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Registros recuperados: 16
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Agricultural Market Performance in the EU after the 2000 and 2003 CAP Reform An Ex-post Evaluation based on AGMEMOD AgEcon
Banse, Martin; van Leeuwen, Myrna; Tabeau, Andrzej A.; Salamon, Petra; Ledebur, Oliver von.
The paper investigates the CAP impacts on the EU agriculture by means of policy simulations conducted with the AGMEMOD model. To isolate the policy effects in the historical period 2000-2005, counterfactual simulations for this period are run. To simulate the response of the EU agriculture on different policy changes in the period 2006-2020, a ‘no-policy change’ baseline scenario is developed and then policy experiments are conducted such as the abolition of milk quota, the implementation of the regional payments and some budget cuts. To identify the policy effects, the policy scenarios are compared with the ‘no-policy change’ baseline.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: CAP Reform; Ex-post evaluation; Agricultural sector modelling; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99366
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Corn Price Behavior – Volatility transmission during the boom on futures Markets AgEcon
Ledebur, Oliver von; Schmitz, Jochen.
Since 2000 a number of factors impacted agricultural markets drastically. Among these are structural changes in global demand and repeated supply constraints that supported the observed positive development of agricultural prices. Given the increasingly interdependent global markets, the question arises of in how far an isolated view of a single market, when analysing price volatility, is sufficient? The paper is a contribution to the debate on the recent commodity price bubble and the relationship among commodity futures markets for agricultural raw materials. More particularly, the transmission of price volatility between commodity future markets is analysed. The background question is whether and to what extent the volatility of agricultural commodity...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Commodity Futures; Corn; Time Series; Price volatility transmission; Multivariate GARCH; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58136
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DER EUROPAISCHE MILCHMARKT ZWISCHEN REFORM UND LIBERALISIERUNG AgEcon
Salamon, Petra; Ledebur, Oliver von.
Im Beitrag werden die Auswirkungen der Implementierung des MTR und der Abschaffung aller Exportsubventionen im Rahmen der Doha-Runde der WTO mit einem besonderen Augenmerk auf die Effekte im Milchsektor untersucht. Dazu werden Simulationen mit einem partiellen Marktmodell durchgeführt. Alle Milchprodukte einschließlich Rohmilch erfahren Preissenkungen, teilweise deutlich. Erwartungsgemäß sind die Auswirkungen der kombinierten Simulation von MTR und partieller Liberalisierung ausgeprägter als eine reine MTR Simulation. Variationsrechnungen bei dem besonders betroffenen Marktprodukt Butter verdeutlichen, dass bei zusätzlichen hohen Zollkürzungen der Nettoimport steigt.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14965
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EU ENLARGEMENT - A NEW DIMENSION AgEcon
Brockmeier, Martina; Herok, Claudia Anna; Ledebur, Oliver von; Salamon, Petra.
Enlarging the EU presents a tremendous effort with obstacles for old and new member states especially in the agricultural sector. In this paper, impacts of a new accession round were analyzed with the help of the comparative-static general equilibrium model GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project). The standard version was extended to allow for a better representation of specific instruments of the Common Agriculture Policy and the EU budget. To capture detailed effects in new member states, simulations were carried out for 12 candidate countries, the EU-15 and the rest of the world. As for products the focus lies on agriculture. Scenarios include an enlargement with and without the transfer of direct payments in the new member states, according to the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: EU enlargement; Common Agricultural Policy; EU budget; GE-modeling; Political Economy; D58; E62; F15; O52; Q18.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25893
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EU-Trade Agreements - What Are They Dealing With? AgEcon
Kurzweil, Marianne; Ledebur, Oliver von; Salamon, Petra.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25144
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Expansion of Mercosur's Agricultural Exports to the EU: An Empirical Assessment of the Trade Flows AgEcon
Niemi, Jyrki S.; Huan-Niemi, Ellen; Ledebur, Oliver von; Salamon, Petra.
This paper provides new evidence on income and price elasticities of demand for agricultural exports from Mercosur countries to the EU. Econometric models are constructed for eight agricultural commodities - beef, cocoa, coffee, orange juice, poultry, sugar, soya and wheat - exported from Mercosur to the EU. A modelling approach based on the error correction mechanism is used in order to emphasise the importance of the dynamics of trade functions. The results indicate that there is a relatively weak demand response to income and price changes in the EU. However, the results also suggest that relative-price variations affect significantly the demand for Mercosur commodity exports, implying that the exporter's market share is influenced by price...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural trade; European Union; Mercosur; Econometric models; Cointegration; International Relations/Trade; C22; Q17.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24606
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Health Check der EU-Agrarpolitik - Auswirkungen der Beschlüsse AgEcon
Gomann, Horst; Kleinhanss, Werner; Kreins, Peter; Ledebur, Oliver von; Offermann, Frank; Osterburg, Bernhard; Salamon, Petra.
Zusammenfassung: Der Agrarministerrat hat im November 2008 zum Health Check (HC) der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik (GAP) eine politische Einigung erzielt. Das Ziel der Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Verbraucherschutz ist es, aufbauend auf einer Wirkungsanalyse der Kommissionsvorschläge zum HC, die Konsequenzen der HC-Beschlüsse mit Hilfe des Modellverbundes der vTI-Agrarökonomie sowie mit einer statistischen Auswertung des EU-Testbetriebsnetzes (FADN) im Vergleich zu einer Referenzsituation im Zieljahr 2015 zu untersuchen. In der Referenzsituation wird eine langfristig positive Entwicklung im Agrarbereich unterstellt. Vor diesem Hintergrund wird in Deutschland nach den Modellergebnissen die Milcherzeugung nach...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Health Check; Gemeinsame Agrarpolitik; Modellgestützte Politikfolgenabschätzung; Common Agricultural Policy; Model-based impact analyses; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q12; Q15; Q18.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/102726
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Health Check der EU-Agrarpolitik - Auswirkungen der Legislativvorschläge AgEcon
Gomann, Horst; Heiden, Michael; Kleinhanss, Werner; Kreins, Peter; Ledebur, Oliver von; Offermann, Frank; Osterburg, Bernhard; Salamon, Petra.
Zusammenfassung: Die Europäische Kommission hat Mitte Mai 2008 Legislativvorschläge zum Health Check (HC) der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik (GAP) vorgelegt. Das Ziel der durchgeführten Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Verbraucherschutz ist es, die Wirkungen der HC-Vorschläge mit Hilfe des Modellverbundes der vTI-Agrarökonomie sowie mit einer statistischen Auswertung des EU-Testbetriebsnetzes (FADN) zu analysieren. Die Auswirkungen der HC-Vorschläge wurden in einer komparativ-statischen Betrachtung gegenüber einem Referenzszenario im Zieljahr 2015 analysiert. Nach den Modellberechnungen wird die Milcherzeugung in Deutschland nach Auslaufen der Quotenregelung um 6 % ausgedehnt. Dies impliziert ein Absinken des...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Health Check; Gemeinsame Agrarpolitik; Modellgestützte Politikfolgenabschätzung; Common Agricultural Policy; Model-based impact analyses; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q12; Q15; Q18.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/102725
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Impact of Russia and Ukraine on the international price formation and the EU markets - A Model based analysis AgEcon
Banse, Martin; Salamon, Petra; Ledebur, Oliver von; van Leeuwen, Myrna; Bouma, Foppe; Salputra, Guna; Fellmann, Thomas; Nekhay, Olexandr.
This paper examines the effect of the future developments of Russian and Ukrainian agricultural sectors and their impact on the world market prices for arable crops. Employed in the study is AGMEMOD, a partial equilibrium economic model of EU agriculture at the Member State level that has been extended by Russia and Ukraine to gain quantitative insights. Vital for the project has also been the integration of an endogenous world market price module including a stylized Rest of the World (ROW) model. In Russia and Ukraine, there is a strong focus on plant production in general and on grain based animal production; Russia and Ukraine are mostly net-exports of those products. Under the baseline, in Russia prices for crops and oilseeds are below the world...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Partial equilibrium model; Price formation; Russia; Ukraine; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122536
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MODELLING IMPACTS OF SOME EUROPEAN BIOFUEL MEASURES AgEcon
Ledebur, Oliver von; Salamon, Petra; Zimmermann, Andrei; van Leeuwen, Myrna; Tabeau, Andrzej A.; Chantreuil, Frederic.
Against the background of increasing concerns regarding the energy supply security as well as environmental concern the interest for renewable energy sources has increased in recent years. The biofuel sector, backed by public policies, experienced a strong increase in and outside Europe. A methodology that allows for the estimation of the impacts of the fulfilment of the proposed biofuel targets in the EU member states is proposed and implemented in the AGMEMOD model for France and Germany. The so called normative approach, based on the use of a logistic function as biofuel demand function allows to perform simulations to assess the impact of the biofuel demand expansion on agricultural markets. The implemented approach and the simulation results indicate...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Biofuel targets; Biodiesel; Ethanol; Modelling; Crop Production/Industries; Public Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6649
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Preisvolatilität auf landwirtschaftlichen Märkten AgEcon
Ledebur, Oliver von; Schmitz, Jochen.
Zusammenfassung: In diesem Beitrag wird die Entwicklung der Preisvolatilität auf deutschen Agrarmärkten analysiert. Ziel ist es das Ausmaß der Preisvolatilität auf ausgewählte deutsche Agrarmärkte zu quantifizieren und festzustellen inwiefern sie sich im Zeitablauf verändert hat. Soweit möglich wird eine Vergleichbarkeit zwischen den Entwicklungen auf nationalen und internationalen Produktmärkten hergestellt, bzw. es werden die jeweiligen Entwicklungen zueinander in Bezug gestellt. In diesem Zusammenhang gestellte Fragen sind: – Hat es eine Erhöhung der Preisvolatilität gegeben? – Stammt diese aus den Weltmärkten? – Welche Auswirkungen hat die Preisvolatilität auf die Marktakteure? – Welche Rolle spielen dabei die Instrumente der Agrarpolitik und...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Volatilität; Deutsche Agrarmärkte; Agrarpolitik; Volatility; German agricultural markets; Agricultural policy; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Q11; Q13; Q18.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/104075
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Price volatility on the German Agricultural Markets AgEcon
Ledebur, Oliver von; Schmitz, Jochen.
In this contribution, the development of price volatility on German agricultural markets is analyzed. We quantify the degree of price volatility for selected German agricultural markets and determine how it evolves over time and search for policy driven structural changes in volatility levels measured by the historical volatility. Based on annualised historical volatilities t test were performed to identify if the change in the volatility levels show any relationship to the process of reform of the CAP. An increase in volatility could be identified for the main German markets regulated by the Common Market Organisations. A positive relationship among the reform process of the CAP and the changes of the volatility levels could be identified particularly for...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Volatility; German agricultural markets; Agricultural policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q11; Q13; Q18.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122534
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Renewable energy - new forces in global ethanol trade? AgEcon
Salamon, Petra; Ledebur, Oliver von; Elmahdi, Kamal; Klepper, Rainer.
The paper presents an extended gravity equation application for the global trade with ethanol. The background and different attempts for a theoretical foundation of the standard approach are discussed. The econometric work takes regional integration schemes into account, as well as the influence of the production factor agricultural land and the level of oil prices on the world market. Results indicate that global bilateral trade flows of ethanol can be explained by a set of comprehensive explanatory variables, including regional agreements and the price level of oil. From a global perspective the EU effect on trade flows is trade diverting as the regional agreement reduces the linkage to world markets and increases the intra-regional level of trade with...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Gravity equation; Bilateral trade flows; Trade with renewable energy; Biofuels; And econometric estimation; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10045
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Review of Trade Agreements and Issues AgEcon
Kurzweil, Marianne; Ledebur, Oliver von; Salamon, Petra.
Along with multilateral agreements such as the WTO agreement, the EU evolved different trade agreements to induce European integration, perpetuate economic relations with former colonies and improve relations with developing, emerging and transitional countries by granting trade preferences. Common features of the EU preferential agreements are that they: cover general trade; allow a phasing-in period with a fast implementation in non-agricultural sectors (except for textiles); grant preferences for sensitive products of agri-food sectors (e.g. sugar, beef, bananas and dairy products) in terms of tariff-rate quotas (limited imports by reduced most-favoured nation rates); implement special safeguards, because the CAP is regarded as the ultimate objective;...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25130
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STRUKTUR UND POTENTIALE DES AGRARAUSSENHANDELS MITTEL- UND OSTEUROPAS AgEcon
Fock, Achim; Ledebur, Oliver von.
This paper analyzes agricultural trade developments in the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) since the beginning of the transformation process, and estimates CEEC agricultural trade potentials. The competitiveness of the agricultural sector as a whole is quantified using revealed comparative advantage indices. These indicate a comparative advantage for the CEEC in the agricultural sector. This strength is likely to accelerate CEEC agricultural trade growth which started in 1993. Such a development could yield in high political pressure since some of the countries of the first EU accession round like Hungary or the Czech Republic show a high complementarity in their agricultural trade with EU. Some basic factors such as income, population and...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14914
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The 2007 emerging corn price surge revisited – Was it expected or a large surprise? AgEcon
Schmitz, Jochen; Ledebur, Oliver von.
Point forecasts are a common method to classify uncertain future outcomes. In the option price literature the concept of implied volatility is well known. This concept is used to get a forward looking indicator about the future volatility. Nowadays market expectations can be extracted in numerous ways. One of the first articles regarding this topic in the area of exchange rates and interest rates was Sölderlind and Svensson (1997). Extracting market expectations is not only focused on point forecasts. A more ambitious approach is to extract the whole possible range of market expectations out of option prices. This concept is called risk-neutral density (RND). Most agricultural markets undergo some remarkable price movements in the last 4 years. The reasons...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk neutral density; Market expectations; Futures prices; Corn market; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics; Political Economy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Q14; C53; C58; G17.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123971
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