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Registros recuperados: 9
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A Numerical Analysis of Optimal Extraction and Trade of Oil under Climate Policy AgEcon
Massetti, Emanuele; Sferra, Fabio.
We introduce endogenous investments for increasing conventional and non-conventional oil extraction capacity in the integrated assessment model WITCH. The international price of oil emerges as the Nash equilibrium of a non-cooperative game. When carbon emissions are not constrained, oil is used throughout the century, with unconventional oil taking over conventional oil from mid-century onward. When carbon emissions are constrained, oil consumption drops dramatically and the oil price is lower than in the BaU. Unconventional oil is not extracted. Regional imbalances in the distribution of stabilisation costs are magnified and the oil-exporting countries bear, on average, costs three times larger than in previous estimates.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Integrated Assessment; Oil Production; Oil Revenues; Oil Trade; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; E17; F17; Q32; Q43; Q54.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96495
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Agricultural policy analysis in Finland with the AGMEMOD model: Lessons to be learnt? AgEcon
Niemi, Jyrki S.; Kettunen, Lauri.
The objective of this paper is to assess empirically the impacts of further reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the agri-food sector in Finland. To meet the objective, an econometric model for Finnish agriculture - built as a part of the AGMEMOD project - was utilised. The projection and policy simulations presented in the paper demonstrate that the model provides the basis for relatively straightforward baseline projection, and an initial framework for agricultural policy analysis. Yet, there remains substantial scope for further work on the model. In particular, the effects of big policy shocks are clearly not adequately captured by the model. The linear equations of supply together with low elasticities estimated from historical data...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Policy analysis; Econometric models; Finland; Commodity markets; Agricultural and Food Policy; C54; E17; Q18..
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99367
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Arroz Transgénico en Uruguay: un modelo de simulación para estimar los beneficios económicos potenciales. AgEcon
Hareau, Guy Gaston; Mills, Bradford F.; Norton, George W..
economic surplus, imperfect markets, adoption rate, GMO, monopoly power.
Tipo: Book Palavras-chave: En pequeños países en desarrollo como Uruguay; Los beneficios económicos potenciales que se obtendrían por la adopción de nuevas tecnologías agrícolas basadas en biotecnología están limitados por una base productiva reducida. En este trabajo se evalúa ex - ante el impacto económico de una variedad de arroz transgénico resistente a herbicidas donde el poder de mercado de la multinacional propietaria de la variedad afecta las tasas de adopción a través del margen monopólico en el precio de la semilla. Se emplean métodos de simulación estocástica para estudiar la variación de los resultados a cambios en los parámetros tecnológicos y en las tasas de adopción. La media del excedente económico de los productores es de US$1; 82 millones; Mientras que la ganancia monopólica es de US$0; 55 millones. Estos beneficios económicos relativamente escasos sugieren que; Sin estrategias de política pública que incrementen los beneficios potenciales y reduzcan los costos de investigación; Las multinacionales no invertirían recursos significativos en el desarrollo de una variedad transgénica adaptada a las condiciones locales. Las alianzas con instituciones nacionales y el acceso a mercados regionales ampliados también contribuyen a incrementar los incentivos privados en I&D.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; C14; E17; Q16; Q18; Q55.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121683
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Demographic Change and Consumption -- A Long-term Simulation Analysis AgEcon
Stiller, Silvia.
This study investigates the influence of the demographic ageing process in Germany on the long-term economic growth path. For this purpose a macroeconomic simulation model which combines demographic forecasts with a modified Ramsey growth model is applied. Special focus is put on the consumption effects of population ageing and the potential to counter those by rising fertility or permanent immigration. The simulation results illustrate that in the medium and in the long terms per capita consumption is among all demographic scenarios lower than without demographic changes. Permanent immigration can retard the consumption decrease. Rising fertility even reinforces the decline of consumption in the examined period of time. Das Diskussionpapier beschäftigt...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Population Ageing; Consumption; Growth; Labor and Human Capital; E17; E21; J 11.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26252
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Entwicklung eines Modells zur Projektion des Wirtschaftswachstums und der langfristigen Nachfrage nach Produktionsfaktoren in Deutschland: unter besonderer Berucksichtigung des informations- technologischen Innovationsprozesses AgEcon
Danckwerts, Rudolf-Ferdinand; Grossmann, Wolf Dieter; Henne, Wolfgang.
Es wird das Konzept für ein makroökonomisches Strukturmodell mit integriertem Innovationsprozesskern zur Analyse und Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Deutschland vorgestellt. Das geplante Modell soll explizit die Auswirkungen des immer bedeutsamer werdenden IuK-technologischen Innovationsprozesses auf das Wirtschaftswachstum erfassen. Das Modell besteht aus einem makroökonometrischen Teil zur Darstellung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung und einem systemdynamischen Teil zur Erfassung des Innovationsprozesses auf mikroökonomischer Ebene. Als Modellteile sind zwei bereits existierende Modelle, das HWWA-Modell und das ISIS-Modell, nach ihrer Erweiterung und Anpassung vorgesehen. Die erforderlichen Modifizierungen, das Verfahren zur Kopplung der...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Zeitreihenmodelle; Dynamische Analyse; Prognose und Simulation; Neue Ökonomie; Technischer Wandel; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C32; C53; C61; E17; O33.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26166
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Extreme Measures of Agricultural Financial Risk AgEcon
Cotter, John; Dowd, Kevin; Morgan, C. Wyn.
This paper is from the Centre for Financial Markets (CFM) Working Paper series at University College Dublin.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agricultural financial risk; Spectral risk measures; Expected Shortfall; Value at Risk; Extreme Value Theory.; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; E17; G19; N52.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/101971
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Reform in the EU Sugar Regime: Impact on the Global Sugar Markets AgEcon
Huan-Niemi, Ellen; Kerkela, Leena.
The ongoing trade negotiations, unilateral trade concessions and obligations under the WTO are pushing the EU sugar regime to undertake reforms. These reforms will alter the positions of developing countries in the global sugar markets. A complete unilateral liberalisation of the EU sugar sector is simulated to depict the winners and losers in the global sugar markets if no preferences are governing the imports of sugar into the EU. The supply responses, which strongly affect the outcomes, are dependent on both the nature of substitution for sugar as well as on the efficiency of sugar production in different countries. The multiregion general equilibrium framework (GTAP) is used for this analysis. The results show that the total liberalisation of sugar...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: EU sugar regime; Reform; Developing countries; Unilateral liberalisation; GTAP; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; E17; F17; Q18.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24733
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Think Again: Higher Elasticity of Substitution Increases Economic Resilience AgEcon
Dumas, Patrice; Hallegatte, Stephane.
This paper shows that, counter-intuitively, a higher elasticity of substitution in model production function can lead to reduced economic resilience and larger vulnerability to shocks in production factor prices. This result is due to the fact that assuming a higher elasticity of substitution requires a recalibration of the production function parameters to keep the model initial state unchanged. This result has consequences for economic analysis, e.g., on the economic vulnerability to climate change.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Substitution; Calibration; Constant Elasticity of Substitution; Shock; Risk and Uncertainty; D24; E17; E23.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54283
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Welfare Effects of Demographic Changes in a Ramsey Growth Model AgEcon
Stiller, Silvia.
Population ageing and decline are inescapable facts for Germany which are expected to have - especially due to the labour force decrease - negative impacts on the economy. In this context it is often referred to the possibility of countering potentially negative economic effects of population ageing by a fertility increase or immigration of people at the working age. Of course, changing fertility and immigration are both suited to reduce population ageing. But they influence the population structure, labour supply and thus the economic conditions in substantially different way. This discussion paper focuses on one aspect which is related to this issue. It is examined by simulations how different demographic scenarios affect consumption development and thus...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Demographic Forecast; Population Ageing; Consumption; Welfare; Labor and Human Capital; J11; E17; E21.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26285
Registros recuperados: 9
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