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A Trend Deduction Model of Fluctuating Oil Prices AgEcon
Xu, Haiyan; Zhang, ZhongXiang.
Crude oil prices have been fluctuating over time and by a large range. It is the disorganization of oil price series that makes it difficult to deduce the changing trends of oil prices in the middle- and long-terms and predict their price levels in the short-term. Following a price-state classification and state transition analysis of changing oil prices from January 2004 to April 2010, this paper first verifies that the observed crude oil price series during the soaring period follow a Markov Chain. Next, the paper deduces the changing trends of oil prices by the limit probability of a Markov Chain. We then undertake a probability distribution analysis and find that the oil price series have a log-normality distribution. On this basis, we integrate the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Oil Price; Log-normality Distribution; Limit Probability of a Markov Chain; Trend Deduction Model; OPEC; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q41; Q47; C12; C49; F01; O13.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/101300
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Agricultural Impacts of Biofuels Production AgEcon
Walsh, Marie E.; Torre Ugarte, Daniel de la; English, Burton C.; Jensen, Kimberly L.; Hellwinckel, Chad M.; Menard, R. Jamey; Nelson, Richard G..
Analysis of the potential to supply 25% of projected 2025 U.S. transportation fuels indicates sufficient biomass resources are available to meet increased demand while simultaneously meeting food, feed, and export needs. Corn and soybeans continue to be important feedstocks for ethanol and biodiesel production, but cellulose feedstocks (agricultural crop residues, energy crops such as switchgrass, and forestry residues) will play a major role. Farm income increases, mostly because of higher crop prices. Increased crop prices increase the cost of producing biofuels.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Biodiesel; Biofuels; Biomass; Cellulose feedstocks; Crop residues; Ethanol; Forest residues; Switchgrass; Agribusiness; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; O11; Q11; Q41.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6514
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An Evaluation of Overseas Oil Investment Projects under Uncertainty Using a Real Options Based Simulation Model AgEcon
Zhu, Lei; Zhang, ZhongXiang; Fan, Ying.
This paper applies real options theory to establish an overseas oil investment evaluation model that is based on Monte Carlo simulation and is solved by the Least Squares Monte-Carlo method. To better reflect the reality of overseas oil investment, our model has incorporated not only the uncertainties of oil price and investment cost but also the uncertainties of exchange rate and investment environment. These unique features have enabled our model to be best equipped to evaluate the value of oil overseas investment projects of three oil field sizes (large, medium, small) and under different resource tax systems (royalty tax and production sharing contracts). In our empirical setting, we have selected China as an investor country and Indonesia as an...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Overseas Oil Investment; Project Value; Real Options; Least Squares Monte-Carlo; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q41; Q43; Q48; G31; O13; O22; C63.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119106
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Carbon Mitigation Costs for the Commercial Sector: Discrete-Continuous Choice Analysis of Multifuel Energy Demand AgEcon
Newell, Richard G.; Pizer, William A..
We estimate a carbon mitigation cost curve for the U.S. commercial sector based on econometric estimation of the responsiveness of fuel demand and equipment choices to energy price changes. The model econometrically estimates fuel demand conditional on fuel choice, which is characterized by a multinomial logit model. Separate estimation of end uses (e.g., heating, cooking) using the 1995 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey allows for exceptionally detailed estimation of price responsiveness disaggregated by end use and fuel type. We then construct aggregate long-run elasticities, by fuel type, through a series of simulations; own-price elasticities range from -0.9 for district heat services to -2.9 for fuel oil. The simulations form the basis of...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Commercial energy demand; Carbon policy; Climate change; Discrete choice; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q28; Q48; Q41; C35; C15.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10625
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CDM Baseline Construction for Vietnam National Electricity Grid AgEcon
Tuyen, Tran Minh; Michaelowa, Axel.
For projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), a baseline has to be set to allow calculation of the greenhouse gas emissions reductions achieved. An important obstacle to CDM project development is the lack of data for baseline definition; often project developers do not have access to data and therefore incur high transaction costs to collect them. The government of Vietnam has set up all necessary institutions for CDM, wants to promote CDM projects and thus is interested to reduce transaction costs. We calculate emission factors of the Vietnam electricity grid according to the rules defined by the CDM Executive Board for small scale projects and for large renewable electricity generation projects. The emission factors lie between 365 and 899 g...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: CDM; Baseline; Electricity generation; Vietnam; Public Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; D62; F18; Q25; Q41.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26393
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Combining Climate and Energy Policies: Synergies or Antagonism? Modeling interactions with energy efficiency instruments AgEcon
Lecuyer, Oskar; Bibas, Ruben.
In addition to the already present Climate and Energy package, the European Union (EU) plans to include a binding target to reduce energy consumption. We analyze the rationales the EU invokes to justify such an overlapping and develop a minimal common framework to study interactions arising from the combination of instruments reducing emissions, promoting renewable energy (RE) production and reducing energy demand through energy efficiency (EE) investments. We find that although all instruments tend to reduce emissions and a price on carbon tends to give the right incentives for RE and EE too, the combination of more than one instrument leads to significant antagonisms regarding major objectives of the policy package. The model allows to show in a single...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Renewable Energy; Energy Efficiency; Energy Policy; Climate Policy; Policy Interaction; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q28; Q41; Q48; Q58.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120049
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Copenhagen and Beyond: Reflections on China’s Stance and Responses AgEcon
Zhang, ZhongXiang.
China had been singled out by Western politicians and media for dragging its feet on international climate negotiations at Copenhagen, the accusations previously always targeted on the U.S. To put such a criticism into perspective, this paper provides some reflections on China’s stance and reactions at Copenhagen. While China’s reactions are generally well rooted because of realities at home, some reactions could have been handled more effectively for a better image of China. The paper also addresses the reliability of China’s statistics on energy and GDP, the issue crucial to the reliability of China’s carbon intensity commitments. The paper discusses flaws in current international climate negotiations and closes with my suggestion that international...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Copenhagen Climate Negotiations; Emissions Reductions; Carbon Intensity Target; Binding Emissions Caps; Statistics on Energy and GDP; Coal and Energy Consumption; China; USA; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q41; Q43; Q48; Q52; Q54; Q58; O53.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92836
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Demand and price volatility: rational habits in international gasoline demand AgEcon
Scott, K. Rebecca.
The combination of habits and a forward outlook suggests that consumers will be sensitive not just to prices but to price dynamics. In particular, rational habits models suggest 1. that price volatility and uncertainty will reduce demand for a habit-forming good and 2. that such volatility will dampen demand’s responsiveness to price. These two implications can be tested by augmenting a traditional partial-adjustment or error-correction model of demand. I apply this augmented model to data on gasoline consumption, as rational habits provide a succinct representation for the investment and behavioral decisions that determine gasoline usage. The trade-o¤s among 2SLS, system GMM, and pooled mean group (PMG) estimators are considered, and my preferred PMG...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Gasoline demand; Rational habits; Price elasticity; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; H30; Q40; Q41; Q50; R40.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122891
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Demand and price volatility: rational habits in international gasoline demand AgEcon
Scott, K. Rebecca.
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Gasoline demand; Rational habits; Price elasticity; Environmental Economics and Policy; Public Economics; H30; Q40; Q41; Q50; R40.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121931
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Discussion: Revisiting Macroeconomic Linkages to Agriculture: The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables and the Oil Sector on Farm Prices and Income AgEcon
Penson, John B., Jr..
Periodically, events occur in the domestic and global economies that remind agricultural economists that macroeconomics matter. This was evident in the early 1980s when the Federal Reserve responded to double-digit inflation by driving interest rates to post–World War II period highs. The Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s, rising oil prices this past decade, and current stress in domestic and overseas financial markets serve to remind us again that externalities can have an effect on the economic performance and financial strength of U.S. agriculture. These effects are transmitted through interest rates, inflation, unemployment, real gross domestic product, and exchange rates.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Macroeconomics; Linkages; Net farm income; Exchange rates; Interest rates; Real GDP; Agribusiness; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Political Economy; Public Economics; E31; E44; Q41; Q43.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92583
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Dynamic Adjustment of U.S. Agriculture to Energy Price Changes AgEcon
Lambert, David K.; Gong, Jian.
Energy prices increased significantly following the first energy price shock of 1973. Agricultural producers found few short run substitution possibilities as relative factor prices changed. Inelastic demands resulted in total expenditures on energy inputs that have closely followed energy price changes over time. A dynamic cost function model is estimated to derive short and long run adjustments within U.S. agriculture between 1948 and 2002 to changes in relative input prices. The objective is to measure the degree of farm responsiveness to energy price changes and if this responsiveness has changed over time. Findings support inelastic demands for all farm inputs. Statistical results support moderate increases in responses to energy and other input price...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Dynamic cost function; Energy prices; U.S. agriculture; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; International Development; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Q11; Q41.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90666
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Economic Competitiveness of Bioenergy Production and Effects on Agriculture of the Southern Region AgEcon
English, Burton C.; Torre Ugarte, Daniel de la; Walsh, Marie E.; Hellwinckel, Chad M.; Menard, R. Jamey.
The economic competitiveness of biobased industries is discussed by comparing the South relative to other regions of the United States and biomass as a feedstock source relative to fossil fuels such as coal and petroleum. An estimate of the biomass resource base is provided. Estimated changes in the agricultural sector over time resulting from the development of a large-scale biobased industry are reported, and a study on the potential to produce electricity from biomass compared with coal in the southern United States is reviewed. A biobased industry can increase net farm income and enhance economics development and job creation.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Biobased industries; Biomass; Cofire; Energy; Ethanol; Lignocellulosic; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q42; Q41; R15; Q11.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43775
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Energy Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa AgEcon
Bazilian, Morgan; Nussbaumer, Patrick; Rogner, Hans-Holger; Brew-Hammond, Abeeku; Foster, Vivien; Kammen, Daniel M.; Pachauri, Shonali; Eric, Williams; Howells, Mark; Niyongabo, Philippe; Musaba, Lawrence; O Gallachoir, Brian; Radka, Mark.
In order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several ‘high-level’, transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Energy Access; Power System Planning; Sub-Saharan Africa; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C1; Q41; Q47.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116904
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Energy and Economic Development: An Assessment of the State of Knowledge AgEcon
Toman, Michael; Jemelkova, Barbora.
Energy development is an integral part of enhanced economic development. The fact that expanded provision and use of energy services is strongly associated with economic development leaves open how important energy is as a causal factor in economic development, however; and energy development competes with other opportunities for scarce capital and opportunities for policy and institutional reform. In this paper we first give a brief conceptual discussion that seeks to identify the channels through which increased availability of energy services might be a key to stimulating economic development along different stages of the development process. We then examine some empirical work to see what evidence it might provide regarding possible channels of...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Energy; Economic development; Productivity; Poverty alleviation; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q41; Q43.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10685
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Households’ WTP for the Reliability of Gas Supply AgEcon
Chou, Wan-Jung; Bigano, Andrea; Hunt, Alistair; La Branche, Stephane; Markandya, Anil; Pierfederici, Roberta.
The security of natural gas supply is an important issue for all EU countries due to the region’s heavy dependence on imported supply sources and in light of energy demand for gas that is continuously increasing. Discussions have emphasised strategies for securing the supply at the macro level, e.g. diversification in supply sources, increase in storage capacity, etc. By contrast, consumers’ demand for the reliability of gas supply is rarely investigated. Hence this study was conducted to examine the economic implications associated with the security of gas supply directly to domestic consumers. Based on the choice experiment approach, household surveys were conducted in France, Italy and the UK. The results confirmed that the degree of the economic impact...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Energy Security; Gas Supply; Households; Willingness to Pay; Choice Experiment; EU; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C35; C83; C93; D12; Q41.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115740
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Incentives Matter: Assessing Biofuel Policies in the South AgEcon
Miller, J. Corey; Coble, Keith H..
As a result of the increase in the real cost of fossil fuel-based energy in recent years, federal and state governments have taken a more active role in energy policy by creating incentives to develop alternative sources of energy, including biofuels. However, policymakers often become focused on the specific type of energy and not the energy services consumers ultimately value. The lack of recognition of energy as a commodity results in policies that ignore the characteristics of the associated markets: easy entry and exit, no barriers to entry, and sensitivity to changes in supply and demand. Consequently, energy industries may fail to arise because entrepreneurs must be able to account for all costs and earn—at a minimum—a competitive return on the...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Alternative energy; Biofuels; Energy policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q41; Q42; Q48.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/113534
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Industrial Coal Demand in China: A Provincial Analysis AgEcon
Cattaneo, Cristina; Manera, Matteo; Scarpa, Elisa.
In recent years, concerns regarding the environmental implications of the rising coal demand have induced considerable efforts to generate long-term forecasts of China’s energy requirements. Nevertheless, none of the previous empirical studies on energy demand for China has tackled the issue of modelling coal demand in China at provincial level. The aim of this paper is to fill this gap. In particular, we model and forecast the Chinese demand for coal using time series data disaggregated by provinces. Moreover, not only does our analysis account for heterogeneity among provinces, but also, given the nature of the data, it captures the presence of spatial autocorrelation among provinces using a spatial econometric model. A fixed effects spatial lag model...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Energy demand; Coal demand; China; Spatial econometrics; Panel data; Forecasting; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C23; E6; Q31; Q41.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44425
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Inflationary Effect of Oil-Price Shocks in an Imperfect Market: A Partial Transmission Input-output Analysis AgEcon
Wu, Libo; Li, Jing; Zhang, ZhongXiang.
This paper aims to examine the impacts of oil-price shocks on China’s price levels. To that end, we develop a partial transmission input-output model that captures the uniqueness of the Chinese market. We hypothesize and simulate price control, market factors and technology substitution - the three main factors that restrict the functioning of a price pass-through mechanism during oil-price shocks. Using the models of both China and the U.S., we separate the impact of price control from those of other factors leading to China’s price stickiness under oil-price shocks. The results show a sharp contrast between China and the U.S., with price control in China significantly preventing oil-price shocks from spreading into its domestic inflation, especially in...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Oil-price Shocks; Price Transmission; Price Control; Input-output Analysis; Inflation; Industrial Structure; China; The United States; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q43; Q41; Q48; O13; O53; P22; E31.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/102507
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Information Programs for Technology Adoption: The Case of Energy-Efficiency Audits AgEcon
Anderson, Soren T.; Newell, Richard G..
We analyze technology adoption decisions of manufacturers in response to energy audits provided by Department of Energy Industrial Assessment Centers. Using fixed effects logit estimation to control for unobserved plant characteristics, we find that plants respond as expected to financial costs and benefits, though there are unmeasured project-related factors that also influence investment decisions. Revealed behavior of plants suggests that most require a payback of 15 months or less as their investment threshold, corresponding to an 80% or greater hurdle rate. This is consistent with survey results for stated investment thresholds, suggesting that these programs do not lower hurdle rates, as some suggest. Plants reject about half of recommended projects;...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Energy efficiency; Information; Technology adoption; Energy audits; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Q41; Q48; O33; O38.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10916
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Investment in Electricity Transmission and Ancillary Environmental Benefits AgEcon
Bloyd, Cary; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Burtraw, Dallas.
Planning of the electricity transmission system generally focuses on the pros and cons of providing generation close to the source of the power demand versus remote generation linked via the transmission system. Recent electricity supply problems in the western United States have renewed interest in the role of transmission in assuring the reliability of electricity supply. Recently, the Western Governors' Association led the development of a planning exercise that examined the tradeoffs over the next 10 years between locating new natural gas powered generation close to the load centers versus new coal, wind, hydro, and geothermal generation in remote areas. Although the analysis concentrated on the direct system costs, the choice of new generation will...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Electricity; Transmission; Air pollution; Ancillary benefits; Nitrogen oxides; Sulfur dioxide; Carbon dioxide; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; L94; Q25; Q41.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10519
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