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ASSESSING ECONOMIC AND TECHNICAL IMPACTS OF NON EXPECTED WEATHER EVENTS ON FRENCH SUCKLER COW FARMS DYNAMICS: A DYNAMIC RECURSIVE FARM MODEL AgEcon
Mosnier, Claire; Agabriel, Jacques; Lherm, Michel; Reynaud, Arnaud.
Weather variability can threaten French suckler cow farms which rely on rather extensive forage production. However, flexibility of the production system can help farmer to face crop production shocks. This study aims at assessing how crop yield shocks impact on farms outcomes when adaptive capacity is taken into account. Our objectives are to develop a dynamic model which enables us 1) to predict the optimal mix of production adjustments to face crop yield shocks, 2) to quantify how far the system moves from the equilibrium and how long it takes to return and 3) to measure impact of shocks on economic results when adaptive capacity is taken into account. An original dynamic recursive bio-economic farm model integrating detailed technical and biological...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Livestock farm model; Dynamic recursive model; Crop yield variability; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44257
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Estimating a production function under production and price risks: An application to the suckler cow farms in the French charolais production area AgEcon
Mosnier, Claire; Reynaud, Arnaud; Thomas, Alban; Lherm, Michel; Agabriel, Jacques.
Suckler cow production in France relies mainly on a relatively extensive management of forage, implying that production risk may be enhanced by the sensitivity of those crops to weather variability. However risk exposure is supposed to be mitigated either through ex-ante decisions concerning pasture area management or through ex-post decisions concerning the purchase of feeds. This paper aims at assessing weather impacts on cattle production level decisions. Since farmers' decisions depend on farmers' behaviour regarding risks, which are namely production and price risks, we test constant absolute risk aversion, constant relative risk aversion and risk neutrality assumptions. We develop an econometric model encompassing an auto-regressive price function...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Production function estimation; GMM; Weather impact; Price and production risks; Risk aversion; Suckler cow farms; French charolais production area; Livestock Production/Industries; Production Economics.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9246
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On-farm weather risk management in suckler cow farms: A recursive discrete stochastic programming approach AgEcon
Mosnier, Claire; Agabriel, Jacques; Lherm, Michel; Reynaud, Arnaud.
Currently France wants to introduce a weather risk management framework into its agricultural policy for livestock farming. The aim of this paper is to better understand how on-farm risk reducing strategies modify the production system and profit distribution of French suckler cow enterprises. We present in this paper an original bioeconomic model that takes into account both risk anticipation and risk adjustments and that details biotechnical relationships between the different components of the beef cattle production system and their dynamics. On-farm risk management strategies are endogeneized under weather uncertainty and tested on real observed weather sequences. We simulate four scenarios characterized by different risk aversions and feed prices....
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114645
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