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A large-scale view of oceanic variability from 2007 to 2015 in the global high resolution monitoring and forecasting system at Mercator Océan ArchiMer
Gasparin, Florent; Greiner, Eric; Lellouche, Jean-michel; Legalloudec, Olivier; Garric, Gilles; Drillet, Yann; Bourdalle-badie, Romain; Le Traon, Pierre-yves; Remy, Elisabeth; Drevillon, Marie.
The global high resolution monitoring and forecasting system PSY4 at Mercator Océan, initialized in October 2006, has achieved 11 years of global ocean state estimation. Based on the NEMO global 1/12° configuration, PSY4 includes data assimilation of satellite and multi-instrument in situ observations. In parallel to this monitoring system, a twin-free simulation (with no assimilation) has been performed for the period 2007-2015. In this study, monthly-averaged fields of both ocean state estimates are compared with observation products for the period 2007-2015, to examine the consistency of PSY4 fields with related observations for representing large-scale variability and to provide a baseline that is mainly focused on in situ comparisons for...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Global ocean monitoring and forecasting system; Climate variability; System evaluation/qualification; Global ocean observing system.
Ano: 2018 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00448/55956/57550.pdf
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Actuarial Implication of Structural Changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index Dynamics AgEcon
Chen, Shu-Ling.
The influence of climate variability on agricultural production and financial risks faced by an individual or an institution has been the center of the public discussion in the recent years. The changing weather patterns and environmental conditions could cause substantial unpredicted economic loss. Failure to capture the changing climate would underestimate the insurance contract’s expected indemnity and further create a major obstacle for insurance sectors. In this paper, we undertake a case study of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index insurance for coastal Peru proposed by Skees. We examined the behavior of El Niño dynamics and found El Niño indices are changing over time. A class of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Actuarial rating; Climate variability; El Niño; Fractional integration ARCH; FIGARCH; Index insurance; Structural change; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; G21; G22; Q10; Q14.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61384
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Anchovy population expansion in the North Sea ArchiMer
Petitgas, Pierre; Alheit, Juergen; Peck, Myron A.; Raab, Kristina; Irigoien, Xabier; Huret, Martin; Van Der Kooij, Jeroen; Pohlmann, Thomas; Wagner, Carola; Zarraonaindia, Iratxe; Dickey-collas, Mark.
The abundance and spatial occupation of European anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus have increased in the North Sea since the mid-1990s. We use a cross-disciplinary approach combining genetics, transport modelling, survey time series analyses and physical oceanographic modelling to investigate 3 hypotheses on the reasons for this change. Evidence from connectivity studies suggests that the population of North Sea anchovy is separate from that in the Bay of Biscay. The recruitment pulses observed in survey data fit a life cycle which includes spawning in early summer and larval development in late summer. This also supports the concept of population expansion originating from local remnant population(s). In terms of growth physiology, suitable thermal windows...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Climate variability; Small pelagic fish; Regime shift; Temperature; Anchovy; North Sea.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00060/17140/14638.pdf
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Assessing the potential for beneficial diversification in rain-fed agricultural enterprises AgEcon
Kandulu, John.
Climate change and climate variability induce uncertainty in yields, and thus threaten long term economic viability of rain-fed agricultural enterprises. Enterprise mix diversification is the most common, and is widely regarded as the most effective, strategy for mitigating multiple sources of farm business risk. We assess the potential for enterprise mix diversification in mitigating climate induced variability in long term net returns from rain-fed agriculture. We build on APSIM modelling and apply Monte Carlo simulation, probability theory, and finance techniques, to assess the potential for enterprise mix diversification to mitigate climate-induced variability in long term economic returns from rain-fed agriculture. We consider four alternative farm...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Climate variability; Yield uncertainty; Economic returns; Rain-fed agricultural enterprise; Risk; Monte Carlo; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100568
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Can Payments for Ecosystem Services Contribute to Adaptation to Climate Change? Insights from a Watershed in Kenya Ecology and Society
Mwangi, John K.; Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, Nairobi, Kenya; PhD Fellow, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Nairobi, Kenya ; joymwa86@yahoo.com; Namirembe, Sara; World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Nairobi, Kenya ; s.namirembe@cgiar.org.
Climate change presents new challenges for the management of social-ecological systems and the ecosystem services they provide. Although the instrument of payments for ecosystem services (PES) has emerged as a promising tool to safeguard or enhance the provision of ecosystem services (ES), little attention has been paid to the potential role of PES in climate change adaptation. As an external stressor climate change has an impact on the social-ecological system in which PES takes place, including the various actors taking part in the PES scheme. Following a short description of the conceptual link between PES and adaptation to climate change, we provide practical insights into the relationship between PES and adaptation to climate change by presenting...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Adaptation; Climate change; Climate variability; Payments for ecosystem services; Watershed.
Ano: 2014
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Climate Factors Play a Limited Role for Past Adaptation Strategies in West Africa Ecology and Society
Mertz, Ole; Department of Geography and Geology, University of Copenhagen; om@geo.ku.dk; Reenberg, Anette; Department of Geography and Geology, University of Copenhagen ; Ar@geo.ku.dk; Barbier, Bruno; International Cooperation Center for Agronomic Research and Development (CIRAD); bbarbier@cirad.fr; Dabi, Daniel; Department of Geography and Planning, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, University of Jos; davoo65@yahoo.com.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Adaptation; Climate variability; Livestock; Rainfed crops; West Africa.
Ano: 2010
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Climate Variability and Oceanographic Settings Associated with Interannual Variability in the Initiation of Dinophysis acuminata Blooms ArchiMer
Diaz, Patricio A.; Reguera, Beatriz; Ruiz-villarreal, Manuel; Pazos, Yolanda; Velo-suarez, Lourdes; Berger, Henrick; Sourisseau, Marc.
In 2012, there were exceptional blooms of D. acuminata in early spring in what appeared to be a mesoscale event affecting Western Iberia and the Bay of Biscay. The objective of this work was to identify common climatic patterns to explain the observed anomalies in two important aquaculture sites, the Galician R as Baixas (NW Spain) and Arcachon Bay (SW France). Here, we examine climate variability through physical-biological couplings, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies and time of initiation of the upwelling season and its intensity over several decades. In 2012, the mesoscale features common to the two sites were positive anomalies in SST and unusual wind patterns. These led to an atypical predominance of upwelling in winter in the Galician R as,...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Dinophysis acuminata; Climate variability; Upwelling patterns; River plumes; Exceptional algal blooms; Predictive models.
Ano: 2013 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00180/29157/27554.pdf
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CMIP5 Model Intercomparison of Freshwater Budget and Circulation in the North Atlantic ArchiMer
Deshayes, Julie; Curry, Ruth; Msadek, Rym.
The subpolar North Atlantic is a center of variability of ocean properties, wind stress curl, and air-sea exchanges. Observations and hindcast simulations suggest that from the early 1970s to the mid-1990s the subpolar gyre became fresher while the gyre and meridional circulations intensified. This is opposite to the relationship of freshening causing a weakened circulation, most often reproduced by climate models. The authors hypothesize that both these configurations exist but dominate on different time scales: a fresher subpolar gyre when the circulation is more intense, at interannual frequencies (configuration A), and a saltier subpolar gyre when the circulation is more intense, at longer periods (configuration B). Rather than going into the detail of...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Atmosphere-ocean interaction; Freshwater; Climate models; Model comparison; Climate variability; North Atlantic Oscillation.
Ano: 2014 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00199/31024/29429.pdf
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Contribution of climate variability to occurrences of anoxic crises 'malaigues' in the Thau lagoon (southern France) ArchiMer
Harzallah, Ali; Chapelle, Annie.
The Thau lagoon, located in southern France, suffers episodically in summer from anoxic crises known as 'malaigues'. Such crises mostly occur under warm conditions and low winds. In this paper we investigated effects of local weather conditions (air temperature, wind speed and precipitation over southern France), and two climate oscillations (the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Ni (n) over tildeo Oscillation) on malaigue occurrences based on 33-year data series and dates when malaigues appeared. The study shows that the probability of occurrence of malaigues increases with increasing temperature and decreasing winds in August both mostly associated to the high phase of an index of North Atlantic Oscillation. Malaigues are found to be frequently...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Lagoon; Thau; Malaigues; Anoxic crises; Climate variability; Lagune; Thau; Malaïgue; Eutrophisation; Variabilité climatique.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2002/publication-517.pdf
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Early indicators of the extent of climate change on Australian farms AgEcon
Crean, Jason; Parton, Kevin A.; Hayman, Peter; Mullen, John D..
More research is needed before we know the implications of climate change for Australian farms. Nevertheless given the information at hand, an assessment can be made of some early indicators. First, the severity of the recent drought was compared with earlier droughts. Second, the trend in rainfall was examined. Third, projections of climate change were reviewed to assess the likely course of climate variability, and hence provide a picture of the severity of future droughts. Although further research is warranted, the indications are that even if rainfall is no lower in future droughts, they may seem more severe because rising temperatures will tend to increase evaporation and reduce runoff.
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Drought; Climate change; Climate variability; Farming; Farm Management.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121496
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Flood Planning and Climate Forecasts at the Local Level AgEcon
Wernstedt, Kris; Hersh, Robert.
We examine the use of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts for flood planning in the Pacific Northwest. Using theories of resource mobilization as a conceptual foundation, the paper relies on: 1) case studies of three communities vulnerable to flooding that have had access to long-term forecasts of ENSO conditions; and 2) analysis of data collected from a survey of nearly 60 local emergency managers, planners, and public works staff. We find that understanding the regulatory machinery and other institutions involved in using climate forecasts is critical to more effective use of these forecasts. Forecast use could be promoted by: 1) an extension service to broker climate information; 2) the identification or creation of federal authorities to fund...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Flooding; ENSO; La Nina; Climate variability; Climate forecast; Natural hazards; Water policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q2.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10813
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Gauging the Vulnerability of Local Water Utilities to Extreme Weather Events AgEcon
Hersh, Robert; Wernstedt, Kris.
Water utilities that rely on surface water may be vulnerable to future droughts and floods, a vulnerability that may be magnified by climate perturbations as well as shorter-term and, in some cases, ongoing changes in the political and regulatory environment in which utilities operate. Unfortunately, day-to-day responsibilities currently occupy most utility operators, leaving little time to plan for inherently uncertain effects. The record of actual responses to past droughts and floods can be illuminating, however, particularly when placed in the context of plausible hydrologic and institutional disruptions. This paper draws on interviews of water utility operators in the northwestern U.S. to highlight opportunities and constraints that water utilities...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Water utilities; Extreme events; Environmental planning; Climate variability; Climate change; Adaptation; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10649
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Good year, bad year: changing strategies, changing networks? A two-year study on seed acquisition in northern Cameroon Ecology and Society
Analysis of seed exchange networks at a single point in time may reify sporadic relations into apparently fixed and long-lasting ones. In northern Cameroon, where environment is not only strongly seasonal but also shows unpredictable interannual variation, farmers’ social networks are flexible from year to year. When adjusting their strategies, Tupuri farmers do not systematically solicit the same partners to acquire the desired propagules. Seed acquisitions documented during a single cropping season may thus not accurately reflect the underlying larger social network that can be mobilized at the local level. To test this hypothesis, we documented, at the outset of two cropping seasons (2010 and 2011), the relationships through which seeds were...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Agrobiodiversity; Climate variability; Gender; Kinship relationships; Longitudinal network analysis; Seed exchange networks.
Ano: 2016
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Human-induced river runoff overlapping natural climate variability over the last 150 years: Palynological evidence (Bay of Brest, NW France) ArchiMer
Lambert, Clement; Penaud, Aurelie; Vidal, Muriel; Klouch, Khadidja; Gregoire, Gwendoline; Ehrhold, Axel; Eynaud, Frederique; Schmidt, Sabine; Ragueneau, Olivier; Siano, Raffaele.
For the first time a very high resolution palynological study (mean resolution of 1 to 5 years) was carried out over the last 150 years in a French estuarine environment (Bay of Brest; NW France), allowing direct comparison between the evolution of landscapes, surface water, and human practices on Bay of Brest watersheds, through continental (especially pollen grains) and marine (phytoplanktonic microalgae: cysts of dinoflagellates or dinocysts) microfossils. Thanks to the small size of the watersheds and the close proximity of the depositional environment to the mainland, the Bay of Brest represents an ideal case study for palynological investigations. Palynological data were then compared to published palaeo-genetic analyses conducted on the same core...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Pollen grains; Dinoflagellate cysts; Estuarine dynamics; River runoff; Climate variability.
Ano: 2018 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00410/52110/52813.pdf
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Impacts of considering climate variability on investment decisions in Ethiopia AgEcon
Block, Paul J.; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Diao, Xinshen.
Extreme interannual variability of precipitation within Ethiopia is not uncommon, inducing droughts or floods and often creating serious repercussions on agricultural and non-agricultural commodities. An agro-economic model, including mean climate variables, was developed to assess irrigation and road construction investment strategies in comparison to a baseline scenario over a 12-year time horizon. The motivation for this work is to evaluate whether the inclusion of climate variability in the model has a significant effect on prospective investment strategies and the resulting country-wide economy. The mean climate model is transformed into a variable climate model by dynamically adding yearly climate-yield factors, which influence agricultural...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Climate variability; Climate change; Water; Droughts; Flooding; Irrigation; Economic aspects; Road construction; Investments; Economic situation; Agro-economic model; Food and water security; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55419
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IMPACTS OF INCREASED CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON THE PROFITABILITY OF MIDWEST AGRICULTURE AgEcon
Dixon, Bruce L.; Segerson, Kathleen.
Approximate profit functions are estimated using time-series, cross-sectional, county level data for 12 midwest states. Measures of climate variability are included in the profit functions. Simulated impacts of climate changes on profits are derived. Results show that inclusion of measures of climate variation are important for measuring the impact of changes in mean temperature and precipitation levels. Failure to account for the impact of differences in variability leads to an overestimate of damages. If global warming increases diurnal variation, such increases would have negative impacts on the profitability of midwest agriculture.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Climate change; Climate variability; Midwest; Profit function; Farm Management.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15160
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Incidence of Agro-Climate Variability over Grass-Fed Cattle Markets. AgEcon
Lanfranco, Bruno A.; Castano, Jose Pedro.
The marginal contribution of each of the selected variables was quantified in terms of premiums and discounts and mapped as dynamic iso-price regions that illustrate geographic and seasonal permanent price patterns for feeder cattle, as well as changing market conditions derived from unexpected climate and weather variability. The graphic representation of how price patterns may change with climate variability allows for a better understanding of short term market disequilibrium derived from this type of variability. This may help cattle operators and producers improve farm management and making informed decisions.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Cattle prices; Climate variability; Agro-ecological conditions; Seasonal effects; Price formation; Differentiated products; Demand and Price Analysis; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61182
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Insights into decadal North Atlantic sea surface temperature and ocean heat content variability from an eddy-permitting coupled climate model ArchiMer
Moat, B. I.; Sinha, B.; Josey, S. A.; Robson, J.; Ortega, P.; Sévellec, Florian; Holliday, N. P.; Mccarthy, G. D.; New, A. L.; Hirschi, J. J.-m..
An ocean mixed layer heat budget methodology is used to investigate the physical processes determining subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat content (OHC) variability on decadal-multidecadal timescales using the state-of-the-art climate model HadGEM3-GC2. New elements include development of an equation for evolution of anomalous SST for interannual and longer timescales in a form analogous to that for OHC, parameterization of the diffusive heat flux at the base of the mixed layer and analysis of a composite AMOC event. Contributions to OHC and SST variability from two sources are evaluated i) net ocean-atmosphere heat flux and ii) all other processes, including advection, diffusion and entrainment for SST. Anomalies in...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Atmosphere-ocean interaction; Climate variability; Energy budget; Balance; Fluxes; Heat budgets; Fluxes; Surface temperature.
Ano: 2019 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00502/61395/65060.pdf
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Integrated Management of the Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia: Hydropower and Irrigation Modeling AgEcon
Block, Paul J..
Ethiopia is at a critical crossroads with a large and increasing population, a depressed national economy, insufficient agricultural production, and a low number of developed energy sources. The upper Blue Nile basin harbors considerable untapped potential for irrigation and hydropower development and expansion. Numerous hydrologic models have been developed to assess hydropower and agricultural irrigation potential within the basin, yet often fail to adequately address critical aspects, including the transient stages of large-scale reservoirs, relevant flow retention policies and associated downstream ramifications, and the implications of stochastic modeling of variable climate and climate change. A hydrologic model with dynamic climate capabilities is...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Ethiopia; Dams; Water resources development; Hydrologic model; Energy; Climate variability; Climate change; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42413
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Internal and forced variability along a section between Greenland and Portugal in the CLIPPER Atlantic model ArchiMer
Treguier, Anne-marie; Gourcuff, Claire; Lherminier, Pascale; Mercier, Herle; Barnier, Bernard; Madec, Gurvan; Molines, Jean-marc; Penduff, Thierry; Czeschel, Lars; Boning, Claus.
Numerical models are used to estimate the meridional overturning and transports along the paths of two hydrographic cruises, carried out in 1997 and 2002 from Greenland to Portugal. We have examined the influence of the different paths of the two cruises and found that it could explain 0.4 to 2 Sv of difference in overturning (the precise value is model-dependent). Models show a decrease in the overturning circulation between 1997 and 2002, with different amplitudes. The CLIPPER ATL6 model reproduces well the observed weakening of the overturning in density coordinates between the cruises; in the model, the change is due to the combination of interannual and high-frequency forcing and internal variability associated with eddies and meanders. Examination of...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Ocean model; Thermohaline circulation; North Atlantic; Climate variability; Oceanography.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2006/publication-2199.pdf
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