Consulta: subjectFacets:"Regime shift"
Registros recuperados: 19
Data/hora: 01/06/2024 06:46:40

Assessing the Resilience of a River Management Regime: Informal Learning in a Shadow Network in the Tisza River Basin
Provedor de dados: 7
Autores: Sendzimir, Jan; IIASA; sendzim@iiasa.ac.at; Magnuszewski, Piotr; IIASA; Wroclaw University of Technology; piotr.magnuszewski@pwr.wroc.pl; Flachner, Zsuzsanna; Research Institute for Soil Science and Agricultural Chemistry of Hungarian Academy of Sciences; flachner@rissac.hu; Molnar, Geza; Bokartis; bokartis@enternet.hu; Nagy, Zsuzsanna; Corvinus University of Budapest; zsuzsanna.nagy14@uni-corvinus.hu.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports
Palavras-chave: Flooding; Floodplain; Regime shift; Resilience; Tisza River; Transformability.
Ano: 2008

Addressing surprise and uncertain futures in marine science, marine governance, and society
Provedor de dados: 7
Autores: Thrush, Simon F; Institute of Marine Science, The University of Auckland; School of Environment, The University of Auckland; simon.thrush@auckland.ac.nz; Lewis, Nick; School of Environment, The University of Auckland; n.lewis@auckland.ac.nz; Le Heron, Richard; School of Environment, The University of Auckland; r.leheron@auckland.ac.nz; Fisher, Karen T; School of Environment, The University of Auckland; k.fisher@auckland.ac.nz; Lundquist, Carolyn J; Institute of Marine Science, The University of Auckland; National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Hamilton, New Zealand; carolyn.lundquist@niwa.co.nz; Hewitt, Judi; National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Hamilton, New Zealand; Judi.Hewitt@niwa.co.nz.
On an increasingly populated planet, with decreasing biodiversity and limited new opportunities to tap unexploited natural resources, there is a clear need to adjust aspects of marine management and governance. Although sectarian management has succeeded in addressing and managing some important threats to marine ecosystems, unintended consequences are often associated with overlooking nonlinear interactions and cumulative impacts that increase the risk of surprises in social-ecological systems. In this paper, we begin to untangle science-governance-society (SGS) interdependencies in marine systems by considering how to recognize the risk of surprise in social and ecological dynamics. Equally important is drawing attention to our state of preparedness,...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Insight
Palavras-chave: Governance; Management; Marine ecosystems; Regime shift; Resilience; Science; Society.
Ano: 2016

Generalizable principles for ecosystem stewardship-based management of social-ecological systems: lessons learned from Alaska
Provedor de dados: 7
Autores: Hansen, Winslow D.; Department of Zoology, University of Wisconsin-Madison; whansen3@wisc.edu.
Human pressure could compromise the provision of ecosystem services if we do not implement strategies such as ecosystem stewardship  to foster sustainable trajectories. Barriers to managing systems based on ecosystem stewardship principles are pervasive, including institutional constraints and uncertain system dynamics. However, solutions to help managers overcome these barriers are less common. How can we better integrate ecosystem stewardship into natural resource management practices? I draw on examples from the literature and two broadly applicable case studies from Alaska to suggest some generalizable principles that can help managers redirect how people use and view ecosystems. These include (1) accounting for both people and ecosystems in management...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports
Palavras-chave: Alaska; Bark beetle outbreak; Ecosystem disservices; Ecosystem services; Ecosystem stewardship based management strategies; Kenai Peninsula; King salmon; Regime shift; Resilience; Social-ecological systems; Transformation; Wildfire; Yukon River drainage.
Ano: 2014

Editorial:  Special Feature on Scenarios for Ecosystem Services
Provedor de dados: 7
Autores: Carpenter, Stephen R; University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA; srcarpen@wisc.edu; Bennett, Elena M.; McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada; elena.bennett@mcgill.ca; Peterson, Garry D; McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada; garry.peterson@mcgill.ca.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed article
Palavras-chave: Adaptive governance; Ambiguity; Ecological change; Ecosystem services; Poverty reduction; Regime shift; Resilience; Scenarios.
Ano: 2006

Scenarios for Ecosystem Services:  An Overview
Provedor de dados: 7
Autores: Carpenter, Stephen R; University of Wisconsin-Madison; srcarpen@wisc.edu; Bennett, Elena M; University of Wisconsin-Madison; embennett@wisc.edu; Peterson, Garry D; McGill University; garry.peterson@mcgill.ca.
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services.  Several promising approaches are...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports
Palavras-chave: Adaptive governance; Ambiguity; Ecological change; Ecosystem services; Poverty reduction; Regime shift; Resilience; Response diversity; Scenarios  uncertainty.
Ano: 2006

Re-oligotrophication trajectories of macrophyte assemblages in Mediterranean coastal lagoons based on 17-year time-series
Provedor de dados: 5
Autores: Le Fur, Ines; De Wit, Rutger; Plus, Martin; Oheix, Jocelyne; Derolez, Valerie; Simier, Monique; Malet, Nathalie; Ouisse, Vincent.
Since the mid-20th century, Mediterranean lagoons have been affected by eutrophication, leading to significant changes in primary producers. In the early 2000s, management actions have been implemented to reduce nutrient inputs with the aim to achieve a good ecological status as requested by the EU water framework directive. As a result of these actions, a sharp decline in nutrient loads has been recorded in several lagoons leading to an oligotrophication of the water column. The analyses of a long-term data set (1998-2015) of 21 polyhaline and euhaline lagoons with contrasting trophic status allowed us to infer a general scheme for the changes in macrophyte assemblages during the oligotrophication process. Placing hypertrophic and oligotrophic conditions...
Tipo: Text
Palavras-chave: Submerged aquatic vegetation; Recovery; Nutrient reduction; Restoration; Long-term data series; Resilience; Regime shift; Coastal lagoon.
Ano: 2019
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00474/58555/61110.pdf

Anchovy population expansion in the North Sea
Provedor de dados: 5
Autores: Petitgas, Pierre; Alheit, Juergen; Peck, Myron A.; Raab, Kristina; Irigoien, Xabier; Huret, Martin; Van Der Kooij, Jeroen; Pohlmann, Thomas; Wagner, Carola; Zarraonaindia, Iratxe; Dickey-collas, Mark.
The abundance and spatial occupation of European anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus have increased in the North Sea since the mid-1990s. We use a cross-disciplinary approach combining genetics, transport modelling, survey time series analyses and physical oceanographic modelling to investigate 3 hypotheses on the reasons for this change. Evidence from connectivity studies suggests that the population of North Sea anchovy is separate from that in the Bay of Biscay. The recruitment pulses observed in survey data fit a life cycle which includes spawning in early summer and larval development in late summer. This also supports the concept of population expansion originating from local remnant population(s). In terms of growth physiology, suitable thermal windows...
Tipo: Text
Palavras-chave: Climate variability; Small pelagic fish; Regime shift; Temperature; Anchovy; North Sea.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00060/17140/14638.pdf

Five critical questions of scale for the coastal zone
Provedor de dados: 5
Autores: Swaney, D. P.; Humborg, C.; Emeis, K.; Kannen, A.; Silvert, W.; Tett, P.; Pastres, R.; Solidoro, C.; Yamamuro, M.; Henocque, Yves; Nicholls, R.
Social and ecological systems around the world are becoming increasingly globalized. From the standpoint of understanding coastal ecosystem behavior, system boundaries are not sufficient to define causes of change. A flutter in the stock market in Tokyo or Hong Kong can affect salmon producers in Norway or farmers in Togo. The globalization of opportunistic species and the disempowerment of people trying to manage their own affairs on a local scale seem to coincide with the globalization of trade. Human-accelerated environmental change, including climate change, can exacerbate this sense of disenfranchisement. The structure and functioning of coastal ecosystems have been developed over thousands of years subject to environmental forces and constraints...
Tipo: Text
Palavras-chave: Scale; Coastal management; Governance; Fishery management; Regime shift; Biogeochemistry.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00073/18437/16086.pdf

Long term synchronous trends in the recruitment of the North Eastern Atlantic fish populations related to climate change and exploitation.
Provedor de dados: 5
Autores: Brunel, Thomas; Boucher, Jean.
Synchrony in population fluctuations have commonly been observed among a variety of species. They are generally attributed to the effect of common environmental forcings on population dynamics. Here, we investigate long term synchrony in the recruitment variations of the North East Atlantic fish populations. A PCA (principal component analysis) was performed to extract the main patterns of variation. The most significant one reflects the synchronous decrease of the recruitment for the majority of gadoids populations, in the Baltic Sea, Kattegat, North Sea, Irish Sea and West of Scotland. The inverse pattern was observed for half of the herring populations. Plaice populations also exhibit synchronous recruitment trends, characterised by strong year classes...
Tipo: Text
Palavras-chave: Synchrony; Regime shift; Recruitment variations; North Eastern Atlantic; Climate change.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2004/acte-1145.pdf

Changes in North Sea macrofauna communities and species distribution between 1986 and 2000
Provedor de dados: 5
Autores: Kroencke, Ingrid; Reiss, Henning; Eggleton, Jacqueline D.; Aldridge, John; Bergman, Magda J. N.; Cochrane, Sabine; Craeymeersch, Johan A.; Degraer, Steven; Desroy, Nicolas; Dewarumez, Jean-marie; Duineveld, Gerard C. A.; Essink, Karel; Hillewaert, Hans; Lavaleye, Marc S. S.; Moll, Andreas; Nehring, Stefan; Newell, Richard; Oug, Eivind; Pohlmann, Thomas; Rachor, Eike; Robertson, Mike; Rumohr, Heye; Schratzberger, Michaela; Smith, Rebecca; Berghe, Edward Vanden; Van Dalfsen, Jan; Van Hoey, Gert; Vincx, Magda; Willems, Wouter; Rees, Hubert L.
The North Sea Benthos Project 2000 was initiated as a follow-up to the 1986 ICES North Sea Benthos Survey with the major aim to identify changes in the macrofauna species distribution and community structure in the North Sea and their likely causes. The results showed that the large-scale spatial distribution of macrofauna communities in the North Sea hardly changed between 1986 and 2000, with the main divisions at the 50 m and 100 m depth contours. Water temperature and salinity as well as wave exposure, tidal stress and primary production were influential environmental factors on a large (North Sea-wide) spatial scale. The increase in abundance and regional changes in distribution of various species with a southern distribution in the North Sea in 2000...
Tipo: Text
Palavras-chave: Long-term variability; Distribution shift; NAOI; Regime shift; Non-native species; Benthic communities.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00043/15428/12888.pdf

Impact of an intrusion by the Northern Current on the biogeochemistry in the eastern Gulf of Lion, NW Mediterranean
Provedor de dados: 5
Autores: Ross, Oliver N.; Fraysse, Marion; Pinazo, Christel; Pairaud, Ivane.
We present the results from the RHOMA2011-LEG2 campaign that took place in the eastern Gulf of Lion from 7 to 17 Oct 2011 and combine them with remote sensing observations and results from a 3D coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model to study an intrusion event of the Northern Current (NC) onto the continental shelf in the Gulf of Lion (NW Mediterranean). Our analysis shows that during the intrusion, the previously upwelled nutrient-rich water present on the shelf is replaced by warmer and mostly oligotrophic NC water within a matter of 2–3 days. This has a marked impact on the local biogeochemistry in the Gulf with pre-intrusion Chl-a concentrations in the surface layer of over 0.5 mg m−3 dropping to near the detection limit within less than 72 h. The...
Tipo: Text
Palavras-chave: Northern Current; Gulf of Lion; Intrusion; Continental shelf; Biogeochemical modelling; Regime shift.
Ano: 2016
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00302/41359/40644.pdf

Analyse des déterminants environnementaux de la variabilité du recrutement - approche macroécologique appliquée aux populations exploitées du Nord-Est Atlantique
Provedor de dados: 5
Autores: Brunel, Thomas.
Recruitment - the number of young fishes that integrate each year the exploitable stock¿ has a central importance for stock dynamics. The high temporal variability in recruitment is a result of the environmental influence on survival during early life stages. Understanding the determinism of the influence of environment on recruitment remains one of the most important question in fisheries ecology. The present work aimed at answering some general questions about the influence of environment on fish recruitment using a macroecological approach. The study focused on the exploited fish populations of the Northeastern Atlantic. The first chapter of the thesis makes a review of the different methods used to estimate recruitment, compares recruitment estimates...
Tipo: Text
Palavras-chave: Time series; Recruitment variability; Regime shift; Recruitment synchrony; North East Atlantic; NAO; Long term trends; Environmental influence; Effect of temperature; Effect of fishing; Climate change; Biogeography; Variabilité du recrutement; Synchronisme; Séries chronologiques; Tendances à long terme; NAO; Influence de l'environnement; Effet de la température; Effet de la pêche; Changement de régime; Changement climatique; Biogéographie; Atlantique Nord Est.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2006/these-1113.pdf

Impact of Mandatory Price Reporting on Hog Market Integration
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Franken,   Jason R.V.; Parcell,   Joseph L.; Tonsor,   Glynn T.
This research examines whether mandatory price reporting (MPR) impacted price relationships among U.S. hog markets. Markets are cointegrated before and after MPR enactment, but not fully integrated in either period. Terminal markets adjust to shocks in the Iowa-Southern Minnesota market more quickly and Iowa-Southern Minnesota prices adjust to shocks in terminal markets more slowly following MPR enactment. Granger causality tests indicate a causal flow from terminal markets to Iowa-Southern Minnesota prices before MPR and a causal reversal after MPR enactment. These results likely reflect decreases in volume of negotiated sales, particularly in terminal markets, and greater reliance on mandatorily reported prices for market information.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Cointegration; Hog markets; Mandatory price reporting; Market integration; Regime shift; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing; Q13.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/104624

International Emission Strategies under the Threat of a Sudden Jump in Damages
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nkuiya,   Bruno.
We characterize the equilibrium level of emissions, the equilibrium stock of global pollution and the discounted net social welfare for both the cooperative and non-cooperative equilibria when the countries face the threat of a sudden irreversible jump in the global damages at an unknown date. The goal is to analyze the impact of this type of uncertainty on the equilibrium behavior of the countries. We find that it can have a significant effect on those equilibria. Countries reduce their emissions to mitigate their exposure to this threat. As the level of threat rises, countries adjust their emissions to lower the stock of pollutant. However, although initially this threat has the effect of lowering the discounted net welfare, it can in the long run have a...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Global pollution; Environmental uncertainty; Regime shift; Stochastic differential games; Environmental Economics and Policy; C61; C7; D81; Q54.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117826

Impact of Mandatory Price Reporting on Fed Cattle Market Integration
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pendell,   Dustin L.; Schroeder,   Ted C.
Geographic fed cattle markets are important because cattle are bulky and perishable, and production and consumption areas are separated. These characteristics make cattle transportation costly and can contribute to segmented markets. This study uses USDA-AMS reported fed cattle market price data from five U.S. regional fed cattle markets to investigate the effects of mandatory price reporting on spatial market integration. Results indicate these markets have been, and remain, highly cointegrated after implementation of mandatory price reporting (MPR). Following introduction of mandatory price reporting, the five regional fed cattle markets have become more fully integrated (i.e., prices tend to move more closely one-for-one following introduction of MPR).
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Cattle markets; Cointegration; Mandatory price reporting; Market integration; Regime shift; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8622

The Present Value Model, Farmland Prices and Structural Breaks
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gutierrez,   Luciano; Erickson,   Kenneth W.; Westerlund,   Joakim.
We review the constant discount rate present value model of farmland prices using non-stationary panel data analysis. We use panel unit root and cointegration analysis to test if the present value model holds for a sample of 31 U.S. States covering the period 1960-2000. Preliminary results indicate that farmland prices and cash rents are non-stationary and non-cointegrated assuming a constant discount rate. The absence of cointegration may be due to the presence of a regime shift representing a time-varying discount rate. To accommodate this possibility, we introduce new panel cointegration tests that allow for unknown regime shifts in the cointegration relationship. The results suggest that the cointegration hypothesis cannot be rejected if there is a...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farmland prices; Present value model; Non-stationary panel data analysis; Regime shift; Q24; Land Economics/Use; C22; C23; G12.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24702

Tipping Points and Ambiguity in the Economics of Climate Change
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lemoine,   Derek M.; Traeger,   Christian P.
Replaced with revised version of paper Feb 13, 2012 available at http://purl.umn.edu/120349
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Threshold; Climate; Integrated assessment; Regime shift; Ambiguity; Uncertainty; Dynamic programming; Social cost of carbon; Tipping point; Carbon tax; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q54; D90; D81.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98127

Tipping points and ambiguity in the economics of climate change
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lemoine,   Derek M.; Traeger,   Christian P.
Replaces CUDARE Working Paper no. 1111, with the title; Tipping Points and Ambiguity in the Integrated Assessment of Climate Change, issued 12-26-2010
Tipo: Working Paper
Palavras-chave: Tipping point; Threshold; Regime shift; Ambiguity; Climate; Uncertainty; Integrated assessment; Dynamic programming; Social cost of carbon; Carbon tax; Political Economy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q54; D90; D81.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120349

ANÁLISE DOS PREÇOS DA CANA-DE-AÇUCAR SOB REGIME SHIFT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cunha,   Cleyzer Adrian da; Cunha,   Alex Aires; Araujo,   Kleber Domingos.
Este trabalho teve como objetivo principal investigar, empiricamente, os efeitos da implantação do Plano Real no comportamento de longo prazo dos preços da cana-de-açúcar praticados nos estados de São Paulo e Paraná. Utilizou-se na analise testes de raiz unitária e de co-integração na presença de quebra estrutural (regime shift) desenvolvido por VOGELSANG (1997, 1999) e GREGORY e HANSEN (1996).--------------------The objective of paper is analyzing the effect of the Real Plan in the behavior of long stated period of the prices of the sugarcane. The prices are of the states of São Paulo and Paraná. We use the unit root test and of co-integration with structural breaking (regime shift) developed by VOGELSANG (1997, 1999) and GREGORY and HANSEN (1996).
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Regime shift; Preços e cana-de-açúcar; Regime shift; Prices and sugarcane; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108088