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Ordenar por: RelevânciaAutorTítuloAnoImprime registros no formato resumido
Registros recuperados: 7
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Advisory Service Marketing Profiles for Corn in 2001 AgEcon
Colino, Evelyn V.; Cabrini, Silvina M.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37493
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Advisory Service Marketing Profiles for Corn over 2002-2004 AgEcon
Colino, Evelyn V.; Cabrini, Silvina M.; Aulerich, Nicole M.; Brandenberger, Tracy L.; Merrin, Robert P.; Shi, Wei; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes.
This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 2002, 2003 and 2004 corn crops. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program’s set of recommendations throughout the crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during the crop year. Marketing profiles provide information to evaluate the style of advisory services in several ways. The percentage of crop priced is a measure of within-crop year price risk. The higher the proportion of a crop priced, the lower the...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37484
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Advisory Service Marketing Profiles for Soybeans in 2001 AgEcon
Colino, Evelyn V.; Cabrini, Silvina M.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Joao, Martines-Filho.
This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 2001 soybean crop. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program’s set of recommendations throughout the crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during the crop year. Marketing profiles provide information to evaluate the style of advisory services in several ways. The percentage of crop priced is a measure of within-crop year price risk. The higher the proportion of a crop priced, the lower the sensitivity of the...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37507
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Advisory Service Marketing Profiles for Soybeans over 2002-2004 AgEcon
Colino, Evelyn V.; Cabrini, Silvina M.; Aulerich, Nicole M.; Brandenberger, Tracy L.; Merrin, Robert P.; Shi, Wei; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes.
This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 2002, 2003 and 2004 soybean crops. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program’s set of recommendations throughout the crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during the crop year. Marketing profiles provide information to evaluate the style of advisory services in several ways. The percentage of crop priced is a measure of within-crop year price risk. The higher the proportion of a crop priced, the lower the...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37485
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Do Composite Procedures Really Improve the Accuracy of Outlook Forecasts? AgEcon
Colino, Evelyn V.; Irwin, Scott H.; Garcia, Philip.
This paper investigates whether the accuracy of outlook hog price forecasts can be improved using composite forecasts in an out-of-sample context. Price forecasts from four wellrecognized outlook programs are combined with futures-based forecasts, ARIMA, and unrestricted Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. Quarterly data are available from 1975.I through 2007.IV, which allow for a relatively long out-of-sample evaluation period after permitting model specification and appropriate composite-weight training periods. Results show that futures and numerous composite procedures outperform outlook forecasts. At intermediate horizons, OLS composite procedures perform rather well. The superiority of futures and composite forecasts decreases at longer horizons...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Forecast combination; Outlook; Futures; Time-series; Out-of-sample; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53052
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How Much Can Outlook Forecasts be Improved? An Application to the U.S. Hog Market AgEcon
Colino, Evelyn V.; Irwin, Scott H.; Garcia, Philip.
This study investigates the predictability of outlook hog price forecasts released by Iowa State University relative to alternative market and time-series forecasts. The findings suggest that predictive performance of the outlook hog price forecasts can be improved substantially. Under RMSE, VARs estimated with Bayesian procedures that allow for some degree of flexibility and model averaging consistently outperform Iowa outlook estimates at all forecast horizons. Evidence from the encompassing tests, which are highly stringent tests of forecast performance, indicates that many price forecasts do provide incremental information relative to Iowa. Simple combinations of these models and outlook forecasts are able to reduce forecast errors by economically...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Forecast; Futures; Models; Prices; Time-series; Vector autoregression; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37620
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Outlook vs. Futures: Three Decades of Evidence in Hog and Cattle Markets AgEcon
Colino, Evelyn V.; Irwin, Scott H..
The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the accuracy of outlook forecasts relative to futures prices in hog and cattle markets. Published forecasts from four prominent livestock outlook programs are available for analysis. Most of the series begin in the mid- to late-1970s and end in 2006. Root mean squared error (RMSE) comparisons indicate, with one exception, no meaningful differences in forecast accuracy between outlook forecasts and futures prices. The null hypothesis that futures prices encompass outlook forecasts is rejected in 9 of 11 cases for hogs and 7 of 8 cases for cattle, clearly indicating that outlook forecasts provide incremental information not contained in futures prices. The magnitude of decline in RMSE from...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Cattle; Encompassing; Forecast; Futures price; Hogs; Outlook; RMSE.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37577
Registros recuperados: 7
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