Sabiia Seb
PortuguêsEspañolEnglish
Embrapa
        Busca avançada

Botão Atualizar


Botão Atualizar

Ordenar por: RelevânciaAutorTítuloAnoImprime registros no formato resumido
Registros recuperados: 121
Primeira ... 1234567 ... Última
Imagem não selecionada

Imprime registro no formato completo
ESTIMATING FARM-LEVEL YIELD DISTRIBUTIONS FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN ILLINOIS AgEcon
Zanini, Fabio C.; Irwin, Scott H.; Schnitkey, Gary D.; Sherrick, Bruce J..
Many yield modeling approaches have been developed in attempts to provide accurate characterizations of farm-level yield distributions due to the importance of yield uncertainty in crop insurance design and rating, and for managing farm-level risk. Competing existing models of crop yields accommodate varying skewness, kurtosis, and other departures from normality including features such as multiple modes. Recently, the received view of crop yield modeling has been challenged by Just and Weninger who indicate that there is insufficient evidence to reject normality given data limitations and potential methodological shortcomings in controlling for deterministic components (trend) in yields. They point out that past empirical efforts to estimate and...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Productivity Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21720
Imagem não selecionada

Imprime registro no formato completo
EVALUATION OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICE PERFORMANCE IN HOGS AgEcon
Webber, Rick L.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes.
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the pricing performance of agricultural market advisory services in hogs. Pricing recommendations are available for all quarters from the beginning of 1995 through the end of 2001. The results show that average differences between advisory programs and market benchmarks are small in nominal terms for all three benchmarks, -$0.41/bu., $O.OO/cwt. and $-0.27/cwt. versus the cash, index and empirical benchmarks, respectively, and none of the average differences are significantly different from zero. Hence, advisory programs as a group do not outperform the market benchmarks in terms of average price. Advisory programs also do not outperform the market benchmarks in terms of average price and risk. Finally, there is...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18980
Imagem não selecionada

Imprime registro no formato completo
EVALUATION OF RISK REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MULTI-PERIOL CROP INSURANCE PRODUCTS AgEcon
Schnitkey, Gary D.; Sherrick, Bruce J.; Irwin, Scott H..
This research examines risk-return tradeoffs across a full range of crop insurance products and coverage levels. Results indicate that farm-level products reduce risk for low probability events, but that risk reductions often are not large for events that occur with more regularity. Risk reductions vary with yield variability; with counties that have higher yield variability also experiencing greater risk reductions through the use of crop insurance.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19778
Imagem não selecionada

Imprime registro no formato completo
Forecast Performance of Futures Price Models for Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat AgEcon
Hoffman, Linwood A.; Irwin, Scott H.; Toasa, Jose.
Replaced with revised version of paper 06/15/07.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9889
Imagem não selecionada

Imprime registro no formato completo
FORECASTING FED CATTLE, FEEDER CATTLE, AND CORN CASH PRICE VOLATILITY: THE ACCURACY OF TIME SERIES, IMPLIED VOLATILITY, AND COMPOSITE APPROACHES AgEcon
Manfredo, Mark R.; Leuthold, Raymond M.; Irwin, Scott H..
Economists and others need estimates of future cash price volatility to use in risk management evaluation and education programs. This paper evaluates the performance of alternative volatility forecasts for fed cattle, feeder cattle, and corn cash price returns. Forecasts include time series (e.g. GARCH), implied volatility from options on futures contracts, and composite specifications. The overriding finding from this research, consistent with the existing volatility forecasting literature, is that no single method of volatility forecasting provides superior accuracy across alternative data sets and horizons. However, evidence is provided suggesting that risk managers and extension educators use composite methods when both time series implied...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Composite forecasting; Implied volatility; Time series; Volatility forecasting.; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15449
Imagem não selecionada

Imprime registro no formato completo
Has the Performance of the Hog Options Market Changed? AgEcon
Urcola, Hernan A.; Irwin, Scott H..
The hog option contract has served as a risk management tool for the pork industry for more than 20 years. However, very limited information exists about how this market behaves and how it was affected by the contract redesign of 1996. This paper evaluates the efficiency of hog options markets comparing its pricing function during the live hog contract period to the lean hog contract period. Trading returns are computed and adjusted for risk using the Sharpe ratio and the Capital Asset Pricing Model. When the whole sample period is analyzed, results indicate that no profits can be made by taking either side of the hog options markets. However, analyzing the live and the lean hog contracts separately, some evidence suggest that opportunities for...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21479
Imagem não selecionada

Imprime registro no formato completo
Hedging Effectiveness in a Vertical Marketing Channel for Two Periods AgEcon
Baldwin, E. Dean; Irwin, Scott H.; Ahmed, Hassan; Rye, Rob.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 1990 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60385
Imagem não selecionada

Imprime registro no formato completo
Hog Options: Contract Redesign and Market Efficiency AgEcon
Urcola, Hernan A.; Irwin, Scott H..
This article tests the efficiency of the hog options market and assesses the impact of the 1996 contract redesign on efficiency. We find that the hog options market is efficient, but some options yielded excess returns during the live hogs period but not during the lean hogs period. Our findings indicate that the hog options market is efficient and is consistent with the new contract improving the efficiency of the market. However, other market conditions such as lower transaction costs during the lean hogs period can also contribute to reduce expected option returns during the latter period.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Hog options; Mispricing perceptions; Contract redesign; Trading returns; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Public Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C15; G12; G14; Q13.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100518
Imagem não selecionada

Imprime registro no formato completo
How Market Efficiency and the Theory of Storage Link Corn and Ethanol Markets AgEcon
Mallory, Mindy L.; Hayes, Dermot J.; Irwin, Scott H..
In this article we use the theories of market efficiency and supply of storage to develop a conceptual link between the corn and ethanol markets and explore statistical evidence for the link. We propose that a long-run no-profit condition is established in distant futures markets for ethanol, corn, and natural gas and then use the theory of storage to define an inter-temporal equilibrium among these prices. The relationship shows that under certain conditions, future price expectations will influence current spot prices and that a short-term relationship between input and output prices will exist. This short-term relationship will contain fixed costs. We demonstrate validity of the theory using a structural price model and then by means of time-series...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Arbitrage; Cointegration; Corn; Energy; Ethanol; Futures; Price-analysis; Storage.; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97611
Imagem não selecionada

Imprime registro no formato completo
How Much Can Outlook Forecasts be Improved? An Application to the U.S. Hog Market AgEcon
Colino, Evelyn V.; Irwin, Scott H.; Garcia, Philip.
This study investigates the predictability of outlook hog price forecasts released by Iowa State University relative to alternative market and time-series forecasts. The findings suggest that predictive performance of the outlook hog price forecasts can be improved substantially. Under RMSE, VARs estimated with Bayesian procedures that allow for some degree of flexibility and model averaging consistently outperform Iowa outlook estimates at all forecast horizons. Evidence from the encompassing tests, which are highly stringent tests of forecast performance, indicates that many price forecasts do provide incremental information relative to Iowa. Simple combinations of these models and outlook forecasts are able to reduce forecast errors by economically...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Forecast; Futures; Models; Prices; Time-series; Vector autoregression; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37620
Imagem não selecionada

Imprime registro no formato completo
HOW TO GROUP MARKET PARTICIPANTS? HETEROGENEITY IN HEDGING BEHAVIOR AgEcon
Pennings, Joost M.E.; Garcia, Philip; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L..
Using a generalized mixture model, we model individual heterogeneity by identifying groups of participants that respond in a similar manner to the determinants of economic behavior. The procedure emphasizes the role of theory as the determinants of behavior are used to simultaneously explain market activities and to discriminate among groups of market participants. We show the appealing properties of this modeling approach by comparing it with two often used grouping methods in an empirical study in which we estimate the factors affecting market participants' hedging behavior.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Institutional and Behavioral Economics.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21963
Imagem não selecionada

Imprime registro no formato completo
IMPROVING THE RELEVANCE OF RESEARCH ON PRICE FORECASTING AND MARKETING STRATEGIES AgEcon
Brorsen, B. Wade; Irwin, Scott H..
Agricultural economists' research on price forecasting and marketing strategies has been used little by those in the real world. We argue that fresh approaches to research are needed. First, we argue that we need to adopt a new theoretical paradigm, noisy rational expectations. This paradigm suggests that gains from using price forecasting models with public data or from using a marketing strategy are not impossible, but any gains are likely to be small. We need to conduct falsification tests; to perform confirmation and replication; to adjust research to reflect structural changes, such as increased contracting; and always to conduct statistical tests. We also provide a modest agenda for changing our research and extension programs.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing.
Ano: 1996 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31655
Imagem não selecionada

Imprime registro no formato completo
Is Storage at a Loss Merely an Illusion of Aggregation? AgEcon
Franken, Jason R.V.; Garcia, Philip; Irwin, Scott H..
The storage at a loss paradox of positive inventories despite inadequate spot-futures price spread coverage of storage costs is an unresolved issue of long-standing interest to economists. Alternative explanations include risk premiums for futures market speculators, convenience yields from having inventories on hand, and the mismeasurement/aggregation of data. T-test analyses of disaggregated data suggest soybean price behavior consistent with intertemporal arbitrage conditions and corn price behavior that may imply convenience yields.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19005
Imagem não selecionada

Imprime registro no formato completo
Is Storage at a Loss Merely an Illusion of Spatial Aggregation? AgEcon
Franken, Jason R.V.; Garcia, Philip; Irwin, Scott H..
The storage-at-a-loss paradox—stocks despite inadequate price growth to cover storage costs—is an unresolved issue of long-standing interest to economists. Alternative explanations include risk premiums for futures market speculators, convenience yields from holding stocks, and mismeasurement/aggregation of data. Statistical analyses of regional and elevator corn and soybean price growth in Illinois suggest limited aggregation effects and reveal a pattern of regional- and elevator-level backwardations in the presence of Illinois corn stocks that is inconsistent with aggregation explanations for storage at a loss. Interviews with elevator managers support the existence of convenience yields.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Aggregation; Convenience yield; Corn; Intertemporal arbitrage; Regional and elevator data; Soybeans; Storage at a loss; Agribusiness; Marketing.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90658
Imagem não selecionada

Imprime registro no formato completo
Live and Feeder Cattle Options Markets: Returns, Risk, and Volatility Forecasting AgEcon
Brittain, Lee; Garcia, Philip; Irwin, Scott H..
The paper examines empirical returns from holding thirty- and ninety-day call and put positions, and the forecasting performance of implied volatility in the live and feeder cattle options markets. In both markets, implied volatility is an upwardly biased and inefficient predictor of realized volatility, with bias most prominent in live cattle. While significant returns exist holding several market positions, most strategies are strongly affected by a drift in futures market prices. However, the returns from selling live cattle puts are persistent, and evidence from straddle returns identifies that the market overprices volatility. This overpricing is consistent with a short-term risk premium whose effect is magnified by extreme changes in market conditions.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Live cattle; Feeder cattle; Options; Returns; Risk; Volatility forecasting; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53038
Imagem não selecionada

Imprime registro no formato completo
Live and Feeder Cattle Options Markets: Returns, Risk, and Volatility Forecasting AgEcon
Brittain, Lee; Garcia, Philip; Irwin, Scott H..
This paper examines returns from holding 30- and 90-day call and put positions, and the forecasting performance of implied volatility in the live and feeder cattle options markets. Implied volatility is an upwardly biased and inefficient predictor of realized volatility, with bias most pronounced in live cattle. While significant returns exist from several positions, strategies are strongly affected by drifts in futures prices. However, returns from live cattle puts are persistent, and evidence from 30-day straddle returns indicates the live cattle market overprices volatility. Overpricing is consistent with volatility risk, the effect of which is magnified by extreme market conditions.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Feeder cattle; Live cattle; Options; Returns; Risk; Volatility forecasting; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/105515
Imagem não selecionada

Imprime registro no formato completo
Market Instability in a New Era of Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Prices AgEcon
Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L..
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Grain; Price; Increase; Trend; Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing; Q11; Q13.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94694
Imagem não selecionada

Imprime registro no formato completo
Modeling Farmers' Use of Market Advisory Services AgEcon
Pennings, Joost M.E.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L..
In an effort to improve marketing of their products, many farmers use market advisory services (MAS). To date, there is only fragmented anecdotal information about how farmers actually use the recommendations of market advisory services in their marketing plans, and how they choose among these services. Based on the literature on consulting services usage, a conceptual framework is developed in which perceived performance of the MAS regarding realized crop price and risk reduction, and the match between the MAS and the farmer's marketing philosophy drive MAS usage. To account for possible heterogeneity among farmers regarding to the use of MAS, we introduce a mixture-modeling framework that is able to identify unobserved heterogeneity. With this modeling...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18950
Imagem não selecionada

Imprime registro no formato completo
New Generation Grain Marketing Contracts AgEcon
Hagedorn, Lewis A.; Irwin, Scott H.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Good, Darrel L.; Sherrick, Bruce J.; Schnitkey, Gary D..
The purpose of this research report is to summarize the features of several types of "new generation" grain marketing contracts. Over the last several years, new types of grain marketing contracts have been developed by the grain industry in an attempt to improve the results of the marketing process for farmers. These products use automated pricing rules, discretionary marketing on the part of a professional advisor, options strategies, or some combination of all three; their goal is to achieve a price for the farmer near or above the "average" price offered by the market over a given time. Reports in the farm media suggest interest in new generation contracts has increased rapidly in recent years. This publication describes some of the contracts...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14782
Imagem não selecionada

Imprime registro no formato completo
NOISE TRADE DEMAND IN FUTURES MARKETS AgEcon
Sanders, Dwight R.; Irwin, Scott H.; Leuthold, Raymond M..
Theoretical noise trader models suggest that uninformed traders can impact market prices. However, these models' conclusions depend crucially on the assumed specification for noise trader demand. This research seeks to empirically determine the appropriate demand specification for uninformed traders. Using commercial market sentiment indices as proxies for noise trader demand, Granger causality models are estimated to examine the linear linkages between sentiment and futures returns. The models strongly suggest that noise traders are positive feedback traders (i.e., extrapolative expectations) with relatively long memories.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 1996 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14765
Registros recuperados: 121
Primeira ... 1234567 ... Última
 

Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária - Embrapa
Todos os direitos reservados, conforme Lei n° 9.610
Política de Privacidade
Área restrita

Embrapa
Parque Estação Biológica - PqEB s/n°
Brasília, DF - Brasil - CEP 70770-901
Fone: (61) 3448-4433 - Fax: (61) 3448-4890 / 3448-4891 SAC: https://www.embrapa.br/fale-conosco

Valid HTML 4.01 Transitional