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Registros recuperados: 32
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A Mixed Effects Model of Crop Yields for Purposes of Premium Determination AgEcon
Roberts, Michael J.; Tack, Jesse B..
Farm income is highly variable due to annual price and yield uncertainties. The federally subsidized crop insurance program is an important tool for managing this risk, and has grown from a relatively modest program to one that encompasses the majority of productive cropland in the country. The success of this program depends on identification of actuarially fair insurance premium rates, which in turn depends on accurate estimation of farm-level yield distributions. We use the confidential U.S. Department of Agriculture Risk Management Agency (RMA) panel dataset to estimate farm-specific distributions of yields and actually fair crop insurance premiums. Our ongoing work includes using the difference between our estimated actually fair premiums and RMA's to...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Yield; Crop Insurance; Policy; Mixed Model; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103405
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CHEMICAL AND FERTILIZER APPLICATIONS IN RESPONSE TO CROP INSURANCE: EVIDENCE FROM CENSUS MICRO DATA AgEcon
Roberts, Michael J.; O'Donoghue, Erik J.; Key, Nigel D..
This paper presents preliminary evidence on the effect of crop insurance on fertilizer and chemical inputs in agriculture. Our estimates are based on two sources of identification that emerge from a policy change concerning insurance subsidies that approximately doubled total premiums and the share of acres insured. First, we compare per-acre applications on these inputs from the same farms before and after the policy change. Second, we compare farm-level changes in input applications to differential changes in coverage growth induced by the policy change. We are able to make this second comparison because farms in some regions were more heavily insured than others before the policy change so they were not required to increase coverage in order to...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21895
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Commodity Payments, Farm Business Survival, and Farm Size Growth AgEcon
Key, Nigel D.; Roberts, Michael J..
In the last 25 years, U.S. crop farms have steadily declined in number and grown in average size, as production has shifted to larger operations. Larger farms tend to receive more commodity program payments because most payments are tied to a farm’s current or historical production, but whether payments have contributed to farm growth is uncertain. This study uses farm-level data from the census of agriculture to determine whether there is a statistical relationship between farm commodity program payments and greater concentration in production. The analysis indicates that, at the regional level, higher commodity program payments per acre are associated with subsequent farm growth. Also, higher payments per acre are associated with higher rates of farm...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Agricultural payments; Farm size; Farm survival; Concentration; Consolidation; Government payments; Commodity programs.; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55968
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DECOUPLED PAYMENTS IN A CHANGING POLICY SETTING AgEcon
Ahearn, Mary Clare; Collender, Robert N.; Diao, Xinshen; Harrington, David H.; Hoppe, Robert A.; Korb, Penelope J.; Makki, Shiva S.; Morehart, Mitchell J.; Roberts, Michael J.; Roe, Terry L.; Somwaru, Agapi; Vandeveer, Monte; Westcott, Paul C.; Young, C. Edwin.
The studies in this report analyze the effects of decoupled payments in the Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act on recipient households, and assess land, labor, risk management, and capital market conditions that can lead to links between decoupled payments and production choices. Each study contributes a different perspective to understanding the response of U.S. farm households and production to decoupled income transfers. Some use new microdata on farm households collected through USDA's Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS), initiated in 1996, and its predecessor survey. These data are used to compare household and producer behavior and outcomes before and after the FAIR Act. Other studies use applied or conceptual models to...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33981
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Did the Baby Boom Cause the Farm-Size Boom? AgEcon
Roberts, Michael J.; Key, Nigel D..
Growing farm size has generally been explained by technological advances that have allowed farmers to substitute capital for labor. Another possible factor in explaining recent farm size is the demographic shift: the age distribution of farmers has shifted to the right and older farmers generally operate larger farms than younger farmers. This paper uses data from the 1982, 1987, 1992, 1997, and 2002 Agricultural Censuses to examine the relative importance of the demographic shift versus technological factors in explaining overall farm size growth. Results indicate that farm sizes tend to increase with age and that, holding age constant, the typical farm-size has increased over time for all ages, presumably due to technological change. The...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Farm structure; Demographic shift; Age distribution; Farm size distribution; Farm Management; Industrial Organization; Labor and Human Capital.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6087
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Do Government Payments Influence Farm Business Survival? AgEcon
Key, Nigel D.; Roberts, Michael J..
Using a unique farm-level panel data set derived from three U.S. Agricultural Censuses, we estimate a Cox proportional hazard model to examine the effect of direct government payments on the survival of farm businesses, paying particular attention to the differential effect of payments across farm size categories. For identification the study exploits variation in payments resulting from historical differences in '‘base acreage'’ in otherwise similar farms. We find an increase in government payments has a small but statistically significant positive effect on the rate of farm survival, and the magnitude of this effect increases with farm size.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19248
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Do Government Payments Influence Farm Size and Survival? AgEcon
Key, Nigel D.; Roberts, Michael J..
Using farm-level data from the 1987, 1992, and 1997 Census of Agriculture, this study estimates what effect agricultural payments have had on the likelihood of farm business survival and on farm size. The unique panel data set permits conditioning current farm size on past farm size, which removes much of the individual heterogeneity of farms that could be spuriously correlated with payment levels. Results indicate that between consecutive censuses, past per acre payments have a significant positive effect on farm business survival and a small yet significant influence on the size of continuing farms.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agricultural payments; Exit rate; Farm size; Growth; Payment limits; Survival; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Farm Management.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8645
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Does Crop Insurance Affect Crop Yields? AgEcon
Roberts, Michael J.; O'Donoghue, Erik J.; Key, Nigel D..
We use administrative data from the Federal crop insurance program to examine how yield distributions change as farmers cycle into and out of the program. We are able to do this by linking many years of crop insurance data by individual farm conditioning observed yields on the particular county and year in which they are observed. Armed with millions of observations, we examine many states and five major crops: corn, soybeans, wheat, rice and cotton. We find little evidence that yield distributions are affected by insurance. An exception is rice in Arkansas, where insurance shifts the distribution markedly downward.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9828
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Does risk matter for farm businesses? The effect of crop insurance on production and diversification. AgEcon
O'Donoghue, Erik J.; Key, Nigel D.; Roberts, Michael J..
We use a large increase in Federal crop insurance subsidies as a natural experiment to identify the impact of risk on acreage and diversification decisions. Subsidy increases induced greater crop insurance coverage, which reduced farmers' financial risks. Did this change in the risk environment alter production decisions? We merged crop insurance participation data with farm-level Agricultural Census data from 1992 and 1997 to examine how harvested acreage and diversification changed in response to the policy-induced change in insurance coverage. The difference in differences empirical approach controls for unobservable heterogeneity and our results are robust across multiple definitions of our key variables and various fixed effects. We find that...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19397
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ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF AGRICULTURAL LAND-USE CHANGE: THE ROLE OF ECONOMICS AND POLICY AgEcon
Lubowski, Ruben N.; Bucholtz, Shawn; Claassen, Roger; Roberts, Michael J.; Cooper, Joseph C.; Gueorguieva, Anna; Johansson, Robert C..
This report examines evidence on the relationship between agricultural land-use changes, soil productivity, and indicators of environmental sensitivity. If cropland that shifts in and out of production is less productive and more environmentally sensitive than other cropland, policy-induced changes in land use could have production effects that are smaller-and environmental impacts that are greater-than anticipated. To illustrate this possibility, this report examines environmental outcomes stemming from landuse conversion caused by two agricultural programs that others have identified as potentially having important influences on land use and environmental quality: Federal crop insurance subsidies and the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), the Nation's...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Conservation Reserve Program (CRP); Crop insurance; Erosion; Extensive margin; Farm policy; Imperiled species; Land use; Land-use change; Land quality; Nutrient loss; Soil productivity; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33591
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Extent, Location, and Characteristics of Land Cropped Due to Insurance Subsidies AgEcon
Claassen, Roger; Lubowski, Ruben N.; Roberts, Michael J..
We examine changes in land use caused by the large increase in crop insurance premium subsidies under the 1994 Federal Crop Insurance and Reform Act (FCIRA). We use a conditional logit model to estimate changes in six major land uses from 1992 and 1997 as a function of the change in expected return to crop insurance. Our data on individual land parcels across the entire coterminous United States enable identification of the extent, location, and physical characteristics of the land brought into and retained in production as a result of the crop insurance policies. Results indicate the additional crop insurance premium subsidies increased cultivated cropland area on the order of 1.9 million acres (0.6%), consistent with the lower range of previous...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19546
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Government Payments and Farmland Concentration AgEcon
Roberts, Michael J.; Key, Nigel D..
Over the last twenty five years commodity crop farms have steadily declined in number and grown in average size, and production has shifted to larger operations. During the same period, the share of agricultural payments going to large farms has increased, in large part because payments are tied to actual or historical crop production. This study evaluates whether payments from federal farm programs may have contributed to the concentration of farmland. Using zip code-level data constructed from the micro files of the 1987-2002 Agriculture Censuses the study estimates the association between government payments per acre and subsequent growth in weighted median farmland area. A semi-parametric generalized additive model controls for location and initial...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21097
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GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN AGRICULTURE AgEcon
Key, Nigel D.; Roberts, Michael J..
Economic theory suggests several possible mechanisms through which direct government farm payments might influence the pattern of structural change in agriculture. This study estimates what effect farm payments have had on farm structure using farm-level panel data from the 1987, 1992, and 1997 Agricultural Censuses. Results suggest that the size of per-acre payments received in the past are associated with a small and weakly positive change in farm size between consecutive censuses, but that payments are significantly correlated with an increased likelihood of farm survival between consecutive periods.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22106
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Land Retirement Programs May Induce Enduring Land-Use Changes AgEcon
Lubowski, Ruben N.; Roberts, Michael J..
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124004
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Major Uses of Land in The United States, 2002 AgEcon
Lubowski, Ruben N.; Vesterby, Marlow; Bucholtz, Shawn; Baez, Alba; Roberts, Michael J..
This publication presents the results of the latest (2002) inventory of U.S. major land uses, drawing on data from the Census, public land management and conservation agencies, and other sources. The data are synthesized by State to calculate the use of several broad classes and subclasses of agricultural and nonagricultural land over time. The United States has a total land area of nearly 2.3 billion acres. Major uses in 2002 were forest-use land, 651 million acres (28.8 percent); grassland pasture and range land, 587 million acres (25.9 percent); cropland, 442 million acres (19.5 percent); special uses (primarily parks and wildlife areas), 297 million acres (13.1 percent); miscellaneous other uses, 228 million acres (10.1 percent); and urban land, 60...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Land use; Land-use change; Agricultural land; Nonagricultural land; Cropland; Forest-use land; Forestland; Pasture; Rangeland; Rural residential land; Special uses; Urban land; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7203
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Natural resource prices: will they ever turn up? AgEcon
Berck, Peter; Roberts, Michael J..
Hotelling's theory predicts that natural resource rents should increase over time. However, technical progress in resource extraction, environmental constraints, or great natural abundance could result in stagnant or declining product prices. Thus, there is no theoretical reason to believe that product prices will rise in the near future. The prediction of product prices by time-series methods is shown to depend critically upon whether the series are modeled as differenced or trend stationary. Dickey-Fuller and Lagrange Multiplier tests are used to show that the series are differenced stationary. Long- and short-sample series are tested. Trend-stationary modeling strongly predicts rising resource prices. The result from differenced-stationary modeling is...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Arima models; Natural resources; Simulation methods; Demand and Price Analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 1995 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43908
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NONPECUNIARY BENEFITS TO FARMING AND DECOUPLED PAYMENTS AgEcon
Key, Nigel D.; Roberts, Michael J..
The first part of this paper presents a simple labor supply and production model wherein farmers with diminishing marginal utility of income derive nonpecuniary benefits from farming. We use the model to show how lump-sum or “decoupled” government payments could have positive and substantial effects on the supply of agricultural products. The result is simple and intuitive: payments allow those who enjoy farming to continue farming while maintaining a reasonably high living standard. Without payments, a lower living standard leads to higher marginal utility of income, making higher off-farm wages more desirable than lower on-farm wages plus non-pecuniary benefits from farming. Farmers respond to a reduction in payments by shifting their labor off-farm...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Decoupled payments; Government payments; Nonpecuniary benefits; Labor supply; Trade; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9831
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Optimal Corn and Soybean Rotations AgEcon
Livingston, Michael J.; Roberts, Michael J.; Rust, John.
We examine crop choice as a dynamic optimization problem over an infinite time horizon, taking into account the effects over time that corn-soybean rotations have on soil quality, which manifest in yield and therefore profit impacts. We show how the efficient decision rule depends on model parameters and how it compares to those characteristic of static models of supply. The model is parameterized for a representative acre of Iowa cropland and used to predict actual crop choices in a panel of over 6500 Iowa plots during 1979–1997 surprisingly well.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6213
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POLICY DIRECTIONS TO MITIGATE WATER-SUPPLY RISK IN IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE: A FEDERAL PERSPECTIVE AgEcon
Aillery, Marcel P.; Gollehon, Noel R.; Schaible, Glenn D.; Roberts, Michael J.; Quinby, William.
Water reallocation to meet mandated flow requirements and trust responsibilities, established in Federal law and water authority, can result in large uncompensated losses to irrigated agriculture. This paper discusses the nature and potential cost of water-supply interruptions due to Federal actions, and provides a comparative assessment of alternative risk-mitigation measures.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19925
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POTENTIAL MARKET IMPACTS OF SOYBEAN RUST AgEcon
Livingston, Michael J.; Johansson, Robert C.; Daberkow, Stan G.; Roberts, Michael J.; Ash, Mark S.; Breneman, Vincent E..
Paper and PowerPoint Presentation
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32842
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