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A FARM LEVEL ANALYSIS OF THE RELATION BETWEEN CAP REFORMS AND LOCAL ENVIRONMENTAL LEGISLATIONS: HOW AND IN WHICH EXTENT FLEMISH DAIRY FARMERS CAN FILL UP EXTRA MILK QUOTA? AgEcon
Van der Straeten, Bart; Buysse, Jeroen; Nolte, Stephan; Marchand, Fleur L.; Lauwers, Ludwig H.; Claeys, Dakerlia; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido.
The agricultural policies shift gradually from EU-level organised market interventions to local organised environmental policies. This paper explores the growth possibilities of the Flemish dairy sector with the outlook of a quota abolishment as a case study of this policy shift. The dairy quota policy seems very restrictive for the highly profitable Flemish dairy sector, but the environmental restrictions from the manure regulation can limit the growth of the dairy sector as well. The paper uses a spatial multi-agent simulation model applied to a sample of 40.000 farms to estimate price development of emission rights and their possible impact on the growth of the dairy production. The results show that a higher milk production leads to higher prices for...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Milk quota; Manure emission rights; Mathematical programming; Flanders; Agricultural and Food Policy; Industrial Organization; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C02; C61; L11; Q18.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44846
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Der Markt für Zucker AgEcon
Nolte, Stephan; Grethe, Harald.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97522
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Entwicklung und Zukunft der EU – Agrarhandelspräferenzen für die südlichen und östlichen Mittelmeeranrainerstaaten AgEcon
Grethe, Harald; Nolte, Stephan; Tangermann, Stefan.
The EU has recently completed negotiating a series of association agreements with mediterranean countries. Trade preferences for agricultural goods which are granted under these agreements as well as under former arrangements are analyzed by calculating the value of preference margins at several stages in the evolution of preferences. The total value of preference margins for all countries covered was about € 130 million under the agreements in the midseventies and increased by 48 per cent until 1995. It was eroded by about 14 per cent until 2000 due to the reduction of EU MFN tariffs. The extended preferences under the new agreements more than compensate for this erosion of preferences and result in a total value of preference margins of € 226 million...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Preferential trade; Preference margin; Mediterranean countries; Euro-Mediterranean Agreements; Preference erosion; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97393
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Food Quality Standards in Equilibrium Models: A Discussion of Current Modeling Approaches AgEcon
Nolte, Stephan; Rau, Marie-Luise.
Throughout recent year food quality standards have become a ubiquitous phenomenon that nationally and globally influences agri-food markets. With equilibrium models commonly used in the quantitative analysis of market and trade effects, we review possible approaches to modeling standards existent in the literature, elaborate the reasoning behind them and discuss their suitability to reflect "real world" situations. While the modeling approaches identified may respectively depict a specific situation, they may not be appropriate in others. That is they capture certain effects of standards only. With increasing ability to account for the various effects of standards, the modeling approaches become more complex and the data requirements increase.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Food quality; Standards; Modeling approaches; Equilibrium models; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; F1; C6; Q18.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25653
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Impact of Trade Liberalization and World Price Changes in Bangladesh: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis AgEcon
Alam, Mohammad Jahangir; Buysse, Jeroen; Begum, Ismat Ara; Nolte, Stephan; Wailes, Eric J.; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido.
The paper analyzes the impact of trade liberalization and changes in world prices of agricultural commodities in Bangladesh using single country CGE model. Since the agricultural sector is sensitive to overall employment, household welfare and food security, the analysis focuses on the changes in agricultural production, consumption, household income and welfare. The results show that trade liberalization increases the welfare of all household groups while world market price increases decrease welfare. It means that although trade liberalization generates a welfare increase for households but this is dependent on the relative level of world commodity prices. Our results are based on the analysis of aggregate household groups, so it may be of future...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Static; CGE; Trade policy; World prices; Agricultural commodities; Bangladesh; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Security and Poverty; International Development; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123724
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Modellierung der Auswirkungen einer Entkopplung der Direktzahlungen in der EU auf die Flächenallokation und Wiederkäuerproduktion: Eine Analyse unterschiedlicher Modellergebnisse AgEcon
Balkhausen, Oliver; Banse, Martin; Grethe, Harald; Nolte, Stephan.
Decoupling of direct payments can be expected to have complex effects and the net effect on crop and fodder acreage is unclear. A literature review reveals that various simulation models uniformly project a decline of the cereal and silage maize acreage as well as ruminant production in the EU-15 in the course of decoupling of direct payments. In contrast, model results are mixed with respect to the direction of the decoupling effect on oilseed and pasture as well as voluntary set aside area. The model type is not found to have a systematic effect on model results. It is rather the assumptions about the effects of direct payments on production which differ widely and drive model results to a large extent. A model analysis which is based on the partial...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Decoupling; Direct payments; Land allocation; Partial equilibrium agricultural sector models; Agricultural and Food Policy; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97401
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Modelling the effects of an abolition of the EU sugar quota on internal prices, production and imports AgEcon
Nolte, Stephan; Buysse, Jeroen; Van der Straeten, Bart; Claeys, Dakerlia; Lauwers, Ludwig H.; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido.
We apply a spatial price equilibrium model of the world sugar market to simulate an abolishment of the EU quota system in 2015/16. To overcome the normative nature of the approach, we calibrate the model by attaching a non-linear cost term to each trade flow. This is in some regards similar to positive mathematical programming. We suggest an economic interpretation and an econometric specification of the cost term. Production in the EU increases to almost 16 million tons. Twelve member states increase production, seven reduce it. Preferential imports are significantly reduced. Simulated effects are found to be more pronounced the higher the world market price.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: CAP; Structural change; Sugar; TRQ; Spatial modelling; Trade preferences; PMP; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61346
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MODELLING THE EFFECTS OF EU SUGAR MARKET LIBERALIZATION ON AREA ALLOCATION, PRODUCTION AND TRADE AgEcon
Grethe, Harald; Nolte, Stephan; Banse, Martin.
This paper presents a partial equilibrium simulation analysis of EU sugar market reforms with a version of the European Simulation Model (ESIM) addressing three issues: preferential EU imports are a function of the price differential between world market and EU price, EU supply functions are estimated based on FADN data, and the production of bioethanol in the EU and the rest of the world is taken into account as an important component in sugar beet and sugar cane demand. It is found that the current sugar market reform including the restructuring process until the end of 2007 is sufficient to allow the EU to comply with its WTO commitments only very narrowly. EU sugar supply is simulated to decrease from roughly 19 million tons in the base period to 15.5...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Sugar; Common Agricultural Policy; Sugar Market Reform; Partial Equilibrium Modelling; Everything But Arms; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6329
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Optimisation of policy interventions in environmental quota AgEcon
Buysse, Jeroen; Van der Straeten, Bart; Nolte, Stephan; Claeys, Dakerlia; Lauwers, Ludwig H.; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido.
The paper analyses the governance choices in production quota with the Flemish nutrient production rights as a case. A static model of quota trade in the short run shows the inefficiency of discrete non-auctioned trade with fixed transaction costs. This model also shows that an obligation to quota sellers to stop their production stimulates structural change. A dynamic model of trade indicates that the measures taken to prevent speculative behaviour causes inefficiencies and stimulates overuse of quota if the penalties are too low. Finally, the dynamic model indicates that a flat rate reduction on traded quota combined with too low penalties for overuse stimulate the total production.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Production rights; Quota; Dynamic programming; Transaction costs; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61084
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Policy intervention in a concentration permit market: efficiency analysis of obligatory manure processing in Flanders AgEcon
Van der Straeten, Bart; Buysse, Jeroen; Nolte, Stephan; Lauwers, Ludwig H.; Claeys, Dakerlia; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114832
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Price Transmission in the German Sugar Market AgEcon
Nolte, Stephan; Natanelov, Valeri; Buysse, Jeroen; van Huylenbroeck, Guido.
The German sugar market is governed by the European Union’s common market organization (CMO). In 2006, the CMO was subject to its first major reform. Among others, the administered price for sugar was reduced by 36%. We use a data set with monthly prices for sugar and sugar containing products to perform a cointegration analysis. Results show that the reduction of the institutional price has led to a reduction of wholesale prices and of retail prices for table sugar. Prices for sugar containing products are barely integrated with the sugar price, though. Some are found to be integrated with the CPI for food and soft drinks. In none of the cases where linear cointegration could not be detected, threshold cointegration could be found.
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Sugar; EU’s Common Agricultural Policy; Price Transmission; Co-integration; Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124351
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The application of spatial models in the analysis of bilateral trade flows: An alternative to the Armington approach for the world sugar market AgEcon
Nolte, Stephan.
This paper suggests spatial models as an alternative to the Armington approach to model bilateral trade. While the use of spatial models has been accepted for decades, they are rarely chosen for such analyses. However, problems inherent in the application of the Armington approach can be overcome through the use of spatial models. To demonstrate, a simple spatial model of the world sugar market is built and used to simulate a multilateral liberalization scenario. Additionally, an identical model is constructed, applying the Armington approach. The results of the spatial model of the sugar market are found to be more plausible than those generated by the Armington-based model.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Bilateral trade; Trade preferences; Partial equilibrium models; Armington approach; Sugar; International Relations/Trade; F11; F15; C69.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10288
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The Development and Future of EU Agricultural Trade Preferences for North-African and Near-East Countries AgEcon
Grethe, Harald; Nolte, Stephan; Tangermann, Stefan.
The EU recently completed negotiating a series of Association Agreements with Mediterranean countries. Trade preferences for agricultural goods granted under these Agreements, as well as under former arrangements, are analyzed by calculating the value of preference margins at several stages in the evolution of preferences. The total value of preference margins for all countries covered was about €130 million under the agreements of the mid-1970s and increased by 48 per cent until 1995; by 2000 this value declined by about 14 per cent due to reduced EU MFN tariffs. The extended preferences under the new Agreements more than compensate for this decline and will result in a total value of preference margins of €226 million once all Agreements have entered...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Preferential trade; Preference margin; Mediterranean countries; Euro-Mediterranean Agreements; Preference erosion; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24535
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The effect of EU derogation strategies on the complying costs of the nitrate directive AgEcon
Van der Straeten, Bart; Buysse, Jeroen; Nolte, Stephan; Lauwers, Ludwig H.; Claeys, Dakerlia; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido.
Within the framework of the nitrate directive, member states have the possibility to apply for derogation, i.e. increasing fertilization standards under certain conditions. Several EU regions have made use of this possibility but all in a different way. In 2009, 6 different derogation policies were worked out. This paper focuses on the differences between the applied policies and makes an assessment of the impact of these differences on the application rate of derogation, the manure surplus and the costs to allocate the manure. Based on the MP-MAS model described by Van der Straeten et al. (2010) the different scenarios are applied on a single case area (Flanders) and the economic effects have been simulated. Results show large differences between the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Nitrate directive; MAS-model; Derogation; Flanders; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q12; Q18; Q51; Q52.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99426
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THE FUTURE OF THE WORLD SUGAR MARKET--A SPATIAL PRICE EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS AgEcon
Nolte, Stephan.
A spatial price equilibrium (SPE) model of the world sugar market is programmed. The model covers more than hundred regions and contains sugar in as a sole product. It has a detailed coverage of policies and bilateral trade agreements. It is programmed as a mixed complementarity problem (MCP) in GAMS and uses the PATH solver. The SPE framework offers considerable advantages over other model approaches applied to the sugar market before. Four scenarios are simulated: A baseline scenario until 2015/16, accounting for implementation of the EU reform and market access commitments already decided upon. The liberalization scenarios include an implementation of the Falconer proposal for the current round of WTO negotiations, a full liberalization by the EU and a...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Sugar; Partial Equilibrium Model; Spatial Price Equilibrium Model; MCP; Crop Production/Industries; International Relations/Trade; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6663
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The sampling bias in multi-agent simulation models AgEcon
Buysse, Jeroen; Frija, Aymen; Van der Straeten, Bart; Nolte, Stephan; Lauwers, Ludwig H.; Claeys, Dakerlia; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido.
For practical considerations, it is in some case impossible to simulate MAS models at population level. The current paper shows that MAS models applied to samples with heterogeneous costs of interactions between agents have biased results. Heterogeneous costs of interactions in MAS models can come from the spatial dimension in MAS models or from fixed costs per interaction. The paper presents two correction procedures to remove the sampling bias and to increase the reliability of the outcome. The correction procedures can be very promising for future applications of MAS models because it becomes possible to deploy more complex models without bias on more detailed datasets that are only available at sample level, which will be the case for country- or...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: MAS; Bias; Correction; Resampling; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q12; Q18; Q51; Q52.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99599
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