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Accounting for agronomic rotations in crop production: A theoretical investigation and an empirical modeling framework AgEcon
Carpentier, Alain; Gohin, Alexandre; Letort, Elodie.
As far as crop acreage choices are concerned, a consensus seems to exist among agricultural scientists and extension agents: crop rotation effects and the related constraints are major determinants of farmers’ crop choices. Crop rotation effects are inherently dynamic. They are generally ignored in multicrop models with land as an allocable input found in the literature since most of these models are developed within a static framework. The aim of this paper is twofold (i) to propose a new approach and tools for investigating dynamic crop acreage choices accounting for crop rotation benefits and constraints and (ii) to illustrate the impacts of crop rotation effects and constraints on farmers’ acreage choices through simulation examples. The models...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop rotation; Dynamic programming; Acreage choice; Crop Production/Industries; Land Economics/Use; Q12; D21; D24; D92.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103431
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Assessing the 2003 CAP Reform: Sensitivity to the Decoupling of Agenda 2000 Direct Payments AgEcon
Gohin, Alexandre.
The European Union decided in June 2003 a new reform of its farm policy with a new step toward the decoupling of farm income support instruments. Available impact studies find that this reform will reduce production incentives, substantially for beef and to a lesser extent for arable crops. All these studies assume that the Agenda 2000 arable crop direct payments are already mostly decoupled while beef premiums are much more linked to production. Our main objective in this paper is to test the sensitivity of these results to this questionable modelling of Agenda 2000 direct payments which neglects eligibility rules and land market imperfections. Our analysis reveals that the negative effects of the reform on both arable crop and beef production are not...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Common Agricultural Policy; Decoupling; Computable General Equilibrium; European Union.; International Relations/Trade; D57; Q17; Q18.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18868
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Assessing the economic costs of an outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease on Brittany: A dynamic computable general equilibrium approach AgEcon
Gohin, Alexandre; Rault, Arnaud.
Epizootic outbreaks such as Foot and Mouth Disease are of great concern for agriculture. In this paper, we quantify the potential dynamic impacts of such a disease on Brittany, a French region with a strong livestock sector. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with rational expectations that allows us to measure the impacts of culling infected animals and restraining movements of live animals on the livestock sectors and downstream food industries. Our results show that economic losses are spread over many periods even with a one-time shock. The impacts on the primary sectors and downstream food sectors do not move in parallel. The food industries suffer most in the first period while the negative impacts on agriculture are mostly...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Dynamics; CGE; Animal disease; Catastrophic event; Risk and Uncertainty; Q11; Q18.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122438
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Bridging Micro- and Macro-Analyses of the EU Sugar Program: Methods and Insights AgEcon
Gohin, Alexandre; Bureau, Jean-Christophe.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25799
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COMMODITY INDEX FUNDS AND PRICE SWINGS: CONDITIONS OF CAUSALITY AgEcon
Gohin, Alexandre; Cordier, Jean.
The role played by “speculators” during the 2007/08 food price spike is lively disputed. Our analysis focuses on the increasing participation of index funds in agricultural commodity futures markets before the food price spike. Our central theme is to determine if their prespike massive entry does prepare the subsequent crisis by maintaining low stock levels. We develop a theoretical model explaining the behaviour of speculators and traders on futures and cash markets. We allow index funds to inflict an informational externality on commercial traders that is supposed to induce a lower desire to hold stock. We find out that, once the production decisions of commercial traders are taken into account into the model, the increased net long position of index...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Futures markets; Commodity price; Index funds; Stocks; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91283
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Estimating price elasticities of food trade functions: How relevant is the gravity approach? AgEcon
Femenia, Fabienne; Gohin, Alexandre.
The main objective of the paper is related to the long standing issue of the econometric estimation of price elasticity of food trade functions. We investigate the relevance of the prominent gravity approach. This approach is based on the assumptions of symmetric, monotone, homothetic, CES preferences. We test all these assumptions using European intra trade of cheese. In a general way, all assumptions made on preferences by the gravity approach are not supported by our data set. The bias induced on the estimated price elasticities is not univocal.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Elasticities; Trade; Generalized Maximum Entropy; Censored demand system; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7211
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Measuring farmers’ risk aversion: the unknown properties of the value function AgEcon
Cao, Ruixuan; Carpentier, Alain; Gohin, Alexandre.
We argue in this paper that available econometric estimates of farmers’ risk aversion do not measure true farmers’ preferences towards risky outcomes. Available analyses are mostly of static nature and indeed measure the parameters of the synthetic optimal value function rather than the deep parameters of the utility functions. We derive analytical and empirical results in a simple dynamic and stochastic framework showing that that there is not a simple relationship between utility functions and value functions when agents have many decision variables. In particular we find that the value function does not necessarily exhibit DARA when the instantaneous utility function satisfies DARA and conversely. We recommend performing dynamic econometric estimation...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114623
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On the (De)Stabilization Effects of Biofuels: Relative Contributions of Policy Instruments and Market Forces AgEcon
Gohin, Alexandre; Treguer, David.
Ethanol production has recently surged in response to biofuel policies and increased fossil oil prices. We develop a partial equilibrium model focused on U.S. corn-based ethanol production with downside risk-averse farmers to assess the consequences of ethanol production on agricultural volatility. We report substantial effects on the distribution of corn prices with increases in the variance of prices received by farmers. Risk-averse corn farmers still benefit due to the higher mean price effect. From a methodological perspective, this analysis reveals that downside risk aversion may be important.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Policy; Risk; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61061
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ON THE OPTIMAL IMPLEMENTATION OF AGRICULTURAL POLICY REFORMS AgEcon
Femenia, Fabienne; Gohin, Alexandre.
Economic analyses of farm policies generally focus on the long run, steady state impacts while the transition dynamics are often overlooked. In this paper we develop a determinist dynamic computable general equilibrium analysis allowing agents to form imperfect versus pefect expectations. Using an illustrative CAP reform scenario, we simulate an abrupt versus a gradual implementation of this reform. Our results show that if economic agents are able to perfectly anticipate the impacts of the reform, then delaying its implementation is never optimal. On the other hand, if agents gradually learn from market developments, then we find some cases where a gradual implementation of this reform is welfare improving. Such gradual implementation allows minimizing...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Dynamics; Transition; Farm Policies; Welfare; Agricultural and Food Policy; Political Economy.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91285
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Production Effects of Direct Payments to Active Farmers: a Microeconomic Dynamic and Stochastic Analysis AgEcon
Carpentier, Alain; Gohin, Alexandre; Heinzel, Christoph.
For the 2014-2020 phase of the Common Agricultural Policy, the European Commission has the opportunity to reduce the leakage of public support to landowners and to better target it towards active farmers. Our purpose is to assess whether shifting the basis of direct payments from land towards active farmers will significantly alter agricultural production decisions. In a dynamic and stochastic microeconomic framework, we identify the impact of this shift on the farm household’s production and consumption decisions. In the dynamic setting the production impacts of direct payments are much higher than previously quantified, because the “long run” absolute risk aversion (associated with the value function) is lower than the “short run” one (associated with...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122447
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PROMOTING MULTIFUNCTIONALITY WHILE MINIMIZING TRADE DISTORTION EFFECTS: THE RELATIVE MERITS OF TRADITIONAL POLICY INSTRUMENTS AgEcon
Gohin, Alexandre; Guyomard, Herve; Le Mouel, Chantal.
In relation to the growing debate around multifunctionality, this paper attempts to classify alternative measures of agricultural income support according to their ability in achieving three policy objectives (supporting agricultural income, promoting positive externalities and reducing negative ones) as well as to their induced trade distortion effects. Four income support programs are considered: a production-linked payment program, a land-based payment program and two decoupled payment programs. Their effectiveness as regards to the three policy objectives and their relatives induce trade distortion effects are examined on an equal cost/support basis through a conceptual framework that allows for free entry in the sector and the land price to adjust...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20468
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Sugar Market Liberalization: Modeling the EU Supply of "C" Sugar AgEcon
Gohin, Alexandre; Bureau, Jean-Christophe.
The various assessments of the effects of a liberalization of world sugar markets are largely inconsistent. One cause seems to be the modeling of the EU supply response. We investigate three possible linkages between production quota sugar and the out-of-quota or "C" sugar supply: i/ the existence of fixed costs covered by the in-quota sugar; ii /the "overshooting" behavior as prevention against poor yields; iii/ the production of C sugar as "reference building" in view of expected reforms. Modeling these effects results in the introduction of an implicit cross-subsidy between in quota sugar and C sugar. The resulting specification is included in a detailed model of EU agricultural sector so as to account for intersectoral linkages. We simulate the effects...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Common Agricultural Policy; Sugar; Modeling; General equilibrium models; Agricultural and Food Policy; D58; Q17; Q18.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24740
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The decoupling of farm programs: Revisiting the wealth effect AgEcon
Femenia, Fabienne; Gohin, Alexandre; Carpentier, Alain.
Recent reforms of agricultural policies in developed countries introduced direct payments to the detriment of traditional production enhancing instruments. Whereas these new instruments can influence production through several effects, current empirical studies do not show any significant impact on production; direct payments mainly increase land values. In this article, we revisit the evaluation of the coupling effects passing through the wealth of agricultural households. The initial wealth of these agents, while being mainly in form of land asset holding, is always assumed to be fixed. On the contrary we show theoretically and empirically that, once the impact of farm programs on initial wealth is properly accounted for, the measure of the coupling...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Decoupling; Wealth effect.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48107
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The Long-Run Impact of Energy Prices on World Agricultural Markets: The Role of Macro-Economic Linkages AgEcon
Chantret, Francois; Gohin, Alexandre.
The world prices of food and energy products have followed similar large swings in recent years. We investigate the long run relationship between these prices using a world Computable General Equilibrium model with detailed representations of food and energy markets. Particular attention is paid to specify macro-economic linkages which have often been overlooked in recent analysis and debate. We find that the omission of these macro-economic linkages has a substantial bearing on this relationship. A positive relationship due to the cost push effect has been identified in most analysis, but we find that the introduction of the real income effect may indeed imply a negative relationship between world food and energy prices. Accordingly, it is crucial to...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Oil prices; Agricultural prices; Computable general equilibrium model; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51560
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Welfare Decomposition in Computable General Equilibrium Models: A Path Independent Decomposition of the Equivalent Variation AgEcon
Gohin, Alexandre.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18866
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WTO Discipline and the CAP: the Constraints on the EU Sugar Sector AgEcon
Gohin, Alexandre; Bureau, Jean-Christophe.
The various assessments of the effects of a liberalization of world sugar markets are inconsistent with each other. One cause seems to be the modeling of the EU supply response. We investigate three possible linkages between sugar production under quota and the out-of-quota or "C" sugar supply: i/ the existence of fixed costs covered by the in-quota sugar; ii / the "overshooting" behavior as prevention against poor yields; iii/ the production of C sugar as "reference building" in view of expected reforms. Modeling these effects results in the introduction of an implicit crosssubsidy between in-quota sugar and C sugar. The resulting specification is included in a detailed model of the EU agricultural sector so as to account for intersectoral linkages. We...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Common agricultural policy; Sugar; General equilibrium models; WTO; International Relations/Trade; D58; Q17; Q18.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18872
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