Knight,   Thomas O.; Belasco,   Eric J.
Actual Production History (APH) yields play a critical role in determining the coverage offered to producers by the Risk Management Agency’s (RMA) Yield Protection, Revenue Protection, and Revenue Protection-Harvest Price Exclusion crop insurance products. The RMA currently uses the simple average of from 4 to 10 years of historical yields to determine the APH yield guarantee. If crop yields are trending upward, use of a simple average of historical yields introduces bias into the insurance offering.  Using both county and individual insured unit data, we examine the producer impact of APH yield trends for Texas cotton and Illinois corn. Our findings indicate that biases due to using simple average APH yields when yields are trending upward reduce the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Actual Production History; Crop Insurance; Yield Trend; Yield Guarantee; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98855

Impacts of Weather and Time Horizon Selection on Crop Insurance Ratemaking: A Conditional Distribution Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Woodard,   Joshua D.
An important issue in the agricultural actuarial literature is the extent to which sample period selection affects the accuracy of insurance rating. A conditional Weibull distribution approach is developed which explicitly models the interaction of weather, technology, and other variables on probabilistic yield outcomes to address this issue. Results from an application with an extensive producer-level yield dataset representing commercial-scale Illinois firms suggest that the impact of weather heterogeneity on risk estimation across reasonable samples is likely not as great as is often claimed. The results also suggest that yield risk is decreasing significantly through time, and indicate the presence of trend acceleration. A rating analysis indicates...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Conditional Weibull Distribution; Conditional Production Function; Catastrophic Risk Modeling; Sample Selection; Yield Risk; Crop Insurance; Ratemaking; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103929

RISK MANAGEMENT THROUGH INSURANCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL EXTERNALITIES FROM AGRICULTURAL INPUT USE: AN ITALIAN CASE STUDY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Capitanio,   Fabian.
The biological nature of agricultural production processes induce a higher degree of uncertainty surrounding the economic performance of farm enterprises. This has contributed to the development and acceptance of forms of public intervention aimed at reducing income variability that have no parallel in other sectors of the economy. In particular, subsidized crop insurance are a widely used tool. The impact of these programs on the decisions of production generates effects on input use, land use and thus, indirectly, environmental outcomes. The importance of this issue has grown in parallel with the growth in importance of the collective role of agriculture sector that has addressed the recent guidelines adopted by many developed countries. To examine the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Risk Management; Crop Insurance; Input Use Decisions; Environmental Externalities; Mathematical Programming.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; Q10; Q14.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44834

STRUCTURAL MODELS OF AREA YIELD CROP INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramaswami,   Bharat; Roe,   Terry L.
Earlier analyses of area yield crop insurance schemes used a reduced form linear relationship between individual and area yield.  However, without knowledge of the structural framework, the analysis and design of alternative schemes is problematic.  This paper resolves this problem.  The paper characterizes the entire class of structural models equivalent to the reduced form.  As a result, the beta, the slope coefficient of the reduced form is expressed as a function of structural parameters.  Second, the structural model is used to analyze the relation between the aggregation (that determines area yields) and the risk reduction due to area yield insurance.  Third, we consider optimal area yield insurance for an important class of structural models not...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Area Yield; Beta; Crop Insurance; Systemic Risks; Risk and Uncertainty; G22; Q14.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20638

Role of Panel Analysis in Identifying Asymmetric Information with Optional Unit Provision in Federal Crop Insurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Shaik,   Saleem.
This paper has a two-fold contribution, first we demonstrate the relationship of spatial, temporal and residual yield risk estimated from a two-way panel random effects model to asymmetric information with an optional unit provision in the federal crop insurance program. Second, the yield risk components are incorporated in a discrete choice model to examine the presence of asymmetric information due to potential yield switching with optional unit provisions. Empirical application to 1998 U.S. cotton crop insurance data reveals the presence of asymmetric information with optional unit provisions.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Adverse Selection; Moral Hazard; Optional Unit Policy; Crop Insurance; U.S. Cotton; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; D82; G22; Q10.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54983

CROP INSURANCE AND THE FUTURE FARM SAFETY NET
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Collins,   Keith J.; Bulut,   Harun.
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Crop Insurance; Farm bill; Farm Programs; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q18.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120007

Reduction of Yield and Income Risk Under Alternative Crop Insurance and Disaster Assistance Plans
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Carriker,   Gordon L.; Williams,   Jeffery R.; Barnaby,   Glenn Arthur, Jr.; Black,   J. Roy.
This study compares the effectiveness of five crop insurance/disaster assistance plans: an individual farm yield insurance plan similar to the current FCIC multi-peril program ; two area yield insurance plans; a farm yield disaster assistance plan; and an area yield disaster assistance plan. These methods are examined for reduction in yield and gross income variability with and without participation in the government deficiency payment programs using farm-level yield data from 98 dryland wheat farms and 38 dryland corn farms in Kansas . Although individual farm yield insurance is complex, suffers from moral hazard and adverse selection problems, and is likely to be the most expensive to administer , it provides more yield and gross income risk reduction...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Crop Insurance; Crop Disaster Assistance; Risk; Wheat; Corn; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1990
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118191