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Registros recuperados: 121
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Hedging Effectiveness in a Vertical Marketing Channel for Two Periods AgEcon
Baldwin, E. Dean; Irwin, Scott H.; Ahmed, Hassan; Rye, Rob.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 1990 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60385
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The Market Timing Value of Univariate and Multivariate Time Series Models Within the Soybean Complex AgEcon
Gerlow, Mary E.; Irwin, Scott H.; Zulauf, Carl R.; Tinker, Jonathan N..
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 1992 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/62318
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IMPROVING THE RELEVANCE OF RESEARCH ON PRICE FORECASTING AND MARKETING STRATEGIES AgEcon
Brorsen, B. Wade; Irwin, Scott H..
Agricultural economists' research on price forecasting and marketing strategies has been used little by those in the real world. We argue that fresh approaches to research are needed. First, we argue that we need to adopt a new theoretical paradigm, noisy rational expectations. This paradigm suggests that gains from using price forecasting models with public data or from using a marketing strategy are not impossible, but any gains are likely to be small. We need to conduct falsification tests; to perform confirmation and replication; to adjust research to reflect structural changes, such as increased contracting; and always to conduct statistical tests. We also provide a modest agenda for changing our research and extension programs.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing.
Ano: 1996 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31655
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NOISE TRADE DEMAND IN FUTURES MARKETS AgEcon
Sanders, Dwight R.; Irwin, Scott H.; Leuthold, Raymond M..
Theoretical noise trader models suggest that uninformed traders can impact market prices. However, these models' conclusions depend crucially on the assumed specification for noise trader demand. This research seeks to empirically determine the appropriate demand specification for uninformed traders. Using commercial market sentiment indices as proxies for noise trader demand, Granger causality models are estimated to examine the linear linkages between sentiment and futures returns. The models strongly suggest that noise traders are positive feedback traders (i.e., extrapolative expectations) with relatively long memories.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 1996 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14765
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1995 PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS AgEcon
Jackson, Thomas E.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L..
The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance in 1995 for corn and soybeans. Specifically, the average price received by a subscriber to an advisory service is calculated for corn and soybean crops harvested in 1995. The average net advisory price across all 25 corn programs is $3.04 per bushel. The range of net advisory prices for corn is quite large, with a minimum of $2.34 per bushel and a maximum of $3.81 per bushel. The average net advisory price across all 25 soybean programs is $6.61 per bushel. As with corn, the range of net advisory prices for soybeans is substantial, with a minimum of $5.75 per bushel and a maximum of $7.92 per bushel.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agricultural Market Advisory Service (AgMAS) Project; D4; D7; D8; G1; G2; H4; H8; Q1; Z1; Marketing.
Ano: 1997 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14790
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AN ANALYSIS OF THE PROFILES AND MOTIVATIONS OF HABITUAL COMMODITY SPECULATORS AgEcon
Canoles, W. Bruce; Thompson, Sarahelen R.; Irwin, Scott H.; France, Virginia G..
The focus of this study is the habitual speculator in commodity futures markets. The speculator's activity broadens a market, creates essential liquidity, and performs an irreplaceable pricing function. Working knowledge of the profiles and motivations of habitual speculators is essential to both market theorist and policy makers. Responses to a 73 question survey were collected directly from retail commodity brokers with offices in Alabama. Each questionnaire recorded information on an individual commodity client who had traded for an extended period of time. The typical trader studied is a married, white male, age 52. He is affluent and well educated. He is a self-employed business owner who can recover from financial setbacks. He is a politically right...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 1997 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14768
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1996 PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS AgEcon
Jackson, Thomas E.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L..
The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance in 1996 for corn and soybeans. Specifically, the average price received by a subscriber to an advisory service is calculated for corn and soybean crops harvested in 1996. The average net advisory price across all 26 corn programs is $2.63 per bushel. The range of net advisory prices for corn is quite large, with a minimum of $2.08 per bushel and a maximum of $3.12 per bushel. The average net advisory price across all 24 soybean programs is $7.27 per bushel. As with corn, the range of net advisory prices for soybeans is substantial, with a minimum of $6.80 per bushel and a maximum of $7.80 per bushel.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agricultural Market Advisory Services; G1; D8; D7; D4; G2; H4; H8; Q1; Z1; Marketing.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14787
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DEVELOPMENT OF A MARKET BENCHMARK PRICE FOR AGMAS PERFORMANCE EVALUATIONS AgEcon
Good, Darrel L.; Irwin, Scott H.; Jackson, Thomas E..
The purpose of this research report is to identify the appropriate market benchmark price to use to evaluate the pricing performance of market advisory services that are included in the annual AgMAS pricing performance evaluations. Five desirable properties of market benchmark prices are identified. Three potential specifications of the market benchmark price are considered: the average price received by Illinois farmers, the harvest cash price, and the average cash price over a two-year crop marketing window. The average cash price meets all of the desired properties, except that it would not be easily implementable by producers. It can be shown, though, that the price realized via a more manageable strategy of "spreading" sales during the marketing...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Advisory services; Evaluating the pricing performance; Market benchmark price; C8; C0; D4; D8; L1; M3; Q0; Z0; Marketing.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14783
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1997 PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS AgEcon
Jackson, Thomas E.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L..
The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance in 1997 for corn and soybeans. Specifically, the average price received by a subscriber to an advisory service is calculated for corn and soybean crops harvested in 1997. The average net advisory price across all 23 corn programs is $2.32 per bushel. The net advisory prices for corn range from a minimum of $2.00 per bushel to a maximum of $2.74 per bushel. The average net advisory price across all 21 soybean programs is $6.40 per bushel. The net advisory prices for soybeans range from a minimum of $6.08 per bushel to a maximum of $6.99 per bushel.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Evaluation of advisory services; Pricing performance; Soybeans; C8; D4; D8; L1; M3; Q0; Z0; Marketing.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14780
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THE MARKETING STYLE OF ADVISORY SERVICES FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN 1995 AgEcon
Bertoli, Roberto; Zuluaf, Carl R.; Irwin, Scott H.; Jackson, Thomas E.; Good, Darrel L..
The 1995 marketing styles for the 25 market advisory service programs included in the AgMAS Project were developed in two steps. The first step was the construction of a detailed "menu" of the tools and strategies used by each of the advisory programs in marketing corn and soybeans. The menu describes the type of pricing tool, frequency of transactions, and magnitude of transactions. The second step was the development of a daily index of the net amount sold by each market advisory program. To construct such an index, the various futures, options, and cash positions recommended for a program on a given day were weighted by the respective position "delta." When the daily values of the index were plotted for the entire marketing period, the marketing...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Advisory services; Pricing tools; Pricing strategies; Assessment of recommendations; D4; C8; D8; M3; Q0; Marketing.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14792
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DO AGRICULTURAL MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES BEAT THE MARKET? EVIDENCE FROM THE CORN AND SOYBEAN MARKETS OVER 1995-1997 AgEcon
Irwin, Scott H.; Jackson, Thomas E.; Good, Darrel L..
The purpose of this paper is to address two basic performance questions for market advisory services: 1) Do market advisory services, on average, outperform an appropriate market benchmark? and 2) Do market advisory services exhibit persistence in their performance from year-to-year? Data on corn and soybean net price received for advisory services, as reported by the AgMAS Project, are available for the 1995, 1996 and 1997 marketing years. Performance test results suggest that, on average, market advisory services exhibit a small ability to "beat the market" for the 1995 through 1997 corn and soybean crops. This conclusion is somewhat sensitive to the type of performance test and market benchmark considered. The predictability results provide little...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14789
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SURVEYING FARMERS: A RESEARCH NOTE AgEcon
Pennings, Joost M.E.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L..
Mail surveys are a very popular instrument for researchers as well as government agencies and commercial firms to obtain information about farmers. A large percentage of farmers do not respond to these mail surveys. To gain insight into why farmers do not respond and their preferences regarding mail surveys, farmers who did not respond to a mail survey were interviewed. From our field study it appears that a large proportion does not even read the questionnaire. Furthermore, the period in which the survey is sent along with the form and amount of compensation, the sender of the questionnaire, and the length of the questionnaire has a crucial impact on the willingness to participate.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14781
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1999 PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS AgEcon
Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Good, Darrel L.; Irwin, Scott H..
The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance in the 1999 crop year for corn and soybeans. Specifically, the average price received by a subscriber to an advisory service is calculated for corn and soybean crops harvested in 1999. The average net advisory price across all 26 corn programs in 1999 is $2.02 per bushel, three cents below the market benchmark price. The range of net advisory prices for corn is substantial, with a minimum of $1.66 per bushel and a maximum of $2.49 per bushel. The average net advisory price across all 25 soybean programs in 1999 is $5.67 per bushel, seventeen cents above the market benchmark. As with corn, the range of net advisory prices for soybeans is substantial,...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14779
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THE 1995 THROUGH 1998 PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES FOR WHEAT AgEcon
Jirik, Mark A.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Jackson, Thomas E.; Jirik, Mark A.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes.
The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance from 1995 through 1998 for wheat. The average net advisory price across all 24 wheat programs in 1995 is $3.79 per bushel, $0.18 above the market benchmark price. The range in 1995 is $3.01 to $4.71 per bushel. The average net advisory service price for 23 wheat programs in 1996 is $3.82 per bushel, $0.13 below the market benchmark. The range in 1996 is $2.74 to $4.94 per bushel. The average net advisory price for all 20 wheat programs in 1997 is $2.64 per bushel, $0.58 below the market benchmark. The range in 1997 is $1.34 to $3.90 per bushel. Finally, the average net advisory price across all 21 services in 1998 is $2.36 per bushel, $0.54 below...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14777
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THE PRIVATE SECTOR APPROACH TO GRAIN MARKETING: THE CASE OF AGRICULTURAL MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES AgEcon
Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Jackson, Thomas E..
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the pricing performance and behavior of market advisory services in corn and soybeans. Data on corn and soybean net price received for advisory services, as reported by the AgMAS Project, are available for the 1995, 1996 and 1997 marketing years. Performance test results suggest that, on average, market advisory services exhibit a small ability to "beat the market". This conclusion is somewhat sensitive to the type of performance test and market benchmark considered. The predictability results provide little evidence that future advisory service pricing performance can be predicted from past performance. Marketing profiles identify three marketing "styles": i) "scale-up" sales, ii) selective hedging and...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agribusiness.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19579
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DO AGRICULTURAL MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES BEAT THE MARKET? EVIDENCE FROM THE CORN AND SOYBEAN MARKETS OVER 1995-1998 AgEcon
Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Jackson, Thomas E..
The purpose of this paper is to address two basic performance questions for market advisory services: 1) Do market advisory services, on average, outperform an appropriate market benchmark? and 2) Do market advisory services exhibit persistence in their performance from year-to-year? Data on corn and soybean net price received for advisory services, as reported by the AgMAS Project, are available for the 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998 crop years. Performance test results suggest that, on average, market advisory services exhibit a small ability to "beat the market" for the 1995 through 1998 corn and soybean crops. It is debatable whether the performance of advisory services also is economically significant. The predictability results provide little evidence...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14786
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1998 PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS AgEcon
Good, Darrel L.; Irwin, Scott H.; Jackson, Thomas E.; Jirik, Mark A.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes.
The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance in 1998 for corn and soybeans. Specifically, the average price received by a subscriber to an advisory service is calculated for corn and soybean crops harvested in 1998. The average net advisory price across all 23 corn programs is $2.17 per bushel - seven cents below the market benchmark price. The net advisory prices for corn range from a minimum of $1.93 per bushel to a maximum of $2.51 per bushel. The average net advisory price across all 22 soybean programs is $5.82 per bushel - four cents less than the market benchmark. The net advisory prices for soybeans range from a minimum of $5.11 per bushel to a maximum of $6.58 per bushel.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14793
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THE PERFORMANCE OF AGRICULTURAL MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES IN MARKETING WHEAT AgEcon
Jirik, Mark A.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Jackson, Thomas E.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes.
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of agricultural market advisory services in marketing wheat. Two key performance questions are addressed: 1) Do market advisory services, on average, outperform an appropriate wheat market benchmark? and 2) Do market advisory services exhibit persistence in their wheat performance from year-to-year? Market advisory service recommendations for wheat are available from the AgMAS Project for the 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998 marketing years. At least 20 advisory programs are included for each year. Tests of pricing performance relative to a market benchmark are based on the proportion of programs exceeding the benchmark price and the average percentage difference between the net price of advisory...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Wheat; Market advisory service; Benchmark; Market efficiency; Pricing performance; Predictability; Crop Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18928
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ESTIMATING FARM-LEVEL YIELD DISTRIBUTIONS FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN ILLINOIS AgEcon
Zanini, Fabio C.; Irwin, Scott H.; Schnitkey, Gary D.; Sherrick, Bruce J..
Many yield modeling approaches have been developed in attempts to provide accurate characterizations of farm-level yield distributions due to the importance of yield uncertainty in crop insurance design and rating, and for managing farm-level risk. Competing existing models of crop yields accommodate varying skewness, kurtosis, and other departures from normality including features such as multiple modes. Recently, the received view of crop yield modeling has been challenged by Just and Weninger who indicate that there is insufficient evidence to reject normality given data limitations and potential methodological shortcomings in controlling for deterministic components (trend) in yields. They point out that past empirical efforts to estimate and...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Productivity Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21720
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THE EFFECTS OF FUTURES TRADING BY LARGE HEDGE FUNDS AND CTAS ON MARKET VOLATILITY AgEcon
Holt, Bryce R.; Irwin, Scott H..
This study uses the newly available data from the CFTC to investigate the market impact of futures trading by large hedge funds and CTAs. Regression results show that there is a positive relationship between the trading volume of large hedge funds and CTAs and market volatility. However, a positive relationship between hedge fund and CTA trading volume and market volatility is consistent with either a private information or noise trader hypothesis. Three additional tests are conducted to distinguish between the private information hypothesis and the noise trader hypothesis. The first test consisted of identifying the noise component exhibited in return variances over different holding periods. The variance ratio tests provide little support for the noise...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Hedge fund; Commodity trading advisor; Volatility; Market efficiency; Futures markets; Marketing.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18935
Registros recuperados: 121
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