Consulta: subjectFacets:"Dynamic programming"
Registros recuperados: 33
Data/hora: 13/06/2024 10:01:00

Dynamic Time Warping of Paleomagnetic Secular Variation Data
Provedor de dados: 5
Autores: Hagen, Cedric J; Reilly, Brendan T; Stoner, Joseph S; Creveling, Jessica R.
We present and make publicly available a dynamic programming algorithm to simultaneously align the inclination and declination vector directions of sedimentary paleomagnetic secular variation data.This algorithmgenerates a library of possible alignments through the systematic variation of assumptions about the relative accumulation rate and shared temporal overlap of two or more time-series. The paleomagnetist can then evaluate this library of reproducible and objective alignments using available geologic constraints, statistical methods, and expert knowledge.We apply the algorithm to align previously (visually) correlated medium to high accumulation rate northern North Atlantic Holocene deposits (101– 102 cm/ka) with strong radiocarbon control. The...
Tipo: Text
Palavras-chave: Palaeomagnetic secular variation; Palaeomagnetism; Magnetostratigraphy; Dynamic programming; Statistical methods; Atlantic Ocean.
Ano: 2020
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00601/71322/69749.pdf

Trade-offs between conflicting animal welfare concerns and cow replacement strategy in out-wintering Scottish suckler herds
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Vosough Ahmadi,   Bouda; Morgan,   Colin A.; Stott,   Alistair W.
Since decoupling of the CAP, many Scottish suckler cow farms are facing financial difficulties. In response, many farmers are out-wintering extensively managed suckler cows to minimise production costs. These systems are of animal welfare concern. A range of trade-offs between animal welfare indicators and between animal welfare and farm profitability can be identified. A Dynamic Programming (DP) model was developed to study these trade-offs. Two herds were modelled assuming their feeding regimes were either low (LHERD) or high (HHERD). The objective of the DP was to maximise the expected net margin from a current cow and its successors over an infinite time horizon. Preliminary results showed that the rate of voluntary culling was higher in HHERD than in...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Beef cow; Economics; Dynamic programming; Animal welfare.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61122

VALUING AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Stokes,   Jeffrey R.; Brinch,   Brian M.
A model to value Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (Farmer Mac) agricultural mortgage-backed securities (AMBS) is developed and numerically solved.  The results suggest prepayment penalties currently being used by Farmer Mac reduce yields on AMBS considerably.  Even with prepayment penalties, it can be advantageous for profit maximizing mortgagors to optimally prepay or even default on agricultural mortgages.  The model is used to quantify prepayment and default risk by valuing the embedded options in the mortgages.  Monte Carlo simulation is also used to determine the probability to optimal prepayment given the term structure assumption used to develop the model.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural mortgage-backed securities; Default; Dynamic programming; Simulation; Prepayment; Agricultural Finance; G13; G21.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15459

On the Potential Use of Adaptive Control Methods for Improving Adaptive Natural Resource Management
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bond,   Craig A.
The paradigm of adaptive natural resource management (AM), in which experiments are used to learn about uncertain aspects of natural systems, is gaining prominence as the preferred technique for administration of large-scale environmental projects. To date, however, tools consistent with economic theory have yet to be used to either evaluate AM strategies or improve decision-making in this framework. Adaptive control (AC) techniques provide such an opportunity. This paper demonstrates the conceptual link between AC methods, the alternative treatment of realized information during a planning horizon, and AM practices; shows how the different assumptions about the treatment of observational information can be represented through alternative dynamic...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Adaptive control; Adaptive management; Dynamic programming; Value of experimentation; Value of information; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108721

Exploring long-term land improvements under land tenure insecurity
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Myyra,   Sami; Pietola,   Kyosti.
This article explores long-term land improvement (lime application) under land tenure insecurity on leased land. The dynamic optimisation problem is solved by a stochastic dynamic programming routine with known parameters for one-period returns and transition equations. The model parameters represent Finnish soil quality and production conditions. The farmer's decision rules are solved for alternative likelihood scenarios over the continuation of the fixed term lease contract. The results suggest that, as the probability for non-renewal of the lease contract increases, farmers quickly decrease investments in irreversible land improvement and, thereafter, yields decline gradually. The estimated decision rules are a part of larger set of farmer's decision...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Dynamic programming; Land tenure; Land improvements; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31954

Accounting for agronomic rotations in crop production: A theoretical investigation and an empirical modeling framework
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Carpentier,   Alain; Gohin,   Alexandre; Letort,   Elodie.
As far as crop acreage choices are concerned, a consensus seems to exist among agricultural scientists and extension agents: crop rotation effects and the related constraints are major determinants of farmers’ crop choices. Crop rotation effects are inherently dynamic. They are generally ignored in multicrop models with land as an allocable input found in the literature since most of these models are developed within a static framework. The aim of this paper is twofold (i) to propose a new approach and tools for investigating dynamic crop acreage choices accounting for crop rotation benefits and constraints and (ii) to illustrate the impacts of crop rotation effects and constraints on farmers’ acreage choices through simulation examples. The models...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop rotation; Dynamic programming; Acreage choice; Crop Production/Industries; Land Economics/Use; Q12; D21; D24; D92.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103431

Recursive Sustainability: Intertemporal Efficiency and Equity
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Knapp,   Keith C.
PV-optimality in a capital-resource economy can imply decreasing utility over some portion of the time horizon. Various criteria have been proposed to maintain intergenerational equity defined as nondeclining utility, but these have some limitations and problems. This paper proposes a new welfare criteria incorporating present value to maintain efficiency, and an equity function with convex costs on declining utility. This criterion is economically efficient, time-consistent and recursive. An extension of dynamic programming to multiple value functions is developed to solve this problem. Increasing the equity weight increasingly eliminates declining portions of utility time paths. Sustainability implies increasing consumption in the early time periods and...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Growth; Environment; Intergenerational equity; Dynamic programming; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21472

The value of market uncertainty in a livestock epidemic
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Niemi,   Jarkko K.; Lehtonen,   Heikki.
Introduction of foot and mouth disease (FMD) into country typically initiates eradication procedures which remove animals from the market, and halts the export of livestock products from the infected country. The magnitude of these effects can be highly uncertain. This paper presents a stochastic dynamic programming model which simulates possible market implications of alternative FMD and export scenarios in the Finnish pig sector. It takes into account dynamics and adjustment of the animal stock, price movements and uncertainty related to the duration of the trade ban.  Results suggest that losses to pig producers can increase considerably when the risk of prolonged export ban increases. Production adjustments also strengthen. Consumers can gain from a...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Livestock epidemics; Dynamic programming; Demand; Supply; Export; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6158

DEVELOPING FLEXIBLE ECONOMIC THRESHOLDS FOR PEST MANAGEMENT USING DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Harper,   Jayson K.; Mjelde,   James W.; Rister,   M. Edward; Way,   Michael O.; Drees,   Bastiaan M.
The rice stink bug is a major pest of rice in Texas, causing quality related damage.  The previous threshold used for assisting in rice stink bug spray decisions lacked flexibility in economic and production decision variables and neglected the dynamics of the pest population.  Using stochastic dynamic programming, flexible economic thresholds for the rice stink bug were generated.  The new thresholds offer several advantages over the old, static thresholds, including increased net returns, incorporation of pest dynamics, user flexibility, ease of implementation, and a systematic process for updating.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Economic thresholds; Dynamic programming; Pest management; Rice; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 1994
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15411

Tipping Points and Ambiguity in the Economics of Climate Change
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lemoine,   Derek M.; Traeger,   Christian P.
Replaced with revised version of paper Feb 13, 2012 available at http://purl.umn.edu/120349
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Threshold; Climate; Integrated assessment; Regime shift; Ambiguity; Uncertainty; Dynamic programming; Social cost of carbon; Tipping point; Carbon tax; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q54; D90; D81.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98127

Tipping points and ambiguity in the economics of climate change
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lemoine,   Derek M.; Traeger,   Christian P.
Replaces CUDARE Working Paper no. 1111, with the title; Tipping Points and Ambiguity in the Integrated Assessment of Climate Change, issued 12-26-2010
Tipo: Working Paper
Palavras-chave: Tipping point; Threshold; Regime shift; Ambiguity; Climate; Uncertainty; Integrated assessment; Dynamic programming; Social cost of carbon; Carbon tax; Political Economy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q54; D90; D81.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120349

Investment planning under uncertainty and flexibility: the case of a purchasable sales contract
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Musshoff,   Oliver; Hirschauer,   Norbert.
Investment decisions are not only characterised by irreversibility and uncertainty but also by flexibility with regard to the timing of the investment. This paper describes how stochastic simulation can be successfully integrated into a backward recursive programming approach in the context of flexible investment planning. We apply this hybrid approach to a marketing question from primary production which can be viewed as an investment problem: should grain farmers purchase sales contracts which guarantee fixed product prices over the next 10 years? The model results support the conclusion from dynamic investment theory that it is essential to take simultaneously account of uncertainty and flexibility.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Dynamic programming; Flexibility; Investment; Sales contract; Stochastic simulation; Uncertainty; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117741

Risk and Aversion in the Integrated Assessment of Climate Change
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Crost,   Benjamin; Traeger,   Christian P.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Climate change; Uncertainty; Integrated assessment; Risk aversion; Intertemporal substitution; Recursive utility; Dynamic programming; Risk and Uncertainty; Q54; Q00; D90; C63.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90935

Insure or Invest in Green Technologies to Protect Against Adverse Weather Events?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pietola,   Kyosti; Myyra,   Sami; Niemi,   Jarkko K.; Van Asseldonk,   Marcel A.P.M.
This paper analyses investments in green technologies when insurance is also an option. Green technologies are defined to have the power to increase productivity and decrease volatility of future revenues. The insurance options involve the scale and coverage either in a yield insurance or in an index insurance. The stochastic process is a combination of insurable stationary short-run process and non-stationary long run process. The optimal decision rules are solved numerically by stochastic dynamic programming. The results suggest that the index insurance maintains market based incentives to invest in green technologies whereas a yield insurance substantially decreases investments, as expected. An actuarially fair yield insurance decreases investments at...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Investment; Insurance; Uncertainty; Dynamic programming; Green technology; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100738

Optimisation of policy interventions in environmental quota
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Buysse,   Jeroen; Van der Straeten,   Bart; Nolte,   Stephan; Claeys,   Dakerlia; Lauwers,   Ludwig H.; Van Huylenbroeck,   Guido.
The paper analyses the governance choices in production quota with the Flemish nutrient production rights as a case. A static model of quota trade in the short run shows the inefficiency of discrete non-auctioned trade with fixed transaction costs. This model also shows that an obligation to quota sellers to stop their production stimulates structural change. A dynamic model of trade indicates that the measures taken to prevent speculative behaviour causes inefficiencies and stimulates overuse of quota if the penalties are too low. Finally, the dynamic model indicates that a flat rate reduction on traded quota combined with too low penalties for overuse stimulate the total production.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Production rights; Quota; Dynamic programming; Transaction costs; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61084

Die Berücksichtigung von Unsicherheit und Flexibilität in der Investitionsplanung – dargestellt am Beispiel einer Vertragsinvestition für Roggen
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Musshoff,   Oliver; Hirschauer,   Norbert.
Investment decisions are, as a rule, characterized by uncertainty, irreversibility and flexibility. Simple net present value calculations will not account for these features. In many situations even flexible investment planning with decision trees, which represents the most advanced method of traditional investment appraisal, does not have the capacity to solve practical decision problems adequately. One handicap is a realistic and manageable representation of stochastic variables. It has long been known that stochastic simulation procedures offer a nearly unlimited capacity to represent distributions and stochastic processes. However, a standard simulation will not allow for the consideration of flexibility. The problem is that with a simple forward...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Investment; Uncertainty; Flexibility; Stochastic simulation; Dynamic programming; Sales contracts with fixed prices; Farm Management; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97437

Using Numerical Dynamic Programming to Compare Passive and Active Learning in the Adaptive Management of Nutrients in Shallow Lakes
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bond,   Craig A.; Loomis,   John B.
This paper illustrates the use of dual/adaptive control methods to compare passive and active adaptive management decisions in the context of an ecosystem with a threshold effect. Using discrete-time dynamic programming techniques, we model optimal phosphorus loadings under both uncertainty about natural loadings and uncertainty regarding the critical level of phosphorus concentrations beyond which nutrient recycling begins. Active management is modeled by including the anticipated value of information (or learning) in the structure of the problem, and thus the agent can perturb the system (experiment), update beliefs, and learn about the uncertain parameter. Using this formulation, we define and value optimal experimentation both ex ante and ex post. Our...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Adaptive control; Adaptive management; Dynamic programming; Value of experimentation; Value of information; Nonpoint source pollution; Learning; Decisions under uncertainty; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108720

A Dynamic Optimisation Model of Weed Control
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cacho,   Oscar J.; Jones,   Randall E.
It is argued in this paper that static approaches to weed management, where the benefits and costs are only considered within a single season, are inappropriate for assessing the economic benefits of weed control technologies. There are carryover effects from weed management as weeds that escape control in one season may reproduce and replenish weed populations in following seasons. Consequently, it is appropriate to view weed control in the context of a resource management problem where the goal is to determine the optimal inter-temporal level of weed control that maximises economic benefits over some pre-determined period of time. A dynamic optimisation model for weed control is presented. Using the tools of comparative static analysis and Pontryagin's...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Weed control; Resource economics; Optimal control; Dynamic programming; Wild oats; Farm Management.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12902

MODELLING THE DYNAMICS OF PRODUCTION ADJUSTMENT TO SHORT-TERM MARKET SHOCKS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Niemi,   Jarkko K.; Lehtonen,   Heikki.
Models of agricultural economics typically operate at an annual basis or in a static equilibrium framework where inputs, outputs and their prices may change considerably. Production dynamics, however, imply that models relying on spatial and temporal aggregation do not capture the effects of biological constraints in the short run. This paper examines short and long-term impacts of demand and production cost shocks in the pig sector. The analysis is carried out with a dynamic programming model which takes into account changes in export and domestic demand and market clearing price. It optimizes the supply of piglets on a monthly basis. Econometric techniques are used to estimate demand functions. Short-term negative market shocks can already have...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Pig; Demand; Dynamic programming; Export; Livestock epidemics; Price; Supply; Demand and Price Analysis; Livestock Production/Industries; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6401

LONG-TERM PLANNING OF A LIVESTOCK-CROP FARM UNDER GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kouka,   Pierre-Justin; Duffy,   Patricia A.; Taylor,   C. Robert.
Optimal crop and livestock mix was determined for a representative Alabama farm using a dynamic programming model.  Results indicate that decisions concerning livestock production are highly influenced by the amount of cotton base available on the farm.  In most cases, increasing cotton base results in less cattle production.  The triple base provisions of the 1990 Farm Bill, however, may give some cotton farmers an incentive to produce more stocker cattle during the winter months.  Research results also indicate that the availability of farm programs can alter the optimal enterprise mix on a farm with no beginning base in cotton.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm programs; Dynamic programming; Livestock; Farm Management.
Ano: 1994
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15407

An Incentive System for Salmonella Control in the Pork Supply Chain
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Backus,   Ge B.C.; King,   Robert P.
This paper presents a dynamic principal-agent analysis of an incentive system for Salmonella control in the pork supply chain. The incentive system determines quality premiums to the producer, testing frequencies for hogs delivered, as well as charges to the producer for testing and penalties. Using cost estimates and technical parameters, we evaluate the cost effectiveness of plant and farm control measures and trade-offs between prevalence reduction and related costs and gains. We also assess the impact of ownership structure on incentive system parameters and performance for a wide range of prevalence threshold levels. Differences in control actions, bacteriological prevalence and the overall welfare gain for the chain are very small across ownership...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Dynamic programming; Food quality; Principal-agent; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9941

An Economic Analysis of Water Infrastructure Investments, Agricultural Productivity and Climate Change in the Mekong Delta: Adapting to Increased Salinity and Sea Level Rise
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Corderi Novoa,   David; Williams,   Jeffrey C.; Howitt,   Richard E.; Lund,   Jay R.
Replaced with revised version of paper 07/24/11.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Climate change; Adaptation; Agriculture; Water resources; Dynamic programming; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Development; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Q54; Q25; Q15.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103875

Dynamics of Phosphorus Fertilization and Liming Under Land Tenure Insecurity
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Myyra,   Sami; Pietola,   Kyosti.
This article solves and characterizes optimal decision rules to invest in irreversible land improvements conditional on land tenure insecurity.  Economic model is a normative dynamic programming model with known parameter for the one period returns and transition equations.  The decision rules are solved numerically conditional on alternative scenarios on the likelihood that the lease contract and, thus, farmer access to land is either renewed or expires.  The model parameters represent Finnish soil quality and production conditions.  The results suggest that irreversible land improvements decrease quickly and the yields decline gradually when the farmer is confronted with land tenure insecurity caused by uncertain renewal of the lease contract.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Dynamic programming; Land Economics/Use; Q15; Q21.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24633

Bioeconomic meta-modelling of Indonesian agroforests as carbon sinks
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wise,   Russell M.; Cacho,   Oscar J.
In many areas of developing countries, economic and institutional factors often combine to give farmers incentives to clear forests and repeatedly plant food crops without sufficiently replenishing the soils. These activities lead to large-scale land degradation and contribute to global warming through the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. We investigate whether agroforestry systems might alleviate these trends when carbon-credit payments are available under the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol. A meta-modelling framework is adopted, comprising an econometric-production model of a smallholding in Sumatra. The model is used within a dynamic-programming algorithm to determine optimal combinations of tree/crop area,...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Bio-economic meta-modelling; Indonesia; Agroforestry; Carbon credits; Dynamic programming; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6772

Sustainability, Externalities and Economics: The Case of Temperate Perennial Grazing Systems in NSW
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jones,   Randall E.; Dowling,   Peter.
The replacement of perennial grass species by undesirable annual grass weeds not only results in lower productivity but is also contributes to a range of external costs. In particular, shallow rooted annuals result in greater deep drainage and therefore a greater potential for salinity, and greater volumes of runoff of poor quality water to streams. In this paper an economic framework for examining the sustainability issues of a perennial grazing system on the NSW Central Tablelands is presented. This involves a combination of simulation and dynamic programming models, with the state of the system represented by variables for the perennial grass composition and soil fertility. The paper examines a range of management strategies that increase the perennial...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Perennial pasture; Sustainability; Externalities; Bioeconomic modelling; Dynamic programming; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; 160.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42504

Ground Water Quantity and Quality Management: Agricultural Production and Aquifer Salinization over Long Time Scales
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Knapp,   Keith C.; Baerenklau,   Kenneth A.
An economic model of ground water salinization is developed. Starting from a full, high-quality aquifer, there is an initial extraction period, an intermediate waste disposal period, and a final drainage period. Drainage management is initially source control and reuse, but eventually culminates in evaporation basins and a system steady-state. This process occurs over long time scales but is consistent with historical observation. Efficiency is qualitatively similar to common property though quantitative magnitudes differ substantially. Regulatory pricing instruments are developed to support the efficient allocation. The system is not sustainable in that net returns generally decline through time until the steady-state.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Common property; Dynamic programming; Efficiency; Ground water; Irrigation; Salinity; Sustainability; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8633

Market implications of FMD epidemics in the Finnish pig sector: Does market structure matter?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Niemi,   Jarkko K.; Lehtonen,   Heikki; Lyytikainen,   Tapani; Kallio,   E.
This paper examines the role of market coordination and market distortions caused by a hypothetical FMD outbreak in the Finnish pig sector. By using stochastic dynamic programming, it simulates the consequences of two outbreak scenarios (large vs. small) under two distinct market regimes (competitive market vs. monopoly in the domestic supply). Simulated losses depend on the magnitude of outbreak and expected duration of possible turndown of meat exports, whereas market regime has a limited impact.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Foreign trade; Livestock epidemics; Dynamic programming; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43837

Economic cost of environmental flows in an unregulated river system
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jones,   Randall E.; Crean,   Jason; Aluwihare,   Parakrama B.; Letcher,   Rebecca A.
This paper applies a stochastic dynamic programming framework, incorporating links to hydrological and biophysical models, to assess the economic costs of environmental flows in an unregulated river system in the Namoi Valley of northern New South Wales, Australia. Structural adjustment decisions are included in the model to account for farmer responses to changes in environmental flows through the introduction of a water sharing plan. The results of the analysis indicate that the proposed level of environmental flows reduces water extractions by around 6 per cent, and imposes an opportunity cost of less than 1 per cent in terms of reduced net income over a 20-year period.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Dynamic programming; Environmental flows; Irrigation; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118334

WATER MANAGEMENT IN BANGLADESH AGRICULTURE: OPTIMAL USE AND INVESTMENT POLICIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Khan,   Mohammad Ismail.
In Bangladesh, climatic change is likely to impact significantly upon surface and groundwater availability, as well as in other countries. The population of Bangladesh is projected to be double the current 2010 level by 2050. Demand for water will rise with the increasing demand for rice. This paper considers the optimal demand management of irrigation water with stochastic supply under climate change for a 3-year planning horizon. It also identifies the utilization of irrigation water from surface water sources to maximize the expected net social return from rice production. This is done by considering decision on dam release for rice production with reference to climate change. A stochastic dynamic programming model is developed for analyzing the levels...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Climate change; Dam release; Dynamic programming; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100571

Dynamically Optimal Phosphorus Management and  Agricultural Water Protection
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Iho,   Antti; Laukkanen,   Marita.
This paper puts forward a model of the role of phosphorus in crop production, soil phosphorus dynamics and phosphorus loading that integrates the salient economic and ecological features of agricultural phosphorus management. The model accounts for the links between phosphorus fertilization, crop yield, accumulation of soil phosphorus reserves, and phosphorus loading. It can be used to guide precision phosphorus management and erosion control as means to mitigate agricultural loading. Using a parameterization for cereal production in southern Finland, the model is solved numerically to analyze the intertemporally optimal combination of fertilization and erosion control and the associated soil phosphorus development. The optimal fertilizer application rate...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Precision nutrient management; Agricultural phosphorus loading; Cereal production; Soil phosphorus reserves; Agricultural water pollution; Dynamic programming; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54285

Farmers' Exit Decisions and Early Retirement Programs in Finland
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pietola,   Kyosti; Vare,   Minna; Oude Lansink,   Alfons G.J.M.
This paper estimates farmer decisions between three discrete occupational choices: exit and close down the farming operation (1), exit and transfer the farm to a new entrant (2), or continue farming and retain the option to exit later on (3). The farmer optimisation problem is formulated as a recursive optimal stopping problem. The unknown parameters are first estimated by a switching-type, reduced form Probit models and, then by the Simulated maximum likelihood (SML) method, controlling for serial correlation in the errors. Serial correlation in the errors is controlled for by the Geweke-Hajivassiliou-Keane (GHK) simulation technique. The results suggest that the timing and the type of farmer exit decisions respond elastically to farmer characteristics,...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Exit; Entry; Dynamic programming; Switching-type Probit; Simulated Maximum Likelihood; Labor and Human Capital.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24825

Trade-offs between conflicting animal welfare concerns and cow replacement strategy in out-wintering Scottish suckler herds
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Vosough Ahmadi,   Bouda; Morgan,   Colin A.; Stott,   Alistair W.
Since decoupling of the CAP, many Scottish suckler cow farms are facing financial difficulties. In response, many farmers are out-wintering extensively managed suckler cows to minimise production costs. These systems are of animal welfare concern. A range of trade-offs between animal welfare indicators and between animal welfare and farm profitability can be identified. A Dynamic Programming (DP) model was developed to study these trade-offs. Two herds were modelled assuming their feeding regimes were either low (LHERD) or high (HHERD). The objective of the DP was to maximise the expected net margin from a current cow and its successors over an infinite time horizon. Preliminary results showed that the rate of voluntary culling was higher in HHERD than in...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Beef cow; Economics; Dynamic programming; Animal welfare; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51078

Risk Classification in Animal Disease Prevention: Who Benefits from Differentiated Policy?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Niemi,   Jarkko K.; Lyytikainen,   Tapani; Sahlstrom,   Leena; Virtanen,   Terhi; Lehtonen,   Heikki.
Risk classification of livestock farms can help stakeholders design and implement risk management measures according to the possessed risk. Our goal is to examine how differently pig farms may contribute to the societal costs of an animal disease outbreak, how valuable this information is to different stakeholders, and how it can be used to target risk management measures. We show that the costs of an outbreak starting from a certain farm can be quantified for the entire sector using bio-economic models. In further studies, this quantified risk can be differentiated so that farms and slaughterhouses internalise the full cost of risk in production decisions and inhibit animal densities, animal contact structures or other characteristics which pose a threat...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk classification; Animal disease; Simulation; Dynamic programming; Partial-equilibrium; Losses; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49307