| Resumo: |
The international market for luxury goods has almost doubled since 1990, with a worldwide increase of 10% annually. This trade is fuelled by a great deal of legally and illegally exploited wildlife species, putting enormous pressure on many of them, with potentially irreversible consequences. The dramatic decline of sturgeon populations exploited for their caviar, is a good example: all 27 species are threatened and the most coveted are on the verge of extinction. We aim to identify the mechanism responsible for the continued overexploitation of sturgeon species, despite caviar's ever-increasing price and the imminent loss of these species. Here, we demonstrate consumer preference for rarity over intrinsic quality: customers tasting two caviar samples more often chose the one they thought was rare, although both were identical. In a game theory model, we demonstrate that the most rational behaviour is to rush to consume rare species, even though this precipitates their extinction. We conclude that the human predisposition to place exaggerated value on rarity probably drives the entire market for luxury goods from reptile skins to exotic woods. Our findings suggest that allowing low levels of legal trade will exacerbate the arbitrary value of rare species and thereby stimulate demand. Only a total ban on trade from the wild (with very strict controls) combined with strong support for farmed equivalents will protect rare species.
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