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Registros recuperados: 39
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A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Inward FDI on Ghana: The Role of Complementary Policies AgEcon
Arbenser, Lawrence.
The need for external capital (FDI) inflow to finance the current account deficit of developing countries cannot be over-emphasized. Foreign direct investment takes predominance over other types of capital inflow into developing countries. How would an increase in FDI and a reduction in import tariff levels in isolation affect household welfare and other macroeconomic indicators? How would the concurrent application of the two enhance the expected impact? This paper explores the above questions by using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Ghana, implemented in the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) to carry out specific counterfactual simulations. This paper concludes that the primary benefit of an increase in FDI inflow for a...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: FDI; Import tariff; CGE; Ghana; GAMS; Household welfare trade deficit; Exchange rate; Import; Export; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18829
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A Re-examination of Factors Affecting United States Softwood Lumber Imports from Canada AgEcon
Baek, Jungho.
This paper examines the effects of the lumber price, the housing starts, and the bilateral exchange rate on U.S. softwood lumber imports from Canada in a cointegration framework. To that end, the Phillips-Hansen fully-modified cointegration (FM-OLS) procedure is applied to monthly data for the period from January 1994 through June 2009. Results show that there exists the long-run equilibrium relationship between the U.S. lumber imports from Canada and the selected macroeconomic and market variables. We also find that the U.S. lumber price and housing starts are more important than the bilateral exchange rate in influencing U.S.-Canada softwood lumber trade.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Exchange rate; Housing starts; Lumber imports; Lumber price; Phillips-Hansen fully-modified cointegration technique; Softwood lumber trade; International Relations/Trade; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60930
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Aid allocation effects on growth and poverty: A CGE framework AgEcon
Twimukye, Evarist P.; Nabiddo, Winnie; Matovu, John Mary.
It has been argues that increased aid causes Dutch disease as a result of appreciation of the exchange rate which reduces the competitiveness of the country's exports. In this paper, we argue that if the aid is used productively, there are both short and long term gains. Applying a recursive dynamic general equilibrium model on Uganda, we find that while the currency appreciates and some exports decline, the overall impact on growth outweighs the losses in competitiveness. In addition, it aid is used productively, poverty would be substantially reduced as long as the aid increase is sustained.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Aid; Exchange rate; Dutch disease; Twimukye; Nabiddo; Matovu; Exports; Foreign aid; Poverty reduction; Economic policy research center; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Financial Economics; International Development; Labor and Human Capital; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Public Economics.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54937
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ANÁLISE DA VOLATILIDADE DO DÓLAR E DO EURO: UM DIRECIONAMENTO PARA EMPRESAS DO AGRONEGÓCIO AgEcon
Jubert, Roberto Wagner; Paixao, Marcia Cristina; Maia, Sinezio Fernandes.
A análise do padrão da volatilidade dos retornos gerados por derivativos de moedas estrangeiras é tópico particularmente importante para empresas que realizam volume significativo de negócios com o exterior, a exemplo dos grandes produtores brasileiros de produtos agropecuários, e que atuam no mercado de derivativos buscando eliminar riscos financeiros ligados às variações das taxas de câmbio. Neste artigo, realizou-se uma análise do padrão da volatilidade dos retornos do dólar americano e do euro, utilizando-se modelos da classe ARCH, considerando como premissa básica que a variância condicional fornecida por estes modelos pode ser utilizada como proxy para a volatilidade dos retornos dos derivativos de moedas estrangeiras. Os resultados sugerem que...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Modelos ARCH; Taxa de câmbio; Volatilidade; ARCH models; Exchange rate; Volatility; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114123
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Análisis del comportamiento de la demanda de importaciones de limón persa (Citrus latifolia tanaka) y mexicano (Citrus aurantifolia swingle) en los Estados Unidos Colegio de Postgraduados
Sánchez Torres, Yolanda.
La agricultura mexicana en la década de los setentas inicia un proceso de expansión en la producción de frutas y hortalizas; y con ello la relevancia de frutas de clima tropical en el mercado mundial. Para 2008 México ocupaba el segundo lugar como productor mundial (14.94%) de limones y el primero como exportador (20.5%), teniendo dos variedades altamente competitivas: el limón mexicano, orientado al mercado nacional (96.2%) y el limón persa vinculado al mercado internacional (50.3%). El objetivo de la investigación fue identificar y valorar la relación funcional que tienen la población hispana, el precio unitario de importación, el ingreso y el tipo de cambio real con la demanda de importaciones para ambas variedades en Estados Unidos, en el periodo...
Palavras-chave: Demanda de importaciones; Limón mexicano; Limón persa; Población hispanica; Precio unitario de importación; Tipo de cambio; Ingreso real; Import demand; Mexican lime; Persian lime; Hispanic population; Unit price of import; Exchange rate; Real income; Doctorado; Economía.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/357
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Analyzing Factors Affecting U.S. Food Price Inflation. AgEcon
Baek, Jungho; Koo, Won W..
Since the summer of 2007, U.S. food price has increased dramatically. Given public anxiety over fast-rising food prices in recent years, this paper attempts to analyze the effects of market factors ─ prices of energy and agricultural commodities and exchange rate ─ on U.S. food prices using a co-integration analysis. Results show that the agricultural commodity price and exchange rate play key roles in determining the short- and long-run movement of U.S. food prices. It is also found that in recent years, the energy price has been a significant factor affecting U.S. food prices in the long-run, but has little effect in the short-run. This implies the strong long-run linkage between energy and agricultural markets has emerged through production of...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Agricultural commodity price; Energy price; Exchange rate; Food price inflation; Time-series analysis; Agribusiness.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54248
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Determinants of the U.S. Trade Balance in Consumer-Oriented Agricultural Products AgEcon
Zhuang, Renan; Koo, Won W.; Mattson, Jeremy W..
This study investigates the factors behind the growing U.S. trade deficit in consumer-oriented agricultural and food products by using reliable panel data and an empirical trade model derived from international trade theory. The results indicate that per capita income in the United States appears to be the most important determinant for the growing U.S. trade deficit. Increases in per capita income and trade liberalization in foreign countries improve the U.S. trade balance. U.S. foreign direct investment abroad in food processing, a strong U.S. dollar, and NAFTA are found to have negative effects on the U.S. trade balance.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Consumer-oriented products; Trade balance; Trade deficit; Exchange rate; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9079
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Does the U.S. Midwest Have a Cost Advantage Over China in Producing Corn, Soybeans, and Hogs? AgEcon
Fang, Cheng; Fabiosa, Jacinto F..
China's accession to the World Trade Organization, a significant event for U.S. agricultural trade, has been viewed as benefitting U.S. farmers, especially midwestern farmers. This research compares the productivity and cost of production (COP) of China and the United States in producing corn, soybeans, and hogs. The results show that the U.S. Midwest (defined in this study as the Heartland region as classified by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service) has a substantial advantage in land and labor productivities in producing corn and soybeans, especially compared to China's South and West producing regions. However, China's Northeast region, a major corn- and soybean-producing area, has a very competitive COP over the U.S. Midwest....
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agricultural trade; Competitiveness; Corn; Cost of production; Exchange rate; Hogs; Land policy; Productivity; Soybeans; U.S. Midwest versus China; Agricultural Finance; Production Economics; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18688
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Dynamic Interrelationships between the U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance and the Macroeconomy AgEcon
Baek, Jungho; Koo, Won W..
The effects of the exchange rate and the income and money supply of the United States and its major trading partners on the U.S. agricultural trade balance are examined using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Results suggest that the exchange rate is the key determinant of the short-and long-run behavior of the trade balance. It is also found that the income and money supply in both the United States and the trading partners have significant impacts on U.S. agricultural trade in both the short and long run.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agricultural trade balance; Autoregressive distributed lag model; Exchange rate; Income; Macroeconomy; Money supply; International Relations/Trade; C32; F14; Q17.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6301
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DYNAMICS IN THE MACROECONOMY AND THE U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE BALANCE AgEcon
Baek, Jungho; Koo, Won W..
The effects of the exchange rate and the income and money supply of the United States and its major trading partners on the U.S. agricultural trade balance are examined using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Results suggest that the exchange rate is the key determinant of the short- and long-run behavior of the trade balance. It is also found that the income and money supply in both the United States and the trading partners have significant impacts on the U.S. agricultural trade in both the short- and long-run.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agricultural trade balance; Autoregressive distributed lag model; Exchange rate; Income; Macroeconomy; Money supply; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23619
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EFEITOS DE CURTO E LONGO PRAZOS DE CHOQUES NA TAXA DE CÂMBIO REAL SOBRE O SALDO DA BALANÇA COMERCIAL AGROPECUÁRIA BRASILEIRA AgEcon
Scalco, Paulo Roberto; Carvalho, Henrique Duarte; Campos, Antonio Carvalho.
O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar os efeitos de longo e curto prazos de choques na taxa de câmbio real sobre o saldo da balança comercial agropecuária brasileira. O procedimento metodológico empregado foi a análise multivariada descrita em Johansen (1988 e 1991) apud Hamilton (1994). Os resultados indicam que existe uma relação de longo prazo entre a depreciação na taxa de câmbio real e o saldo da balança comercial. Verifica-se que, no longo prazo, um aumento de 1,0 % da taxa de câmbio leva a uma expansão de 2,10 % no saldo da balança comercial. Esse resultado está consistente com a condição de Marshall-Lerner que afirma: no longo prazo, o efeito volume deve superar o efeito preço, promovendo, assim, um aumento no saldo da balança comercial. Entretanto,...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Condição de Marshall-Lerner; Curva J; Taxa de câmbio; Balança comercial; Setor agropecuário; Marshall-Lerner condition; J-Curve; Exchange rate; Trade balance; Agricultural sector; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/109536
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EMU AND FOREST PRODUCTS PRICING AND EUROPE AgEcon
Hanninen, Riitta; Laaksonen-Craig, Susanna; Toppinen, Anne.
In previous literature, the degree of exchange rate pass-through to importing country’s currency has often been found to be incomplete, which supports the idea of imperfect competition in the forest products markets. In this study, exchange rate pass-through is examined by employing a mark-up model for the UK and German pulp and newsprint markets for 1986–97. Two specifications are compared, one where exchange rates in importing countries are employed and the other that attributes for the fact that US dollar is largely used in pricing for forest industry products in Europe. In contrast to previous studies, our estimates indicate very low degrees of pass-through, which is consistent with competitive European markets for pulp and paper. Consequently,...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Exchange rate; Pass-through; Pricing currency; Pulp; Newsprint; Stumpage prices; Cointegration; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36502
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Estimating the Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export Volumes AgEcon
Wang, Kai-Li; Barrett, Christopher B..
This paper takes a new empirical look at the long-standing question of the effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows by studying the case of Taiwan's exports to the United States from 1989-1998. In particular, we employ sectoral-level, monthly data and an innovative multivariate GARCH-M estimator with corrections for leptokurtic errors. This estimator allows for the possibility that traders' forward-looking contracting behavior might condition the way in which exchange rate movement and associated risk affect trade volumes. Change in importing country industrial production and change in the expected exchange rate are found to jointly drive the trade volumes. More strikingly, monthly exchange rate volatility affects agricultural trade...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agricultural trade; Exchange rate; Expectations; GARCH; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8643
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EXCHANGE RATE EFFECTS ON AGRICULTURAL TRADE AgEcon
Orden, David.
With sustained appreciation of the U.S. dollar over the past 4 years, the exchange rate has again taken on importance for agriculture. This overview paper revisits the analysis of exchange rate impacts, reviewing the relevant conceptual arguments, summarizing the evidence economists and agricultural economists have marshaled from the 1970s and the 1980s and from several more recent papers, presenting some illustrative recent empirical analysis of exchange rate effects, and briefly examining the detrimental consequences that sustained appreciation of the dollar is having on U.S. farm policy.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Agricultural trade; Exchange rate; International Relations/Trade; F31; Q17; Q18.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15466
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Exchange Rate Sensitivity of Fresh Tomatoes Imports from Mexico to the United States AgEcon
Jaramillo-Villanueva, Jose Luis; Sarker, Rakhal.
The agri-food trade between Mexico and the United States grew substantially after the implementation of NAFTA in 1994. While some analysts argue that NAFTA has contributed the most to the dramatic expansion of this trade, others have emphasized the role played by the exchange rate in this process. An attempt is made in this paper to address this issue by quantifying the effects of NAFTA, the Mexico-US exchange rate changes and its volatility on the fresh tomato imports into the United States from Mexico using the maximum likelihood cointegration analysis. The results from the cointegration analysis show that while changes in exchange rate have a positive effect on trade flows, volatility of the exchange rate has a significant negative effect on trade...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Exchange rate; Exchange rate volatility; Fresh tomatoes trade; NAFTA; Cointegration analysis and error-correction modelling; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51459
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Exchange Rate Sensitivity of Mexican Maize Imports from the United States AgEcon
Sarker, Rakhal; Jaramillo-Villanueva, Jose Luis.
Since the implementation of NAFTA in 1994 agri-food trade between Mexico and the United States grew substantially. While some analysts argue that NAFTA has contributed the most, others have emphasized the role played by exchange rate in this process. An attempt is made in this paper to address this issue by determining the extent to which NAFTA, expansion of the livestock sector, exchange rate and exchange rate variability have contributed to the expansion of Mexican maize imports from the United States from January 1989 to December 2004.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Maize trade; Exchange rate; Volatility of exchange rate; Livestock inventory; Cointegration analysis; Error-correction model; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9864
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Exchange Rates Impacts on Agricultural Inputs Prices using VAR AgEcon
Yeboah, Osei-Agyeman; Shaik, Saleem; Allen, Albert J..
The effects of the U.S. dollar exchange rate versus the Mexican peso are evaluated for four traded nonfarm-produced inputs (fertilizer, chemicals, farm machinery, and feed) in the U.S. Unit root tests suggest that the exchange rate and the four input price ratios support the presence of unit roots with a trend model but the presence unit roots can be rejected in the first difference model. This result is consistent with a fixed price/flex price conceptual framework, with industrial prices more likely to be unresponsive to the exchange rate than farm commodity prices.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Exchange rate; Pass-through; Law of one price; SUR; VAR; Agribusiness; Financial Economics; International Relations/Trade; F14; F31; F36; F42; C23.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53096
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Growing U.S. Trade Deficit in Consumer-Oriented Agricultural Products AgEcon
Zhuang, Renan; Koo, Won W.; Mattson, Jeremy W..
We investigate the factors behind the growing U.S. trade deficit in consumer-oriented agricultural products by using reliable panel data and an empirical trade model derived from international trade theory. The results indicate that per capita income in the United States appears to be the most important determinant for the growing U.S. trade deficit of consumer-oriented agricultural products. An increase in per capita income and trade liberalization in foreign countries would improve the U.S. trade balance. U.S. foreign direct investment abroad in food manufactures and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) are found to have negative effects on the U.S. trade balance.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Consumer-oriented products; Exchange rate; Trade balance; Trade deficit; Agribusiness; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; International Relations/Trade; F14; Q17.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/47270
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Histerese no comércio internacional brasileiro: uma análise por modelos ARFIMA AgEcon
Maia, Sinezio Fernandes; Jubert, Roberto Wagner; Paixao, Marcia Cristina.
Após a abertura comercial em 1998, grandes mudanças ocorreram no comércio exterior nacional devido sucessivos choques cambiais aos quais a economia foi exposta. A literatura de referência sugere que grandes choques na taxa de câmbio induzem mudanças persistentes na relação entre a taxa de câmbio e o comércio. Este fenômeno é conhecido por histerese. Desta forma, o objetivo deste trabalho é evidenciar a existência de histerese no comércio internacional brasileiro, com interesse particular no setor agrícola. Os resultados indicaram evidências de histerese simples na taxa de câmbio e nas importações brasileiras, e de histerese fraca no setor agrícola e nas exportações. Conclui-se que a mudança de regime cambial em 1999 e a unificação cambial em 2005...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agrícola; ARFIMA; Histerese; Quebra estrutural; Taxa de Câmbio; Agricultural. ARFIMA; Exchange rate; Hysteresis; Structural breaks; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/102896
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How Sensitive is U.S. Agricultural Trade to the Bilateral Exchange Rate?: Evidence from Bulk and Consumer-oriented Products AgEcon
Baek, Jungho; Koo, Won W..
This paper examines the dynamic effects of changes in the bilateral exchange rate on changes in the bilateral trade of bulk and consumer-oriented agricultural products between the U.S. and its 10 major trading partners. We find that, for consumer-oriented products, U.S. exports are highly sensitive to the bilateral exchange rate and foreign income in both the short- and long-run, while U.S. imports are mostly responsive to the U.S. domestic income. For bulk products, on the other hand, U.S. exports and imports are driven largely by the income of the U.S. and its trading partners and less by exchange rate changes in both the short- and long-run.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural exports; Agricultural imports; Autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration; Bulk; Consumer-oriented; Exchange rate; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60929
Registros recuperados: 39
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