Consulta: subjectFacets:"E32"
Registros recuperados: 16
Data/hora: 02/06/2024 13:04:59

A Note on Business Cycle Non-Linearity in U. S. Consumption
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cook,   Steven.
The recently examined durability-asymmetry hypothesis of Cook (1999) is re-evaluated using the diagnostic tests of time deformation proposed by Stock (1987, 1988). An application of these tests to disaggregated data on U.S. consumers’ expenditure provides further support for this hypothesis, with the findings given an economic interpretation in terms of variables evolving at differing speeds over different phases of the business cycle. Additionally, building upon the studies of Cover (1992), Karras (1996) and Rhee and Rich (1995), recent research by Arden et al. (2000) has shown the relaxation of the assumptions of linearity and symmetry typically employed in macroeconometric models to result in monetary policy having clear asymmetric effects on the...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Time deformation; Asymmetry; Non-linearity; Consumers’ expenditure; Consumer/Household Economics; C12; E32.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43990

Real Effects of Movements in Nominal Exchange Rates: Application to the Asian Crisis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Yelten,   E. Sibel.
This paper analyzes the ad hoc decision of three Asian countries to peg their currency to the U.S. dollar prior to the Asian crisis. It uses the Sjaastad model to estimate the optimal basket weights for Thailand, Korea, and Singapore. The analysis in this paper differs from the optimal basket research since we are not searching for an ad hoc optimal basket; rather, the basket is the solution to the problem. For Thailand and Korea, the correct weights of the dollar in the basket are estimated to be 44 and 65 percent, respectively, which differ significantly from the actual weight of 100 percent for the U.S. dollar in their currency basket prior to the 1997 Asian crisis. Singapore, with a weight of 85 percent for the U.S. currency, is closer to a dollar peg,...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Optimum currency area; Asian crisis; Exchange rate basket; Currency peg; Financial Economics; E32; F31.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43998

The influence of national economic development on the real estate market of Latvia
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Admidins,   Didzis; Zvanitajs,   Janis.
This article reviews the real estate market development dynamics over the last decade in Latvia. The article describes the influence of various economic factors on the real estate market. These factors are gross domestic product, unemployment, crediting amount, retail sales turnover, and others. The article provides insight into the most critical development periods of economy and property market in Latvia and explains their regularities.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Real estate market; Economic development; Economy of Latvia.; Public Economics; E32; L85.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94577

Non-Linearities and Fractional Integration in the US Unemployment Rate
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Caporale,   Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana,   Luis A.
This paper proposes a model of the US unemployment rate which accounts for both its asymmetry and its long memory. Our approach, based on the tests of Robinson (1994), introduces fractional integration and nonlinearities simultaneously into the same framework (unlike earlier studies employing a sequential procedure), using a Lagrange Multiplier procedure with a standard limit distribution. The empirical results suggest that the US unemployment rate can be specified in terms of a fractionally integrated process, which interacts with some non-linear functions of the labour demand variables (real oil prices and real interest rates). We also find evidence of a long-memory component. Our results are consistent with a hysteresis model with path dependency rather...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Unemployment; Asymmetries; Nonlinearities; Fractional Integration; Persistence; Long Memory; Labor and Human Capital; C32; E32.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26232

Exchange Rate and Output Dynamics Between Japan and Korea
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kang,   Sammo; Kim,   Soyoung; Wang,   Yunjong; Yoon,   Deok Ryong.
Japan and Korea are close countries in terms of economic interaction as well as geography. To quantify the impact of changes in the yen-dollar exchange rate on the Korean economy before and after the crisis in 1997, the sample period has been divided into two sub-periods and the causal relationships examined by using vector autoregression analysis. Our estimates show that while the response of Korean industrial production to changes in the yen-dollar exchange rate was not significant during the pre-crisis period, it became significant during the post-crisis period. The forecast error variance decomposition also confirms that the yen-dollar exchange rate shocks have almost negligible explanatory power with regards to Korean industrial production during the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade; E32; F36; F41.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26297

Aggregate and Farm-level Productivity Growth in Tobacco: Before and After the Quota Buyout
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kirwan,   Barrett E.; White,   T. Kirk; Uchida,   Shinsuke.
We examine the distortionary effects of agricultural policy on farm productivity by examining the response of U.S. tobacco farmers' productivity to the quota buyout of 2004. We isolate the impact of distortionary policy, i.e., the tobacco quota, by decomposing aggregate productivity growth into the contribution of farm-level productivity growth and the contribution of reallocation of resources among tobacco growers. Reallocation of resources includes entry into and exit from tobacco farming, as well as growth or decline of the resources allocated to existing tobacco farms. We find that aggregate productivity of Kentucky tobacco farms grew 37% between 2002 and 2007.  Reallocation of resources among continuing tobacco farms contributed 22 percentage points...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Tobacco; Quotas; Aggregate Productivity Growth; Re-allocation; Crop Production/Industries; Productivity Analysis; E32; L6; O47.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56353

On the Micro-Structure of the German Export Boom: Evidence from Establishment Panel Data, 1995 - 2002
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wagner,   Joachim.
This paper uses an unbalanced panel data set for exporting firms from manufacturing industries in one German federal state, Lower Saxony, to investigate the micro-structure of the recent export boom. Looking at data for 1995/96 to 2001/02 it is demonstrated that a considerable number of plants starts and stops exporting in each year, but that most of the export dynamics is due to positive and negative changes of exports in plants that continue to export. A small fraction made of four to five percent of all exporting plants is responsible for around 70 to 80 percent of the gross increase in exports. Firms with expanding and contracting exports are found simultaneously in all broad sectors, technology classes and firm size classes. Patterns of export...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Exports; Business cycle; Establishment panel data; International Relations/Trade; F14; E32.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26134

The evolution of land values in Italy. Does the influence of agricultural prices really matter?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mela,   Giulio; Longhitano,   Davide; Povellato,   Andrea.
Interest towards farmland market has been increasing in recent years. In developing countries there is rising concern about land being purchased by foreign investors, while in the developed world the debate is centred on whether agricultural factors are still the main determinants of land values or not. This work assesses the determinants of land values in Italy using panel data techniques during the time span 1992-2010. In Italy farmland values have historically been influenced more by natural characteristics of the land than agricultural prices. However, lately non-agricultural factors have been increasing their importance. We find that agricultural prices only slightly affect average land values in Italy. Main determinants of land prices are the yield...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farmland prices; Land market; Panel data models; Farmland values determinants; Risk and Uncertainty; C23; E32; Q24.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122479

Spatial Development
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Desmet,   Klaus; Rossi-Hansberg,   Esteban.
We present a theory of spatial development. A continuum of locations in a geographic area choose each period how much to innovate (if at all) in manufacturing and services. Locations can trade subject to transport costs and technology diffuses spatially across locations. The result is an endogenous growth theory that can shed light on the link between the evolution of economic activity over time and space. We apply the model to study the evolution of the U.S. economy in the last few decades and find that the model can generate the reduction in the employment share in manufacturing, the increase in service productivity in the second part of the 1990s, the increase in land rents in the same period, as well as several other spatial and temporal patterns.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Dynamic Spatial Models; Growth; Innovation; Land Rent Evolution; Structural Transformation; Technology Diffusion; Trade; Community/Rural/Urban Development; E32; O11; O18; O33; R12.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59852

On the Relevance of Open Market Operations
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Schabert,   Andreas.
This paper reexamines the role of open market operations for short-run effects of monetary policy. Money demand is induced by a cash constraint, while the central bank supplies money exclusively in exchange for securities, discounted with a short-run nominal interest rate. We consider a legal restriction for open market operations by which only government bonds are eligible, whereas private debt is not accepted as collateral for money. Supply of eligible securities is bounded by assuming fiscal policy to ensure government solvency. The model provides an endogenous liquidity premium on noneligible assets and liquidity effects of money supply shocks regardless whether prices are flexible or set in a staggered way. Nominal interest rate policy is always...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Inside Money; Liquidity Puzzle; Risk-free Rate Puzzle; Ricardian Fiscal Policy; Price Level and Equilibrium Determinacy; Financial Economics; E52; E32.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26344

El ciclo economico en el Peru
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Terrones Silva,   Marco; Calderon Melendez,   Cesar.
El estudio realiza una caracterización del ciclo económico en el Perú, usando información de los últimos cincuenta años. Se ha estudiado el comportamiento cíclico de los principales precios y agregados macroeconómico (reales y monetarios) de la economía peruana. Se encuentra que, a partir de 1978 y como resultado de la crisis derivada del problema de la deuda externa, la estructura del ciclo económico en el Perú experimenta un cambio, observándose una mayor volatilidad absoluta de la mayoría de precios y agregados macroeconómicos.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Ciclos economicos; Peru; Business cycles; Financial Economics; E32.
Ano: 1993
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42247

The World Economic Crisis and U.S. Agriculture: From Boom to Gloom?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Liefert,   William M.; Shane,   Mathew.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; International Relations/Trade; E32; F4; Q17.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94697

Income Effects on the Trade Balance in the United States: Analysis by Sector
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Miljkovic,   Dragan; Paul,   Rodney.
This study examines the causes of the countercyclicality of the trade balance in the three major sectors of the U.S. economy: services, manufacturing, and agriculture. These results are compared with the results pertinent to the U.S. economy as a whole. At the macroscopic level, Sachs’ hypothesis seems to explain the countercyclicality of the trade balance, while results are mixed across individual sectors. The services sector may be explained by Sachs’ hypothesis, while results for the manufacturing sector are more consistent with the real business cycle hypothesis. The results for the agricultural sector, however, cannot be explained by either hypothesis.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Decomposition of variance; Real business cycle; Trade balance; Agribusiness; International Relations/Trade; F4; E32.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/47271

On the Endogeneity of an Exogenous OCA-Criterion: The Impact of Specialisation on the Synchronisation of Regional Business Cycles in Europe
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Belke,   Ansgar; Heine,   Jens M.
This paper empirically assesses the impact of specialisation on the synchronisation of regional business cycles in two core countries of EMU, namely France and Germany. Several specialisation indices are introduced and some first stylised facts about interregional business cycle correlations are derived. Second, region pair specific and pooled estimations are enacted and tested for robustness in order to calculate the impact of specialization on the degree of business cycle synchronisation. However, our regression results confirm the hypothesis of a positive impact only partly, but they underline the problem of a common monetary policy for uncommon regions which has already existed in the DM- and in the Franc-zone before. Der vorliegende empirische Beitrag...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Agglomeration; Specialisation; Regional Employment; European Monetary Union; Regional Business Cycles; Synchronisation; F15; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Labor and Human Capital; E32; R23.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26382

Estimating Large-Scale Factor Models for Economic Activity in Germany: Do They Outperform Simpler Models?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dreger,   Christian; Schumacher,   Christian.
This paper discusses a large-scale factor model for the German economy. Following the recent literature, a data set of 121 time series is used via principal component analysis to determine the factors, which enter a dynamic model for German GDP. The model is compared with alternative univariate and multivariate models. These models are based on regression techniques and considerably smaller data sets. Out-of-sample forecasts show that the prediction errors of the factor model are smaller than the errors of the rival models. However, these advantages are not statistically significant, as a test for equal forecast accuracy shows. Therefore, the efficiency gains of using a large data set with this kind of factor models seem to be limited. Diese Arbeit...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Factor models; Principal components; Forecasting accuracy; International Development; E32; C51; C43.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26321

Oil Price Dynamics, Macro-Finance Interactions and the Role of Financial Speculation
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Morana,   Claudio.
What is the role of financial speculation in determining the real oil price? We find that while macroeconomic shocks have been the major upward driver of the real oil price since the mid 1980s, also financial shocks have sizably contributed since the early 2000s, and at a much larger extent since the mid 2000s: over the period 2004:1 through 2010:3, the real oil price increased 65%; of the latter, 33% is related to fundamental financial shocks, 11% to non fundamental financial shocks, with macroeconomic and oil market supply side shocks contributing with a 5% and 3% increase, respectively. Yet, it would be inaccurate describing the third oil price shock as a purely financial episode: macroeconomic shocks largely accounted for the 65% real oil price run up...
Tipo: Working Paper
Palavras-chave: Oil Price; Financial speculation; Macro-finance Interface; International Business Cycle; Factor Vector Autoregressive Models; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C22; E32; G12.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121723