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Provedor de dados:  AgEcon
País:  United States
Título:  A Risk Assessment Model on Pine Wood Nematode in the EU
Autores:  Soliman, T.
Hengeveld, G.M.
Robinet, C.
Mourits, Monique
van der Werf, Wopke
Oude Lansink, Alfons G.J.M.
Data:  2011-09-02
Ano:  2011
Palavras-chave:  Risk assessment
Pine wood nematode
Economic analysis
Crop Production/Industries
Risk and Uncertainty
Resumo:  Pine wood nematode, B. xylophilus poses a serious threat for the European forest industry. This study applies a quantitative risk assessment to analyze the risk of pine wood nematode in the EU, by estimating the reduction expected within forestry stock available for wood supply and its downstream roundwood market. Spatial analysis is used to join information on climate suitability, host distribution, pest spread and value of assets. Economic impacts are presented spatially on a NUTS-2 scale based on partial budgeting technique and for the EU as a whole based on partial equilibrium modeling. Results highlight the Southern regions of Europe as high risk areas with a total impact on available forestry stock of 19,000 M € after 20 years of an outbreak and no regulatory control measures. Welfare analysis of the roundwood market, in which its production represents 2,5% of forestry stock, demonstrates the ability of the producers to pass most of the negative impact to the consumers by charging higher prices. Reduction in social welfare estimated at 2,043 M €, where consumer surplus decreased by 2,622 M € and net producer surplus, affected and non-affected producers, increased by 579 M €.
Tipo:  Conference Paper or Presentation
Idioma:  Inglês
Relação:  European Association of Agricultural Economists>2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland
Formato:  13

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