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Registros recuperados: 19
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A Stochastic Analysis of Proposals for the New US Farm Bill AgEcon
Binfield, Julian C.R.; Adams, Gary M.; Westhoff, Patrick C.; Young, Robert E., II.
Most of the large scale modeling systems used in the analysis of agricultural policies produce deterministic projections. In reality, however, the agricultural sector is subject to a high degree of uncertainty as a result of fluctuations in exogenous factors such as the weather or macroeconomic variation. A stochastic approach can provide additional information to policy makers regarding the implications of this uncertainty, through the use of stochastically generated projections. This paper also shows how deterministic analysis may result in systematic errors in the projection of some variables. As an applied example, the FAPRI model of the US agricultural sector is simulated stochastically to analyse the impact of proposals for the new US farm bill.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Stochastic simulation; US Farm Bill; Policy analysis; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24913
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A Stochastic Analysis of the Impact of Volatile World Agricultural Prices on European and UK Agriculture AgEcon
Moss, Joan E.; Binfield, Julian C.R.; Zhang, Lichun; Patton, Myles; Kim, In Seck.
Successive Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms and trade liberalisation have led to a more market-orientated European agricultural sector, with EU commodity prices now more closely linked to world prices. As a consequence EU prices have become more volatile. Greater price volatility increases uncertainty and raises fresh challenges for projections of policy impacts in the EU. To take account of world price volatility stochastic modelling has been applied to the FAPRI-EU partial equilibrium model, which includes a UK modelling system. Stochastic modelling provides a means to capture some of the inherent uncertainty associated with agricultural production systems. By varying assumptions about certain exogenous variables, stochastic models can be used to...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Stochastic modelling; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108771
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An Examination of Milk Quota expansion at EU member State Level with specific emphasis on Ireland AgEcon
Binfield, Julian C.R.; Donnellan, Trevor; Hanrahan, Kevin F..
The CAP Health Check in 2008 may result in fundamental changes in EU dairy policy. An expansion of the EU dairy quota is being strongly considered as a prelude to the elimination of the quota mechanism by 2014/15. This paper addresses the implications of such a reform for EU and Irish dairy commodity markets. We use a suite of partial equilibrium multi commodity structural models of EU agricultural commodity markets to project the impact of an expansion in the dairy quota on milk and dairy commodity production, dairy commodity prices and milk prices at an EU and Member State level. A number of experiments are conducted involving differing annual rates of expansion of the milk quota using national quota rents from the literature.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Milk Quota Expansion; Partial Equilibrium; Commodity modelling; Demand and Price Analysis; Industrial Organization; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6467
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CAP Reform and the WTO: Potential Impacts on EU Agriculture AgEcon
Binfield, Julian C.R.; Donnellan, Trevor; Hanrahan, Kevin F.; Hart, Chad E.; Westhoff, Patrick C..
In 2003 an agreement was finalized to instigate arguably the most significant reform of the European Union's (EU) Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) since its inception. In the Luxembourg Agreement many of the direct payments that have been linked to production are decoupled and instead provided in the form of a land-based payment. The reforms did not include any significant changes to either EU border support or the ability of the EU to utilize export subsidies that have been widely criticized by other nations. Even though the reforms do not directly address trade in agricultural products it is argued that World Trade Organization (WTO) concerns played a significant role in the designs of the reforms. In this paper an analysis of the Luxembourg reforms and...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20020
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FAPRI 2002 World Agricultural Outlook AgEcon
Babcock, Bruce A.; Beghin, John C.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; de Cara, Stephane; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fang, Cheng; Fuller, Frank H.; Hart, Chad E.; Isik, Murat; Matthey, Holger; Saak, Alexander E.; Kovarik, Karen; Womack, Abner W.; Young, Robert E., II; Westhoff, Patrick C.; Trujillo, Joe; Brown, D. Scott; Adams, Gary M.; Willott, Brian; Madison, Daniel; Meyer, Seth D.; Kruse, John R.; Binfield, Julian C.R..
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32051
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FAPRI 2003 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook AgEcon
Babcock, Bruce A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Matthey, Holger; Isik, Murat; Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E.; Hart, Chad E.; Saak, Alexander E.; Fuller, Frank H.; Kovarik, Karen; Womack, Abner W.; Young, Robert E., II; Westhoff, Patrick C.; Brown, D. Scott; Willott, Brian; Madison, Daniel; Meyer, Seth D.; Kruse, John R.; Binfield, Julian C.R..
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32053
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FAPRI 2004 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook AgEcon
Beghin, John C.; Dong, Fengxia; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Fuller, Frank H.; Hart, Chad E.; Kovacik, Karen; Matthey, Holger; Saak, Alexander E.; Tokgoz, Simla; Chavez, Eddie C.; Wailes, Eric J.; Womack, Abner W.; Meyers, William H.; Binfield, Julian C.R.; Brown, D. Scott; Kruse, John R.; Madison, Daniel; Meyer, Seth D.; Westhoff, Patrick C..
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32046
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FAPRI 2005 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook AgEcon
Beghin, John C.; Dong, Fengxia; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Fuller, Frank H.; Hart, Chad E.; Kovarik, Karen; Matthey, Holger; Saak, Alexander E.; Tokgoz, Simla; Wailes, Eric J.; Womack, Abner W.; Meyers, William H.; Binfield, Julian C.R.; Brown, D. Scott; Kruse, John R.; Madison, Daniel; Meyer, Seth D.; Westhoff, Patrick C.; Wilcox, Lori.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32048
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FAPRI 2006 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook AgEcon
Beghin, John C.; Dong, Fengxia; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Fuller, Frank H.; Hart, Chad E.; Kovarik, Karen; Tokgoz, Simla; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Wailes, Eric J.; Chavez, Eddie C.; Womack, Abner W.; Meyers, William H.; Binfield, Julian C.R.; Brown, D. Scott; Kruse, John R.; Madison, Daniel; Meyer, Seth D.; Westhoff, Patrick C.; Wilcox, Lori.
The FAPRI 2006 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook presents projections of world agricultural production, consumption, and trade under average weather patterns, existing farm policy, and policy commitments under current trade agreements and custom unions. Despite continued high energy prices, world economic growth is expected to remain strong in the coming decade, above 3% per annum. Other major drivers of the 2006 baseline include new bio-energy policies in several large countries, EU sugar policy reform, sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) shocks in livestock and poultry markets, and movements in the exchange rate.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7319
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FAPRI 2007 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook AgEcon
Beghin, John C.; Dong, Fengxia; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Fuller, Frank H.; Hart, Chad E.; Kovarik, Karen; Tokgoz, Simla; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Wailes, Eric J.; Chavez, Eddie C.; Womack, Abner W.; Meyers, William H.; Binfield, Julian C.R.; Brown, D. Scott; Kruse, John R.; Madison, Daniel; Meyer, Seth D.; Westhoff, Patrick C.; Wilcox, Lori.
The FAPRI 2007 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook presents projections of world agricultural production, consumption, and trade under average weather patterns, existing farm policy, and policy commitments under current trade agreements and custom unions. The outlook uses a macroeconomic forecast developed by Global Insight.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7296
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Impact of the abolition of EU Milk quotas on Agriculture in the UK AgEcon
Patton, Myles; Binfield, Julian C.R.; Moss, Joan E.; Kostov, Philip; Zhang, Lichun; Davis, John; Westhoff, Patrick C..
In recent years the CAP has undergone significant reforms, but the dairy sector has largely avoided wholesale changes. The sector, however, is now faced with a significant effort by the Commission to instigate reform. In this study the FAPRI-UK modelling system is simulated to identify the impact of abolishing or phasing out EU milk quotas on the dairy sector in the UK and the results are compared against a 2007 Baseline projection (2007--2016). The results demonstrate that although the impact of the abolition of dairy quotas is fairly modest at the EU-25 level, significant impacts are apparent at the individual country level.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Milk Quotas; CAP Reform; Commodity Modelling; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6650
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INCORPORATING BIOFUELS INTO A PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL OF THE EU AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AgEcon
Binfield, Julian C.R.; Westhoff, Patrick C.; Le Cadre, Elodie.
The impact of increased consumption of biofuels on agricultural markets has already been substantial, and will increase further as countries around the world seek to expand the proportion of their energy that they get from renewable sources. Models of the agricultural sector must therefore include some consideration of the demand for agricultural products for biofuels and the byproducts that are produced as part of the production process that are returned to the agricultural sector. In this paper the method of introducing biofuels into the FAPRI GOLD (grains, oilseeds, livestock and dairy) model is discussed. A scenario is run whereby the EU is assumed to introduce a binding 10% target by 2020 and the results are discussed in order to illustrate the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Partial equilibrium model; Agricultural sector; EU policy; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6680
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Issues in examining the impact of WTO reform on the Beef and Dairy Sectors in the European Union AgEcon
Binfield, Julian C.R.; Donnellan, Trevor; Hanrahan, Kevin F.; Westhoff, Patrick C..
This paper uses a partial equilibrium commodity model of the EU agricultural market to examine the impact on the EU of two possible trade reform scenarios that could emerge under a World Trade Organisation (WTO) agreement. It explores the potential outcome up to 2017 under these scenarios, against a 2008 Baseline where trade policies are unchanged. A particular feature of the paper is that it explores the issue of sensitive product designation in some detail. It demonstrates the complexity of the operation of tariffs and tariff rate quotas in key commodity markets and highlights how these complexities may produce different outcomes for particular commodity sectors. It is found that sensitive product designation is of value to the EU beef sector in...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices Agriculture in International Trade Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Q11; Q17; Q18.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51752
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Making the market: How U.S. Policy influences near term agriculture and biofuel industry production and profitability under technology adoption AgEcon
Meyer, Seth D.; Binfield, Julian C.R.; Westhoff, Patrick C..
The beneficiaries of technology adoption in agriculture and biofuels markets in the United States are heavily influenced by domestic biofuel policies and market context. Biofuel mandates, one of the key pillars of domestic biofuel policies, may significantly alter the elasticity of demand for biofuels as well as the derived demand for maize used to produce a significant share of ethanol in the United States. Using a stochastic agriculture and biofuels model, we assess how the introduction of technology may affect the crops and biofuel markets under binding and non-binding biofuel mandates and discuss the implications for analysis of EU biofuel policies.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Policy; Technology adoption; Mandates; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61089
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Model Closure and Price Formation Under Switching Grain Market Regimes in South Africa AgEcon
Meyer, Ferdinand H.; Westhoff, Patrick C.; Binfield, Julian C.R.; Kirsten, Johann F..
This paper develops the structure and closure of an econometric regime-switching model within a partial equilibrium framework that has the ability to generate reliable estimates and projections of endogenous variables under market switching regimes. Models used in policy evaluation usually either ignore the possibility of regime switching using just a single method of price determination based on average effects, or incorporate highly stylised components that may not reflect the complexities of a particular market. This paper proposes an approach that the authors believe allows the incorporation of features of regime switching in a multisector commodity level model that capture salient features of the South African market and therefore are able to produce...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25432
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Model closure and price formation under switching grain market regimes in South Africa AgEcon
Meyer, Ferdinand H.; Westhoff, Patrick C.; Binfield, Julian C.R.; Kirsten, Johann F..
This paper develops the structure and closure of an econometric regime-switching model within a partial equilibrium framework that has the ability to generate reliable estimates and projections of endogenous variables under market switching regimes. Models used in policy evaluation usually either ignore the possibility of regime switching using just a single method of price determination based on average effects, or incorporate highly stylised components that may not reflect the complexities of a particular market. This paper proposes an approach that the authors believe allows the incorporation of features of regime switching in a multisector commodity level model that capture salient features of the South African market and therefore are able to produce...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10139
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REFORMING THE CAP: A PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF THE MTR PROPOSALS AgEcon
Binfield, Julian C.R.; Westhoff, Patrick C.; Young, Robert E., II.
In the Mid-Term Review (MTR), the European Commission proposed a series of changes to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). An important part of these changes was significant decoupling of support payments from production. In this paper, a partial equilibrium model of the EU agricultural sector is used to estimate the potential impacts of the MTR proposals on EU and world agricultural markets over the period 2004-2009. Effects of the MTR proposals are evaluated by comparing estimated outcomes under the proposals to those that would result under a current-policy baseline. The changes that are made in the MTR have the effect of reducing the production of the major commodities by varying amounts based on the importance of payments in production and the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25856
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WHY STOCHASTICS MATTER: ANALYZING FARM AND BIOFUEL POLICIES AgEcon
Westhoff, Patrick C.; Brown, Scott; Binfield, Julian C.R..
Standard deterministic analysis of agricultural and biofuel policies can yield incomplete or misleading results. Stochastic analysis is especially important when policies have asymmetric effects and when there is intrinsic interest in uncommon events or the distribution of possible outcomes. The paper examines four recent cases where a stochastic approach was critical to a complete and balanced examination of important US policy issues. In each case, a stochastic model of the US agricultural and biofuel sectors was used to estimate 500 sets of possible market outcomes for the 2007- 2016 period. Changes in support levels, a proposed revenue-based program, possible World Trade Organization limits on internal support measures, and biofuel use mandates are...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Biofuels; Stochastic analysis; Structural model; Agricultural and Food Policy; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6601
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WTO Doha Round: Impact of an Agreement on Agriculture and the Importance of Sensitive Products AgEcon
Binfield, Julian C.R.; Donnellan, Trevor; Hanrahan, Kevin F.; Westhoff, Patrick C..
The Doha round of WTO negotiations has been ongoing since 2001. In the summer of 2008 the negotiations on the modalities for a new WTO agriculture agreement collapsed when seemingly on the verge of a successful conclusion. In this paper we present quantitative analysis of the impact of a new WTO agreement undertaken using a partial equilibrium model of Irish and EU agriculture. Results are presented on the agreement’s impact on Irish and EU-27 agriculture markets and on Irish agricultural sector incomes. Our analysis highlights the importance of the Baseline counter-factual, and will illustrate that protection afforded by the conferral of sensitive product status differs from commodity to commodity. The paper will draw conclusions concerning the economic...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: WTO; Agriculture; Policy analysis; Partial equilibrium modelling; Baseline; Scenario analysis; Tariffs; Tariff rate quota; Sensitive products; International Relations/Trade; Q11; Q17; Q18.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50936
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