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Plausible futures of a social-ecological system: Yahara watershed, Wisconsin, USA Ecology and Society
Carpenter, Stephen R; Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison; srcarpen@wisc.edu; Booth, Eric G.; Department of Agronomy, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison; egbooth@wisc.edu; Gillon, Sean; Department of Food Systems and Society, Marylhurst University; Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison; sgillon@marylhurst.edu; Kucharik, Christopher J.; Department of Agronomy, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Nelson Institute Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin-Madison; kucharik@wisc.edu; Loheide, Steven; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Loheide@wisc.edu; Mase, Amber S.; Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Mase@wisc.edu; Motew, Melissa; Nelson Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Motew@wisc.edu; Qiu, Jiangxiao; Department of Zoology, University of Wisconsin-Madison; jqiu7@wisc.edu; Rissman, Adena R; Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison; ARRissman@wisc.edu; Seifert, Jenny; Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison; JSeifert2@wisc.edu; Soylu, Evren; Department of Civil Engineering, Meliksah University; Nelson Institute for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin-Madison; evrensoylu@gmail.com; Turner, Monica; Department of Zoology, University of Wisconsin-Madison; turnermg @ wisc.edu; Wardropper, Chloe B; Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Wardropper@wisc.edu.
Agricultural watersheds are affected by changes in climate, land use, agricultural practices, and human demand for energy, food, and water resources. In this context, we analyzed the agricultural, urbanizing Yahara watershed (size: 1345 km², population: 372,000) to assess its responses to multiple changing drivers. We measured recent trends in land use/cover and water quality of the watershed, spatial patterns of 10 ecosystem services, and spatial patterns and nestedness of governance. We developed scenarios for the future of the Yahara watershed by integrating trends and events from the global scenarios literature, perspectives of stakeholders, and models of biophysical drivers and ecosystem services. Four qualitative scenarios were created to...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Alternative futures; Climate; Ecosystem services; Eutrophication; Governance; Lakes; Land-use change; Phosphorus; Scenarios.
Ano: 2015
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