Consulta: subjectFacets:"Production risk"
Registros recuperados: 20
Data/hora: 11/06/2024 08:20:30

Probabilistic Models of Yield, Price, and Revenue Risks for Fed Cattle Production
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Belasco,   Eric J.; Taylor,   Mykel R.; Goodwin,   Barry K.; Schroeder,   Ted C.
Cattle feeding enterprises operate amid variability originating in prices and production. This research explicitly models yield risks related to cattle feeding by relating the mean and variance of yield performance factors to observable conditioning variables. The results demonstrate that pen characteristics, such as entry weight, gender, placement season, and location influence the mean and variability of yield factors, defined as dry matter feed conversion, average daily gain, mortality, and animal health costs. Ex ante profit distributions, conditional on cattle placement characteristics, are derived through simulation methods to evaluate the effects of price or yield shocks on the distributional characteristics of expected profits.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Conditional variance; Production risk; Cattle feeding; Yields; Agribusiness; Livestock Production/Industries; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; D24; D81; Q12.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48761

Production risk and farm technology adoption in the rain-fed semi-arid lands of Kenya
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ogada,   Maurice Juma; Nyangena,   Wilfred; Yesuf,   Mahmud.
This study provides empirical evidence on the effects of production risk on smallholder farmers’ adoption of farm technology, using plot-level data collected from two semi-arid districts in Kenya, Machakos and Taita Taveta. Using Mundlak’s approach (1978), the study found that factors such as yield variability and the risk of crop failures indeed affect technology adoption decisions in low-income, rainfed agriculture. However, the direction and magnitude of effects depend on the farm technology under consideration. The results explain why poor farm households in rainfed and risky production environments are reluctant to adopt new farm technologies that could improve production: it is because the technologies involve enormous downside risks. This result...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm productivity; Production risk; Farm technology adoption; Kenya; Farm Management; International Development; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; D81; Q12; Q18.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93865

Estimating Production Risk and Inefficiency Simultaneously: An Application to Cotton Cropping Systems
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jaenicke,   Edward C.; Frechette,   Darren L.; Larson,   James A.
By using a stochastic frontier framework, the mutual effect of input use on production risk and inefficiency is investigated. Disentangling this mutual effect proves important for empirical reasons, at least when applied to west Tennessee cotton systems grown after various cover crops. The most striking result is that the stochastic frontier model, when compared with a typical Just-Pope model, reorders the relative riskiness of cover-crop regimes associated with the cotton systems.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Cotton; Inefficiency; Just-Pope; Production risk; Stochastic production frontier; Production Economics.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31059

CLIMATE CHANGE AND PRODUCTION RISK IN CHINESE AQUACULTURE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Holst,   Rainer; Yu,   Xiaohua.
Drawing on the method developed by Just and Pope (1978, 1979), this paper separately analyzes the marginal contributions of both regular input factors and climate factors to mean output and to production risk in Chinese inland aquaculture. Furthermore, the net change in output following a 1°C increase in annual average temperature will be determined. According to the results obtained, the impending changes in global climate will have both positive and negative impacts. While an increment in annual average temperatures will increase mean output and decrease production risk, an increase in temperature variability will reduce mean output and cause a higher level of production risk. The corresponding measures of precipitation however have no significant impact...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Aquaculture; Climate change; Production risk; China; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q1; Q54.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91275

Production risk in multi-output industries: estimates from Norwegian dairy farms
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tveteras,   Ragnar; Flaten,   Ola; Lien,   Gudbrand D.
Farmers who produce multiple outputs are portfolio managers in the sense that they use inputs to balance expected economic return and variance of return. This paper estimates the structure of the stochastic multi-output production technology in Norwegian dairy farming, allowing for a more flexible specification of the technology than previous studies. We find that an increase in input levels leads primarily to higher output variability, and that inputs also influence the covariance of shocks between outputs. Risk-reducing effects of inputs on outputs are primarily present in the covariance functions. Technical change leads to shifts in the profit distribution over the data period, but no welfare improvement for risk-averse farmers.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Multi-output technologies; Production risk; Dairy farming; Agribusiness; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43958

Adoption of New Seed Varieties Under Production Risk: An Application to Rice in Iran
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bakhshoodeh,   Mohamad; Shajari,   S.
This paper focuses on linkage between new rice seed varieties and production risk and also factors affecting adoption of these varieties in Iran. Farm-level data were collected from a sample of 154 rice farms located in two major districts of Fars province in Southern Iran for 2001-02. The risk-premium associated with the use of seed is estimated following by analyzing a moment-based production risk approach. The results show that the risk premium increases with new seed varieties in the lack of appropriate production conditions implying that new seed varieties is a riskincreasing input and involves a higher cost of risk. However, under suitable production conditions, the cultivation of new rice varieties on average ensures greater yield and at the same...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Production risk; Moments-based estimation; New seed varieties; Rice; Crop Production/Industries; D8; Q12; Q16.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25578

Sophisticated Program Planning Approaches Generate Large Benefits in High Risk Crop Farming
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Musshoff,   Oliver; Hirschauer,   Norbert.
Agricultural production relies to a great extent on biological processes in natural environments. In addition to volatile prices, it is thus heavily exposed to risks caused by the variability of natural conditions such as rainfall, temperature and pests. With a view to the apparently lacking support of risky farm production program decisions through formal planning models, the objective of this paper is to examine whether, and eventually by how much, farmers’ “intuitive” program decisions can be improved through formal statistical analyses and stochastic optimization models. In this performance comparison, we use the results of the formal planning approach that are generated in a quasi ex-ante analysis as a normative benchmark for the empirically observed...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Stochastic optimization; Stochastic processes; Production risk; Program planning; Time series analysis; C1; C61; M11; Q12.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36865

An Investigation of Production Risk, Risk Preferences and Technical Efficiency: Evidence From Rainfed Lowland Rice Farms in the Philippines
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Villano,   Renato A.; O'Donnell,   Christopher J.; Battese,   George E.
Risk plays a vital role in farmers' decisions on input allocations and, therefore, output supply.  This paper provides empirical evidence on the estimation of production risk, risk preferences and technical inefficiency.  An eight-year panel data set is used for 46 rice farmers from a representative rainfed lowland environment in Central Luzon, Philippines.  The heteroskedastic and stochastic frontier frameworks are reconciled and extended to accommodate the risk preferences of farmers in an analysis of production risk.  Results show that technical inefficiency is overstated in risky production environments where farmers are risk-averse.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Production risk; Risk preferences; Technical efficiency; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12953

The Role of Income Diversification, Transaction Cost and Production Risk in Fertilizer Market Participation
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Olale,   Edward; Cranfield,   John A.L.
Past agricultural input market participation studies have generally ignored the joint influence of income diversification, transaction cost and production risk on input market participation decisions. This study develops an analytical framework that jointly incorporates the three factors and other household factors in farmer-fertilizer market participation decisions. The framework is then tested by analyzing the entry and intensity decisions of fertilizer market participation in semi-arid eastern Kenya, at the farm level. Transaction costs and production risk negatively influence both the entry and intensity decisions, while income diversification positively influences the entry decisions. These results are confirmed by nested likelihood ratio tests which...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Income diversification; Transaction cost; Production risk; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Q13; Q18.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49929

DO ANTIBIOTICS REDUCE PRODUCTION RISK FOR U.S. PORK PRODUCERS?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Liu,   Xuanli; Miller,   Gay Y.; McNamara,   Paul E.
Production risk from live weight variation of market pigs has become a more important concern in U.S. swine production. Packers are concerned about the variation in carcass size because of the demand for standardized cuts and the use of automation in the slaughter process. Swine producers care about standardized pigs because of revenue implications and possible links to animal health and productivity. Pig size variation can be due to various condition and inputs including antibiotics. However, discussions on risk reduction from antibiotic use have generally not been considered. Our work extends previous studies by systematically examining the aspects of production risk reduction and highlights the potential results of banning antibiotics from a risk...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Production risk; Antibiotics; Swine; Utility; Stochastic dominance; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q10; Q12; Q14.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22026

On Production Function Estimation with Selectivity and Risk Considerations
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Koundouri,   Phoebe; Nauges,   Celine.
In the estimation of production functions, ignoring risk considerations can cause inefficient estimates, while biased parameter estimates arise in the presence of sample selection. In the presence of uncertainty and selection bias, the latter introduced by the endogeneity of qualitative characteristics of inputs in crop choice, we show that correcting for risk considerations (a la Just and Pope, 1978, 1979) but not selection bias, can produce incorrect inferences in terms of risk behavior. The arguments raised in this study have estimation and policy implications for stochastic production analysis applied to all goods whose qualitative characteristics can affect sample selection.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop choice; Production risk; Sample selection; Production Economics.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30977

Production Risk and Technical Inefficiency in Russian Agriculture
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bokusheva,   Raushan; Hockmann,   Heinrich.
This paper aims to contribute to a better understanding of possible causes of considerable production variability that characterised Russian agriculture during the last decade. The study investigates production risk and technical inefficiency as two sources that influence production variability. Using panel data from 1996 to 2001, an empirical analysis of 443 large agricultural enterprises from three regions in central, southern and Volga Russia is conducted. A production function specification accounting for the effect of inputs on both risk and technical inefficiency is found to describe production technologies of Russian farms more appropriately than the traditional stochastic frontier formulation.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Production risk; Technical efficiency; Panel data; Russian agriculture; Production Economics; D81; Q12.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24610

Modelling yield risk measures of major crop plants
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kobus,   Pawel.
The paper deals with the problem of modelling yield risk measures for major crop plants in Poland. Hence, in some cases the gamma distribution offers a better fit to the data than normal distribution, and in addition to linear models, generalized linear models were also used. The research was based on data from Polish FADN, with sample sizes ranging from 416 up to 2300, depending on the crop plant. It was found that models based on the farm level data, can explain on average 20% of variation coefficient unevenness. The most important variables were average yield, type of farming, arable area and land quality. The elimination of the average yield from the models reduced the average determination coefficient to about 9%.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Production risk; Risk measures; Yield distribution; Risk and Uncertainty; Q10; C46.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122535

Off-farm Work, Technical Efficiency, and Production Risk: Empirical Evidence from a National Farmer Survey in Taiwan
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chang,   Hung-Hao; Wen,   Fang-I.
The objective of this paper is to investigate the differences in yield production, production efficiency, and yield risk for farmers with and without off-farm work. Using a nationwide survey of Taiwanese rice farmers, we estimate a stochastic production frontier model accommodating the technical inefficiency and the production risk simultaneously. Applying the stochastic dominance criterion to rank the estimated technical efficiency and yield risk between professional farmers and farmers with off-farm jobs, our empirical analysis shows that off-farm work is significantly associated with lower technical efficiency. Additionally, farmers with off-farm work face higher production risks. Comparing the marginal effects of input uses on technical inefficiency...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Off-farm work; Technical efficiency; Production risk; Taiwan; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6164

Beef Reproductive Technology Adoption- Impact of Production Risk and Capitals
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rees,   Lisa; Parcell,   Joseph L.; Patterson,   David J.; Smith,   Michael F.; Poock,   Scott.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Beef; Artificial insemination; Estrus synchronization; Social capital; Production risk; Technology adoption; Farm Management.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56492

Climate Change Impact on Rice Yield and Production Risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kim,   Man-Keun; Pang,   Arwin.
The relationship among rice yield and weather variables in Korea is explored using a stochastic production function. The results reveal that average rice yield is positively related to temperature and negatively associated with precipitation. Both temperature and precipitation, which are risk-increasing inputs, are positively related to rice yield variability. The widened yield variability can be transferred to the fluctuation of rice production and rice price instability. Larger market risk is expected in the future since both temperature and precipitation are anticipated to increase. An evaluation of climate change impact on rice yield variability reveals that it may increase by up to 10%~20%. Reducing yield variability and managing market risk would be...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Climate change; Production risk; Stochastic production function; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Production Economics.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90682

GM Technology Adoption, Production Risk and On-farm Varietal Diversity
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Krishna,   Vijesh V.; Zilberman,   David; Qaim,   Matin.
This paper examines the impact of transgenic technology adoption on varietal diversity. Transgenic pest-resistant varieties are hypothesized to reduce farmers’ demand for on-farm diversity through an act of substitution, as both serve as production risk reducing instruments. This adverse agro-biodiversity impact might be partially counteracted by an expanding seed sector, supplying a large number of transgenic varieties. The case of Bt cotton in India is taken for empirical illustration. The production function analyses show that both Bt technology and on-farm varietal diversity enhance yield, while reducing the production risk. With few Bt varieties available in the first years, technology adoption entailed a reduction in on-farm varietal diversity. This...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agro-biodiversity; Bt cotton; Production risk; Transgenic technology; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49173

Coherent Quantitative Analysis of Risks in Agribusiness: Case of Ukraine
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tarasov,   Arthur.
Modern methods of quantitative risk analysis, specifically value-at-risk and expected shortfall approach, provide comprehensive and coherent risk evaluation throughout entire distribution of outcomes and can take agricultural business from the realm of uncertainty to specific, quantified risks. Monte Carlo simulation with autocorrelation of standard deviation shows the best results in risk modeling and is used for this research. The analysis showed that production risk is systemic within climatic regions of Ukraine with coefficients of correlation ranging from 0.25 to 0.85. Yield correlation among crops in several oblasts is low to negative, creating opportunities for diversification. However, positive price-yield correlation is dominant for agricultural...
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Production risk; Price risk; Value-at-risk in agriculture; Expected shortfall; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; GA; IN.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120240

Climate Change, Risk and Grain Production in China
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Holst,   Rainer; Yu,   Xiaohua; Grun,   Carola.
This paper  employs  the production function-based method proposed by  Just and Pope  (1978, 1979) to explicitly analyze production risk in the context of Chinese grain farming  and climate change, and  test for a potential endogeneity of climate factors in Chinese  grain production.  Our results indicate that China might, at least in the short run, become a net beneficiary  of climate change.  In particular, we find that increases in annual average temperature  increase mean output at the margin and at the same time lead to a reduction of production  risk.  Further  calculations suggest that a 1 °C increase in annual average temperature  would entail an economic benefit of $1.1 billion due to the increasing mean output.  Furthermore,  a Hausman test...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Grain production; Climate change; Production risk; China; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q1; Q54.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61177

Factors Influencing Wheat Yield and Variability: Evidence from Manitoba, Canada
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Carew,   Richard; Smith,   Elwin G.; Grant,   Cynthia.
Production functions to explain regional wheat yields have not been studied extensively in the Canadian prairies. The objective of this study is to employ a Just-Pope production function to examine the relationship between fertilizer inputs, soil quality, biodiversity indicators, cultivars qualifying for Plant Breeders’ Rights (PBR), and climatic conditions on the mean and variance of spring wheat yields. Using regional-level wheat data from Manitoba, Canada, model results show nitrogen fertilizer, temporal diversity, and PBR wheat cultivars are associated with increased yield variance. Mean wheat yield is reduced by the proportion of land in wheat, the interaction of growing temperature and precipitation, and spatial diversity. By contrast, higher soil...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Climate; Fertilizer; Manitoba; Plant Breeders’ Rights; Production risk; Wheat; Yield; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; O18; Q16.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56649