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ACRE: A Revenue-Based Alternative to Price-Based Commodity Payment Programs AgEcon
Cooper, Joseph C..
This paper develops a stochastic model for estimating the probability density function of the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE), a revenue-based commodity support payment that is offered under the 2008 Farm Act as an alternative to the traditional suite of price-based commodity payments, that is, marketing loan benefits and counter-cyclical payments. We minimize the potential for miss-specification bias in the model by using nonparametric and semi-nonparametric approaches as specification checks in the model. Our simulation results show that adding ACRE revenue payments to gross revenue reduced the downside risk in revenue for corn, wheat, and soybean farmers in 2009 in the four locations examined, with reductions ranging from 4% to 25%. Integrating...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Domestic support; Average crop revenue election; Loan deficiency payments; Counter-cyclical payments; Revenue; Price; Corn; Yield; Pairs bootstrap; Kernel density; Semi-nonparametric; Combinatorial optimization; Negative exponential utility function; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49180
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ANALYSIS OF THE U.S. COMMODITY LOAN PROGRAM WITH MARKETING LOAN PROVISIONS AgEcon
Westcott, Paul C.; Price, J. Michael.
Over the next several years, crop prices are projected to be below to slightly above commodity loan rates. As a result, marketing loan benefits to farmers, in the form of loan deficiency payments and marketing loan gains from the commodity loan program, are likely to continue to be sizeable. The level of realized per-unit revenues facilitated by marketing loans exceeds commodity loan rates, thereby raising expected net returns to farmers. Model simulations show that the loan program can raise total acreage planted to major field crops, generally increasing levels of domestic use and exports while lowering crop prices. Cross-commodity effects of supply response to relative returns (including marketing loan benefits), however, result in acreage shifts among...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Commodity loans; Marketing loans; Nonrecourse loans; Loan deficiency payments; Price support; Commodity programs; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34035
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Effects of Federal Risk Management Programs on Optimal Acreage Allocation and Nitrogen Use in a Texas Cotton-Sorghum System AgEcon
Seo, Sangtaek; Mitchell, Paul D.; Leatham, David J..
We analyze the effects of crop insurance and the Marketing Loan Program on optimal nitrogen use and acreage allocation for a case cotton-sorghum farm in Texas. A mathematical programming model is used to solve for the optimal nitrogen fertilizer rate, crop acreage allocation, coverage level, and price election factor, along with participation in the crop insurance and the Marketing Loan Program for both crops. Results show that depending on the crop and farmer risk aversion, these federal risk management programs increase or decrease optimal fertilizer rates-6% to 3%, increase optimal cotton acreage 94% to 144%, and decrease sorghum acres up to 50%.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Extensive margin; Intensive margin; Loan deficiency payments; Revenue insurance; Q12; Q18.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43503
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GENETICALLY MODIFIED CROP INNOVATIONS AND PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION: TRADE AND WELFARE EFFECTS IN THE SOYBEAN COMPLEX AgEcon
Sobolevsky, Andrei; Moschini, GianCarlo; Lapan, Harvey E..
We develop a new partial equilibrium, four-region world trade model for the soybean complex comprising soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal. In the model, some consumers view genetically modified Roundup Ready (RR) soybeans and products as weakly inferior to conventional ones; the RR seed is patented and sold worldwide by a U.S. firm; and producers employ a costly segregation technology to separate conventional and biotech products in the supply chain. The calibrated model is solved for equilibrium prices, quantities, production patterns, trade flows, and welfare changes under different assumptions regarding regional government's production and trade policies, differentiated consumer tastes, and several other demand and supply parameters. Incomplete...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Biotechnology; Differentiated demand; Food labeling; Genetically modified products; Identity preservation; Innovations; Intellectual property rights; International trade; Loan deficiency payments; Market failure; Monopoly; Roundup Ready soybeans; Crop Production/Industries; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18348
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Prediction of Loan Deficiency Payments AgEcon
Cooper, Joseph C.; Plato, Gerald E..
This paper develops a stochastic model for estimating potential loan deficiency payments to U.S. corn producers in a discrete-dynamic context. We minimize the potential for misspecification bias by using nonparametric and semi-nonparametric approaches as specification checks in the model. The model permits the forecast at planting time of the resulting empirical distribution of LDP payments for that crop year. Using this model, the paper examines the sensitivity of this distribution to changes in expected price levels.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Domestic support; Loan deficiency payments; Marketing loan benefits; Corn; Yield; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9717
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