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Registros recuperados: 9
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Did the Economic Conditions for Bt-maize in the EU Improve from 1995 to 2004? A MISTICs Perspective. AgEcon
Scatasta, Sara; Wesseler, Justus; Demont, Matty.
The debate about the "quasi" moratorium on the release of GMOs in the European Union is on going. One of the major arguments that were put forward to delay the release of new traits was the one for more information. In this contribution we compare the situation for Bt-maize from the 1995 and 2004 perspective. The 2004 perspective differentiate between two scenarios: one without the CAP reform and one including the CAP reform. For the comparison we use an ex-ante assessment model based on real option theory that explicitly considers the irreversible costs and benefits of the technology. As empirical information about possible irreversible costs is scarce we identify the maximum incremental social tolerable irreversible costs, MISTICs, for Bt-maize, a...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Bt-maize; Irreversibility; Real options; Uncertainty; Crop Production/Industries; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25245
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Employing Real Options Methodology for Decision Making in Greenhouse Technology AgEcon
Tzouramani, Irene; Mattas, Konstadinos.
Latest developments in investment analysis offer a number of valuable insights into how to evaluate investment opportunities encountering the weaknesses of net present value criterion. More specific, irreversibility, uncertainty and the choice of timing are conditions that net present value does not include but they alter the investment decision in critical way. Employing contingent claims analysis in tangible investments several assumptions made by discount cash flow method are concerned and better assessment results can be derived. In this work, an attempt is made to apply real options methodology in agricultural investments. Many agricultural investors face a growing uncertainty environment with high sunk investments and net present value criterion has...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Real options; Irreversibility; Option value; Agriculture; Investment; Policy; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24835
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Environmental triage decisions during a drought AgEcon
Gorddard, Russell J.; Connor, Jeffery D.; Ranjan, Ram.
The Murray Darling Basin Current is currently in drought. There are low water levels in most dams, and increased uncertainty about future rainfall. As a result management of the ecosystems in the basin that depend on river flows involves some hard decisions about what assets to save and what assets to let go. This paper models this triage problem using a stochastic and dynamic programming approach. This model is used to identify how optimal management is affected by hysteretic and irreversible effects of drought on ecosystem assets and uncertainty about future climate.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Triage; Irreversibility; Climate change; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/47631
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INCORPORATING RISK PREFERENCES INTO REAL OPTIONS MODELS AgEcon
Isik, Murat.
This paper develops a framework to link the expected utility analysis to real options models in order to capture the joint effects of risk aversion and irreversibility associated with real investments. It aims at modifying the theory of investment under uncertainty by incorporating decision makers' risk preferences and allows explicitly analyzing the impacts of risk aversion, uncertainty and irreversibility on decisions such as investment and resource allocations. It addresses the shortcomings of the commonly used expected utility and investment under uncertainty models be generalizing the theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty by allowing for risk-averse investors. We found that uncertainty, irreversibility and risk aversion are important...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Expected utility; Investment under uncertainty; Irreversibility; Real options; Risk aversion; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; G1.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20027
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Investment Reluctance: Irreversibility or Imperfect Capital Markets? Evidence from German Farm Panel Data AgEcon
Huettel, Silke; Musshoff, Oliver; Odening, Martin.
Investment behavior at the firm level is characterized by lumpy adjustments and frequent periods of inactivity. Low investment rates are particularly puzzling in transition economies where an urgent need of modernization exists. The literature offers two explanations for. Firstly, neo-institutional finance theory focuses on the impacts of imperfect capital markets on investment decisions showing that the limited availability of financial funds may confine firms’ investments. Secondly, real options theory asserts that the interaction of irreversibility, uncertainty and flexibility may also result in investment reluctance. In this paper we suggest a generalized model that combines imperfect capital markets and real options effects. We also offer an...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Investment decision; Irreversibility; Uncertainty; Q-model; Capital market imperfections; Generalized tobit model; Transition; Financial Economics; D81; D92; O12.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9826
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MODELING ECOLOGICAL CONSTRAINTS ON TROPICAL FOREST MANAGEMENT: COMMENT AgEcon
Barrett, Christopher B.; Batabyal, Amitrajeet A..
We comment on four aspects of Albers' [1] model of ecological constraints on tropical forest management. Albers structures her model in a highly asymmetric manner, with strong, uniform biases against development and in favor of preservation. Despite Albers' repeated claims that her model is "complete" and that it has significant implications for tropical forest management, we contend instead that the results of a truly general, empirically defensible model are inherently ambiguous. Spatial and intertemporal dimensions clearly matter, but they do not point as neatly in favor of preservation as Albers would have us believe. Note: Forthcoming in Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Forest; Interdependence; Irreversibility; Management; Uncertainty; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; D81; Q15; Q23.
Ano: 1996 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28371
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Optimal Farm Size under an Uncertain Land Market: the Case of Kyrgyz Republic AgEcon
Scandizzo, Pasquale Lucio; Savastano, Sara.
The paper illustrates a theoretical model of real option value applied to the problem of land development. Making use of the 1998-2001 Kyrgyz Household Budget Survey, we show that when the hypothesis of decreasing return to scale holds, the relation between the threshold value of revenue per hectare and the amount of land cultivated is positive. In addition to that, the relation between the threshold and the amount of land owned is positive in the case of continuous supply of land and negative when there is discontinuous supply of land. The direct consequence is that, in the first case, smaller farms will be more willing to rent land and exercise the option where, in the second case, larger farms will exercise first. The results corroborate the findings of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Option value theory; Farm size; Uncertainty; Irreversibility; Agricultural and Food Policy; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; O13; Q12; Q15; Q18.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/52844
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Optimal Preservation of Agricultural and Environmental Land within a Municipality Under Irreversibility and Uncertainty AgEcon
Howard, Peter H..
Replaced with revised version of paper 07/22/11.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Irreversibility; Spatial-temporal modeling; Value of information; Policy design; Climate change; Agricultural preservation; Environmental conservation; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Political Economy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103639
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Switching to Perennial Energy Crops under Uncertainty and Costly Reversibility AgEcon
Song, Feng; Zhao, Jinhua; Swinton, Scott M..
We study a farmer’s decision to convert traditional crop land into growing dedicated energy crops, taking in account sunk conversion costs, uncertainties in traditional and energy crop returns, and learning. The optimal decision rules differ significantly from the expected net present value rule, which ignores learning, and from real option models that allow only one way conversions into energy crops. These models also predict drastically different patterns of land conversions into and out of energy crops over time. Using corn-soybean rotations and switchgrass as examples, we show that the model predictions are sensitive to assumptions about stochastic processes of the returns. Government policies might have unintended consequences: subsidizing conversion...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Real options; Irreversibility; Sunk costs; Land conversion; Biofuel; Cellulosic biomass; Dynamic modeling; Stochastic process; Biofuel policy; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q42; Q24.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56195
Registros recuperados: 9
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