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A MODEL OF ENTRY-EXIT DECISIONS AND CAPACITY CHOICE UNDER DEMAND UNCERTAINTY AgEcon
Isik, Murat; Coble, Keith H.; Hudson, Darren; House, Lisa.
Many investment decisions of agribusiness firms such as when to invest in an emerging market or whether to expand the capacity of the firm involve irreversible investment and uncertainty about demand, cost or competition. This paper uses an option-value model to examine the factors affecting an agribusiness firm's decision whether and how much to invest in an emerging market under demand uncertainty. Demand uncertainty and irreversibility of investment make investment less desirable than the net present value (NPV) rule indicates. The inactive firm is more reluctant to enter the market when it takes into account demand uncertainty because it preserves the opportunity of making a better investment later. The active firm is more reluctant to abandon the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agribusiness decision-making; Demand uncertainty; Entry-exit decisions; Net present value; Real options; Remote sensing; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19797
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