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Flood Planning and Climate Forecasts at the Local Level AgEcon
Wernstedt, Kris; Hersh, Robert.
We examine the use of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts for flood planning in the Pacific Northwest. Using theories of resource mobilization as a conceptual foundation, the paper relies on: 1) case studies of three communities vulnerable to flooding that have had access to long-term forecasts of ENSO conditions; and 2) analysis of data collected from a survey of nearly 60 local emergency managers, planners, and public works staff. We find that understanding the regulatory machinery and other institutions involved in using climate forecasts is critical to more effective use of these forecasts. Forecast use could be promoted by: 1) an extension service to broker climate information; 2) the identification or creation of federal authorities to fund...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Flooding; ENSO; La Nina; Climate variability; Climate forecast; Natural hazards; Water policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q2.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10813
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Index Insurance, Probabilistic Climate Forecasts, and Production AgEcon
Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Osgood, Daniel E..
Index insurance and probabilistic seasonal forecasts are becoming available in developing countries to help farmers manage climate risks in production. Although these tools are intimately related, work has not been done to formalize the connections between them. We investigate the relationship between the risk management tools through a model of input choice under uncertainty, forecasts, and insurance. While it is possible for forecasts to undermine insurance, we find that when contracts are appropriately designed, there are important synergies between forecasts, insurance, and effective input use. Used together, these tools overcome barriers preventing the use of imperfect information in production decision making.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Basis risk; Climate forecast; Index insurance; Input decisions; Insurance; Risk management; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6107
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Index Insurance, Production Practices, and Probabilistic Climate Forecasts AgEcon
Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Osgood, Daniel E..
The failure of the development of commercially viable traditional crop insurance products and innovations in financial markers has fed a renewed interest in the search for alternatives to help producers in developing countries manage their risk exposure. Salient among these is the proposal of several index insurance schemes against weather events. Among the basic tenets are that the presence of index insurance allows producers to intensify their operations and reduce the risks of default and hence may induce creditors to offer loans at affordable rates. The two factors combined are touted as key to help producers in developing countries escape poverty traps. Improvements in seasonal climate forecasts create challenges for the design and effective...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Climate forecast; Index insurance; Input Decisions; Risk Management; Weather risks; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21463
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