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EU ENLARGEMENT TO TURKEY: POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURAL MARKETS AND HOW THEY ARE SHAPED BY CHANGES IN MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS AgEcon
Fellmann, Thomas; van Leeuwen, Myrna; Salamon, Petra.
The potential accession of Turkey to the EU, and the related adoption of the CAP by Turkey, is expected to influence agricultural markets in both the EU and Turkey. The extent of the accession impacts depends on the one hand on the way the CAP will be implemented in Turkey, while on the other hand impacts are expected to be also shaped by macroeconomic conditions (like exchange rates, GDP growth and inflation levels). In this paper we provide a comprehensive model-based assessment of the potential impacts on agricultural markets of a Turkish accession to the EU. We first assess the impacts under the assumption of standard macroeconomic projections, then we analyse how a different TL/Euro exchange rate, a doubling of the Turkish inflation rate or a doubling...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Turkey; EU enlargement; Agricultural markets; Macro economy; AGMEMOD Zusammenfassung; Türkei; EU Erweiterung; Agrarmärkte; Makroökonomie; AGMEMOD; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114507
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