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The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss AgEcon
Auffhammer, Maximilian.
The United States Energy Information Administration publishes annual forecasts of nationally aggregated energy consumption, production, prices, intensity and GDP. These government issued forecasts often serve as reference cases in the calibration of simulation and econometric models, which climate and energy policy are based on. This study tests for rationality of published EIA forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss. We find strong empirical evidence of asymmetric loss for oil, coal and gas prices as well as natural gas consumption, GDP and energy intensity.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Forecasting; Asymmetric loss; Energy intensity; Energy Information Administration; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q43; C53.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25017
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La evolucion de la intensidad energetica de la industria vasca entre 1982 y 2001: un analisis de descomposicion AgEcon
Ansuategi, Alberto; Arto, Inaki.
En este artículo se utiliza una metodología de descomposición basada en índices para obtener estimaciones cuantificadas de los efectos intersectoriales e intrasectoriales que explican la reducción en un 38% de la intensidad energética de la industria vasca entre 1982 y 2001. Los resultados de la descomposición aditiva de los cambios de la intensidad energética de la industria vasca a nivel de período muestran (1) que dicha reducción se debió principalmente a cambios intrasectoriales y (2) que los cambios intersectoriales apenas contribuyeron a reducir la intensidad energética de la industria vasca. No obstante, los resultados de descomposición de serie temporal revelan (1) que la evolución de la intensidad energética de la industria vasca no fue lineal,...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Energy intensity; Decomposition analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q40.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28729
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Analysis of the regional impacts of Climate Policy in Japan AgEcon
Okajima, Shigeharu.
After great improvements in energy efficiency in the 1970’s, Japan has made little progress in reducing energy consumption since 1990, the base year for the Kyoto Protocol. This study is motivated by the recent growing demands among policy makers to find all possibilities for saving energy. To make informed decisions on how to save energy, policy makers need detailed information on energy consumption structures within each jurisdiction. First, in this article, I decompose national level energy intensity into efficiency and activity effects with the Fisher Ideal index, and then estimate regressions on prefecture level residential electricity demand between 1990 and 2003. It is found that national level energy intensity declined by seventy three percent...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Fisher index; Energy intensity; Regional Computable General Equilibrium; Environmental taxes; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49118
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Breaks and Trends in OECD Countries’ Energy-GDP Ratios AgEcon
Liddle, Brantley.
This paper uses the econometrics of endogenous structural breaks to examine changes in energy intensity for OECD countries over 1960-2009. Nearly all OECD countries currently have significant negatively trending energy-GDP ratios; but for several countries those negative trends are recent, and two countries have recent significant positive trends. For several countries, energy intensity had a significant positive trend followed by a break and then a significant negative trend. Those break-dates, however, appear to have little to do with level of development (GDP per capita). Instead, among the likely causes of break timing are the volatile energy prices of the 1970s and early 1980s and the increased concern for the environment in the late 1960s and early...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Energy intensity; Endogenous structural breaks; Modeling environment and development; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q43; O13.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100578
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The Measurement of the Energy Intensity of Manufacturing Industries: A Principal Components Analysis AgEcon
Bernard, Jean-Thomas; Cote, Bruno.
Energy intensity is the ratio of energy use to output. Most industries deal with several energy sources and outputs. This leads to the usual difficulties of aggregating heterogeneous inputs and outputs. We apply principal components analysis to assess the information derived from six energy intensity indicators. We use two measures of total energy use (thermal and economic) and three measures of industry output (value added, value of production, and value of shipments). The data comes from manufacturing industries in Quebec, Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia from 1976 to 1996. We find that the variation of the six energy intensity indicators that is accounted for by the first principal component is quite large. However, depending on how variables are...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Energy intensity; Aggregation; Principal components analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q40; C43; L60.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10544
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