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Registros recuperados: 15
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Accuracy Trends and Sources of Forecast Errors in WASDE Balance Sheet Categories for Corn and Soybeans AgEcon
Botto, Augusto C.; Isengildina, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L..
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21332
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ARE REVISIONS TO USDA CROP PRODUCTION FORECASTS SMOOTHED? AgEcon
Isengildina, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L..
This study investigates the nature of the revision process of USDA corn and soybean production forecasts over the 1970/71 through 2002/03 marketing years. Nordhaus' framework for testing the efficiency of fixed-event forecasts is used. In this framework, efficiency is based on independence of forecast revisions. Both parametric and non-parametric tests reject independence of consecutive forecast revisions. Positive correlation and consistency of directional changes in forecast revisions suggest that these forecasts are "smoothed." Estimates of the impact of smoothing on forecast accuracy show that correction for smoothing may result in economically meaningful improvements in accuracy.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19027
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COMPARISON OF CONVENTIONAL AND TRANSGENIC TECHNOLOGIES UNDER ALTERNATIVE CULTURAL PRACTICES FOR COTTON IN GEORGIA AgEcon
Ward, Clayton; White, Fred C.; Isengildina, Olga.
This study was conducted to determine allocative efficiency and cost effectiveness of growing conventional and transgenic cotton varieties under alternative cultural practices in South Georgia. A data envelopment model was used to compare costs and returns associated with various combinations of tillage and technology. The results suggest that combination of genetically modified cotton varieties and strip till cultivation practices yields a more efficient use of inputs relative to the level of output.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20499
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Complex Choices: Producers Risk Management Strategies AgEcon
Pennings, Joost M.E.; Isengildina, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Garcia, Philip; Frank, Julieta; Kuiper, W. Erno.
Producers have a wide variety of risk management instruments available. How do producers make a choice of risk management instruments? Using the recently developed choice bracketing framework, we examine what risk management strategies producers use and identify the factors that drive their risk management decisions. Our results identify that producers use a wide variety of combinations of risk management instruments and that they bracket their choices into sets of alternative risk management instruments. Using multinomial logit models to estimate the choice process provides information about the factors that influence producers' decision making. The results show that broad bracketing producers use different risk management instruments than narrow...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19550
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Crop Farmers’ Use of Market Advisory Services AgEcon
Isengildina, Olga; Pennings, Joost M.E.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L..
This study sought to examine the nature of farmers’ use of market advisory services based on the results of a survey of US crop producers. The survey revealed that market advisory service users tend to be significantly more risk seeking than non-users. Survey results indicated a large range in patterns of use of advisory services. Most farmers use advisory services to the greatest extent for marketing information, market analysis, and to keep up with markets. General guidelines (market strategies and price information) are utilized more than specific advice (e.g., specific pricing decisions, price forecasts). Only 11% of farmers reported that they closely follow the marketing recommendations provided by advisory services. Nonetheless, farmers report that...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37489
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DOES THE MARKET ANTICIPATE SMOOTHING IN USDA CROP PRODUCTION FORECASTS? AgEcon
Isengildina, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L..
This study examines whether market participants anticipate the predictable component in USDA revisions of corn and soybean production forecasts during 1970/71 through 2003/04 marketing years. The analysis revealed that markets consistently under-predicted October corn production revisions and over-predicted September soybean production revisions. These biases may be attributable to inefficient use of information about smoothing in USDA revisions. In all other cases market analysts seemed to be aware of USDA smoothing practices and generally efficiently incorporated this information into their own forecasts.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20145
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Empirical Confidence Intervals for WASDE Forecasts of Corn, Soybean and Wheat Prices AgEcon
Isengildina, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L..
This study suggests that confidence intervals for WASDE forecasts of corn, soybean, and wheat prices may be improved if they are estimated using an empirical approach. Empirical confidence intervals are calculated following Williams and Goodman's (1971) method and use historical forecast errors to estimate forecast error distributions which is then used to predict confidence limits for future forecast errors. Three procedures for empirical distribution estimation are compared: 1) histogram, 2) changing distribution, 3) fixed distribution. The results suggest that the fixed distribution approach using logistic distribution provided accurate confidence intervals for WASDE corn, soybean, and wheat price forecasts.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18995
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Factors Affecting Hedging Decisions Using Evidence from the Cotton Industry AgEcon
Isengildina, Olga; Hudson, Darren.
Few farmers utilize futures and options markets to price their crops despite significant educational efforts. This study seeks to analyze producer hedging behavior within the framework of the overall marketing behavior. Producer marketing behavior is modeled as a simultaneous choice between cash sales, cooperative marketing and forward contracts, and hedging. A multinomial logit model is used for empirical estimation using data from a survey administered to a sample of cotton producers from across the U.S. The most important factors that explain the use of forward pricing by cotton producers are producer preferences, farm size, use of crop insurance, risk aversion, income from government payments and off-farm income. Risk aversion, off-farm income, crop...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18970
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The Impact of Market Advisory Service Recommendations on Producers' Marketing Decisions AgEcon
Pennings, Joost M.E.; Isengildina, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L..
A conceptual framework is developed which provides insight into the factors affecting the impact of market advisory service (MAS) recommendations on producer pricing decisions. Data from a survey of 656 U.S. producers reveal that the perceived performance of the MAS, the way in which MAS recommendations are delivered, as well as the match between MAS and producers' marketing philosophy, are important factors explaining the impact of MAS recommendations. Risk attitude does not affect the impact of MAS recommendations on producers' decisions, suggesting producers are more interested in the price-enhancing characteristics of MAS advice than in its risk-reducing features. Key words: market advisory services, ordered probit model, producers' marketing decisions
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Market advisory services; Ordered probit model; Producers' marketing decisions; Marketing.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31104
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THE IMPACT OF MARKETING ADVISORY SERVICE RECOMMENDATIONS ON PRODUCERS' MARKETING DECISIONS AgEcon
Pennings, Joost M.E.; Isengildina, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L..
To date, there is only fragmented and anecdotal information about the impact of the recommendations of market advisory services (MAS) on producers'’ decision-making. A conceptual framework is developed in which, among others, producers’' risk attitudes and risk perceptions; producers’' perceptions about MAS performance and delivery; and match between the MAS and the producer’s' marketing philosophy are hypothesized to influence the impact of MAS on producers’' marketing decisions. Data from 656 U.S. producers were used and the impact of MAS on producers'’ marketing decisions was tested using an ordered probit model. The empirical results reveal that not only the perceived MAS performance, but also the way in which MAS recommendations are delivered, and the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20389
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The Value of USDA Situation and Outlook Information in Hog and Cattle Markets AgEcon
Good, Darrel L.; Irwin, Scott H.; Isengildina, Olga.
This study investigates the impact of six major USDA reports in hog and cattle markets: Cattle; Cattle on Feed; Cold Storage; Hogs and Pigs; Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (LDPO); and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). A TARCH-in-mean model, with dummy variables to measure the impact of USDA reports and other external factors, is used to model close-to-open live-lean hog and live cattle futures returns from January 1985 through December 2004. The analysis revealed a statistically significant impact of all but Cattle and Cold Storage reports in live/lean hog futures, and all but Cold Storage reports in live cattle futures. Hogs and Pigs reports had the highest impact on live/lean hog returns by increasing conditional standard...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Cattle; Event study; Hogs; Livestock; Public information; TARCH model; USDA reports; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8614
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The Value of USDA Situation and Outlook Information in Hog and Cattle Markets AgEcon
Isengildina, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L..
The economic value of public situation and outlook information has long been a subject of debate. The purpose of this study is to investigate the economic value of USDA reports in hog and cattle markets. The investigation is based on event study analysis, with the "events" consisting of the release of six major USDA situation and outlook reports for hogs and cattle from 1985 through 2003. These include Cattle, Cattle on Feed, Cold Storage, Hogs and Pigs, Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook (LDPO), and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports. As a result of the process of modeling volatility of hog and cattle prices, a TARCH-in-mean model was specified that closely followed the distribution of these price movements. The effects of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19050
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USDA INTERVAL FORECASTS OF CORN AND SOYBEAN PRICES: OVERCONFIDENCE OR RATIONAL INACCURACY? AgEcon
Isengildina, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L..
The USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) price forecasts are published in the form of an interval, but typically analyzed as point estimates. Thus, all information about uncertainty imbedded in the forecast is ignored. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the accuracy of WASDE price forecasts using methodology suitable for testing judgmental interval forecasts. Empirical analysis includes traditional statistical tests as well as an alternative behavioral evaluation (accuracy-informativeness tradeoff model). The results of the traditional analysis indicate overconfidence of WASDE price interval forecasts, while the results of the behavioral approach suggest rational inaccuracy.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Interval forecasts; Overconfidence; Rational inaccuracy; Accuracy-informativeness tradeoff; WASDE; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18987
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USING A COTTON FUTURES OPTIONS CONTRACT STRATEGY TO ENHANCE PRICE AND REVENUES AgEcon
Herndon, Cary W., Jr.; Cleveland, O.A.; Isengildina, Olga.
Government program changes and increased price volatility are causing cotton farmers to manage more price risks. A "harvest strategy" which sells cotton at harvest, purchases an at-the-money July call options and exercises this contract eight months later is a strategy which takes advantage of potential future price increases.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Futures Options Strategy; Price Risk Management; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21491
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What is the Deal with Local Food Systems: Or, Local Food Systems from a Regional Science Perspective AgEcon
Hughes, David W.; Eades, Daniel C.; Robinson, Kenneth L.; Carpio, Carlos E.; Isengildina, Olga; Brown, Cheryl.
Paper presented at the 54th Annual North American Meetings of the Regional Science Association International, Savannah GA, November 7th -10th, 2007. Preliminary version, please do not quote without permission of the contact author.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Community/Rural/Urban Development.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/112897
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