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A conceptual model to describe heat stress in dairy cows from actual to questionable loops Acta Agron. (Palmira)
Molina Benavides,Raúl Andrés; Sánchez Guerrero,Hugo; Atzori,Alberto Stanislao.
Abstract Thermal environment is recognized to be one the most important ecological factor to determine domestic animal growth, development and productivity for direct and indirect effects on its physiology and behavior. Despite having specific and individual adaptation, is very common, within seasonal or diurnal temperature variations, animals deal with situations outside their thermal comfort zone. Due to heat stress, dairy cows reduce milk production and fertility, and therefore, had achieved an increasing in metabolic disorders incidence, causing low revenues to farm in short and medium periods. Due to world climate change more impact of the meteorological variables on animal responses is expected for the future. This study aimed to describe and...
Tipo: Journal article Palavras-chave: Climate change; Grazing; Livestock production systems; Milk production; System dynamics; Temperature.
Ano: 2018 URL: http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0120-28122018000100059
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A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT: THE TOPMARD CORE MODEL AgEcon
Johnson, Thomas G.; Bryden, John Marshall; Refsgaard, Karen; Alva Lizarraga, Sara.
The goal of the TOPMARD project is to develop a model of agriculture and rural development to better understand the agronomic, ecological, economic and social dimensions of rural regions. The resulting model, (Policy Model of Multifunctional Agriculture and Rural Development) was built collaboratively and hierarchically by the research teams from the 11 countries. The model features eight subsectors (Land, Agriculture, Tourism, Region, Human Resources, Non-commodities, Capital, and Quality of Life). Imbedded in the model are a complete dynamic input-output model, and an agecohort education demographic model. The model has both supply-side and demand-side drivers. Land use is the key supply-side driver. Land use, coupled with production system choices,...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Multifunctionality; System dynamics; Policy; Model; Rural development; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6497
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Commodity-based Trade and Market Access for Developing Country Livestock Products: The Case of Beef Exports from Ethiopia AgEcon
Rich, Karl M.; Perry, Brian D.; Kaitibie, Simeon.
While Ethiopia is Africa’s largest livestock producer, sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) barriers and animal diseases have traditionally constrained market access. A system dynamics model examined the feasibility of a proposed SPS certification system under a number of scenarios. Model results indicate that the system may not be viable for beef exports to Middle Eastern markets. However, the binding constraint is high domestic input costs rather than the costs of SPS compliance. Sensitivity analyses reveal that while investments in feed efficiency and animal productivity would enhance Ethiopia’s export competitiveness, the competitive nature of international beef markets may still prevent market access.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: SPS; Livestock; Market access; System dynamics; Ethiopia; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing; Q10; Q13.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53794
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Dinâmica de sistemas aplicada à gestão de recursos hídricos em bacia hidrográfica AgEcon
Vieira, Wilson da Cruz.
The objective of this work was to analyze both the allocation of water among competing demands in a river basin and pricing policies for water. Based on a theoretical model that maximizes the net social benefits from the allocation of water over a finite period of time, it was used the dynamic systems approach to analyze various issues related to water resources management in a river basin, such as sustainability of water resources, and water pricing. The model was applied to the Araguari River Basin, located in the State of Minas Gerais.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: River basin; System dynamics; Water resources; Water pricing; Sustainability; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53856
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Enhancing the Resilience of the Australian National Electricity Market: Taking a Systems Approach in Policy Development Ecology and Society
Newell, Barry; Australian National University Canberra ; barry.newell@anu.edu.au; Marsh, Debborah M; University of Technology Sydney; dmarsh@eng.uts.edu.au; Sharma, Deepak; University of Technology Sydney; Deepak.Sharma@uts.edu.au.
As the complexity and interconnectedness of present-day social-ecological systems become steadily more apparent, there is increasing pressure on governments, policy makers, and managers to take a systems approach to the challenges facing humanity. However, how can this be done in the face of system complexity and uncertainties? In this paper we briefly discuss practical ways that policy makers can take up the systems challenge. We focus on resilience thinking, and the use of influence diagrams, causal-loop diagrams, and system archetypes. As a case study, set in the context of the climate-energy-water nexus, we use some of these system concepts and tools to carry out an initial exploration of factors that can affect the resilience of the Australian...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis Palavras-chave: Australian National Electricity Market; Climate-energy-water nexus; Resilience; System analysis; System dynamics.
Ano: 2011
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Evaluating CAP alternative policy scenarios through a system dynamics approach in rural areas of Greece AgEcon
Efstratoglou, Sophia; Giannakis, Elias; Psaltopoulos, Dimitrios.
Current considerations for the post-2013 CAP create the need for the investigation and evaluation of alternative CAP scenarios and their effects on agriculture, environment and regional development in EU rural areas. To this end, a system-dynamics model is developed and utilized to evaluate the impacts of alternative CAP scenarios in a Greek rural area (prefecture of Trikala). This particular model features four basic subsystems (agriculture, environment, regional economy and human resources) specified and analyzed through a linear programming model, a dynamic input-output model and an age-cohort demographic model, respectively. Four alternative policy scenarios are specified, dealing with possible developments on Pillars 1 and 2. Model simulations produce...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: CAP; Policy impact assessment; Rural development; System dynamics; Agricultural and Food Policy; C61; C67; Q18; R58.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99361
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Modelagem de lotes de produção na eficiência e planejamento de sistemas de ovinos de corte. Repositório Alice
GUIMARÃES, V. P.; BEZERRA, F. G. S.; ALBUQUERQUE, F. H. M. A. R. de; HOLANDA JÚNIOR, E. V.; BOMFIM, M. A. D.; OLIVEIRA, L. E..
No contexto de elevada concorrência e incertezas, o planejamento dos sistemas de produção torna-se, muitas vezes, uma realidade distante e falha, sendo, necessários novos modelos de produção. A modelagem de sistemas de produção apresenta-se, atualmente, como uma possível ferramenta para minimizar essas perdas. Este trabalho objetivou desenvolver um modelo que simulasse os eventos ocorridos em um sistema de produção ovino, em relação ao número de animais e mão-de-obra, para avaliar a utilização de um ou dos lotes de produção. Utilizou-se para tal, o programa Vensim da Ventana Systems®. De acordo com a simulação, a demanda de mão-de-obra no sistema com um lote e com dois, respectivamente, foi de 2,53 e 10,05 horas na maior parte do ciclo e 9,28 e 5,08 horas...
Tipo: Artigo em anais de congresso (ALICE) Palavras-chave: Ovinocultura de corte; System dynamics; Brasil; Ceará; Ovino; Sistema de produção; Modelo matemático; Modelo de Simulação; Planejamento Rural; Custo; Sheep; Farm models; Mathematical models; Animal production.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/handle/doc/533895
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New Methods for Integrated Models of Animal Disease Control AgEcon
Rich, Karl M..
Accurate assessments of the epidemiological and economic impacts of an animal disease require the incorporation of feedbacks between disease spread and production incentives. This paper motivates a new modeling framework that is sensitive to the dynamics of disease, production decisions and incentives, different livestock production systems, and their interaction through the use of an integrated system dynamics framework. Preliminary simulation results are provided to demonstrate proof-of-concept of such an approach, with additional discussion given on extensions and implications of integrated methods.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Animal disease control; Simulation modeling; System dynamics; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9701
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O ciclo pecuário no Brasil: uma análise usando a metodologia da dinâmica de sistemas AgEcon
Braganca, Raissa Carvalho; Bueno, Newton Paulo.
The purpose of the paper was to study if the dynamics of the Brazilian cattle stocks can be better explained by systemic endogenous factors or either by exogenous changes on beef demand. The conclusion, as proposed by the theory of the cattle cycle, was that systemic factors related to the adoption of the stabilization program in 1994 were apparently more important in explaining the stagnation of the Brazilian herd since 2000. The main policy implication of this conclusion is that it seems to have a space for stabilizing de dynamics of the system through adequate public policies. The methodology used was system dynamics which allows to trace the critical feedback loops that drive de cattle cycle and to identify possible leverage points in the system,...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Cattle; System dynamics; Cattle cycle; Commodities; Economic policy; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95069
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RESILIENCE OF SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS IN EUROPEAN RURAL AREAS: THEORY AND PROSPECTS AgEcon
Schouten, Marleen A.H.; van der Heide, Martijn M.; Heijman, Wim J.M..
In today’s world, rural areas are confronted with a spectrum of changes. These changes have multiple characters, varying from changes in ecosystem conditions to socioeconomic impacts, such as food- and financial crises. They present serious problems to rural management and largely affect future perspectives of rural areas. Rural resilience refers to the capacity of a rural region to adapt to changing external circumstances in such a way that a satisfactory standard of living is maintained, while coping with its inherent ecological, economic and social vulnerability. Rural resilience describes how rural areas are affected by external shocks and how it influences system dynamics. This paper further eradicates on this concept, by exploring in detail what the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Resilience; Social-ecological systems; Rural development; Complex adaptive systems; System dynamics; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57343
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Resilience, Social-Ecological Rules, and Environmental Variability in a Two-Species Artisanal Fishery Ecology and Society
Duer-Balkind, Marshall; Department of the Environment, Washington, DC; School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA; marshall@aya.yale.edu; Jacobs, Kasey R.; NOAA Coastal Management Fellow at the Puerto Rico Coastal Zone Management Program, San Juan, PR; School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA; kasey.jacobs@aya.yale.edu; Basurto, Xavier; Duke Marine Lab, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Beaufort, NC, USA; xavier.basurto@duke.edu.
Social-ecological resilience is an increasingly central paradigm for understanding sustainable resource management. In this study, we aimed to better understand the effect of environmental variability on the resilience of fishery systems, and the important role that social institutions and biophysical constraints play. To explore these issues, we built a dynamic model of the pen shell fishery of the indigenous Seri people in the Gulf of California, Mexico. This model included the dynamics of the two dominant species in the fishery (Atrina tuberculosa and Pinna rugosa), several institutional rules that the Seri use, and a number of ecological constraints, including key stochastic variables derived from empirical data. We found that modeling with multiple...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Artisanal fisheries; Common-pool resources; Environmental variability; Gulf of California Mexico; Multi-species; Resilience; Social-ecological systems; Stochasticity; System dynamics.
Ano: 2013
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Simulating Oil Palm Expansion Requires Credible Approaches that Address Real Issues Ecology and Society
Dudley, Richard G; Independent Researcher; richard.dudley@attglobal.net; Sheil, Douglas; CIFOR (Center for International Forestry Research); d.sheil@cgiar.org; Colfer, Carol; CIFOR (Center for International Forestry Research); c.colfer@cgiar.org.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Response Palavras-chave: East Kalimantan; Indonesia; Modeling; Oil palm; System dynamics.
Ano: 2008
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The Financial Value of Champagne Houses in a Cobweb Economy AgEcon
Declerck, Francis; Cloutier, L. Martin.
The objective of the paper is to simulate the corporate value of Champagne makers by taking into account the Champagne market evolution. These measurements are conducted by linking financial debt, performance and valuation to a vertical coordination model of production-consumption within a cobweb economy. The overall model uses the dynamic structure that underlies the strategic interactions amongst grape producers and wine makers. These segments coordinate grape production and trade by forming expectations about final consumption, price and stock risks. The paper examines the dynamics of the financial cash flows and net worth of Champagne houses for the 1977 – 2003 period using system dynamics (SD) modeling principles. The results presented in this paper...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Financial valuation; Vertical coordination; Cobweb economy; System dynamics; Price expectations; Champagne; Wine; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Industrial Organization.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49842
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Uso de dinâmica de sistemas como suporte à decisão em propriedades produtoras de leite: um estudo de caso AgEcon
Avila, William Romell Benevides de; Lirio, Viviani Silva; Santos, Maurinho Luiz dos; Vieira, Wilson da Cruz.
The adequade management is the main factor of success in the milk production activity. In view of this, the objective of this paper was to develop a decision support tool based in system dynamics to be appled to this activity. To perform the simulations with the model they were used data from a representative milk production farm of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The results obtained with simulations showed coherence with settled previously analysis. The system dynamics showed also to be very helpful to get a better understanding of milk production systems and to perform strategic planning.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: System dynamics; Milk production; Strategic planning; Farm Management.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56773
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