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Forecasting Housing Prices: Dynamic Factor Model versus LBVAR Model AgEcon
Li, Yarui; Leatham, David J..
The purpose of this paper is to compare the forecasting power of DFM and LBVAR models as they are used to forecast house price growth rates for 42 metropolitan areas in the United States. The forecasting performances of these two large-scale models are compared based on the Theil U-statistic.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Housing market; DFM; LBVAR; Dynamic PCA; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103667
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LL601 Contamination and Its Impact on U.S. Rice Prices AgEcon
Li, Yarui; Wailes, Eric J.; McKenzie, Andrew M.; Thomsen, Michael R..
LL601 is a genetically modified rice variety and unapproved for commercial use. Its presence was found in commercial shipments of U.S. rice in 2006. This article explores its impact on prices and volume marketed for both the United States and Thailand, the major export competitor. The results show a significantly adverse but short duration effect on the U.S. rice market and little to no effect on the Thai rice market.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Cointegration; Error correction model; Event study analysis; GM contamination; LibertyLink Rice 601; U.S. rice exports; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; International Relations/Trade; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; C10; C32; Q11; A52.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57154
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The Causality of Foreign Direct Investment and Its Effects on Economic Growth: Re-estimated by a Directed Graph Approach AgEcon
Li, Yarui; Woodard, Joshua D.; Leatham, David J..
This paper uses the directed acyclic graph approach to analyze the causal patterns among foreign direct investment and other economic, social, and political variables, including GDP per capita as a proxy for economic growth. We find that economic growth causes FDI inflows for developing countries, while FDI induces economic growth for developed countries. Also, stock market is found to be an intermediary that amplifies the influence on FDI from many causal variables of FDI.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: FDI; Economic growth; DAG; Financial Economics.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98791
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