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Registros recuperados: 7
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An Open-Access Fishery with Rational Expectations AgEcon
Berck, Peter; Perloff, Jeffrey M..
How potential entrants to an open-access fishery form their expectations determines the fishery’s adjustment path to a steady state but not the steady state values themselves. It is well known that, in the standard model with myopic expectations (those based on current values), boats enter the fishery only when the fish stock is greater than its steady state stock. We show that, with rational expectations (perfect foresight), however, boats may enter when the fish stock is much lower than its steady state value if the boat fleet is sufficiently small. This paper contrasts myopic and rational expectations within a general dynamic model of an open-access fishery.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Economic aspects; Expectations; Fisheries.
Ano: 1982 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42856
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Building aggregate timber supply models from individual harvest choice AgEcon
Polyakov, Maksym; Wear, David N.; Huggett, Robert.
Timber supply has traditionally been modelled using aggregate data. In this paper, we build aggregate supply models for four roundwood products for the US state of North Carolina from a stand-level harvest choice model applied to detailed forest inventory. The simulated elasticities of pulpwood supply are much lower than reported by previous studies. Cross price elasticities indicate a dominant influence of sawtimber markets on pulpwood supply. This approach allows predicting the supply consequences of exogenous factors and supports regular updating of supply models.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Timber supply; Harvest choice; Conditional logit; Elasticity; Expectations; Simulation..
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48168
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DYNAMIC CONTROL AS MEASURE TO STABILIZE AGRICULTUTAL MARKETS: On Theory and Options to Correct Cyclical Movements AgEcon
Nuppenau, Ernst-August.
This paper deals with a control theory approach to stabilize cyclical price movements. Firstly, we pursue a welfare economist’s approach, delineating a public objective function derived from consumer and producer surplus as well as trade budget at world market price. Trade is a con¬trol variable and the market price is a state variable. Moreover we assume adaptive formation of price expectation at the producer side. Secondly the control problem is outline and solved by discrete control theory. Thirdly, the paper makes suggestions how to translate the optimal control framework and results into a trade policy of the envisaged country. Finally, limitations are discussed and an outlook for broadening the concept for international concerns is offered.
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Dynamic control; Expectations; Cyclical prices; Stabilization policy; Risk and Uncertainty; C54; C61; F61..
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122467
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Estimating the Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export Volumes AgEcon
Wang, Kai-Li; Barrett, Christopher B..
This paper takes a new empirical look at the long-standing question of the effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows by studying the case of Taiwan's exports to the United States from 1989-1998. In particular, we employ sectoral-level, monthly data and an innovative multivariate GARCH-M estimator with corrections for leptokurtic errors. This estimator allows for the possibility that traders' forward-looking contracting behavior might condition the way in which exchange rate movement and associated risk affect trade volumes. Change in importing country industrial production and change in the expected exchange rate are found to jointly drive the trade volumes. More strikingly, monthly exchange rate volatility affects agricultural trade...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agricultural trade; Exchange rate; Expectations; GARCH; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8643
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Measuring the Effects of Alternative Support Policy Instruments on Beef Supply AgEcon
Benjamin, Catherine; Piot-Lepetit, Isabelle.
The European Union beef market regulation is largely influenced by the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). With the 1992 CAP reform, there was a partial shift by the EU from product price support to a more direct form of income support by way of direct payments. For beef there was a move to direct payments on intermediate products which was essentially a direct payment for the possession of various categories of animals and these were linked to a land resource base. The Agenda 2000 reform consists in a further price decrease associated with an increase in direct payments. The objective of this paper is to assess how the behaviour of beef producers is sensitive to changes in production prices and to changes in premiums. The analysis relies on an analytical...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Beef supply; Dynamic modelling; Expectations; Direct payments; Common Agricultural Policy; Agricultural and Food Policy; C61; Q12; Q18.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24781
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Rational Expectations and Biological Feasibility in the Projection of Supply and Demand for Douglas Fir Stumpage AgEcon
Berck, Peter.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Biology; Expectations; Forest products; Supply and demand.
Ano: 1977 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37691
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WESTERN ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS SURVEY: MARCH, 2010 AgEcon
Brisbois, Jason; Emter, Nicholas A.; Frost, Jean; Gibbins, Dan; Marcil, Jacques.
The online Western Economic Expectations survey solicits views on the future economic performance of the western provinces and the country from over 2,000 economists and financial analysts who are closest to the working details of the Western Canadian economy. The survey covers people who use economics in their work, in universities and colleges, industry associations, economic development agencies, the private sector and the public service across Western Canada. The survey is conducted through a partnership between Alberta’s two premier economic and policy research centres, the Canada West Foundation in Calgary and the Western Centre for Economic Research at the University of Alberta’s School of Business in Edmonton, It is the only survey that solicits...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Western Economy; Economic expectations; Economists; Survey; Expectations; International Development; International Relations/Trade; Political Economy; Public Economics.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60405
Registros recuperados: 7
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