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Registros recuperados: 58
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A Competing Risks Model of Land Use Change AgEcon
Towe, Charles A..
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Dependent competing risks; Land conversion; Real options; Hazard models; Preservation easements; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103725
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A MODEL OF ENTRY-EXIT DECISIONS AND CAPACITY CHOICE UNDER DEMAND UNCERTAINTY AgEcon
Isik, Murat; Coble, Keith H.; Hudson, Darren; House, Lisa.
Many investment decisions of agribusiness firms such as when to invest in an emerging market or whether to expand the capacity of the firm involve irreversible investment and uncertainty about demand, cost or competition. This paper uses an option-value model to examine the factors affecting an agribusiness firm's decision whether and how much to invest in an emerging market under demand uncertainty. Demand uncertainty and irreversibility of investment make investment less desirable than the net present value (NPV) rule indicates. The inactive firm is more reluctant to enter the market when it takes into account demand uncertainty because it preserves the opportunity of making a better investment later. The active firm is more reluctant to abandon the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agribusiness decision-making; Demand uncertainty; Entry-exit decisions; Net present value; Real options; Remote sensing; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19797
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A Real Options Approach to Forest-Management Decision Making to Protect Caribou under the Threat of Extinction Ecology and Society
Morgan, Don G.; British Columbia Ministry of Forests and Range; Don.Morgan@gov.bc.ca.
Uncertainty is a dominant feature of decision making in forestry and wildlife management. Aggravating this challenge is the irreversibility of some decisions, resulting in the loss of economic opportunities or the extirpation of wildlife populations. We adapted the real options approach from economic theory to develop a methodology to evaluate a resource management decision to stop timber harvesting when a woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) population becomes threatened with extinction. In our study area of central Labrador, Canada, both caribou and timber harvesting are valued ecosystem services. By using a decision rule, which incorporates future developments, the real options approach provides a technique to incorporate ecological and social...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Decision support; Real options; Forest planning; Wildlife management; Caribou; Labrador.
Ano: 2008
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A real-options analysis of wine grape farming in north west Victoria AgEcon
Seyoum, Emayenesh; Chan, Chris.
This paper reports a use of a real-options valuation methodology to analyse wine grape farm investment under price and yield uncertainty. Revenue levels to incentivise entry and exit were calculated for three different sizes of wine grape farms in North West Victoria. The modelling identified lower exit and higher entry triggers than indicated by conventional net present value calculation. The wide gap of estimated indeterminacy in farm investment highlights the intertwined influence of numerous economic factors — cost structure, economies of scale, market volatility, transaction costs, and sunk and salvaged asset valuation. Drawing on these determinants of farm investment and disinvestment, the paper discusses the role of investment incentives in...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Real options; Entry and exit; Wine grape; North West Victoria; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124446
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Advanced Biofuel Production in Louisiana Sugar Mills: an Application of Real Options Analysis AgEcon
Darby, Paul M.; Mark, Tyler B.; Detre, Joshua D.; Salassi, Michael E..
In order to more fully study the risks and uncertainty involved in cellulosic ethanol production, we examine a simulated plant in South Louisiana using Real Options Analysis
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Real options; Risk; Uncertainty; Cellulosic ethanol; Energy cane; Sorghum; Bagasse; Simulation; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Production Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q42; Q14; Q16; D81; G31.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103747
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Alternative Land Use Policies: Real Options with Costly Reversibility AgEcon
Song, Feng; Zhao, Jinhua; Swinton, Scott M..
This paper adopts a real options framework to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of four types of subsidies that aim to encourage a socially desirable land use under return uncertainties and costly reversibility of land use change. We first present a land conversion model to show how the subsidies that are expected net present value (ENPV) equivalent can change a representative farmer’s optimal land conversion rules differently for converting land into an alternative use as well as converting out of it. This is because these subsidies affect the land conversion costs, land return level and uncertainty differently. Then in the context of encouraging energy crop production, we compare the probabilities of inducing the representative farmer to convert land from...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Monte Carlo simulations; Real options; Agricultural subsidies; Cost-effectiveness; Two-way land conversion; Agricultural and Food Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q24; Q48.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61510
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An economic valuation of a biotechnology R&D project in a developing economy Electron. J. Biotechnol.
Erbas,Bahar Celikkol; Memis,Selin Arslanhan.
Background: Biotechnology complements technological developments in main sectors of economies, such as health, energy, and agriculture, and thus contributes to economic development. It provides solutions to the problems that are frequently faced in developing economies, such as resource constraints, lower productivity and environmental concerns. In order to benefit from biotechnology, its associated markets need to develop and function well to support the developments and transactions of intangible assets, such as technology transfers, license agreements and research and development joint ventures. Economic valuation of the intangible assets is necessary for the development and functioning of these markets. It provides better understanding of value...
Tipo: Journal article Palavras-chave: Biotechnology sector; Developing economies; Real options; R&D project valuation; Turkey.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0717-34582012000300001
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An Empirical Examination of Real Options and the Timing of Land Conversions AgEcon
Towe, Charles A.; Nickerson, Cynthia J.; Bockstael, Nancy E..
Many studies have examined the effects of land use regulations on land prices and urban spatial form. Increasingly, jurisdictions have adopted incentive based mechanisms, such as purchase of development rights (PDR) programs, to manage the pace and pattern of urban growth and the conversion of agricultural land. PDR programs provide a third option to landowners in urbanizing areas: in addition to deciding whether to develop or not, landowners can decide whether to preserve their land. To our knowledge no studies have explored how the existence of an option to participate in a PDR program affects landowners' development decisions. This research provides empirical evidence of a previously untested prediction of real options theory: that additional...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agricultural preservation programs; Real options; Land conversion; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19125
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Assessing agricultural policy incentives for Greek organic agriculture: A Real options approach AgEcon
Tzouramani, Irene; Sintori, Alexandra; Liontakis, Angelos E.; Alexopoulos, George.
The adoption of organic agriculture or livestock involves risk and uncertainty, and to overcome this, well designed schemes are required. Are the current support measures attractive for farmers who wish to convert to organic? At first, this study tries to assess the optimal investment trigger for a new comer into organic dairy sheep farming system and secondly, to evaluate the investment profitability of an existing organic farmer in his attempt to improve his farm. Results indicate that the framework of real options analysis is an appropriate form of analysis if the question of investment profitability is examined under risk and uncertainty and the role of economic subsidies offered to organic farmers is assessed.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Organic agriculture; Dairy sheep farming; Real options; Agriculture policy; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61096
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Assessing economic incentives for dairy sheep farmers: A real options approach AgEcon
Tzouramani, Irene; Sintori, Alexandra; Liontakis, Angelos E.; Alexopoulos, George.
New policy measures have been introduced to transform Greece’s agriculture into a more modern and environmentally friendly agriculture. Adopting new technology and environmentally friendly production systems involves risk and uncertainty, which in turn stress the need for well designed policy schemes. This study attempts to examine the effects of income variability upon the decision to adopt new technology and environmentally friendly production systems by introducing the real options analysis to dairy sheep farming in Greece. The real options procedure revealed that the investment in new technology in dairy sheep farms under organic scheme is profitable. Attractive economic incentives that are offered by the applied agricultural policy to young farmers...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Organic sheep farming; Real options; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43964
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Assessing the impact of different rural development policy design options on the adoption of innovation across five case studies in EU AgEcon
Bartolini, Fabio; Floridi, Matteo; Latruffe, Laure; Majewski, Edward; Nikolov, Dimitre; Polman, Nico B.P.; Viaggi, Davide.
Innovation and new technology adoption represent two central elements for the enterprise and industry development process in agriculture. The objective of the paper is to provide an ex-ante analysis of the effectiveness of alternative policy design options concerning the RDP measures intended to provide incentives for investment/innovation adoption in five case study areas across Europe. The model implemented is based on a real option approach that includes investment irreversibility and stochasticity in SFP. The results show the relevance of uncertainty in determining the timing of adoption and emphasise the importance of predictability as a major component of policy design.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Real options; Innovation; Rural development policy; Single farm payments; Uncertainty; Community/Rural/Urban Development.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94907
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Der Wechsel vom konventionellen zum ökologischen Landbau: Eine investitionstheoretische Betrachtung AgEcon
Odening, Martin; Musshoff, Oliver; Utesch, Volker.
The objective of this paper is to explore the potential of the real options approach for analyzing farmers’ choice to switch from conventional to organic farming. Understanding the determinants of this decision is relevant in particular for agricultural policy makers when predicting the response of farmers to support programs. After a brief review of the existing literature on barriers to the adoption of organic farming a theoretical model is presented that allows one to incorporate two main features of the adoption decision, namely irreversibility and uncertainty of the returns. The real options model quantifies investment multiples that trigger the adoption of organic farming. Compared with neoclassical models it suggests an inertia of the respective...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Organic farming; Real options; Switching regression; Hysteresis; Farm Management.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97451
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Determinants of U.S. Textile and Apparel Trade AgEcon
Amponsah, William A.; Ofori-Boadu, Victor.
A gravity model using panel data is applied to determine factors affecting textiles and apparel trade flows into the United States. The study confirms that a nation's aggregate output and per unit productivity serve as important determinants of textiles and apparel trade into the U.S., and the exporting country's depreciating exchange rate as well as its lower prices relative to U.S. prices for textiles and apparel play an important role in determining textiles and apparel trade flows to the U.S. market. Since the WTO's multilateral trade restraining policies of the multi-fibre arrangement (MFA) is found to have slowed down imports, its abrogation in 2005 should lead to greater textiles and apparel imports to the U.S.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Brand equity; Brand valuation; Real options; Food firms; Growth option value; Agribusiness; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8191
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Did the Economic Conditions for Bt-maize in the EU Improve from 1995 to 2004? A MISTICs Perspective. AgEcon
Scatasta, Sara; Wesseler, Justus; Demont, Matty.
The debate about the "quasi" moratorium on the release of GMOs in the European Union is on going. One of the major arguments that were put forward to delay the release of new traits was the one for more information. In this contribution we compare the situation for Bt-maize from the 1995 and 2004 perspective. The 2004 perspective differentiate between two scenarios: one without the CAP reform and one including the CAP reform. For the comparison we use an ex-ante assessment model based on real option theory that explicitly considers the irreversible costs and benefits of the technology. As empirical information about possible irreversible costs is scarce we identify the maximum incremental social tolerable irreversible costs, MISTICs, for Bt-maize, a...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Bt-maize; Irreversibility; Real options; Uncertainty; Crop Production/Industries; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25245
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Does vertical integration reduce investment reluctance in production chains? An agent-based real options approach AgEcon
Balmann, Alfons; Musshoff, Oliver; Larsen, Karin.
This paper uses an agent-based real options approach to analyze whether stronger vertical integration reduces investment reluctance in pork production. A competitive model in which firms identify optimal investment strategies by using genetic algorithms is developed. Two production systems are compared: a perfectly integrated system and a system in which firms produce either the intermediate product (piglets) or the final product (pork). Simulations show that the spot market solution and the perfectly integrated system lead to a very similar production dynamics even with limited information on production capacities. The results suggest that, from a pure real options perspective, spot markets are not significantly inferior to perfectly integrated supply...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Real options; Supply chain; Agent-based models; Genetic algorithms; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Productivity Analysis.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59521
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Economic Hysteresis in Variety Selection AgEcon
Richards, Timothy J.; Green, Gareth P..
Investing in a new perennial crop variety involves an irreversible commitment of capital and generates an uncertain return stream. As a result, the decision to adopt a new variety includes a significant real option value. Waiting for returns to rise above this real option causes a delay in adoption because of economic hysteresis. This study tests for hysteresis in the adoption of wine grape varieties using a sample of district-level data from the state of California. The empirical results show a significant hysteretic effect in wine grape investment, which might be reduced by activities that smooth earnings over time.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: California; Grapes; Hysteresis; Investment; Jump diffusion; Real options; Variety adoption; Wine; Q14; Q11; D92; C34.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37310
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Economic Incentives for Entry and Exit in Gum Arabic Agroforestry System in Sudan AgEcon
Rahim, Afaf H.; van Ierland, Ekko C.; Wesseler, Justus.
The gum tree (Acacia senegal) in the Sahel-Sudan zone has many environmental benign functions. An important function is to control desertification. In this paper we analyze farmers' economic incentives to preserve the existing gum trees and their incentives to create new plantations using a real options approach. Results indicate that agricultural crops provide higher economic benefits as compared to gum agroforestry system. However, on the one hand, as gum arabic is produced during the dry period and land is abundant, there are low incentives for deforestation. Instead, farmers' tend to leave the land idle and let the tree growing. On the other hand, our results suggest that an increase in the prices of gum arabic of about 330 per cent is needed to induce...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Gum arabic; Deforestation; Entry and exit; Real options; Sudan; Crop Production/Industries; D4; N5; O13; Q12; Q23.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25720
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Employing Real Options Methodology for Decision Making in Greenhouse Technology AgEcon
Tzouramani, Irene; Mattas, Konstadinos.
Latest developments in investment analysis offer a number of valuable insights into how to evaluate investment opportunities encountering the weaknesses of net present value criterion. More specific, irreversibility, uncertainty and the choice of timing are conditions that net present value does not include but they alter the investment decision in critical way. Employing contingent claims analysis in tangible investments several assumptions made by discount cash flow method are concerned and better assessment results can be derived. In this work, an attempt is made to apply real options methodology in agricultural investments. Many agricultural investors face a growing uncertainty environment with high sunk investments and net present value criterion has...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Real options; Irreversibility; Option value; Agriculture; Investment; Policy; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24835
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Entry of Alternative Fuels in a Volatile U.S. Gasoline Market AgEcon
Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Duffield, James A.; Wetzstein, Michael E..
Dramatic increases in levels and volatility of gasoline prices observed in recent years may create market incentives for adoption of alternative fuels characterized by lower price volatility. This hypothesis is investigated by applying the real-options pricing approach to develop optimal thresholds for switching from conventional gasoline to alternative fuels such as ethanol blends. The main result of the paper is that given the historical price patterns of conventional gasoline and ethanol, switching to ethanol blends is an economically sound decision provided this does not decrease efficiency of the vehicle. Analysis of data subsamples during the periods of higher volatility of gasoline prices (Gulf War and War on Terrorism) provides even stronger...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Alternative fuels; Decision making under uncertainty; Ethanol; Price volatility; Real options; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10144
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Estimation of a Backward-Bending Investment Demand Function for Agribusiness Firms AgEcon
Kropp, Jaclyn D.; Power, Gabriel J..
We investigate irreversible investment behavior under uncertainty of payoffs using U.S. firm-level panel data. We estimate the relationship between the firm’s investment to capital ratio and the interest rate, while controlling for investment opportunities, real option values, uncertainty and profitability. The results indicate the investment demand curve is a backward-bending function of the interest rate; at low interest rates, an increase in the interest rate leads to increased investment by increasing the cost of postponing investment. Firm investment behavior is also consistent with real options behavior. The investment behavior of agribusiness firms is significantly different from firms in other sectors.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Investment demand; Irreversible investment; Real options; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics; D81; D92; Q13.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61293
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